Between March 11 and March 12, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones and missiles across the Middle East, targeting energy infrastructure, airports, military bases, residential areas, diplomatic facilities, and maritime targets in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Oman.
After 12 days of war—and the death of Iran’s supreme leader—the Islamic Republic is under unprecedented pressure. Bill Roggio and Janatan Sayeh assess this initial phase of the war, the gap between Washington and Jerusalem’s goals, and the decisive question still looming over Tehran: will the Iranian people finish the job?
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned Iranian and Iranian-backed militia attacks in Iraq during a March 9 call with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani, as drone and missile strikes continued across the country. Many attacks have targeted the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq, where US forces are based, as well as other US facilities and diplomatic sites. Unclaimed airstrikes have also targeted Iranian-backed militias across Iraq.
The joint US–Israeli campaign is striking Iran’s military and internal security infrastructure across the country while continuing to eliminate senior regime figures. Amid the pressure, the regime installed a new supreme leader, expanded regional attacks while denying responsibility, and intensified repression, as Israel increased outreach to the Iranian public.
Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones and missiles across the Middle East between March 9 and 10, targeting energy infrastructure, airports, military bases, residential areas, and industrial facilities in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan.
Many Americans believed a conflict with the Islamic Republic would be a new war.
But as Bill Roggio and Behnam Ben Taleblu explain, the truth is simpler: this war began in 1979. Now, the question isn’t how the war started. It’s how it ends. Is this a limited war to degrade the Tehran regime — or the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic?
Between March 7 and 8, Iran continued launching drones and missiles across the Persian Gulf, targeting energy infrastructure, airports, military bases, government buildings, and urban areas in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.
Iran and Iranian-backed militias have escalated drone and missile attacks on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, striking sites in Erbil and Sulaimani Governorates and killing at least three people. Many of the attacks are targeting Kurdish Iranian opposition groups.
The US and Israel have cooperated to achieve impressive operational successes against Iran, but a publicly shared definition of victory remains elusive. This inconsistency and lack of clarity may negatively impact the allies’ ability to achieve durable strategic objectives.
On March 6, Iran and its aligned militias continued their campaign of missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, targeting civilian infrastructure, military installations, airports, and political sites in Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
On March 4 and 5, the United States and Israel continued attacks against elements of the Islamic Republic’s military assets, including its missile and naval threat capacity, as well as its repression apparatus. The countries also declared air superiority over Iran and signaled the beginning of a new phase of the operation.
Ukraine says it will help the United States and its Middle East allies combat the Iranian drones that the Tehran regime is firing at the region. Russia has bombarded Ukrainian cities with these weapons for years, resulting in a series of defensive adaptations and innovations by the Armed Forces of Ukraine¬—and unmatched counter-drone experience.
Between March 3 and March 5, Iran continued retaliating against the joint United States-Israeli military campaign by conducting widespread strikes across Arab Gulf countries using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. Attacks were launched against Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.
Iran-backed Iraqi militias claimed a series of drone and missile attacks against the “US presence” in the region on March 4 and 5, many targeting Iraqi Kurdistan, where significant American forces are located. US and Israeli forces are also likely operating against the Tehran-allied militias in Iraq, as both the militias and official government sources have reported a US presence and unidentified strikes against these groups.
Tehran’s partners and sympathizers have arranged protests across the region against the US-Israeli campaign against Iran, especially the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Some of the demonstrations have turned violent and present a danger to the local US diplomatic presence and civilians.
Israel has carried out more than 1,600 strike sorties against Iran in the first four days of the war, targeting Iranian leaders, nuclear facilities, missile launchers, and other military infrastructure, according to the IDF. Iran has responded with repeated ballistic missile and drone salvos that have killed at least 10 people in Israel and wounded dozens. The Israeli Air Force said that one of its F-35s downed an Iranian Yak-130 aircraft. The fighting has closed Israeli airports and forced widespread civilian alerts as missile barrages continue across the country.
Iran has lashed out at its neighbors with hundreds of missiles and drones. However, a careful analysis of the data shows that Tehran’s ballistic missile launches have been dropping since the start of the conflict, largely because of the impact of US and Israeli strikes.
Iraqi militias backed by Iran have continued to fire drones and missiles at American bases in Iraq and in the region. Both the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and Saraya Awliya al Dam have claimed responsibility for the strikes. Collectively, the groups have claimed dozens of operations against American bases since March 1.
On March 2 and 3, the United States and Israel struck missiles and launchers nationwide, nuclear program sites at Natanz, and a key leadership target in Qom, while also hitting IRGC, Basij, police, and intelligence facilities in Tehran and western Iran.
The Tehran regime responded to the US-Israeli military campaign against it by launching coordinated missile and drone strikes across the Middle East on the first three days of the conflict. The attacks struck multiple Gulf Arab states and targeted civilian infrastructure, airports, ports, and military sites, with notable targets and impacts in the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria.
Kurdish Iranian opposition groups say that Iran targeted their bases in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq with drones and missiles following US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. The Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) and other groups, including PDKI and Komala, reported attacks near Erbil, Duhok, and Sulaymaniyah, with footage suggesting the use of Shahed-type drones. The US State Department condemned the strikes, while Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government said its Peshmerga forces were also targeted. Kurdish opposition groups have also claimed that they are conducting anti-regime operations in Iran.
Houthi leader Abdulmalik al Houthi has delivered speeches in support of the Islamic Republic of Iran since the start of the US-Israeli military campaign, but he has not yet announced specific retaliatory military action. Instead, the Houthis have officially called for mass demonstrations and increased media activity in support of the regime. However, officials from the Iran-backed group have told media outlets that it will resume attacks against Israel and Red Sea shipping.
The joint US and Israeli operation entered its second day, with American forces targeting command-and-control centers, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters, air defense systems, ballistic missile sites, and Iran’s naval forces. In parallel, Israeli strikes concentrated on targets in Tehran, including key pillars of the regime’s repression apparatus, as well as ballistic missile sites and launchers. Iranian retaliatory attacks killed three US service members and nine Israeli civilians.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), a coalition of Iran-backed Shiite militias, claimed over a dozen drone attacks against “enemy bases in Iraq and the region” and issued statements of support for the Tehran regime in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes on Iran. The groups are also responding to unclaimed airstrikes on Iraq that have reportedly killed at least six people, including four confirmed Iraqi militiamen.
Reports following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran say that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead. If true, is regime decapitation the opening salvo of the fall of the Islamic Republic? David Daoud and Joe Truzman are back with Bill Roggio to unpack what we know, what we don’t know, and whether this is the moment that reshapes the Middle East.
After the third round of nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington failed to produce meaningful progress, the US followed through on its threats against the Iranian regime. On the morning of February 8, in a joint operation with Israel, the US struck military sites in Iran and targeted the Islamic Republic’s leadership. The military campaign was supplemented with messaging to ordinary Iranians to take to the streets once the bombing ended, and Israeli sources say that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been killed.
Five Iranian Kurdish opposition groups have announced a coalition aimed at opposing Iran’s regime. The alliance, unveiled at a joint press conference on February 22, includes the PDKI, PJAK, PAK, Komala, and the Khabat Organization. The move comes amid heightened US-Iran tensions and renewed threats from the Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah, which warned the Kurdistan Region against cooperating with “foreign forces.”
Russia and Iran have reportedly finalized a contract for the sale of 500 Russian “Verba” man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) and 2,500 missiles as Iran tries to shore up its air defenses. However, it is unlikely that these weapons would significantly impact potential US operations against the Islamic Republic.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned on February 9 that Ankara may pursue nuclear weapons if Iran acquires them, signaling a potential shift from rhetorical grievance to a conditional proliferation policy. While downplaying evidence of Iran’s weaponization and opposing US military strikes, Turkish officials continue to legitimize Tehran’s nuclear activities while framing Turkish nuclearization as a defensive necessity tied to regional “balance of power.”
In its latest report on the state of global jihad, the UN reveals that Al Qaeda is expanding but doesn’t mention one critical fact: the jihadist group’s leader is based in Iran. Bill Roggio is joined by his FDD colleague Edmund Fitton-Brown—who previously oversaw the UN’s sanctions and monitoring team that produces these assessments—to unpack what the report gets right, what it misses, and why Al Qaeda—not the Islamic State—remains the most dangerous long-term jihadist threat facing the West.