US and Israeli operations inside Iran escalated over the past week. Actions included strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps missile and air defense sites, eliminations of senior military and intelligence officials, the recovery of a US F-15E crew downed over Iran, and attacks on Iranian infrastructure, ranging from petrochemical facilities to major industrial plants.
A pilot of an F-15E Strike Eagle reportedly shot down over Iran was rescued on April 3, while the second crew member remains missing. The downing of an F-15E is the first American fighter jet to be shot down by Iran since major combat operations began in Iran on February 28.
FDD’s Janatan Sayeh is back with Bill Roggio for an update on the Iran war, including: the potential for concrete regime change, last night’s address by President Trump, rumored US-Iran deliberations, the fragile balance of power on the ground, and the possibility of a popular uprising against the wounded Islamic Republic.
Between March 28 and April 1, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones, missiles, and rockets against regional countries—with less overall frequency but more accuracy. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, airports, military facilities, ports, and residential areas.
Washington is considering ground operations as joint US-Israeli strikes impact Iran’s military and internal security forces, reportedly causing thousands of casualties. Simultaneously, Tehran has increased security recruitment efforts, deployed foreign proxy militias, and escalated executions and arrests of Iranian citizens while issuing threats over “sharing images or footage with foreign actors.”
A drone attack targeted the residence of Kurdistan Region of Iraq President Nechirvan Barzani amid escalating strikes in Iraq on March 28, followed by a drone interception near the home of Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the following day. Iranian-backed militias and Iran have been blamed for attacks across Iraq, including more than 500 drone and missile strikes against the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region since February 28.
Kharg Island looks like the perfect target — take it, and you choke off Iran’s oil. But it’s not that simple. Bill Roggio is joined by Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan to discuss why seizing Kharg could hand Tehran exactly what it wants: a wider war, a vulnerable US position, and a fight on the regime’s terms.
The Houthis launched missile and drone attacks against Israel, the first direct military action since the beginning of the US and Israeli campaign against Iran that began on February 28. The Iran-backed Yemeni terrorist group threatened to continue and expand attacks until a series of conditions it issued are met.
Between March 24 and March 27, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones and missiles against Arab countries. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, airports, military facilities, ports, and residential areas in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan.
Reports citing Western officials suggest that Russia has started supplying Iran with complete drones after Russia was previously suspected of only providing components to improve Iranian systems. The unmanned aerial systems are likely modified, Russian-made versions of the same Shahed-136 one-way attack drones that Tehran previously supplied to Moscow.
The US and Israel continued airstrikes as negotiations over the passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz hit an impasse and Iran ramped up efforts to repress its populace. The regime has expanded internal security checkpoints into a dispersed network across various cities and increased arrests targeting alleged collaborators and dissenters.
A US effort to seize Kharg Island, the Islamic Republic’s critical economic hub, would be a high-risk operation that would likely entail significant costs for little gain. Kharg is much more likely to become a liability than an asset, drawing the Trump administration closer to the war of attrition it is trying to avoid.
Bill Roggio sits down with shipping expert Sal Mercogliano to break down Tehran’s latest act of war: turning the world’s most critical shipping chokepoint into leverage.
An Iranian ballistic missile exploded in Lebanese airspace shortly after Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi declared Tehran’s ambassador-designate in the country “persona non grata.” Official silence, coupled with Lebanese reporting that the missile was targeting an American asset in Lebanon, led to speculation that Iran considered Raggi’s move significant and was retaliating for it. However, subsequent reporting and a Lebanese Armed Forces investigation revealed that the missile’s target was outside Lebanon.
On March 23, Ashab al Yamin, a group with ties to the Islamic Republic, took responsibility for attacks in Antwerp and in London. The incidents raise the total number of claimed attacks by the Iran-linked group against Jewish and Western sites to seven.
Six Peshmerga fighters were killed, and more than 20 were wounded in a missile strike north of Erbil on March 24, marking the deadliest attack on the Kurdistan Region since late February. The strike is part of a broader wave of drone and missile attacks by Iran and Iranian-backed militias targeting northern Iraq, US facilities, and Kurdish forces. In addition, rockets were fired toward Syria on March 23, and at least 15 members of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces were killed in a likely US airstrike in Iraq’s Anbar province.
Between March 20 and March 23, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones, missiles, and rockets against Arab countries, targeting energy infrastructure, airports, military bases, diplomatic facilities, and residential areas.
The bombs are falling. The Iranian regime is reeling. But revolutions aren’t won from 30,000 feet. As Washington and Jerusalem pummel toward a mission accomplished, Bill Roggio is joined by FDD’s Jon Schanzer to grapple with a harder question that looms: what happens if there’s no uprising when the bombing stops?
Between March 17 and March 19, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones, missiles, and rockets across the Middle East. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, airports, military bases, diplomatic facilities, and residential areas in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq.
Iranian-backed militias have continued conducting attacks across Iraq, recently targeting US and foreign diplomatic sites in Baghdad and Erbil. Hundreds of strikes have hit the Kurdistan Region since late February, wounding Peshmerga forces and damaging key locations. While Kataib Hezbollah signaled a possible temporary pause in attacks tied to specific demands on March 18, other groups, such as Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada, vowed to continue.
The United States, along with its Israeli partners, continues to make considerable progress toward its military objectives of removing Iran’s primary military means to threaten the region in the third week of Operation Epic Fury. Despite these operational successes, however, Tehran and its proxies retain the ability to attack US forces.
US and Israeli operations have continued to degrade Iran’s military capabilities while increasingly targeting the regime’s internal security apparatus. Strikes on Basij internal security and police units, alongside assassinations and reported morale issues, may be beginning to affect the regime’s ability to sustain repression efforts as US and Israeli attacks also expanded to targeting energy infrastructure.
President Donald Trump has identified the Iranian navy as a major target in the US campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran. US forces have struck a range of port infrastructure and key vessels to degrade its capability, destroying more than 100 vessels by March 16.
US and Israeli strikes against the Islamic Republic are expanding to include additional military infrastructure, command centers, and production facilities. At the same time, the Tehran regime is tightening security across Iranian cities amid reports of arrests, checkpoints, and growing economic pressure.
Between March 13 and March 16, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones, missiles, rockets, and other attack platforms across the Middle East, targeting energy infrastructure, airports, military bases, residential areas, diplomatic facilities, and oil fields.
Israel executed more than 7,600 strikes on Iran by March 13, targeting nuclear-linked facilities, missile launchers, drone infrastructure, and military sites, according to the Israel Defense Forces. Israel continues conducting roughly 150–200 strikes per day as Iran continues launching ballistic missiles and drones toward Israel and the Gulf countries.
As US and Israeli strikes pound Iran’s military, and Tehran threatens shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict is entering a dangerous new phase. FDD’s Bradley Bowman joins Bill Roggio to break down what the strikes have achieved, and the harder question that remains: is the goal to weaken the regime … or bring it down?
The Iran conflict has entered a new phase after US–Israeli strikes have destroyed key military infrastructure, killed thousands of regime personnel, and degraded Iran’s missile and drone launch rates. Israel has shifted toward hyperlocal targeting of repression units and regime figures inside Tehran, often aided by intelligence from Iranians on the ground. Simultaneously, the Tehran regime has publicly projected stability after Mojtaba Khamenei’s elevation to supreme leader, despite Khamenei’s continued absence from public view and some signs of internal strain.
A senior leader of the Qatar-based Muslim Brotherhood-aligned International Union of Muslim Scholars condemned Iran’s recent retaliatory strikes against Middle Eastern countries while also urging Muslims to unite against a broader ‘Zionist-American project.’ Despite criticizing Tehran, the group remains focused on Israel as the primary adversary of the Islamic world.
A previously unknown organization called the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right claimed responsibility for an explosion that targeted a synagogue in Liège, Belgium, and another unconfirmed attack at an unknown location in Greece this week. It is unclear if the organization is authentic, but recent Iranian threats aimed at European countries over the war could indicate a connection to the Islamic Republic.