US and Israeli operations inside Iran escalated over the past week. Actions included strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps missile and air defense sites, eliminations of senior military and intelligence officials, the recovery of a US F-15E crew downed over Iran, and attacks on Iranian infrastructure, ranging from petrochemical facilities to major industrial plants.
Washington is considering ground operations as joint US-Israeli strikes impact Iran’s military and internal security forces, reportedly causing thousands of casualties. Simultaneously, Tehran has increased security recruitment efforts, deployed foreign proxy militias, and escalated executions and arrests of Iranian citizens while issuing threats over “sharing images or footage with foreign actors.”
The US and Israel continued airstrikes as negotiations over the passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz hit an impasse and Iran ramped up efforts to repress its populace. The regime has expanded internal security checkpoints into a dispersed network across various cities and increased arrests targeting alleged collaborators and dissenters.
US and Israeli operations have continued to degrade Iran’s military capabilities while increasingly targeting the regime’s internal security apparatus. Strikes on Basij internal security and police units, alongside assassinations and reported morale issues, may be beginning to affect the regime’s ability to sustain repression efforts as US and Israeli attacks also expanded to targeting energy infrastructure.
US and Israeli strikes against the Islamic Republic are expanding to include additional military infrastructure, command centers, and production facilities. At the same time, the Tehran regime is tightening security across Iranian cities amid reports of arrests, checkpoints, and growing economic pressure.
The Iran conflict has entered a new phase after US–Israeli strikes have destroyed key military infrastructure, killed thousands of regime personnel, and degraded Iran’s missile and drone launch rates. Israel has shifted toward hyperlocal targeting of repression units and regime figures inside Tehran, often aided by intelligence from Iranians on the ground. Simultaneously, the Tehran regime has publicly projected stability after Mojtaba Khamenei’s elevation to supreme leader, despite Khamenei’s continued absence from public view and some signs of internal strain.
The joint US–Israeli campaign is striking Iran’s military and internal security infrastructure across the country while continuing to eliminate senior regime figures. Amid the pressure, the regime installed a new supreme leader, expanded regional attacks while denying responsibility, and intensified repression, as Israel increased outreach to the Iranian public.
On March 2 and 3, the United States and Israel struck missiles and launchers nationwide, nuclear program sites at Natanz, and a key leadership target in Qom, while also hitting IRGC, Basij, police, and intelligence facilities in Tehran and western Iran.
The joint US and Israeli operation entered its second day, with American forces targeting command-and-control centers, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters, air defense systems, ballistic missile sites, and Iran’s naval forces. In parallel, Israeli strikes concentrated on targets in Tehran, including key pillars of the regime’s repression apparatus, as well as ballistic missile sites and launchers. Iranian retaliatory attacks killed three US service members and nine Israeli civilians.
After the third round of nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington failed to produce meaningful progress, the US followed through on its threats against the Iranian regime. On the morning of February 8, in a joint operation with Israel, the US struck military sites in Iran and targeted the Islamic Republic’s leadership. The military campaign was supplemented with messaging to ordinary Iranians to take to the streets once the bombing ended, and Israeli sources say that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been killed.
Iran has ramped up military provocations against US forces as nuclear negotiations loom, with regime officials sending mixed signals on uranium enrichment while refusing to discuss missile programs or terror proxies. Internal regime sources reveal the leadership’s growing fear that a US strike could trigger mass uprisings. Despite killing over 36,000 protesters, according to some estimates, scattered demonstrations continue across Iran, with one official saying that “the wall of fear has collapsed.”
Iran’s protest movement has now entered its third week, and the regime is struggling to contain the unrest. Islamic Republic authorities fear disobedience within the ranks, and reports of potential defections point to growing anxiety inside the security apparatus. Washington is assessing options to strike regime sites.
Iranian Baluch separatist factions have formed a new coalition known as the Popular Fighters Front (JMM), presenting themselves as a unified movement against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The coalition’s manifesto outlines its constituent groups, including PADA Baluch, Harakat-e Nasr, Jaish al Adl, the Mohammad Rasulullah network, and independent fighters, and frames its mission as defending the “dignity, culture, and political identity” of the Baluch people while appealing to broader Iranian opposition forces. JMM has already claimed responsibility for a December 2025 attack in Zahedan that left four of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel dead.
Senior Iranian officials have openly hinted at Tehran’s shifting nuclear posture. A nuclear scientist confirmed Iran’s capacity to build nuclear weapons, while a military official reflected that Tehran should have pursued them in the 1990s—exposing how the regime’s rhetoric now edges closer to weaponization.
The Islamic Republic has long backed proxy groups abroad, but their role inside Iran is less well-known. Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias, and the Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigade have helped suppress dissent within Iran, and recent reports of their harassment of female students have sparked new outrage.
Israel killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah member Wissam Saeed Jubai in southern Lebanon and struck Hezbollah compounds in the Beqaa Valley as reports indicate Tehran is seeking new financial channels to sustain Hezbollah after Assad’s collapse. The IDF separately revealed the arrests of Qods Force Unit 840 operatives in Syria, part of Jerusalem’s renewed efforts against Tehran’s proxies in the Levant.
Reacting to Europe’s decision to initiate snapback, the reimposition of pre-2015 UN sanctions, officials and state media in the Islamic Republic issued vague threats of retaliation. While some voices have acknowledged that snapback could pave the way for war, others are downplaying its impact in an effort to prevent public panic and preserve regime morale, a contrast that suggests Tehran is bracing for the possibility of escalation.
As Tehran continues to ready for a potential conflict, Israel has ramped up direct appeals to the Iranian public, offering water technology, urging protests, and hinting at a regime collapse. The Israeli campaign has drawn sharp backlash from Iranian leaders, while both sides maintain a shadow war marked by likely sabotage and public military preparations.
The August 8 agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan that was brokered in Washington created the US-managed “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” and granted Azerbaijan a link to its Nakhchivan exclave. While the deal preserves Iran’s overland access to Armenia and Europe, Tehran sees it as a strategic setback that could weaken its role in regional trade, bolster Turkish and Azerbaijani influence, and reduce its leverage with the West.
Afghans in Iran now occupy a charged space in the regime’s security calculus, seen as both potential infiltration risks and diplomatic leverage. From exploiting leaked UK asylum data to mass deportations and espionage arrests, Tehran is reframing Afghan migration as a matter of national security.
Tehran’s aggressive global terrorism, intelligence, and repression operations are drawing sharper Western scrutiny. The US, the UK, and 12 allies condemned Tehran’s plots abroad, which it often outsources to criminal gangs. European states are investigating regime-linked mosques, while Iran passed a law to track expatriates under the guise of outreach.
Israel and Iran indirectly agreed to a ceasefire on June 24, yet a wave of explosions and the mysterious death of an IRGC general over the past week have disturbed the relative calm in Iran. The regime has attributed every explosive incident to “gas leaks,” despite contradictory evidence. Israel has remained silent on these events but likely maintains intelligence superiority and the capacity to conduct operations in Iran.
As France, Germany, and the UK weigh triggering snapback sanctions, Tehran has escalated its threats against Europe both rhetorically and operationally. Mohammad Javad Larijani, a senior advisor to the Supreme Leader, warned that Europeans “can no longer move about comfortably,” pointing to Iran’s growing drone capabilities as a tool of deterrence. From supplying Russia with drones for use in Ukraine to cultivating organized crime networks across Europe, the Islamic Republic is leveraging multiple pressure points to dissuade the E3 from restoring UN sanctions under Resolution 2231.
After nearly two weeks of high-intensity conflict, US President Donald Trump announced on June 23 that Israel and Iran had reached a ceasefire agreement. The announcement followed a flurry of kinetic activity: Iran launched missiles at the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in response to American strikes on its nuclear infrastructure, while Israel escalated its air campaign against Iran, targeting missile systems and the regime’s core repression institutions.
Following US strikes on three nuclear sites, Tehran has threatened to target American bases in the Middle East, continue missile attacks on Israel, and close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims the strikes were anticipated, uranium was moved from Fordow in advance, and Iran is preparing for a potential six-month war.
Over the past 72 hours, Israel has intensified its air campaign across Iran, striking missile and drone infrastructure in Esfahan, Bushehr, Ahvaz, Yazd, and Qom. Targets included the Imam Hossein missile base in Yazd, IRGC drone and air defense facilities, and the Shahid Mostafa Khomeini military base. Senior IRGC and IRGC-Qods Force commanders tied to weapons transfers, regional proxy coordination, and nuclear development were killed. Despite Tehran’s calls for retaliation, Hezbollah, Hamas, and other allied militias have mostly stayed out of the fight so far.
Israel expanded its campaign against Iran with strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sites, missile infrastructure, and nuclear-linked facilities, reportedly killing a nuclear scientist in Tehran. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) framed the attacks as targeting the Iranian regime’s repression and appealing to public discontent. Talks between Iran and EU officials on June 20 brought no breakthrough, as Tehran ruled out abandoning uranium enrichment.
Israel has expanded its military campaign against Iran with targeted strikes on nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and security institutions. Leadership changes within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) point to a tightening of internal control, while cyberattacks have disrupted Iran’s banking system and fueled public anxiety. Tehran’s threats toward US regional bases continue as Washington weighs possible military involvement.
Israel struck key Iranian military sites across Tehran, Karaj, and Kermanshah, destroyed air defenses, and hacked state TV, urging protests. Iran responded with internet shutdowns and claims of foiling Israeli plots. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s recent emergency video reflects rising tensions after Trump’s demands for Iran’s surrender.
As new operations unfold, Tehran appears cornered—its highest military leadership decimated, banking networks disrupted, and supreme leader underground. With Western powers weighing escalation, the coming days could determine whether this conflict ends in negotiation or spreads further across the region.