Author Archives: Bill Roggio

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

Kunduz province in danger of falling to the Taliban

The Taliban has gone on the offensive in northern Afghanistan and is on the verge of taking control of Kunduz province if Afghan security forces cannot stay the siege of Kunduz City. Kunduz is one of eight provinces in danger of falling to the Taliban before U.S. forces are scheduled to completely withdraw in September. […]



Taliban takes control of 30 districts in past six weeks

In the six weeks since the May 1 deadline for U.S. troops to withdraw from Afghanistan, the Taliban has seized control of 32 additional districts, their reach spanning half of the country’s 34 provinces. The Afghan government has been unable to regain control in any of the 32 districts. FDD’s Long War Journal has closely […]



UN report on Taliban controlled and contested districts tracks with LWJ data

The United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team reports that as of April 2021, the Taliban contests or controls “an estimated 50 to 70 per cent of Afghan territory” and exerts “direct control over 57 per cent of district administrative centres.” LWJ’s analysis of the security situation is very similar.



Analysis: Predicting the coming Taliban offensive

Taliban will continue to wage its war against a weakened Afghan government to resurrect its Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. A look at how the Taliban may attempt to achieve this goal now that U.S. forces, which were unable to prevent the Taliban from seizing key rural districts, will soon be gone.


Taliban overruns district in central Afghanistan

With the fall of Dawlat Shah, the Taliban now control one of Laghman’s five districts, and contest the other four. The Taliban is laying the groundwork for a potential siege of Kabul, which likely would take place if the Taliban could first secure the south and east.