Ukrainian Parliament Passes Mobilization Bill But Punts on Demobilization
Ukraine’s parliament finally passed a bill aimed at redressing its manpower shortage. But Kyiv’s lack of urgency has given Russia an opportunity to make gains.
Author Archives: John Hardie
Battle of Avdiivka: A Preliminary Analysis
The battle was generally favorable for Ukraine, as it destroyed a lot of Russian combat power. But Ukraine waited too long to withdraw and failed to prepare a solid second line of defense.
Ukraine’s Hold on Avdiivka Slipping
Russian forces have pushed into northern Avdiivka, which now seems likely to fall. But Russia stands little chance of making major gains unless the U.S. cuts aid.
Russian Munitions Production Higher But Still Insufficient
A Ukrainian intelligence official confirmed that Russia has increased production of key munitions. But supply remains short of demand.
Zelenskyy Orders Ukrainian Forces to Dig In
Extensive fortifications helped Russia thwart Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Ukraine may now take a page from Russia’s book heading into a tough 2024.
Key Precision-Strike System for Ukraine Delayed Until 2024
The much-anticipated GLSDB will not arrive in Ukraine until early 2024. It will offer Ukraine a cost-effective weapon against targets up to 150 km away.
Drone Fragment Offers Clue About Russia’s Shahed-136 Production Rate
As Moscow looks to ramp up production of Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, a recent strike left a clue about Russia’s production rate.
No Solid Evidence Russia Debuted ‘Italmas’ Drone
Despite speculation that Russia debuted its new Italmas drone in Ukraine, the mystery drone in question is likely more mundane.
Ukraine Shows HAWK Air Defense System in Action for First Time
While the HAWK may be old, Ukraine will take all the air defenses it can get as winter approaches.
Ukraine now has ATACMS — but will soon need more
ATACMS has already proven its value for Ukraine in strikes against a pair of Russian helicopter bases. But unless Kyiv receives more missiles, it will soon run out.
Ukraine Might Finally Get ATACMS. Here’s What That Means.
Washington may finally give Ukraine ATACMS missiles. Although not a silver bullet, ATACMS will be a boon for Ukraine. Here’s how.
Kyiv Strikes Bridges Supporting Russian Forces in Southern Ukraine
Ukraine’s latest bridge strikes will disrupt Russia’s supply lines but may not be enough to cripple Russian logistics.
Main Thrust of Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Has Begun
Ukraine seems to have launched the main thrust of its counteroffensive. The coming weeks will likely determine whether the operation succeeds.
More Evidence That Russia’s Making Iranian Drones
Further evidence has emerged indicating Russia has begun making Iranian kamikaze drones or at least prototypes thereof.
Crimean Bridge Damaged by Ukrainian Strike
Ukraine apparently struck the Crimean Bridge using unmanned surface vehicles. However, it will likely have a limited impact on Russian military logistics.
France Sends SCALP-EG Missiles to Ukraine
Kyiv’s new French-supplied missiles will help the Ukrainian military degrade Russian logistics and command and control.
Has Russia Begun Producing Iranian-Designed Suicide Drones?
New evidence suggests Moscow is getting closer to producing Iranian-designed suicide drones in Russia.
Russia’s National Guard to Get Tanks Following Wagner Mutiny
The head of Russia’s National Guard said his troops will receive tanks and other heavy equipment following Wagner’s mutiny.
Kyiv Strikes Key Bridge Connecting Crimea to Mainland Ukraine
The Ukrainian military on Thursday struck a key bridge connecting the Crimean Peninsula to the Russian-occupied part of Kherson Oblast. The strike aims to degrade Russia’s ability to resist the counteroffensive Kyiv launched earlier this month. On Thursday morning, Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed head of Kherson Oblast, shared footage showing a large hole in the […]
Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Two Weeks In
Two weeks into its counteroffensive, Ukraine has made some initial gains while also suffering losses. The operation has yet to reach its decisive phase.
Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Has Likely Begun
Ukraine launched a flurry of localized offensives across the battlefield on June 4 and 5, most notably in Russian-occupied southern Donetsk Oblast. These attacks likely aim merely to probe Russian defenses or divert Russia’s attention from a forthcoming larger offensive. Nevertheless, the early stages of Kyiv’s much-anticipated counteroffensive appear to have begun. Ukraine reportedly launched […]
Moscow Shakes Up Command of Its Forces in Ukraine (Again)
Moscow’s latest command shake-up likely reflects internal power politics and bodes poorly for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
Estimating Russia’s Kh-101 Production Capacity
Data from downed Kh-101 cruise missiles suggests that despite sanctions, Russian production of these (and perhaps other) missiles not only persists but may be greater than some previously thought.
In an About-Face, Russia Announces Mobilization and ‘Referendums’ in Occupied Ukrainian Territories
In a televised address on Wednesday morning, President Vladimir Putin promised to ensure the security of upcoming “referendums” in occupied Ukrainian territories and declared Russia would conduct a “partial mobilization.” These announcements represent an about-face from the Kremlin’s position on these issues mere days ago, likely reflecting Putin’s realization that drastic measures are necessary to […]
Ukraine’s Counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson and the Road Ahead
Ukraine’s stunning victory in Kharkiv Oblast has reshaped the battlefield and dealt a powerful blow to Vladimir Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continue to wage a more gradual but no less important counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. This analysis will unpack them both and highlight some factors that will shape the road ahead. Kharkiv […]