
Iran’s ambassador to Iraq claimed on October 20 that Iraq has agreed to expel Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in the Kurdistan Region. The announcement came amid increased Iranian attacks on these groups and as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party withdraws from positions in northern Iraq as part of a peace process with Turkey. An Iraqi source disputes Tehran’s claim that an expulsion agreement has been reached.

Pakistani forces and the Taliban exchanged heavy fire along the border as Russia, the European, and China pressed for dialogue and action against terrorist groups operating from Afghanistan.

Armed men identifying themselves as Hezbollah supporters reportedly surrounded Lebanese security personnel conducting an October 16 raid on a pharmaceutical warehouse near Beirut’s southern suburbs. Hezbollah subsequently claimed the officers had violated an agreed security coordination procedure with the group.

Efforts to implement the US-backed Board of Peace’s plans for Gaza remain stalled on the ground, with a first military facility still unbuilt, but preparations for Hamas’s disarmament and international reconstruction cooperation are moving forward. Meanwhile, Hamas maintains its grip on Gaza’s civilian administration and commercial activity, despite its July declaration that it was relinquishing…

Hezbollah announced a new housing-assistance program for Lebanese families displaced by the wars with Israel, even as earlier compensation payments remain outstanding and questions persist over the group’s financing. Separately, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam met with Hezbollah and Amal lawmakers to discuss government-funded reconstruction projects in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Lebanese security forces intercepted a shipment containing nearly 800 kilograms of explosives reportedly destined for Hezbollah in Beirut. Authorities arrested two men and are investigating the shipment’s origins and intended use. Hezbollah has reportedly demanded the explosives’ return, testing the government’s prohibition on the group’s military activities.
A 21-year-old German who had reportedly previously attempted to join the Islamic State allegedly carried out the deadly vehicle-ramming attack at Berlin’s Pride festival, killing one person and injuring 29 others.

Former Marine and New York Times journalist Thomas Gibbons-Neff recently returned to Afghanistan to find accountability and closure, specifically seeking out a Taliban commander he had battled in 2010. Bill Roggio and Will Selber break down the merits of Gibbons-Neff’s recent tour in country and whether this type of article will skew a full understanding of the Afghan War as the 25th anniversary of 9/11 nears.

Israel has approved the future deployment of the International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza, a significant step in implementing the US-backed peace plan. The planned multinational force is expected to support humanitarian efforts, stabilization, and a transition toward new Palestinian governance as Israel continues operations against terrorist groups in Gaza.

Russia continues to provide intelligence to help Iran strike American forces, Kyiv alleged over the weekend. Ukraine is also attempting to interdict the transportation of military goods between the two authoritarian powers.

In part two of their conversation, Generation Jihad’s Bill Roggio, FDD CMPP Senior Director Bradley Bowman, and FDD Senior Analyst Cameron McMillan ask a tough question following months of kinetic warfare with Iran: What’s the Pentagon’s readiness for the next battle?

Syria is expanding energy and infrastructure cooperation as it seeks economic recovery and greater regional relevance. Damascus is also rebuilding state institutions, including graduating 1,000 new air force cadets.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s short-sighted decision to fire his popular defense minister may ultimately redound to Ukraine’s benefit, as the firestorm it unleashed has forced Zelenskyy to install a widely respected, new-school officer as Ukraine’s top general.

The US says it’s degrading Iran’s threat, but as the renewed air campaign approaches the two-week mark, the math still doesn’t check out. In Part 1 of this conversation, Generation Jihad’s Bill Roggio joins FDD CMPP Senior Director Bradley Bowman and Senior Analyst Cameron McMillan to discuss the real gap between degrading Iran’s missile, drone, and naval capabilities and actually eliminating them, and why murky end goals could lead to a long-term, inconclusive standoff.

The Houthis declared a complete maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, claiming it is in response to blockades imposed by the Saudi-led coalition that supports Yemen’s internationally recognized government. Saudi Arabia denounced the blockade and said it will protect its ships, but multiple commercial vessels have rerouted to avoid the Bab al Mandeb Strait.

Somalia said that it and “international partners” killed Maalin Jinow Ibrahim, a reported co-founder of Shabaab and a member of its central shura council, in a targeted operation earlier this month. However, Al Qaeda’s branch for East Africa has yet to confirm his death.

Iran has intensified drone and missile attacks on Kurdish Iranian opposition groups and energy infrastructure in the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq amid renewed tensions with the United States. Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi is seeking to balance relations with Washington and Tehran after his visit to Washington.

Reuters reported that Iran’s leaders instructed the Houthis in Yemen to close Bab al Mandeb Strait, the maritime chokepoint at the southern end of the Red Sea, if the United States strikes Iran’s power infrastructure. The Houthis are also focused on an escalatory cycle with Saudi Arabia that began after Iran and the Houthis attempted to re-establish direct flights in early July.

Moscow has now officially acknowledged the existence of its new Banderol low-cost cruise missile, which has seen growing action in Ukraine in recent months.

Iraq’s Ministry of Finance issued an order imposing sanctions on Hezbollah-linked individuals and entities that mirrors US designations from March and June. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi is currently visiting the United States, where he hopes to garner support for an expanded economic partnership and prove his government’s commitment to countering Iranian influence.

On July 16, Syrian authorities intercepted a weapons shipment concealed in an Iraqi oil tanker and bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon. The tanker contained a wide range of sophisticated weapons and components, including first-person-view drones, fiber-optic spools, drone warheads, anti-tank missiles, and cruise-missile components.

The Iran ceasefire is dead. FDD Research Analyst Janatan Sayeh and Bill Roggio discuss whether Europe may finally be turning on Tehran, whether Israel will rejoin the active fight, and whether the weakened Islamic Regime survives by unleashing its terror proxies across the Gulf.
