Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shiite militia, warned the United States that if Washington launched a war with Iran, the group would attack American bases in the region. The threat comes amid rising tension between Washington and Tehran as the Islamic Republic continues a brutal crackdown on demonstrations that began nearly three weeks ago.

Kurdish opposition groups in northwestern Iran have actively supported protests against the Iranian regime during the first two weeks of January. Amid the Iranian government’s crackdown, seven Kurdish parties have called for unity and supported a general strike. One group, the Kurdistan Freedom Party, has claimed several attacks on the regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

After military defeat abroad and at home, where the economy also has collapsed, the Islamic Republic is weaker than ever, and the Iranian people know it. The regime is facing a nationwide uprising unlike anything seen in decades, with Iranians across class, age, and ideology back in the streets. And they’re no longer asking for reform—they’re demanding an end to the Islamic Republic itself. Meanwhile, President Trump warned that US military action is on the table if the regime slaughters protesters. As we record, a brutal crackdown is underway with reports of hundreds of Iranians killed and tens of thousands…

Two gunmen carried out an antisemitic terrorist attack on a Hanukkah celebration at Sydney’s Bondi Beach, killing at least 16 people and wounding dozens before one attacker was killed and the other arrested. Australian authorities, who said one suspect was previously known to the Australian Security Intelligence Organization, are investigating possible foreign links as Israel separately examines whether Iran or its proxies played a role amid warnings about Iranian-backed threats to Jewish communities abroad.

Iranian Baluch separatist factions have formed a new coalition known as the Popular Fighters Front (JMM), presenting themselves as a unified movement against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The coalition’s manifesto outlines its constituent groups, including PADA Baluch, Harakat-e Nasr, Jaish al Adl, the Mohammad Rasulullah network, and independent fighters, and frames its mission as defending the “dignity, culture, and political identity” of the Baluch people while appealing to broader Iranian opposition forces. JMM has already claimed responsibility for a December 2025 attack in Zahedan that left four of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel dead.

The Israeli military and Shin Bet reported on a Hamas financial network operating in Turkey under direct Iranian supervision and moving hundreds of millions of dollars through Turkish-based money changers to fund terrorism. Three key operatives based in Turkey were identified as managing large-scale financial activity for Hamas. Israeli officials warned that any entity linked to this network will face consequences and criticized the concept of a NATO member enabling Iran-backed terror financing.

In 2020, the US Treasury Department sanctioned Al Mustafa International University, followed by Canada’s Foreign Ministry designating the organization in 2022. Ostensibly an international Islamic school, Al Mustafa is a front for Iranian terrorism and propaganda with a proven track record of involvement in terror plots, including a recent IRGC scheme to assassinate Israel’s ambassador to Mexico.

With the help of China, Tehran is importing a chemical precursor for its medium-range ballistic missiles despite recently imposed United Nations sanctions, CNN reported. The report assesses that Tehran “appears to be stepping up the rebuilding of its ballistic missile program” following the 12-day war with Israel in June.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al Sudani on October 21, discussing the “urgency in disarming Iran-backed militias that undermine Iraq’s sovereignty.” Sudani told the US to “avoid unilateral decisions in Iraq.” The call followed increased US sanctions on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and individuals linked to them. Separately, Iraq’s National Security Advisor Qasim al Araji visited Iran and met with the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), while IRGC-Qods Force Commander Esmail Qaani visited Iraq to discuss upcoming elections with Shiite political parties.

Senior Iranian officials have openly hinted at Tehran’s shifting nuclear posture. A nuclear scientist confirmed Iran’s capacity to build nuclear weapons, while a military official reflected that Tehran should have pursued them in the 1990s—exposing how the regime’s rhetoric now edges closer to weaponization.

Two years after the Iran-backed, Hamas-led attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, Israel remains locked into a multi-front, defensive war against the Islamic Republic and its patrons — including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Bill Roggio and Joe Truzman look back at how 10/7 reshaped the region, what’s surprised them most, and why the conflict is far from over.

On September 23, US Special Envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack claimed that Syria and Israel “are close to striking a ‘de-escalation’ agreement in which Israel will stop its attacks while Syria will agree not to move any machinery or heavy equipment near the Israeli border.”

On September 17, the US State Department designated four Iran-backed Iraqi militias as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs). These groups, previously listed as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs), have received support from the regime in Tehran and attacked US forces and interests in Iraq and across the Middle East.

Israel killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah member Wissam Saeed Jubai in southern Lebanon and struck Hezbollah compounds in the Beqaa Valley as reports indicate Tehran is seeking new financial channels to sustain Hezbollah after Assad’s collapse. The IDF separately revealed the arrests of Qods Force Unit 840 operatives in Syria, part of Jerusalem’s renewed efforts against Tehran’s proxies in the Levant.

Hezbollah has been leveraging crime in Canada for decades to raise funds. A recent Canadian government report states that the group maintains these illicit sources of financing.

Reacting to Europe’s decision to initiate snapback, the reimposition of pre-2015 UN sanctions, officials and state media in the Islamic Republic issued vague threats of retaliation. While some voices have acknowledged that snapback could pave the way for war, others are downplaying its impact in an effort to prevent public panic and preserve regime morale, a contrast that suggests Tehran is bracing for the possibility of escalation.

Iraqi and American officials announced that the US-led counter-Islamic State operation in Iraq began its transition to a bilateral security agreement. US forces have begun moving from Iraqi bases as part of the first phase of the shift, which will end “the coalition’s military mission” in the country.

Al Mustafa International University, a religious seminar in Iran’s city of Qom, is a key instrument of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s efforts to spread its revolutionary ideology. Its cooperation with the regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has earned it sanctions from the United States and Canada, and some of its graduates have been implicated in terrorist plots. Yet, the organization’s work overseas continues with little interference from local authorities.

As Tehran continues to ready for a potential conflict, Israel has ramped up direct appeals to the Iranian public, offering water technology, urging protests, and hinting at a regime collapse. The Israeli campaign has drawn sharp backlash from Iranian leaders, while both sides maintain a shadow war marked by likely sabotage and public military preparations.

Afghans in Iran now occupy a charged space in the regime’s security calculus, seen as both potential infiltration risks and diplomatic leverage. From exploiting leaked UK asylum data to mass deportations and espionage arrests, Tehran is reframing Afghan migration as a matter of national security.

Tehran’s aggressive global terrorism, intelligence, and repression operations are drawing sharper Western scrutiny. The US, the UK, and 12 allies condemned Tehran’s plots abroad, which it often outsources to criminal gangs. European states are investigating regime-linked mosques, while Iran passed a law to track expatriates under the guise of outreach.

Tehran’s leaders anticipate another war with Israel and have instructed their proxies to remain on high alert for a potential attack wave. Jerusalem has not ruled out the possibility of a new conflict with the Islamic Republic and is optimistic about a green light from Washington.

Israel and Iran indirectly agreed to a ceasefire on June 24, yet a wave of explosions and the mysterious death of an IRGC general over the past week have disturbed the relative calm in Iran. The regime has attributed every explosive incident to “gas leaks,” despite contradictory evidence. Israel has remained silent on these events but likely maintains intelligence superiority and the capacity to conduct operations in Iran.

As France, Germany, and the UK weigh triggering snapback sanctions, Tehran has escalated its threats against Europe both rhetorically and operationally. Mohammad Javad Larijani, a senior advisor to the Supreme Leader, warned that Europeans “can no longer move about comfortably,” pointing to Iran’s growing drone capabilities as a tool of deterrence. From supplying Russia with drones for use in Ukraine to cultivating organized crime networks across Europe, the Islamic Republic is leveraging multiple pressure points to dissuade the E3 from restoring UN sanctions under Resolution 2231.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) apprehended members of a cell in Syria who were working on behalf of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force, the IDF said on July 7. It was the second operation in two weeks in which the IDF targeted suspects linked to Iran’s IRGC-QF in southern Syria. Israeli units of the 210th Division continue to carry out operations in Syria, including on Mount Hermon and along the Golan border.

The Houthis resumed targeting Red Sea shipping with two attacks on commercial vessels that killed three crew members and injured two more. The Yemeni terrorist group had not targeted commercial shipping in over half a year.
