The ceasefire between the US and Iran has largely held since April 8, and large-scale Iranian barrages targeting predominantly Arab states have ended. However, some attacks, particularly against Iraqi Kurdistan, have continued.
The Iran-linked front organization Ashab al Yamin claimed eight attacks on what it describes as “American and Zionist interests” in European countries in April. The most recent statements by the group took responsibility for targeting multiple locations in London, including the Israeli embassy.
Iran has consistently sought to link its ceasefire with the United States to a concurrent cessation of hostilities in Lebanon. Tehran’s goal is to save Hezbollah, regardless of its stated aim of sparing Lebanon additional suffering. Iran, therefore, pressed the matter again as Hezbollah was on the cusp of losing the critical town of Bint Jbeil. A ceasefire in Lebanon went into effect on April 16.
Kinetic events and military actions continue in Gaza, including 14 violations of the fragile ceasefire by Palestinian terrorists, according to the Israeli military. The Israel Defense Forces has documented an uptick in planned attacks against Israeli soldiers in the enclave.
On April 16, Syrian President Ahmad al Sharaa met with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander Mazloum Abdi in Damascus to discuss advancing the integration of the SDF into state institutions, following a January agreement. The talks come amid shifting control in eastern Syria, including government moves to secure key bases and border crossings after a US withdrawal.
FDD Senior Fellow Edmund Fitton-Brown joins Bill Roggio to assess the current state of the Iran War. From the dual blockade in the Strait of Hormuz to the failed peace negotiations, they consider: Why did Pakistan step up as mediator? Can Tehran stretch the Houthis for even more leverage in the Red Sea? Has the war pushed the Gulf States closer together?
Baghdad is shifting toward political stabilization and economic challenges during the fragile post-conflict phase that follows more than a month of US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian-backed militia attacks in Iraq. After hundreds of militia attacks, including strikes on US and Kurdish targets, Iraq is moving forward with long-delayed political appointments, including choosing a new president.
Efforts described by Iran-backed Iraqi militias as humanitarian campaigns increasingly show signs of serving as a parallel financial pipeline that also fuels Iran’s current war effort and regional proxy network. Across Iraq, groups aligned with Tehran are mobilizing donation drives framed as a religious obligation and in wartime solidarity.
On April 8, Israel launched its most intense aerial blitz in Lebanon since the war with Hezbollah restarted. The strikes were particularly deadly in Beirut, where the Israeli military struck targets both in the suburb of Dahiyeh and, in a rare occurrence, the heart of the Lebanese capital. Israel alleges that Hezbollah operatives had moved northward out of the group’s Dahiyeh nerve center into the city.
US and Israeli forces conducted an impressive campaign that significantly degraded Iran’s primary elements of military power. The operation did not, however, destroy these capabilities outright or eliminate Iran’s ability to project meaningful power outside of its borders.
Syria has sought to position itself as a diplomatic actor amid the regional conflict with Iran, maintaining relative stability while several neighboring states faced significant missile and drone attacks. Damascus has intensified high-level engagements with Turkey, the United States, and Ukraine, highlighting efforts to rebuild international ties following the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime.
FDD Senior Fellow David Daoud and Bill Roggio examine the recent and fragile ceasefire in the ongoing Iran war. Will the fighting in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah break the peace, and has the Iranian resistance movement missed a golden opportunity?
Iran and its allied militias launched numerous drones and missiles against regional countries between April 2 and April 8, continuing attacks after a ceasefire between Iran and the United States was announced yesterday. Across this period, the attacks remained concentrated on the Gulf, Jordan, Iraq, and Iraqi Kurdistan, with repeated mass-interception events in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.
There are conflicting conditions demanded by the US and Iran for lasting peace, and Israeli and Iranian strikes continued after the ceasefire announcement. However, a cessation of hostilities and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping appear to be agreed-upon items. Iranian leaders touted the ceasefire as a victory, while US officials said the objectives of destroying Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities were achieved.
Bill Roggio and FDD Senior Analyst Cameron McMillan unravel the complex rescue of two US airmen shot down over Iran, including the strategic coordination and risks involved with the operation, plus the current state of the Iranian ballistic missile program and Tehran’s strategic adaptability amidst the dynamic conditions of this war.
Three attackers opened fire on police officers outside the Israeli consulate in Istanbul, Turkey earlier today. Turkish police killed one shooter and captured two others. The affiliation of the attackers is currently unknown, but the incident comes almost a week after the Islamic State called for attacks on Jews during the Passover holiday.
Iran’s increasing use of cluster munitions in ballistic missile attacks since late February has intensified damage across Israel, with dozens of impact sites reported in major cities in the first week of April. Four people were killed in Haifa in a missile attack on April 6. Meanwhile, Israel is escalating strikes on Iranian infrastructure targets and boosting production of Arrow interceptors as part of its multi-layered air defense.
US and Israeli operations inside Iran escalated over the past week. Actions included strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps missile and air defense sites, eliminations of senior military and intelligence officials, the recovery of a US F-15E crew downed over Iran, and attacks on Iranian infrastructure, ranging from petrochemical facilities to major industrial plants.
While the US-Israeli war with Iran has taken center stage, Israel’s Gaza front remained active, despite the US-brokered ceasefire that took effect on October 10 of last year. The Israeli military has documented 22 ceasefire violations by Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups since the war with Iran began on February 28.
The renewed conflict in Lebanon has settled into a static pattern, despite remaining intense. Israel has narrowed its immediate war aims, while Lebanon remains unable to restrain Hezbollah, which remains defiant. This dynamic of impasse has led the international community to effectively tolerate the situation in Lebanon.
A pilot of an F-15E Strike Eagle reportedly shot down over Iran was rescued on April 3, while the second crew member remains missing. The downing of an F-15E is the first American fighter jet to be shot down by Iran since major combat operations began in Iran on February 28.
FDD’s Janatan Sayeh is back with Bill Roggio for an update on the Iran war, including: the potential for concrete regime change, last night’s address by President Trump, rumored US-Iran deliberations, the fragile balance of power on the ground, and the possibility of a popular uprising against the wounded Islamic Republic.
Between March 28 and April 1, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones, missiles, and rockets against regional countries—with less overall frequency but more accuracy. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, airports, military facilities, ports, and residential areas.
The Iran-backed terror group Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shiite militia, kidnapped American journalist Shelly Kittleson in downtown Baghdad on March 31. The US government had previously warned Kittleson of a threat against her and the group’s desire to kill or abduct journalists.
Washington is considering ground operations as joint US-Israeli strikes impact Iran’s military and internal security forces, reportedly causing thousands of casualties. Simultaneously, Tehran has increased security recruitment efforts, deployed foreign proxy militias, and escalated executions and arrests of Iranian citizens while issuing threats over “sharing images or footage with foreign actors.”
Israel targeted and killed Ali Shuaib, an employee of the Hezbollah TV station Al Manar, and two others who worked for the pro-Hezbollah Al Mayadeen channel. The Israel Defense Forces claimed Shuaib was a Hezbollah Radwan Force operative using his journalistic credentials to monitor Israeli troop movements.
A drone attack targeted the residence of Kurdistan Region of Iraq President Nechirvan Barzani amid escalating strikes in Iraq on March 28, followed by a drone interception near the home of Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the following day. Iranian-backed militias and Iran have been blamed for attacks across Iraq, including more than 500 drone and missile strikes against the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region since February 28.
Kharg Island looks like the perfect target — take it, and you choke off Iran’s oil. But it’s not that simple. Bill Roggio is joined by Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan to discuss why seizing Kharg could hand Tehran exactly what it wants: a wider war, a vulnerable US position, and a fight on the regime’s terms.
The Houthis launched missile and drone attacks against Israel, the first direct military action since the beginning of the US and Israeli campaign against Iran that began on February 28. The Iran-backed Yemeni terrorist group threatened to continue and expand attacks until a series of conditions it issued are met.
Between March 24 and March 27, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones and missiles against Arab countries. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, airports, military facilities, ports, and residential areas in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan.