Naim Qassem marked the 33rd anniversary of the Mahdi Schools System with a defiant speech that said Iran was divinely promised a momentous victory over the United States and Israel. He also stressed that Hezbollah would not disarm, and its patient path of choosing even death over surrender would guarantee Lebanon’s eventual victory over Israel.
Syrian government forces deployed into Al Hasakah and Qamishli in eastern Syria in early February under a January 30 agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The deal is aimed at ending clashes and restoring central authority in mainly Kurdish areas that the SDF still controls. The government deployment coincided with reports of continued US transfers of Islamic State detainees from Syria to Iraq and US strikes on Islamic State targets.
Iran has ramped up military provocations against US forces as nuclear negotiations loom, with regime officials sending mixed signals on uranium enrichment while refusing to discuss missile programs or terror proxies. Internal regime sources reveal the leadership’s growing fear that a US strike could trigger mass uprisings. Despite killing over 36,000 protesters, according to some estimates, scattered demonstrations continue across Iran, with one official saying that “the wall of fear has collapsed.”
The US-brokered truce in Gaza is still holding but faces challenges as Hamas and other Palestinian terrorists continue to violate the terms almost daily, and the IDF responds with airstrikes. Despite the Rafah Crossing opening to pedestrian traffic, challenges are emerging surrounding procuring reconstruction funding, part of US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza.
In Part 37 of Big Yikes in Syria, Bill Roggio and Ahmad Sharawi unpack yet another round of bad alliances and strategic failure in the war-torn country.
Israel continued military operations in Lebanon between January 26 and February 1, 2026. Israeli activities were concentrated in south Lebanon and continued to target Hezbollah assets and personnel, despite the Lebanese Armed Forces claiming to have taken operational control of the South Litani Area earlier this month.
The Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt reopened on February 2 for limited pedestrian traffic, marking a key step in the US-backed ceasefire plan that began in October. The move followed significant Israeli airstrikes after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that terrorists had emerged from a tunnel in Rafah, violating the ceasefire. The IDF continued operations in Gaza, reporting additional clashes with suspected terrorists and the discovery of weapons and tunnels near Khan Younis along the Yellow Line.
A new video released by the Islamic State details the jihadist group’s brazen attack on Niger’s international airport and military airbase in the capital of Niamey. The footage undercuts statements made by Nigerien officials, indicating the attack was much worse than initially reported.
The Popular Forces captured Adham al Akar, a Hamas company commander in Rafah, and transferred him to Israeli custody. Akar’s capture underscores the growing role of local anti-Hamas militias in conducting offensive operations against the Islamist organization. However, with the ceasefire framework expected to bring further Israeli military withdrawals from Gaza, these groups may face mounting strategic risks.
The Islamic State has officially claimed last week’s assault on Niger’s Diori Hamani International Airport in the capital of Niamey, which also hosts the military Air Base 101. Niger claims the assault was repelled, with Russia’s Africa Corps mercenary group also taking credit for the defense.
Battles between Syrian government forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have continued to intensify despite a US-mediated ceasefire agreement. The latest clashes have involved drone strikes, rocket and artillery fire, and suicide bombings.
Lebanese media reports claim that Hezbollah sought to smuggle weapons from the remnants of its arsenal in Syria to Dahiyeh in Lebanon. The weapons, transported in two vehicles, were detected by suspicious Lebanese authorities. However, the reports claim that Hezbollah temporarily detained a Lebanese officer and only handed over the vehicles for inspection after emptying them of their cargo.
Russia evacuated troops from the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli ahead of interim Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa’s second visit to Moscow. Whether Russia will retain access to two key military facilities in western Syria was a part of the discussion between the two leaders.
The Russian military has launched a recruitment drive seeking troops for drone units, reflecting the key role that unmanned systems have come to play both in the Ukraine war and in Russia’s plans for its future force structure.
On January 28, former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki stated that he rejected “blatant American interference in Iraq’s internal affairs,” a day after US President Donald Trump said Maliki, who is a leading contender for the country’s next prime minister, should not retake the office. US envoy to Iraq Mark Savaya also said that Iranian-backed militias should be prevented from having power in the next government. Separately, several Iranian-backed militias threatened to support Iran in any conflict with the US or Israel and sent forces to the border with Syria amid fighting between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Tehran and its regional proxy groups have threatened retaliation against the United States and Israel as Washington moves additional military assets into the Middle East after the regime’s lethal crackdown on protesters. Regime-affiliated outlets and proxy leaders have outlined various retaliation scenarios, including drone swarms, maritime disruption efforts, and suicide attacks.
Hezbollah has yet to deploy operatives to protect the Islamic Republic of Iran’s regime from ongoing protests. However, the group has stated that it will not remain neutral if the United States or Israel attack the Tehran regime and threaten its existence. Hezbollah also claims the current Iranian authorities actually enjoy widespread domestic support and that calls for regime change are being instigated by Washington and Jerusalem.
The body of the last Israeli hostage held in Gaza was returned to Israel by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on January 26. Ran Gvili, an Israeli police sergeant who was killed in the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, had been held in Gaza since the day of the attack. The second phase of the US-backed Gaza peace plan is expected to proceed with the limited opening of the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt. On January 24, US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Israel to discuss the next phase of the ceasefire and Kushner’s Gaza reconstruction plan.
Israel continued military operations in Lebanon between January 19 and January 25, 2026. Israeli operations last week targeted Hezbollah assets and personnel both north and south of the Litani River.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) recently assassinated a Hezbollah local liaison officer in south Lebanon and has now explained the alleged function of these operatives during the group’s regeneration efforts, including how they cultivate relationships with Lebanese civilians.
The US-brokered Gaza ceasefire plan is entering its second phase, with the new National Committee for the Administration of Gaza and the Board of Peace set to play key roles. Twenty-five countries have accepted US President Donald Trump’s invitation to join the Board of Peace, while five have declined. Palestinian terrorists reportedly violated the ceasefire’s first phase 11 additional times between January 9 and January 22.
The United States Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned seven entities linked to Hamas’s covert support network. The sanctions add to a lengthy history of the group leveraging nongovernmental organizations and sham charities to raise funds for terrorism.
US forces completed their withdrawal from Ain al Assad Airbase, the Iraqi government said on January 18, fulfilling a US agreement with Iraqi authorities going back to 2024. The withdrawal took place as Syrian government forces pushed back the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in Syria. On January 21, US Central Command said it would transfer up to 7,000 Islamic State detainees from Syria to Iraq.
Israel continued military operations in Lebanon between January 12 and January 18, 2026. Israeli activities were largely concentrated north of the Litani River, with mainly policing activities occurring south of the waterway.
An assessment published by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) this week points to a sharp reduction in Palestinian-perpetrated terrorist activity across the West Bank in 2025. The IDF attributed the decline to sustained counterterrorism operations in the territory throughout last year. However, despite the figures, there are signs that West Bank terrorist organizations are attempting to renew their efforts.
Syrian government forces advancing into eastern Syria are increasingly taking over areas where Islamic State members have been held in prisons and detention facilities by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF said it lost control of Al Shaddadi prison, and the Syrian government asserted that it would secure the facility and round up prisoners who may have fled. Clashes also occurred near Aqtan prison north of Raqqa.
Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shiite militia, warned the United States that if Washington launched a war with Iran, the group would attack American bases in the region. The threat comes amid rising tension between Washington and Tehran as the Islamic Republic continues a brutal crackdown on demonstrations that began nearly three weeks ago.
The US military killed Al Qaeda leader Bilal Hasan al Jasim in an airstrike in Syria on January 16. US Central Command (CENTCOM) directly linked Jasim to the December 13, 2025, attack that killed two US soldiers and a civilian contractor in Syria. CENTCOM and the Al Qaeda-linked Syrian government have maintained that the December attack was carried out by the Islamic State, despite stating Jasim’s role in the operation, and the fact that Al Qaeda and the Islamic State are enemies.
On January 16, the White House announced a number of appointments to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) and the Board of Peace, which will support the stabilization and demilitarization of Gaza, after the Gaza ceasefire, which began in October, moved into its second phase on January 14. The Israel Defense Forces clashed with gunmen in the territory on January 14 and responded with airstrikes.
Following intense fighting between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian government forces, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi ordered the withdrawal of his personnel from contested areas of Aleppo province.