The renewed conflict in Lebanon has settled into a static pattern, despite remaining intense. Israel has narrowed its immediate war aims, while Lebanon remains unable to restrain Hezbollah, which remains defiant. This dynamic of impasse has led the international community to effectively tolerate the situation in Lebanon.
A pilot of an F-15E Strike Eagle reportedly shot down over Iran was rescued on April 3, while the second crew member remains missing. The downing of an F-15E is the first American fighter jet to be shot down by Iran since major combat operations began in Iran on February 28.
FDD’s Janatan Sayeh is back with Bill Roggio for an update on the Iran war, including: the potential for concrete regime change, last night’s address by President Trump, rumored US-Iran deliberations, the fragile balance of power on the ground, and the possibility of a popular uprising against the wounded Islamic Republic.
Between March 28 and April 1, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones, missiles, and rockets against regional countries—with less overall frequency but more accuracy. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, airports, military facilities, ports, and residential areas.
The Iran-backed terror group Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shiite militia, kidnapped American journalist Shelly Kittleson in downtown Baghdad on March 31. The US government had previously warned Kittleson of a threat against her and the group’s desire to kill or abduct journalists.
Washington is considering ground operations as joint US-Israeli strikes impact Iran’s military and internal security forces, reportedly causing thousands of casualties. Simultaneously, Tehran has increased security recruitment efforts, deployed foreign proxy militias, and escalated executions and arrests of Iranian citizens while issuing threats over “sharing images or footage with foreign actors.”
Israel targeted and killed Ali Shuaib, an employee of the Hezbollah TV station Al Manar, and two others who worked for the pro-Hezbollah Al Mayadeen channel. The Israel Defense Forces claimed Shuaib was a Hezbollah Radwan Force operative using his journalistic credentials to monitor Israeli troop movements.
A drone attack targeted the residence of Kurdistan Region of Iraq President Nechirvan Barzani amid escalating strikes in Iraq on March 28, followed by a drone interception near the home of Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the following day. Iranian-backed militias and Iran have been blamed for attacks across Iraq, including more than 500 drone and missile strikes against the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region since February 28.
Kharg Island looks like the perfect target — take it, and you choke off Iran’s oil. But it’s not that simple. Bill Roggio is joined by Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan to discuss why seizing Kharg could hand Tehran exactly what it wants: a wider war, a vulnerable US position, and a fight on the regime’s terms.
The Houthis launched missile and drone attacks against Israel, the first direct military action since the beginning of the US and Israeli campaign against Iran that began on February 28. The Iran-backed Yemeni terrorist group threatened to continue and expand attacks until a series of conditions it issued are met.
Between March 24 and March 27, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones and missiles against Arab countries. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, airports, military facilities, ports, and residential areas in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan.
Reports citing Western officials suggest that Russia has started supplying Iran with complete drones after Russia was previously suspected of only providing components to improve Iranian systems. The unmanned aerial systems are likely modified, Russian-made versions of the same Shahed-136 one-way attack drones that Tehran previously supplied to Moscow.
The US and Israel continued airstrikes as negotiations over the passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz hit an impasse and Iran ramped up efforts to repress its populace. The regime has expanded internal security checkpoints into a dispersed network across various cities and increased arrests targeting alleged collaborators and dissenters.
While attention has shifted to the conflicts in Iran and Lebanon, Gaza remains under a fragile ceasefire, with ongoing low-level clashes. High Representative for Gaza Nickolay Mladenov highlighted progress toward a disarmament framework tied to UN-backed plans. Despite this, Hamas continues to consolidate control in parts of the territory as Israel targets militants and terrorist infrastructure.
Turkish spy chief Ibrahim Kalin’s March 22 meeting with senior Hamas leaders in Istanbul highlights Turkey’s continued high-level engagement with the group, reinforcing Ankara’s role as a mediator in Gaza ceasefire negotiations while omitting any discussion of Hamas’s disarmament. The meeting reflects a broader pattern of Turkish support for the group, evidenced by recent US Treasury sanctions on Turkish charities linked to Hamas.
On March 18, Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodríguez removed longtime Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and installed Gustavo González López, followed by initiating a broad restructuring of the military’s top leadership. These moves unfolded alongside US-supported stabilization efforts and the passage of a February 20 amnesty law that has facilitated the release of dozens of political prisoners. Nevertheless, a UN fact-finding mission reported that the country’s repressive apparatus remains largely unchanged.
A US effort to seize Kharg Island, the Islamic Republic’s critical economic hub, would be a high-risk operation that would likely entail significant costs for little gain. Kharg is much more likely to become a liability than an asset, drawing the Trump administration closer to the war of attrition it is trying to avoid.
Bill Roggio sits down with shipping expert Sal Mercogliano to break down Tehran’s latest act of war: turning the world’s most critical shipping chokepoint into leverage.
An Iranian ballistic missile exploded in Lebanese airspace shortly after Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi declared Tehran’s ambassador-designate in the country “persona non grata.” Official silence, coupled with Lebanese reporting that the missile was targeting an American asset in Lebanon, led to speculation that Iran considered Raggi’s move significant and was retaliating for it. However, subsequent reporting and a Lebanese Armed Forces investigation revealed that the missile’s target was outside Lebanon.
On March 23, Ashab al Yamin, a group with ties to the Islamic Republic, took responsibility for attacks in Antwerp and in London. The incidents raise the total number of claimed attacks by the Iran-linked group against Jewish and Western sites to seven.
The Islamic State’s Central Africa Province (ISCAP), known locally as the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), raided and burned down a Chinese-owned mine in eastern Congo earlier this month. The raid, which was far from the jihadist group’s normal area of operation, highlights both ISCAP’s threats to Congo’s mining sector and its resilience after nearly five years of a sustained military operation against it.
Six Peshmerga fighters were killed, and more than 20 were wounded in a missile strike north of Erbil on March 24, marking the deadliest attack on the Kurdistan Region since late February. The strike is part of a broader wave of drone and missile attacks by Iran and Iranian-backed militias targeting northern Iraq, US facilities, and Kurdish forces. In addition, rockets were fired toward Syria on March 23, and at least 15 members of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces were killed in a likely US airstrike in Iraq’s Anbar province.
Between March 20 and March 23, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones, missiles, and rockets against Arab countries, targeting energy infrastructure, airports, military bases, diplomatic facilities, and residential areas.
The bombs are falling. The Iranian regime is reeling. But revolutions aren’t won from 30,000 feet. As Washington and Jerusalem pummel toward a mission accomplished, Bill Roggio is joined by FDD’s Jon Schanzer to grapple with a harder question that looms: what happens if there’s no uprising when the bombing stops?
The Israeli military announced on March 22 that it killed Walid Dib, a Hamas money man, in Lebanon. In addition to Dib, two other Hamas members operating in Lebanon have also been eliminated in Israeli strikes in recent days.
Shabaab, Al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, highlighted last year’s brazen assault on Mogadishu’s Godka Jilacow prison, operated by Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency. In the video, one of the attackers was identified as the son of Ali Mohamed Rage, the group’s top spokesman.
Kuwaiti and UAE authorities stated that they discovered and arrested terror cells linked to Hezbollah operating in their countries. The Lebanese group denied the allegations, insisting that it does not have operatives in the Gulf states.
Unclaimed but likely American airstrikes have continued against Iran-backed Iraqi militias, with one strike reportedly killing a senior Kataib Hezbollah commander. The US and Kataib Hezbollah have subsequently agreed to a temporary, conditional pause in attacks on the US Embassy in Baghdad, though other hostilities in the country continue.
Between March 17 and March 19, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones, missiles, and rockets across the Middle East. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, airports, military bases, diplomatic facilities, and residential areas in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq.
Iranian-backed militias have continued conducting attacks across Iraq, recently targeting US and foreign diplomatic sites in Baghdad and Erbil. Hundreds of strikes have hit the Kurdistan Region since late February, wounding Peshmerga forces and damaging key locations. While Kataib Hezbollah signaled a possible temporary pause in attacks tied to specific demands on March 18, other groups, such as Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada, vowed to continue.