The US is losing leverage in Somalia as frustration with Mogadishu threatens critical African Union support and risks strengthening Al Shabaab’s hold. In Mali, renewed US airstrikes against JNIM raise a parallel concern—whether air power alone, without a ground strategy or political reform, can contain the group’s advance. Bill Roggio and Caleb Weiss examine these dynamics across the Sahel and the assess the murky state of Al Qaeda.

Former Marine and New York Times journalist Thomas Gibbons-Neff recently returned to Afghanistan to find accountability and closure, specifically seeking out a Taliban commander he had battled in 2010. Bill Roggio and Will Selber break down the merits of Gibbons-Neff’s recent tour in country and whether this type of article will skew a full understanding of the Afghan War as the 25th anniversary of 9/11 nears.

In part two of their conversation, Generation Jihad’s Bill Roggio, FDD CMPP Senior Director Bradley Bowman, and FDD Senior Analyst Cameron McMillan ask a tough question following months of kinetic warfare with Iran: What’s the Pentagon’s readiness for the next battle?

The US says it’s degrading Iran’s threat, but as the renewed air campaign approaches the two-week mark, the math still doesn’t check out. In Part 1 of this conversation, Generation Jihad’s Bill Roggio joins FDD CMPP Senior Director Bradley Bowman and Senior Analyst Cameron McMillan to discuss the real gap between degrading Iran’s missile, drone, and naval capabilities and actually eliminating them, and why murky end goals could lead to a long-term, inconclusive standoff.

The Iran ceasefire is dead. FDD Research Analyst Janatan Sayeh and Bill Roggio discuss whether Europe may finally be turning on Tehran, whether Israel will rejoin the active fight, and whether the weakened Islamic Regime survives by unleashing its terror proxies across the Gulf.

A new 14-point trilateral framework toward ending hostilities in Lebanon puts Hezbollah, Iran’s strongest terror proxy, at a crossroads. Disarm and let Lebanon reclaim its southern border—or keep threatening Israel and risk blowing up the fragile US-Iran peace deal. FDD Senior Fellow David Daoud joins Bill Roggio to break down what’s really at stake in these negotiations.

One week after President Trump signed a landmark Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran, the 60-day negotiation window is already under pressure—and the concessions are piling up. So, is this two-page MOU actually worth the paper it’s written on? FDD Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow Behnam Ben Taleblu joins Bill Roggio to break it all down.

President Trump said that a two-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) has been signed between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran that will end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. But will this deal bring about a lasting peace in the region, or has peace just become another five-letter word? FDD Senior Fellow David Daoud and Bill Roggio speculate as to what will become of the Middle East and America’s influence in the region as this very thin MOU moves forward.

Despite multiple attempts by Israel to quell the fighting in Gaza and decapitate Hamas’s leadership, the group continues a guerilla-style resistance. The IDF now fights on three active fronts: Lebanon, Iran, and Gaza. But it’s perhaps the forgotten war in Gaza that could resume major hostilities if left unchecked. Bill Roggio speaks with FDD Research Analyst Samuel Ben-Ur about next steps in Gaza.

While attention remains fixed elsewhere, jihadist groups are expanding across Africa. Bill Roggio and Caleb Weiss revisit the growing threats in Mali, Nigeria, and Somalia—and why the continent remains one of the most consequential battlegrounds in the war against Al Qaeda and the Islamic State.

Iran’s military has been shattered. The Strait of Hormuz remains contested. Three months in, Bill Roggio and FDD’s Jon Schanzer examine why quick victories are rare, patience is scarce, and this war is entering its most consequential phase yet.

Hezbollah’s missiles may be depleted, but cheap FPV drones are changing the battlefield — slipping past defenses, targeting Israeli troops, and exposing a dangerous new vulnerability. Bill Roggio and David Daoud unpack Hezbollah’s drone evolution, the psychological warfare behind the footage, and why Israel may be drifting back toward the failed security zone dynamics of the past.

Before Hamas. Before Al Qaeda. Before the Islamic State. There was… the Muslim Brotherhood. And for nearly a century, it has played the long game by building influence across the Middle East and even deep inside the West. Bill Roggio is joined Edmund Fitton-Brown to discuss.

Iran’s nuclear program is in ruins, but the threat is far from dead. Deputy Director of FDD’s Non-Proliferation Program Andrea Stricker and Bill Roggio dive into the desperate gamble Tehran is making at the negotiating table with the US — and the terrifying chemical contingency they might be holding in reserve.

The world’s most vital trade artery is under siege. As the US launches “Project Freedom” to break the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global shipping remains in a chokehold. This week, Bill Roggio sits down with shipping expert Sal Mercogliano to break down the stalemate, the dual blockade, and the massive economic ripple effects threatening the global supply chain.

Tehran is shifting the battlefield from missiles to markets, turning the Strait of Hormuz into leverage and testing whether Washington will trade long-term strategy for short-term relief. Bill Roggio and Behnam Ben Taleblu discuss.

Across Mali, jihadis are seizing territory, encircling the capital, and pushing a fragile regime toward collapse. Backed by a sprawling network and in an effort years in the making, Al Qaeda’s Sahel affiliate has launched its most ambitious offensive yet—one that could redraw the map of West Africa. Bill Roggio and Caleb Weiss unpack what’s going on.

Iran says it’s not in a rush to negotiate, but reality signals something else. Bill Roggio is joined by FDD Senior Fellow Miad Maleki — a former US Treasury sanctions architect — to break down why Tehran walked away from talks, what the Strait of Hormuz blockade is really doing, and why the regime may be under more pressure than at any point since 1979.

FDD Senior Fellow Edmund Fitton-Brown joins Bill Roggio to assess the current state of the Iran War. From the dual blockade in the Strait of Hormuz to the failed peace negotiations, they consider: Why did Pakistan step up as mediator? Can Tehran stretch the Houthis for even more leverage in the Red Sea? Has the war pushed the Gulf States closer together?

FDD Senior Fellow David Daoud and Bill Roggio examine the recent and fragile ceasefire in the ongoing Iran war. Will the fighting in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah break the peace, and has the Iranian resistance movement missed a golden opportunity?

Bill Roggio and FDD Senior Analyst Cameron McMillan unravel the complex rescue of two US airmen shot down over Iran, including the strategic coordination and risks involved with the operation, plus the current state of the Iranian ballistic missile program and Tehran’s strategic adaptability amidst the dynamic conditions of this war.

FDD’s Janatan Sayeh is back with Bill Roggio for an update on the Iran war, including: the potential for concrete regime change, last night’s address by President Trump, rumored US-Iran deliberations, the fragile balance of power on the ground, and the possibility of a popular uprising against the wounded Islamic Republic.

Kharg Island looks like the perfect target — take it, and you choke off Iran’s oil. But it’s not that simple. Bill Roggio is joined by Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan to discuss why seizing Kharg could hand Tehran exactly what it wants: a wider war, a vulnerable US position, and a fight on the regime’s terms.

Bill Roggio sits down with shipping expert Sal Mercogliano to break down Tehran’s latest act of war: turning the world’s most critical shipping chokepoint into leverage.

The bombs are falling. The Iranian regime is reeling. But revolutions aren’t won from 30,000 feet. As Washington and Jerusalem pummel toward a mission accomplished, Bill Roggio is joined by FDD’s Jon Schanzer to grapple with a harder question that looms: what happens if there’s no uprising when the bombing stops?

As US and Israeli strikes pound Iran’s military, and Tehran threatens shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict is entering a dangerous new phase. FDD’s Bradley Bowman joins Bill Roggio to break down what the strikes have achieved, and the harder question that remains: is the goal to weaken the regime … or bring it down?

After 12 days of war—and the death of Iran’s supreme leader—the Islamic Republic is under unprecedented pressure. Bill Roggio and Janatan Sayeh assess this initial phase of the war, the gap between Washington and Jerusalem’s goals, and the decisive question still looming over Tehran: will the Iranian people finish the job?

Many Americans believed a conflict with the Islamic Republic would be a new war. But as Bill Roggio and Behnam Ben Taleblu explain, the truth is simpler: this war began in 1979. Now, the question isn’t how the war started. It’s how it ends. Is this a limited war to degrade the Tehran regime — or the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic?

Reports following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran say that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead. If true, is regime decapitation the opening salvo of the fall of the Islamic Republic? David Daoud and Joe Truzman are back with Bill Roggio to unpack what we know, what we don’t know, and whether this is the moment that reshapes the Middle East.
