One week after President Trump signed a landmark Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran, the 60-day negotiation window is already under pressure—and the concessions are piling up. So, is this two-page MOU actually worth the paper it’s written on? FDD Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow Behnam Ben Taleblu joins Bill Roggio to break it all down.
Days after Tehran and Washington reached a memorandum of understanding over ending the recent conflict, Iran’s new supreme leader is distancing himself from the agreement as hardliners clash over its implications. Meanwhile, reports that Iran is preparing to increase support for Hezbollah and statements from senior regime figures suggest that Tehran views any sanctions relief as an opportunity to rebuild proxy capabilities.
President Trump said that a two-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) has been signed between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran that will end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. But will this deal bring about a lasting peace in the region, or has peace just become another five-letter word? FDD Senior Fellow David Daoud and Bill Roggio speculate as to what will become of the Middle East and America’s influence in the region as this very thin MOU moves forward.
Iran’s military has been shattered. The Strait of Hormuz remains contested. Three months in, Bill Roggio and FDD’s Jon Schanzer examine why quick victories are rare, patience is scarce, and this war is entering its most consequential phase yet.
The world’s most vital trade artery is under siege. As the US launches “Project Freedom” to break the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global shipping remains in a chokehold. This week, Bill Roggio sits down with shipping expert Sal Mercogliano to break down the stalemate, the dual blockade, and the massive economic ripple effects threatening the global supply chain.
CENTCOM denied Iranian claims that a US warship was struck on the same day the US announced “Project Freedom,” an effort to “restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.”
The Houthis have reiterated support for Iran despite their limited involvement in the Islamic Republic’s recent war with Israel and the United States. The Yemeni terrorist group is also reportedly weighing a toll for the safe transit of ships in the Red Sea, a move it has implemented before.
Iran says it’s not in a rush to negotiate, but reality signals something else. Bill Roggio is joined by FDD Senior Fellow Miad Maleki — a former US Treasury sanctions architect — to break down why Tehran walked away from talks, what the Strait of Hormuz blockade is really doing, and why the regime may be under more pressure than at any point since 1979.
Tehran has refused to take an official position after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an extension of the US ceasefire with Iran, while conditioning further negotiations on the lifting of the US naval blockade. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also threatened regional oil and digital infrastructure and attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
The ceasefire between the US and Iran has largely held since April 8, and large-scale Iranian barrages targeting predominantly Arab states have ended. However, some attacks, particularly against Iraqi Kurdistan, have continued.
US and Israeli forces conducted an impressive campaign that significantly degraded Iran’s primary elements of military power. The operation did not, however, destroy these capabilities outright or eliminate Iran’s ability to project meaningful power outside of its borders.
Iran and its allied militias launched numerous drones and missiles against regional countries between April 2 and April 8, continuing attacks after a ceasefire between Iran and the United States was announced yesterday. Across this period, the attacks remained concentrated on the Gulf, Jordan, Iraq, and Iraqi Kurdistan, with repeated mass-interception events in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.
There are conflicting conditions demanded by the US and Iran for lasting peace, and Israeli and Iranian strikes continued after the ceasefire announcement. However, a cessation of hostilities and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping appear to be agreed-upon items. Iranian leaders touted the ceasefire as a victory, while US officials said the objectives of destroying Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities were achieved.
Iran’s increasing use of cluster munitions in ballistic missile attacks since late February has intensified damage across Israel, with dozens of impact sites reported in major cities in the first week of April. Four people were killed in Haifa in a missile attack on April 6. Meanwhile, Israel is escalating strikes on Iranian infrastructure targets and boosting production of Arrow interceptors as part of its multi-layered air defense.
US and Israeli operations inside Iran escalated over the past week. Actions included strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps missile and air defense sites, eliminations of senior military and intelligence officials, the recovery of a US F-15E crew downed over Iran, and attacks on Iranian infrastructure, ranging from petrochemical facilities to major industrial plants.
A pilot of an F-15E Strike Eagle reportedly shot down over Iran was rescued on April 3, while the second crew member remains missing. The downing of an F-15E is the first American fighter jet to be shot down by Iran since major combat operations began in Iran on February 28.
FDD’s Janatan Sayeh is back with Bill Roggio for an update on the Iran war, including: the potential for concrete regime change, last night’s address by President Trump, rumored US-Iran deliberations, the fragile balance of power on the ground, and the possibility of a popular uprising against the wounded Islamic Republic.
Washington is considering ground operations as joint US-Israeli strikes impact Iran’s military and internal security forces, reportedly causing thousands of casualties. Simultaneously, Tehran has increased security recruitment efforts, deployed foreign proxy militias, and escalated executions and arrests of Iranian citizens while issuing threats over “sharing images or footage with foreign actors.”
Kharg Island looks like the perfect target — take it, and you choke off Iran’s oil. But it’s not that simple. Bill Roggio is joined by Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan to discuss why seizing Kharg could hand Tehran exactly what it wants: a wider war, a vulnerable US position, and a fight on the regime’s terms.
Between March 24 and March 27, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones and missiles against Arab countries. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, airports, military facilities, ports, and residential areas in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan.
Reports citing Western officials suggest that Russia has started supplying Iran with complete drones after Russia was previously suspected of only providing components to improve Iranian systems. The unmanned aerial systems are likely modified, Russian-made versions of the same Shahed-136 one-way attack drones that Tehran previously supplied to Moscow.
The US and Israel continued airstrikes as negotiations over the passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz hit an impasse and Iran ramped up efforts to repress its populace. The regime has expanded internal security checkpoints into a dispersed network across various cities and increased arrests targeting alleged collaborators and dissenters.
A US effort to seize Kharg Island, the Islamic Republic’s critical economic hub, would be a high-risk operation that would likely entail significant costs for little gain. Kharg is much more likely to become a liability than an asset, drawing the Trump administration closer to the war of attrition it is trying to avoid.
Bill Roggio sits down with shipping expert Sal Mercogliano to break down Tehran’s latest act of war: turning the world’s most critical shipping chokepoint into leverage.
The bombs are falling. The Iranian regime is reeling. But revolutions aren’t won from 30,000 feet. As Washington and Jerusalem pummel toward a mission accomplished, Bill Roggio is joined by FDD’s Jon Schanzer to grapple with a harder question that looms: what happens if there’s no uprising when the bombing stops?
Between March 17 and March 19, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones, missiles, and rockets across the Middle East. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, airports, military bases, diplomatic facilities, and residential areas in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq.
The United States, along with its Israeli partners, continues to make considerable progress toward its military objectives of removing Iran’s primary military means to threaten the region in the third week of Operation Epic Fury. Despite these operational successes, however, Tehran and its proxies retain the ability to attack US forces.
US and Israeli operations have continued to degrade Iran’s military capabilities while increasingly targeting the regime’s internal security apparatus. Strikes on Basij internal security and police units, alongside assassinations and reported morale issues, may be beginning to affect the regime’s ability to sustain repression efforts as US and Israeli attacks also expanded to targeting energy infrastructure.
President Donald Trump has identified the Iranian navy as a major target in the US campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran. US forces have struck a range of port infrastructure and key vessels to degrade its capability, destroying more than 100 vessels by March 16.
US and Israeli strikes against the Islamic Republic are expanding to include additional military infrastructure, command centers, and production facilities. At the same time, the Tehran regime is tightening security across Iranian cities amid reports of arrests, checkpoints, and growing economic pressure.