Tehran and its regional proxy groups have threatened retaliation against the United States and Israel as Washington moves additional military assets into the Middle East after the regime’s lethal crackdown on protesters. Regime-affiliated outlets and proxy leaders have outlined various retaliation scenarios, including drone swarms, maritime disruption efforts, and suicide attacks.

Syrian government forces advancing into eastern Syria are increasingly taking over areas where Islamic State members have been held in prisons and detention facilities by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF said it lost control of Al Shaddadi prison, and the Syrian government asserted that it would secure the facility and round up prisoners who may have fled. Clashes also occurred near Aqtan prison north of Raqqa.

Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shiite militia, warned the United States that if Washington launched a war with Iran, the group would attack American bases in the region. The threat comes amid rising tension between Washington and Tehran as the Islamic Republic continues a brutal crackdown on demonstrations that began nearly three weeks ago.

Iranian-backed militias in Iraq are reportedly considering an initiative to disarm and place their weapons under government control. The militias, part of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), have been incorporated as independent units within Iraq’s security forces since 2016. Kataib Hezbollah, one of the most powerful of militias, has rejected disarmament, while the US lauded the potential development.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) published new data in the wake of the killing of two American soldiers and an interpreter in Syria on December 13, showing that US and partner forces have carried out 80 operations in the country since July 2025. “We will continue to work closely with our Syrian partners to hunt down ISIS networks and prevent their resurgence,” Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of CENTCOM, said. There have also been several security operations in Syria and Iraq conducted by Syrian and Iraqi security forces in the wake of the attack.

Iraq is embarking on a likely months-long process of government formation after its national election. Sunni and Kurdish leaders will be elected to serve as speaker of the Council of Representatives and president of Iraq, respectively, in accordance with Iraq’s traditional sectarian power-sharing arrangements. The office of the prime minister, who is the head of government, goes to a Shiite leader and will be determined by negotiations within and between the major parties and alliances that emerge post-election.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al Sudani on October 21, discussing the “urgency in disarming Iran-backed militias that undermine Iraq’s sovereignty.” Sudani told the US to “avoid unilateral decisions in Iraq.” The call followed increased US sanctions on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and individuals linked to them. Separately, Iraq’s National Security Advisor Qasim al Araji visited Iran and met with the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), while IRGC-Qods Force Commander Esmail Qaani visited Iraq to discuss upcoming elections with Shiite political parties.

On September 17, the US State Department designated four Iran-backed Iraqi militias as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs). These groups, previously listed as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs), have received support from the regime in Tehran and attacked US forces and interests in Iraq and across the Middle East.

The Iraqi National Intelligence Service made a surprising announcement yesterday that it busted an Islamic State financial network spanning three countries in West Africa. The network was helping to fund Islamic State activities in Iraq, as well as attack planning in Europe.

Iraqi and American officials announced that the US-led counter-Islamic State operation in Iraq began its transition to a bilateral security agreement. US forces have begun moving from Iraqi bases as part of the first phase of the shift, which will end “the coalition’s military mission” in the country.

Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia, was involved in a deadly shooting at Iraq’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 27. Despite the support for Iran-backed militias from many Shiite politicians, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani announced the results of an investigation that found the militia responsible for the incident and recommended consequences.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio voiced American objections to pending Iraqi legislation concerning the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an entity largely composed of pro-Iranian militias. Iraq is attempting to pass a law to protect and legitimize the PMF as an autonomous security organization separate from other government military or security agencies.

Tehran’s leaders anticipate another war with Israel and have instructed their proxies to remain on high alert for a potential attack wave. Jerusalem has not ruled out the possibility of a new conflict with the Islamic Republic and is optimistic about a green light from Washington.

Suspected Iran-backed militias targeted bases in Iraq that are known to have housed US troops and contractors as the ceasefire between Iran and Israel took effect. The Trump administration did not respond to last night’s attacks or previous attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria.

Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have refrained from attacking Israel directly since the start of the war between Israel and Iran on June 13. However, there have been two unclaimed attacks on US interests in Iraq since Operation Rising Lion began, and the Iraqi groups have ramped up anti-Israeli and anti-American rhetoric, threatening US interests and mobilizing supporters through propaganda channels.

Kataib Imam Ali is the sixth Iran-backed Shiite militia in Iraq that has been listed by the US as a terrorist organization. The group’s secretary general was previously designated for his ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps–Qods Force and its former commander, Qassem Soleimani.
