The PKK, the Kurdish separatist group that has waged a decades-long secessionist movement inside Turkey, recently announced its decision to lay down its weapons and likely abandon its cause. However, the conditions of the compromise the opposing sides have reached are shrouded in secrecy, and many wonder if lasting peace will be achieved. Peace between the PKK and Turkey will have regional implications spanning the stability of Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
Iranian and Armenian special forces conduct their first joint military exercise near the two countries’ shared border, while Azerbaijan mediated talks between Israel and Turkey over Syria.
Turkish plans to establish a presence and air defenses on Syrian soil would hinder Israel’s operational freedom, a situation Israel is unlikely to accept in the post-October 7 Middle East.
Reports that Turkey is attempting to restructure the Syrian army have yet to be verified, but several developments and reported plans highlight Turkey’s growing military support for the new Syrian state.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) signed an agreement with Syria’s interim government, integrating the SDF’s 100,000-strong, mostly Kurdish force into the new Syrian military. The deal likely represents a calculated risk by the SDF to curtail Turkish aggression, especially if the US withdraws from the country.
On February 27, Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan called for his group to disarm and end its conflict with Turkey. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria have welcomed this statement, which may provide an opportunity for Turkey to change its policy in Syria, affect US policy, and impact SDF relations with the new government in Damascus.
Tehran’s recent setbacks have paved the way for Ankara’s ascent. The Ankara-backed Azerbaijan’s triumph over Tehran-backed Armenia, Turkish-supported militias outmaneuvering Iran’s influence in Syria, and now, the unraveling of the Iran-backed PKK further tilts the balance in Turkey’s favor.
On January 29, Ahmed al Sharaa was declared the new president of Syria in the transitional government that came into power after the collapse of the Assad regime on December 8. This declaration led to congratulations from several Arab states in the region, and the Qatari emir arrived in Damascus on January 30, the first head of state to visit the new ruler. These developments are part of a broad diplomatic outreach by Sharaa and his new foreign minister.
Clashes in Syria have increased at the Tishrin Dam, a strategic site on the Euphrates River around 30 miles south of the Turkish border controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, a collection of former Syrian rebel groups, has been seeking to take the dam since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8.
Turkey has steadily increased its foothold in the central Sahel by providing arms, security assistance, and more to regional juntas. Similarly, The Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), Al Qaeda’s branch for the Sahel and West Africa, is on its own upward trajectory, standing as one of the region’s most dominant violent actors. The jihadist group’s external messaging suggests it perceives Turkey to be an obstacle as it seeks to expand its territorial control and influence.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan aims to play a central role in post-war Gaza. However, the West should closely scrutinize Turkey’s involvement, especially given Erdogan’s reliance on SADAT, Turkey’s premier private military company, and its Islamist ideology and ties to terrorist organizations.
Since Turkey and Syria broke off relations in 2011, Ankara has played a prominent role
in fighting Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in Syria by supplying material support to insurgent groups seeking to overthrow Assad and maintaining forces in the opposition-held northwest. However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Assad recently signaled they are interested in restoring diplomatic ties.
Iran signed a new arms agreement with Armenia, seeking to increase its influence in the Caucuses and counter Israel-Azerbaijan military ties.
A recent meeting between Turkish aid organization representatives and the Taliban’s deputy prime minister highlights renewed economic and investment interest by Turkish entities in Afghanistan. The Taliban’s growing ties with Turkey are a worrying development as Afghanistan remains a haven for terrorists and narco-state.
Bill and Joe are back with an update on the latest from Israel and Gaza. Today they’re also joined by their FDD colleague and Turkey expert, Sinan Ciddi, to unpack just how deep Turkey’s relationship is with Hamas.
Another caliph is dead. A new one, Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Quraishi, has been appointed.
In recent weeks, a Taliban delegation led by Zabihullah Mujahir visited Turkey to meet with various officials including senior Hamas members.
Shabaab killed at least 100 people at the same place where it killed upwards of 500 civilians almost exactly five years ago.
The U.S. Treasury Department announced today that two money men working for al Qaeda and Hay’at Tahrir al Sham (HTS) have been designated. The designations are part of a broader U.S. effort to sanction individuals and entities taking part in the Syrian war. Other extremists and parts of Bashar al-Assad’s regime were also designated and sanctioned as part of the campaign.
Two prominent jihadist ideologues, Sheikh Abdullah al-Muhaysini and Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, are engaged in a war of words over Erdoğan’s Turkey. The relationship between the jihadists in Syria and Turkey has long been a point of contention and the heated rhetoric reveals that it isn’t likely to subside soon.
Hosts Tom Joscelyn and Bill Roggio discuss al Qaeda’s problems in Syria, where a series of disputes have upset the group’s chain of command.
In the span of four days, the Al Qaeda branch has claimed the use of two suicide car bombings on Somali and Turkish military bases in two different areas of Somalia.
After many years of conflict in Syria and Libya, the involvement of Turkey, Russia and other powers is leading to increasingly sophisticated clashes between the latest UAV and air defense technology. The use of new technology has ramifications for future conflicts in the Middle East and provides an emerging model for how regional powers are fighting proxy wars to redraw the balance of power in the region.
Recently, Hezbollah has suffered losses it has not seen in years of fighting in Syria.
The U.S. Treasury Department has announced a new round of counterterrorism designations targeting the Islamic State’s support networks in Turkey, Afghanistan and the Gulf.
The bombing came as Turkey also shelled the city. It is likely that as the Turkish advance continues, the Islamic State will further exploit the chaos inside northern Syria to regroup and conduct more attacks.
The rising of Islamic State sleeper cells could become more common as the Kurdish-dominated SDF is diverted to the newly announced Turkish invasion of northern Syria.
In a message released on Feb. 5, al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri harshly criticizes the jihadists in Syria. He says they are engaged in a misguided “competition” for “imagined authority” over territory that is under the oversight “of secular Turkish checkpoints.”
Abu Hammam al-Shami and Dr. Sami al-Uraydi have rejected a proposal that they say would create a new military council in northern Syria under the leadership of an Assad regime dissident. The proposal was allegedly put forth by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s leaders, whom al-Shami and al-Uraydi have quarreled with in the past.
Hay’at Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the most powerful jihadist organization in Idlib province, has finally issued a statement addressing the agreement reached between Turkey and Russia last month. HTS vows to continue waging jihad, and warns that it doesn’t trust Russia’s “intentions,” but does not directly repudiate the Sochi accord.