Syria’s new leaders hosted a conference at which Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Ahmad al Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al Jolani) was appointed as the president of Syria for the transitional period. Additionally, a number of Syrian armed factions agreed to integrate into a unified army.
Chaos in Syria deepens as a newly formed Iraqi militia vows to defend the Alawites from alleged Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led atrocities and Alawite militias escalate attacks on HTS-affiliated groups in Western Syria, fueling a growing insurgency.
Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, collectively part of the Hashd al Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Units), face increasing calls to place their arms under state control or lay them down entirely. The fall of the Assad regime, a new administration in Washington, and the Gaza ceasefire have put these groups under the spotlight in Iraqi politics.
Clashes in Syria have increased at the Tishrin Dam, a strategic site on the Euphrates River around 30 miles south of the Turkish border controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, a collection of former Syrian rebel groups, has been seeking to take the dam since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8.
Bill is joined by show regular Edmund Fitton-Brown to discuss Edmund’s latest analysis for FDD’s Long War Journal: The role of Iraqi Shia militias as proxies in Iran’s Axis of Resistance.
Ahmad al Mansour, an Egyptian national and former member of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) in Syria, has reportedly been detained in Syria after threatening Egyptian President Abdel Fatah el Sisi. The Islamist militant is an Egyptian Naval Academy graduate with ties to the 2011 Egyptian revolution. Mansour left Egypt for Syria in 2013, where he joined Islamist rebel factions before aligning with HTS.
Israel faces continued threats in Lebanon despite the recent ceasefire, which approaches the important milestone of its first 60 days. On January 13, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out strikes on several Hezbollah targets, “including a rocket launcher site, a military site, and routes along the Syria-Lebanon border used to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah.” Israeli troops also continued searching for weapons and dismantling terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
Shadi Mohammed al Waisi, Syria’s newly appointed Minister of Justice in the transitional government, has come under scrutiny after videos from 2015 surfaced showing him ordering executions while serving as a Jabhat al Nusrah judge. Born in Aleppo in 1985, he rose through the ranks of various sharia courts in rebel-held areas before the fall of Bashar al Assad in December 2024, issuing verdicts that included executions and amputations.
The US military conducted a series of operations with “partner forces” in Iraq and Syria over the past week, part of a continuing effort to degrade the Islamic State and prevent it from filling the security vacuum left by the collapse of the Assad regime.
Beginning on Friday, January 3, the newly appointed minister of defense of the Syrian Interim Government, Murhef Abu Qasra, initiated a series of meetings with leaders of armed factions to discuss integrating these forces into a unified Syrian army. FDD’s Long War Journal has identified and profiled the majority of those in attendance.
On December 21, Abu Mohammad Jolani, also known as Ahmad al Sharaa, convened a meeting with numerous leaders of Syrian armed factions and local figures to discuss plans for unifying these militias into a new Syrian army. FDD’s Long War Journal has identified and profiled many of those who participated.
A recent declaration by the League of Arab States chastising Iran for “inciting strife among the Syrian people” and the weakened positions of or hedging by Tehran’s regional proxies signal Iran’s diminishing influence.
US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf said the bounty was lifted on Abu Mohammad al Jolani because it would be “a little incoherent […] to have a bounty on the guy’s head” as she sat down to talk with him. The US government currently lists Jolani as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist for his ties to Al Qaeda and Hayat Tahrir al Sham as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
Abu Mohammad al Jolani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), has announced plans to dissolve existing factions and form a unified national army under centralized control in post-Assad Syria. The question is: who will constitute the core of this new national army?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz visited the peak of Mount Hermon on December 17. The IDF seized the peak in the wake of the fall of the Syrian regime of Bashar al Assad on December 8. “The IDF is here to protect the communities of the Golan Heights and the citizens of the State of Israel from any threat, from the most important place where it is possible to do so,” Katz said. The IDF is preparing to remain in areas that were previously a buffer zone between Israeli and Syrian forces along the border.
Israel’s Bashan Arrow operation in Syria continues. The Israelis have strengthened their presence in the Golan Heights DMZ and targeted more critical assets belonging to the former Assad regime.
US Central Command continued to target the Islamic State’s network in Syria after the collapse of the Assad regime. Twelve Islamic State fighters were killed during an operation that also targeted terror camps.
Worth approximately $10 billion, the illicit captagon drug trade served as a financial lifeline for the Assad regime in Syria. Since Bashar al Assad’s ouster, new details about narcotrafficking operations and the extent of regime involvement have come to light.
The Turkistan Islamic Party is an Al Qaeda branch that fights under the banner of Hayat Tahrir al Sham, the Salafist jihadist terror group that led the overthrow of the Assad regime and is forming a new Syrian government.
The sudden collapse of the Islamic Republic’s closest state-actor ally stunned the world as Syrian rebels captured Damascus in just 11 days after launching a new wave of insurgency. To deflect this humiliating defeat, Iranian officials have claimed that the Tehran-Damascus alliance had been weakening and that Iran no longer aimed to preserve the Assad dynasty. However, leaks from Tehran and insights into Iranian regional strategy tell a different story: Iran was incapable of safeguarding the Syrian regime, and its collapse has sparked internal divisions among Iranian officials.
The Biden administration is reportedly debating removing Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) from the list of designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations. However, while the group’s leader, Abu Muhammad al Jolani, a Specially Designated Global Terrorist, attempts to portray HTS as moderate, a host of jihadist groups—many designated as Foreign Terror Organizations—fight under the banner of or are allied with HTS.
After the collapse of the Assad regime, Israel embarked on a widescale operation in Syria to neutralize potential emerging threats. Dubbed “Operation Bashan Arrow,” the massive undertaking resulted in Israel decimating 70–80% of the former regime’s military and the destruction of its chemical weapons facilities and caches.
Between December 8 and 10, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck more than 300 targets in Syria aimed at eliminating military assets that might fall into the wrong hands and threaten Israel. The strikes targeted air defense systems, missile sites, and Syrian Air Force bases where abandoned warplanes were present. The IDF also eliminated the Syrian Navy fleet. “We have no intention of interfering in Syria’s internal affairs; however, we do intend to do what is necessary for our security,” stated Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
The Southern Operations Room, a coalition of armed groups active in southern Syria, was the first to enter Damascus, forcing Bashar al-Assad to flee. Although not formally affiliated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the coalition’s shifting allegiances over previous years have heightened uncertainty regarding the situation in post-Assad Syria.
The significant US operation against the Islamic State is part of the effort to degrade the terror group and keep it from gaining ground in areas held by Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the wake of the Assad regime’s collapse. The attacks may also serve as a warning to the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) not to push too hard against the SDF, America’s flawed ally in Syria.
On December 8, Syria’s Assad regime fell from power, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu journeyed to the Golan Heights. “This is a historic day for the Middle East. The collapse of the Assad regime, the tyranny in Damascus, offers great opportunity but also is fraught with significant dangers,” Netanyahu said. Israel sent additional troops to the Golan on December 7 and conducted training to confront the developments in Syria. The IDF also seized part of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, part of a buffer zone between Israel and Syria.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem gave two speeches after the November 27 ceasefire that discussed Hezbollah’s next steps. In his first, he didn’t mention Hezbollah’s withdrawal from south of the Litani River. However, he made an about-face in his second speech, perhaps under Israeli military pressure and due to the situation in Syria. Qassem also discussed cooperating with the Lebanese government to reconstruct areas damaged during the war.
Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz met with Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi on December 5 as the situation in Syria shifts rapidly. “The IDF monitors developments and is prepared for all scenarios, offensive and defensive alike. The IDF will not tolerate threats near the Lebanon-Syria border and will thwart any threat against the State of Israel,” the IDF said in a statement. It is the second high-level meeting Israel has had in the wake of the Syrian regime losing ground to opposition forces. At the same time, the IDF continues to operate in southern Lebanon.
Just a year ago, the Islamic Republic was on the offensive as it used its proxies to launch coordinated attacks on Israel from six fronts to demonstrate the extent of its regional influence. Now, the momentum has shifted. Israeli operations have severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, Syrian rebels backed by Turkey wage a relentless war against Assad, and the United States targets Iranian-backed militia bases across Syria.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out strikes against Hezbollah on December 2, five days after a ceasefire began on November 27. Hezbollah launched mortars toward Mount Dov in northern Israel. The IDF has carried out daily strikes on Hezbollah, including the group’s rocket launchers and vehicles, since the ceasefire, accusing the group of violating the terms of the agreement.