Iran’s nuclear program is in ruins, but the threat is far from dead. Deputy Director of FDD’s Non-Proliferation Program Andrea Stricker and Bill Roggio dive into the desperate gamble Tehran is making at the negotiating table with the US — and the terrifying chemical contingency they might be holding in reserve.
Tehran is shifting the battlefield from missiles to markets, turning the Strait of Hormuz into leverage and testing whether Washington will trade long-term strategy for short-term relief. Bill Roggio and Behnam Ben Taleblu discuss.
CENTCOM denied Iranian claims that a US warship was struck on the same day the US announced “Project Freedom,” an effort to “restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Iran says it’s not in a rush to negotiate, but reality signals something else. Bill Roggio is joined by FDD Senior Fellow Miad Maleki — a former US Treasury sanctions architect — to break down why Tehran walked away from talks, what the Strait of Hormuz blockade is really doing, and why the regime may be under more pressure than at any point since 1979.
FDD Senior Fellow Edmund Fitton-Brown joins Bill Roggio to assess the current state of the Iran War. From the dual blockade in the Strait of Hormuz to the failed peace negotiations, they consider: Why did Pakistan step up as mediator? Can Tehran stretch the Houthis for even more leverage in the Red Sea? Has the war pushed the Gulf States closer together?
US and Israeli forces conducted an impressive campaign that significantly degraded Iran’s primary elements of military power. The operation did not, however, destroy these capabilities outright or eliminate Iran’s ability to project meaningful power outside of its borders.
Iran and its allied militias launched numerous drones and missiles against regional countries between April 2 and April 8, continuing attacks after a ceasefire between Iran and the United States was announced yesterday. Across this period, the attacks remained concentrated on the Gulf, Jordan, Iraq, and Iraqi Kurdistan, with repeated mass-interception events in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.
There are conflicting conditions demanded by the US and Iran for lasting peace, and Israeli and Iranian strikes continued after the ceasefire announcement. However, a cessation of hostilities and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping appear to be agreed-upon items. Iranian leaders touted the ceasefire as a victory, while US officials said the objectives of destroying Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities were achieved.
Iran’s increasing use of cluster munitions in ballistic missile attacks since late February has intensified damage across Israel, with dozens of impact sites reported in major cities in the first week of April. Four people were killed in Haifa in a missile attack on April 6. Meanwhile, Israel is escalating strikes on Iranian infrastructure targets and boosting production of Arrow interceptors as part of its multi-layered air defense.
US and Israeli operations inside Iran escalated over the past week. Actions included strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps missile and air defense sites, eliminations of senior military and intelligence officials, the recovery of a US F-15E crew downed over Iran, and attacks on Iranian infrastructure, ranging from petrochemical facilities to major industrial plants.
A pilot of an F-15E Strike Eagle reportedly shot down over Iran was rescued on April 3, while the second crew member remains missing. The downing of an F-15E is the first American fighter jet to be shot down by Iran since major combat operations began in Iran on February 28.
FDD’s Janatan Sayeh is back with Bill Roggio for an update on the Iran war, including: the potential for concrete regime change, last night’s address by President Trump, rumored US-Iran deliberations, the fragile balance of power on the ground, and the possibility of a popular uprising against the wounded Islamic Republic.
Between March 28 and April 1, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones, missiles, and rockets against regional countries—with less overall frequency but more accuracy. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, airports, military facilities, ports, and residential areas.
Washington is considering ground operations as joint US-Israeli strikes impact Iran’s military and internal security forces, reportedly causing thousands of casualties. Simultaneously, Tehran has increased security recruitment efforts, deployed foreign proxy militias, and escalated executions and arrests of Iranian citizens while issuing threats over “sharing images or footage with foreign actors.”
Kharg Island looks like the perfect target — take it, and you choke off Iran’s oil. But it’s not that simple. Bill Roggio is joined by Ryan Brobst and Cameron McMillan to discuss why seizing Kharg could hand Tehran exactly what it wants: a wider war, a vulnerable US position, and a fight on the regime’s terms.
The Houthis launched missile and drone attacks against Israel, the first direct military action since the beginning of the US and Israeli campaign against Iran that began on February 28. The Iran-backed Yemeni terrorist group threatened to continue and expand attacks until a series of conditions it issued are met.
Between March 24 and March 27, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones and missiles against Arab countries. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, airports, military facilities, ports, and residential areas in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan.
Reports citing Western officials suggest that Russia has started supplying Iran with complete drones after Russia was previously suspected of only providing components to improve Iranian systems. The unmanned aerial systems are likely modified, Russian-made versions of the same Shahed-136 one-way attack drones that Tehran previously supplied to Moscow.
The US and Israel continued airstrikes as negotiations over the passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz hit an impasse and Iran ramped up efforts to repress its populace. The regime has expanded internal security checkpoints into a dispersed network across various cities and increased arrests targeting alleged collaborators and dissenters.
A US effort to seize Kharg Island, the Islamic Republic’s critical economic hub, would be a high-risk operation that would likely entail significant costs for little gain. Kharg is much more likely to become a liability than an asset, drawing the Trump administration closer to the war of attrition it is trying to avoid.
Bill Roggio sits down with shipping expert Sal Mercogliano to break down Tehran’s latest act of war: turning the world’s most critical shipping chokepoint into leverage.
Between March 20 and March 23, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones, missiles, and rockets against Arab countries, targeting energy infrastructure, airports, military bases, diplomatic facilities, and residential areas.
The bombs are falling. The Iranian regime is reeling. But revolutions aren’t won from 30,000 feet. As Washington and Jerusalem pummel toward a mission accomplished, Bill Roggio is joined by FDD’s Jon Schanzer to grapple with a harder question that looms: what happens if there’s no uprising when the bombing stops?
Between March 17 and March 19, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones, missiles, and rockets across the Middle East. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, airports, military bases, diplomatic facilities, and residential areas in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq.
The United States, along with its Israeli partners, continues to make considerable progress toward its military objectives of removing Iran’s primary military means to threaten the region in the third week of Operation Epic Fury. Despite these operational successes, however, Tehran and its proxies retain the ability to attack US forces.
US and Israeli operations have continued to degrade Iran’s military capabilities while increasingly targeting the regime’s internal security apparatus. Strikes on Basij internal security and police units, alongside assassinations and reported morale issues, may be beginning to affect the regime’s ability to sustain repression efforts as US and Israeli attacks also expanded to targeting energy infrastructure.
President Donald Trump has identified the Iranian navy as a major target in the US campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran. US forces have struck a range of port infrastructure and key vessels to degrade its capability, destroying more than 100 vessels by March 16.
Overnight Israeli strikes in Iran killed Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani. The eliminations add to the growing list of top Iranian officials who have been killed by Israeli and American strikes since the conflict began on February 28.
US and Israeli strikes against the Islamic Republic are expanding to include additional military infrastructure, command centers, and production facilities. At the same time, the Tehran regime is tightening security across Iranian cities amid reports of arrests, checkpoints, and growing economic pressure.
Between March 13 and March 16, Iran and its allied militias continued launching drones, missiles, rockets, and other attack platforms across the Middle East, targeting energy infrastructure, airports, military bases, residential areas, diplomatic facilities, and oil fields.