Violent explosions hit the Kalsu base in Iraq, amid speculation of Israeli involvement; no party has claimed responsibility. Recent attacks on US soldiers in Syria and Iraq, after a hiatus, may signal a resurgence of violence against US presence, as Iraqi factions debate approaches towards US withdrawal.
The Islamic Republic’s disorganized messaging on Israel tensions reflects its fear of public backlash, revealing internal coordination gaps and anxiety over criticism
Tehran is threatening new attacks in the Middle East after the April 1 Israeli airstrike in Damascus that killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander responsible for smuggling weapons to Lebanon. Analysis of Iranian-backed attacks and U.S. responses in recent months makes clear that a U.S. failure to hit back hard will simply invite more Iranian attacks and risk more American casualties.
Recent attacks by Jaish al-Adl and ISKP showcase Iran’s loosening grasp over its eastern borders. This trend also underscores the growing grievances of Iran’s ethnic minorities, exasperated by systemic neglect, mismanagement, and kleptocracy.
Hezbollah Brigades commander Abu Al-Askari threatens to arm Jordanians with the goal of attacking Israel.
Iran acknowledged the deaths of senior IRGC officers in a significant airstrike against its forces in the Syrian capital.
Israel continues to attack IRGC advisor in Syria on almost a monthly base.
Bill and Behnam discuss reports of Iran sending ballistic missiles to Russia and the potential for subsequent U.S. sanctions on Tehran (and why that’d be insufficient); why the head of the IRGC Quds Force allegedly paid a recent visit to Iraq; an update on the Houthi-Gulf of Aden-Bab al Mandeb-Red Sea theater, including a new underwater drone threat and why if we happen to see the Iranians “de-escalate” in one theater it’s because they’re preparing to escalate in another (and not because they’ve been “deterred”).
Israel targeted two high-ranking Hezbollah commanders in an airstrike in Nabatieh. While the details and outcome remain uncertain, the location of the strike and nature of the targets suggest Israel’s patience is wearing thing with Hezbollah’s ongoing attacks.
Saraya al-Ashtar, a U.S. designated terrorist organization, and Saraya Wa’ad Allah send their condolences and congratulations to the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades.
Al Qaeda continues to build its network and infrastructure in Afghanistan after the fall of the Afghan government. Al Qaeda opened eight new training camps, five madrasas, a weapons depot and safe houses in Afghanistan that are used to facilitate the movement of its members to and from Iran.
Despite the incessant attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthis and Iranian proxy militias in Iraq and Syria, the Biden administration continues to insist it is not at war with Iran.
Israel revealed the existence of Hezbollah’s airstrip back in September. Information available at the time indicated Hezbollah would use it to launch drones to attack Israel. When the group did so last Wednesday, Israel bombed the airstrip.
While ISKP claimed responsibility for the Kerman twin suicide bombings, Iranian state media and officials are downplaying the Afghanistan connection and are instead pointing fingers at Israel. Despite internal crackdowns and heightened security measures, Iran treads carefully to avoid straining relations with the Taliban amid escalating tensions in the region.
President Biden blamed Iranian-backed militias for killing three US service members and injuring others following a drone attack on a base in Jordan.
The Houthis targeted the USS Carney, struck a British petroleum tanker, and forced two merchant marine vessels to turn away from the Bab Al Mandeb Strait.
U.S. forces hit “headquarters, storage, and training locations for rocket, missile, and one-way attack UAV capabilities,” according to CENTCOM. The strike is the eight against the Iranian-backed militias, which have hit U.S. bases more than 150 times since Hamas attacks Israel in October 2023.
The U.S. and U.K., backed by just four other countries, renewed attacks on Houthi military targets. The paucity of countries willing to confront the Houthis, and thus Iran, highlights the difficulty the Biden administration has had in assembling an international coalition to restore calm to the vital shipping lanes.
The attacks against Houthi missiles are no longer being conducted under the aegis of an international coalition, but directly by the U.S. military.
An airstrike in the Syrian capital of Damascus killed five IRGC military advisors, including General Sadegh Omidzadeh. The strike is the second against Iranian advisors in Syria in the past four weeks.
As the Houthis defy the international coalition thatis struggling to keep the Red Sea open to commercial shipping, the Iranians launched a ballistic missile strike on what it claimed was Israeli intelligence assets in Irbil, Iraq.
The Houthis have launched three strikes, including one against a U.S. warship, since the U.S. and U.K. attacked Houthi military targets on Jan. 11 in an effort to restore deterrence. The Houthis have not been deterred.
Bill and Behnam unpack the details they’ve been able to gather so far surrounding the U.S. and UK-led coalition strikes against Houthi targets inside Yemen and discuss whether this will restore deterrence. Accurate preview courtesy of Behnam: “We like to say ‘freaky Fridays’ here [we do not] — it can’t get freakier than the first-ever, historic use of force since October 7 by the U.S. and UK against the Houthis.”
After nearly two months and 27 Houthi strikes against merchant vessels and U.S., British and French warships, the U.S. and United Kingdom launched a series of attacks against Houthis military sites.
One week after threatening the Iranian-backed Houthis for targeting international shipping, the U.S. led coalition has failed to back up its words with deeds. Houthi attacks continue unabated.
Bill and Behnam unpack this week’s headlines from the Middle East, including the assassination of Hamas deputy Saleh al-Arouri; the U.S. strike that killed Iran-backed militia commander Abu Taqwa Al-Saedi in Iraq (and subsequent drama with the Iraqi government); the U.S.-led coalition dubbed Prosperity Guardian’s “final warning” to the Houthis; and the ISIS bombings at a memorial in Kerman, Iran for slain IRGC-QF commander Qassim Suleimani.
Today’s strike is the first to target a commander of the Iranian-backed militias. Abu Taqwa Al Si’adi was a commander in the Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, a U.S.-designated terror organization.
The Houthi attacks “constitute a significant international problem that demands collective action.” The Houthis said that the attacks will continue.
Salih al-Aruri is the first major Hamas political or military leader killed since Hamas and its terrorist allies launched the Oct. 7 rampage on southern Israel.
Four members of Lebanese Hezbollah, and two members of Iraqi militia groups have been killed by airstrikes in Eastern Syria.