Iran remains the “primary and enduring threat” in the Middle East, US Navy Vice Admiral Charles B. Cooper II, the nominee to become the next commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), told the Senate Armed Services Committee on June 24. The Tehran regime can still project power in the region using its ballistic missiles, drones, and proxies. While the Israeli military operation from June 12 to June 24 degraded some of Iran’s capabilities, other elements remained unscathed.
Iran possesses “increasingly sophisticated military capabilities and” a “broad network of proxies and partners,” Cooper wrote in response to advanced questions from the Senate Armed Services Committee. “As seen in the current ongoing conflict, Tehran’s primary power projection tools are its vast ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) inventories.”
Cooper also warned that allowing Iran to possess nuclear weapons “would likely have significant destabilizing military and diplomatic consequences.” A nuclear-armed Iran may lead to “a regional arms race” as “other countries in the region would likely seek to develop or acquire their own to balance power.”
“Iran would become a global hegemon and maintain regional dominance for many years,” Cooper warned.
In addition to Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, drones, and proxies, Cooper highlighted its “formidable maritime capability that is capable of disrupting energy infrastructure and lines of communication.” Iran straddles the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea, and the strategic chokepoint at the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 percent of the world’s petroleum passes through yearly. During the 12-day war with Israel, Iran threatened to close down the strait.
Iranian conventional military capabilities remain a threat
While much of the debate in the wake of the Israeli and US air campaign against Iran has focused on the regime’s ability to restart its nuclear program and forge ahead with building a nuclear weapon, Iran’s existing conventional threats have received little attention. The Israeli Air Force did target elements of Iran’s conventional military, as well as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the Islamic Republic Police Intelligence Organization, the Iranian Public Security Police, and other elements of the regime’s repression apparatus. However, significant areas of Iran’s military and internal security capabilities emerged from the 12-day war relatively unscathed or untouched.
Iran’s aerospace capabilities
Iran’s ballistic missile program provided it with its key offensive capability during the recent conflict with Israel. During the 12-day war, Iran launched nightly barrages of ballistic missiles with conventional warheads at Israel. Although a high percentage of the missiles were intercepted, a small number made it through Israeli and US air defenses and struck their targets.
During these attacks, as well as two other attacks against Israel in 2024, Iran expended a significant proportion of its ballistic missiles; an estimated 700 hundred missiles were fired in two exchanges in April and October 2024, while Iran launched 591 of its medium-range missiles in the latest round of fighting. Additionally, the Israeli Air Force targeted Iran’s ballistic missile storage sites. With Iranian ballistic missile stockpiles estimated at 3,000 prior to Iran firing on Israel in 2024, this inventory has been significantly depleted. Israel estimates that Iran has about 1,500 medium-range ballistic missiles remaining.
The Israeli Air Force also made the ballistic missile launchers, as well as missile component and fuel manufacturing capabilities, a priority target during its most recent campaign. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) estimated that it has destroyed “more than 50 percent” of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers; 200 launchers are thought to be intact.
Iran’s ballistic missiles, launchers, and supporting industry may have taken a heavy hit during Israel’s bombing campaign, but Iran still has the capacity to strike again. Iran can rebuild its infrastructure and manufacture more missiles and launchers, though it will come at a significant cost.
Iranian air defenses
The IDF heavily targeted Iran’s air defense network during its most recent and previous strikes, leaving them severely damaged. The Israeli Air Force achieved air dominance over the Iranian skies and remained unchallenged during 12 days of operations targeting Iran’s nuclear program, manufacturing infrastructure, and key military targets.
By the time the US Air Force launched its strike on the three Iranian nuclear sites of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, Iranian air defense batteries were a non-factor. Iran can attempt to rebuild its air defense network via foreign purchases, but this effort will also be extremely costly.
Iran’s Air Force
Iran’s Air Force, a mix of aging US-supplied F-14s, F-5s, and F-4s, as well as Russian, French, and Chinese jets, sat on the sidelines instead of attempting to repel Israeli or US aircraft. The Israeli Air Force destroyed three Iranian F-14s and two F-5s during the operation.
The IRGC also operates a limited number of aircraft. Given the age of the fleet and the timidity of its leadership, the Iranian Air Force has little offensive punch and is, at best, a defensive force against adversaries with equal or lesser capabilities. However, Iranian drones pose a real offensive threat. Iran manufactures its own drones, which have been supplied to its proxies, including the Houthis, and allies, such as Russia.
Navy assets
The Iranian navy and its IRGC counterpart survived the Israeli attack relatively unscathed. The likely reason is that the bulk of Iran’s naval forces do not pose a direct threat to Israel; the Israelis prioritized Iran’s nuclear program and key scientists, the ballistic missile systems, the air defense systems, key military leaders, and weapons manufacturing.
However, the Israeli Air Force targeted a naval facility that may have housed drones, as well a site that is believed to be “an IRGC coastal cavern housing missile boats,” as well as an intelligence-gathering ship that has been used to provide the allied Houthis targeting information in the past, The Maritime Executive reported.
Iran’s navy can harass and interdict shipping in the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea, and the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC Navy has over 125 patrol boats that can and have been used to interdict shipping. Additionally, Iran can use drones, short-range surface-to-surface missiles, and other assets to target tankers and other vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz as well as in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean.
Ground forces
While the Israeli Air Force targeted key leaders of the Army and IRGC, as well as headquarters and bases, Iranian Army and IRGC-Ground Forces components survived the conflict largely intact. Like the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force, the regime’s ground forces do not present a significant threat beyond its borders. However, in the case of the IRGC, these forces are key to keeping the Iranian regime in power.
Elements of Iran’s military infrastructure, particularly its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and its air defenses, have been hit hard during the 12-day war. However, Iran still possesses the capacity to wreak havoc throughout the region, particularly with its ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz and its relationship with its terror proxies.
