Tehran’s leaders anticipate another war with Israel and have instructed their proxies to remain on high alert for a potential attack wave. Jerusalem has not ruled out the possibility of a new conflict with the Islamic Republic and is optimistic about a green light from Washington.
Israel and Iran indirectly agreed to a ceasefire on June 24, yet a wave of explosions and the mysterious death of an IRGC general over the past week have disturbed the relative calm in Iran. The regime has attributed every explosive incident to “gas leaks,” despite contradictory evidence. Israel has remained silent on these events but likely maintains intelligence superiority and the capacity to conduct operations in Iran.
Israel continued military operations in Lebanon between July 7 and July 13, 2025. These activities included targeted killings of terrorist personnel, including a smuggler for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a senior Hamas operative.
In late June, the US Treasury Department sanctioned the largest group of Houthi-connected entities, individuals, and vessels so far. The action targets oil importations and sales, which are a key revenue source for the Yemeni terrorist group. It is the latest move to limit the Houthis’ finances since the Trump administration re-designated them as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) on March 4.
In testimony to the Senate Armed Service Committee, incoming CENTCOM Commander Vice Admiral Charles B. Cooper II highlighted the nuclear, conventional, and asymmetrical threats posed by the Iranian regime. While Israel and the US focused their short campaign primarily on Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missiles, large elements of Iran’s conventional assets survived unscathed.
After nearly two weeks of high-intensity conflict, US President Donald Trump announced on June 23 that Israel and Iran had reached a ceasefire agreement. The announcement followed a flurry of kinetic activity: Iran launched missiles at the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in response to American strikes on its nuclear infrastructure, while Israel escalated its air campaign against Iran, targeting missile systems and the regime’s core repression institutions.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked US forces at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in response to the June 21 US airstrikes against three Iranian nuclear facilities.
Following US strikes on three nuclear sites, Tehran has threatened to target American bases in the Middle East, continue missile attacks on Israel, and close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims the strikes were anticipated, uranium was moved from Fordow in advance, and Iran is preparing for a potential six-month war.
Iran conducted four attacks against Israel on June 22, including a mid-size missile barrage launched shortly after the United States targeted several Iranian nuclear installations. The attacks caused significant damage in Tel Aviv and Central Israel but no deaths.
Over the past 72 hours, Israel has intensified its air campaign across Iran, striking missile and drone infrastructure in Esfahan, Bushehr, Ahvaz, Yazd, and Qom. Targets included the Imam Hossein missile base in Yazd, IRGC drone and air defense facilities, and the Shahid Mostafa Khomeini military base. Senior IRGC and IRGC-Qods Force commanders tied to weapons transfers, regional proxy coordination, and nuclear development were killed. Despite Tehran’s calls for retaliation, Hezbollah, Hamas, and other allied militias have mostly stayed out of the fight so far.
Israel expanded its campaign against Iran with strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sites, missile infrastructure, and nuclear-linked facilities, reportedly killing a nuclear scientist in Tehran. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) framed the attacks as targeting the Iranian regime’s repression and appealing to public discontent. Talks between Iran and EU officials on June 20 brought no breakthrough, as Tehran ruled out abandoning uranium enrichment.
Israel has expanded its military campaign against Iran with targeted strikes on nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and security institutions. Leadership changes within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) point to a tightening of internal control, while cyberattacks have disrupted Iran’s banking system and fueled public anxiety. Tehran’s threats toward US regional bases continue as Washington weighs possible military involvement.
Israel struck key Iranian military sites across Tehran, Karaj, and Kermanshah, destroyed air defenses, and hacked state TV, urging protests. Iran responded with internet shutdowns and claims of foiling Israeli plots. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s recent emergency video reflects rising tensions after Trump’s demands for Iran’s surrender.
As new operations unfold, Tehran appears cornered—its highest military leadership decimated, banking networks disrupted, and supreme leader underground. With Western powers weighing escalation, the coming days could determine whether this conflict ends in negotiation or spreads further across the region.
As Israel expands its precision strikes across Iran, the US has publicly denied involvement in Israel’s campaign while quietly ramping up military deployments. With Iran’s missile stockpile dwindling and its top regime officials either dead or in hiding, Israel’s campaign is now targeting critical infrastructure and propaganda hubs. Meanwhile, Tehran has intensified a domestic crackdown, even as public unrest grows louder.
Israel launched a sweeping campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and senior military leaders, with strikes reported at Natanz, Fordow, and across Tehran. Mossad-led covert operations neutralized key assets and personnel, while Iran vowed retaliation and also blamed the US for the assault.
Amid deadlocked nuclear talks, Iran’s military leadership issued new threats on June 4, vowing to confront the US and Israel with force. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials rejected Washington’s latest proposal as unacceptable, while Tehran repositioned air defenses around nuclear sites and warned of retaliation if Israel strikes unilaterally.
Finland officially named Iran as a state actively conducting espionage operations within its borders, a designation previously reserved only for Russia and China. The regime in Tehran has accelerated terror plots and intelligence operations across the US, Europe, and Israel.
An Iranian delegation led by the regime’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics attended the 13th International Defense Exhibition (IQDEX) in Baghdad on April 20, showcasing Iran’s latest drones, missiles, and anti-air defense systems. The attendance reflects a pattern of Iran positioning itself as a regional arms exporter and military patron.
Iranian and Armenian special forces conduct their first joint military exercise near the two countries’ shared border, while Azerbaijan mediated talks between Israel and Turkey over Syria.
Amid mounting proxy losses and a major US military buildup across the Middle East, Iran has placed its armed forces on high alert and warned neighboring states against facilitating a potential American strike. Tehran is suffering setbacks in Iraq and Yemen while ramping up deterrence through inflammatory propaganda.
Iran has reportedly ordered its military personnel to leave Yemen amidst the growing US bombing campaign. The move reflects a broader pattern of the Islamic Republic recalibrating its regional strategy in response to the Trump administration’s moves to curtail Tehran’s influence in the Middle East and threats to potentially strike Iran’s nuclear sites.
Amid rising tensions with the US, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has increased its military presence in the Persian Gulf. Over recent months, Iran has intensified exercises on islands located along a vital maritime corridor for global energy transit. Over one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Persian Gulf, making it a key geopolitical hotspot.
Tehran’s ambitions extend beyond backing Shia and Sunni Islamist groups in the Middle East. On March 13, the US Treasury Department sanctioned Sweden’s Foxtrot gang for its ties to the Iranian regime, underscoring Tehran’s longstanding practice of cultivating criminal networks across Europe and the Americas to assassinate dissidents and target American, European, and Israeli interests.
In a rare escalation, a group of armed men with nationalistic aspirations clashed with regime security forces in the southwestern city of Izeh. Livestreamed footage captures the final moments of four surrounded men, one of whom takes his own life rather than face arrest.
Recent statements by Islamic Republic officials indicate Tehran’s staunch commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and achieving “final victory.” These threats may signal a renewed escalation in the region after Israel’s crippling blow to Iran’s missile arsenal and the collapse of the Islamic Republic’s Syrian ally.
Four years after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the threat posed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has expanded beyond the region, now endangering both America and Europe. With the group actively recruiting and transferring fighters across borders, regional actors such as the Taliban, Iran, Tajikistan, and Pakistan have proven unable to curb its growth.
Iran’s intelligence network is not a monolithic entity but a web of competing and cooperating factions that execute the regime’s global ambitions. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Quds Force, and Ministry of Intelligence each play distinct yet overlapping roles in conducting assassinations, abductions, and sabotage operations worldwide. While institutional rivalries persist, their shared objective—suppressing dissent and expanding Iran’s geopolitical reach—ensures continued collaboration.
Bill is joined by show regular Edmund Fitton-Brown to discuss Edmund’s latest analysis for FDD’s Long War Journal: The role of Iraqi Shia militias as proxies in Iran’s Axis of Resistance.
The Tehran regime faces significant challenges, including the diminished influence of its regional proxies and the potential for an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities. In response, the Islamic Republic has devised a three-pronged strategy: bolstering morale through propaganda, conducting extensive military drills as a deterrent, and amplifying support for its remaining proxies.