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The Lost Territories
North Waziristan and Quetta: Pakistani Tribal regions continue to slide into the hands of the Taliban and al Qaeda The Afghan-Pakistan border regions. News from Pakistan’s western tribal belt is less than encouraging these days. The Taliban and their al Qaeda backers continue to operate from safe havens within Pakistan, particularly in North Waziristan and Quetta. The Taliban have fought the Pakistani Army to a standstill, and forced them to largely remain in barracks in the North Waziristan agency capital of Miranshah. Beheadings of suspected U.S. spies are now commonplace; the bodies of the two latest victims “were dumped at…
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The Battle Against Sadr Intensifies
Signs indicate the Iraqi government and the Coalition are putting additional pressure against Muqtada al-Sadr and his radical Mahdi Army The fighting between the Iraqi Army and the forces of Iranian backed radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army earlier in the week has increased the tensions between the government and the militia. The battles in Diwaniyah resulted in fifty Mahdi militiamen killed, twenty troops from the Iraqi army, and up to 80 civilians dead. One day after a truce was called in the town of Diwaniyah, Iraqi Defense Minister Abdel Qader Jassim Mohammed has called it off. According to…
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The Battle for Baghdad Continues
Sadr’s Mahdi Army and political party become targets of the Iraqi government Baghdad and Operation Together Forward. Green is cleared, Yellow is ongoing operations, Red is untouched. Diamonds indicate locations of violence. Operation Together Forward, the plan to secure Baghdad, is still in its second phase, with Iraqi and Coalition forces clearing and securing the most violent neighborhoods. As we mentioned earlier, the Iraqi government and Coalition are executing the operation of the course of months, not weeks. “This thing’s going to be conducted over many months, and the idea was to get into focused areas, reduce the level of…
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A Hard August for the Taliban in Afghanistan
The “Taliban Offensive” continues to produce Taliban bodies but the Taliban and al Qaeda continue to grow in Northwestern Pakistan The Taliban’s summer of 2006 “offensive” continues to produce inordinately large numbers of Taliban casualties with little to show for the slaughter. But the Taliban still possess its bases of operation in northwestern Pakistan, and churns out fighters for the Afghan front. The Taliban has largely eschewed the established hit-and-run harassment tactics common in successful insurgencies, and has chosen to engage Afghan and Coalition forces en masse. The results have been deadly – for the Taliban. In battle after battle,…
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Aftermath of the Hezbollah-Israeli War
Disarming Hezbollah no longer an option Israel’s failure to fully pursue Hezbollah in the region below the Litani River in southern Lebanon as well as in southern Beirut and the Bekaa Valley is a model of what not to do when fighting terrorist organizations. The Israeli government’s strategy of over reliance on air power during the first two weeks of the campaign, which was then followed by overly conservative ground campaigns in southern Lebanon, allowed Hezbollah reach its desired goal of a negotiated solution which would essentially allow it to maintain its power in the country. Last week, the Jerusalem…
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Islamic Courts Consolidates Power in Somalia
Map of Somalia, recent gains by the Islamic Courts marked in red. Click map to view. Somalia continues the slide into the darkness of a radical Islamist state. Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the al Qaeda linked leader of the Islamic Courts is consolidating power in Somalia by taking control of vital lines of communications, organizing the army of the Islamic Courts, and instituting shariah law throughout the areas it controls. As Daveed Gartenstein-Ross has noted, the Islamic Courts have taken control of the port cities of Harardhere, Eldher and Hoyobo, as well as Beletuein on the border with Ethiopia. The…
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The Ongoing Battle for Baghdad
Phase 2 of Operation Together Forward is in its early stages. Click map to view. The city of Baghdad, as well as Baghdad Province has become the epicenter of violence in Iraq. In a recent press briefing, Major General Bill Caldwell stated an estimated eighty percent of the violence in Iraq is occurring in Baghdad province. The Iraqi government must establish some semblance of control over the city. Baghdad is the political center of Iraq, as well as the focal point for the foreign media, which plays a large roll in influencing international opinion on Iraq. The legitimacy of the…
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The Kidnapping of Jill Carroll
Jill Carroll, the Christian Science Monitor reporter who was kidnapped by insurgents in Iraq last January and released 82 days later, has begun to tell the story of the long days she spent in captivity following her kidnapping. In a series called Hostage: The Jill Carroll Story, Jill provides a first person account of her kidnapping, the murder of her partner, and her initial days in captivity (the first few installments of the series are currently online). This is a fascinating look at the thoughts and feeling of a victim of a kidnapping plot, and the mindset and operational methods…
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Rehman, Rauf, suspected London Airline Plotters Captured, and the Pakistani Connection
Wanted photo of Matiur Rehman. Click photo to view. Two of the suspected ring leaders of the al Qaeda London Airline Plot to destroy aircraft en route to the United States have been captured by Pakistani intelligence. Matiur Rehman, who is believed to be a high-ranking leader in al Qaeda’s Pakistan operations, was captured in the Pakistani city of Bahawalpur. Rashid Rauf, who is described as “the planner of the attacks who recruited people to take part in the plot,” was also captured in the city of Bahawalpur. His arrest just prior to the announcement of the airline plot is…
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MNF-Iraq Update on Al-Qaeda in Iraq
Major General William Caldwell’s August 16th briefing on the state of counterinsurgency operations in Baghdad also includes an interesting, extended look at efforts to fight al Qaeda in Iraq and intelligence gleaned from the terror organization based on the capture of detainees (as well as the examination of documents, computers and other materials, which are not mentioned in the briefing). According to Maj. Gen. Caldwell, Coalition forces have obtained ” unique insight into the plans and operations of al-Qaida in Iraq and what they are doing to achieve their goals.” Al-Qaeda in Iraq remains a potent force behind the sectarian…
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Podcast at Global Crisis Watch
On Sunday afternoon Richard Lafayette and Nick Grace of Global Crisis Watch interviewed Daveed Gartenstein-Ross about the London Airline Plot and counterterrorism efforts. Also, I participated in a round table forum with Nir Boms of the Center for Freedom in the Middle East and Leah Soibel of the Israel Project. The topic was the war between Hezbollah and Israel, and the implications of the cease fire.
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After Action Report: Winners and Losers in the Hezbollah-Israel War
With the cessation of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel largely holding after 24 hours, it is time to look at the likely winners and losers of the Hezbollah-Israel war. Israel spent the weekend scrambling to reach the Litani River and consolidate their positions south of the river before the fighting ended, launching an attack which amounted to too little too late. The negotiated cease fire implemented by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, has lead to a major political victory for Hezbollah, Iran and Syria,and dealt Israel, Lebanon and the United States serious setbacks. The Winners: Hezbollah: Hezbollah achieved what…
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Matiur Rehman, the London Airline Plot and the Road from Pakistan and Talibanistan
Matiur Rehman, image from ABC News Like the 7/7 London Tubes bombing in 2005, the London Airline Plot to destroy over 10 airplanes transiting from London to the United States is being traced back to Pakistan. Pakistan’s Daily Times reports seed money was sent to Pakistan under the guise of earthquake relief and diverted to fund the airline attack. “Muslim Charity of UK remitted… a huge amount of money under the head of “earthquake relief” to the accounts of three individuals in three different banks – Saudi Pak Bank, Standard Chartered and Habib Bank Ltd.” According to B. Rahman of…
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To the Litani River; Heavy Fighting in Rashaf, Marjayoun
Southern Lebanon. Green indicates Israeli occupied town; red IDF warned towns of operations; yellow Israeli airstrikes; orange clashes. Click map to view. The government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has given the Israeli Defense Force the final approval to conduct the ground assault to the Litani River in southern Lebanon. “According to military sources, close to 70 percent of the Katyusha rockets raining down on Israel are fired just south of, and north of the Litani river. It is in these parts of Lebanon that the Hizbullah’s Nasser Unit is waiting with thousands of fighters and functioning command and control…
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London Airline Bombing Plot News, Day Two (updated at 2:40 pm)
Twenty-four Britons have been arrested in the London Airline plot, and the Bank of England has suspended the bank accounts of 19 suspects. Nineteen of the suspects are Muslim men between the ages of 17 to 35, and have been identified as “Abdula Ali, Cossor Ali, Shahzad Ali, Nabeel Hussain, Tanvir Hussain, Umair Hussain, Umar Islam, Waseem Kayani, Assan Khan, Waheed Khan, Osman Khatib, Abdul Patel, Tayib Rauf, Muhammed Saddique, Assad Sarwar, Ibrahim Savant, Amin Tariq, Shamin Uddin and Waheed Zaman.” At least two of the suspects “had converted to devout form of Islam.” Two of the suspects are reported…
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Israeli Cabinet Votes to Push Deeper into Southern Lebanon
The Israeli Cabinet vote on the authorization for the Israeli Defense Force to expand ground operations in southern Lebanon highlights the government’s lack of a cohesive plan at the war’s outset and the hesitation to take the fight directly to Hezbollah on the ground. At the start of the war, the initial plan was to establish a 1-2 kilometer buffer zone and patrol southern Lebanon via air. This morphed into a 6-8 kilometer buffer, which was basically the posture of the Israeli Defense Force up to the withdrawal from Lebanon in 2002. Hezbollah’s continuous shelling of northern Israel has shown…
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IDF Commando Raid South of Tyre; Abandoning the Litani?
Southern Lebanon. Green indicates Israeli occupied town; red IDF warned towns of operations; yellow Israeli airstrikes; orange clashes. Click map to view. Israeli Defense Force commandos have conducted another behind the lines raid in Hezbollah territory, this time in the town of Ras al-Biyada (Al Bayyadah on the map), which sits on the Lebanese coast about five kilometers north of the Israeli border. Reports indicate 30 to 40 commandos were inserted by helicopter near Ras al-Biyada, the target being an apartment complex. Five Lebanese are reported to have been killed and 8 IDF commandos were wounded. The Ras Al-Biyada raid…
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Doctored Reuters Photo of Beirut and the Manipulation of the Media
“We are in a battle, and that more than half of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media. And that we are in a media battle in a race for the hearts and minds of our Ummah.” – Ayman al-Zawahiri, in a letter to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi Reuters’ faked photograph of Beirut burning, by Adnan Hajj. Click to view full size at Little Green Footballs. Ayman al-Zawahiri’s words do not only apply to his al Qaeda and affiliated groups, but to all terrorist organizations. Terrorists do not employ terror tactics because of their military strength, but…
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IDF Commando Raid in Tyre; Iranian Missile Resupply
Southern Lebanon. Green indicates Israeli occupied town; red IDF warned towns of operations; yellow Israeli airstrikes; orange clashes; dark blue IDF commando raid. Click map to view. The naval commandos of Flotilla 13, one of the Israeli Defense Force’s elite units, conducted a raid into the heart of Tyre, striking at what is described as “those responsible for the firing of strategic weapons from a vehicle inside a built-up neighborhood.” The target was a Hezbollah missile team located on the second floor of a 16 floor apartment building in the dense, urban environment of Tyre. The commandos from Flotilla 13…
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Israeli Cabinet Continues Debate Over Ground Campaign
The Israeli government continues the debate over the shape of the proposed buffer zone in southern Lebanon, as well as the shape of the campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Haaretz reports that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz are at odds over how deep the IDF should push into Lebanon. Peretz advocates all the way to the Litani River, while Olmert appears to support the current plan to maintain the 8 kilometer buffer zone.
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The Southern Lebanon Offensive and the New Buffer Zone
Southern Lebanon. Green indicates Israeli occupied town; red IDF warned towns of operations; yellow Israeli airstrikes; orange clashes. Click map to view. The Israeli Defense Force is probing hard across the entire Lebanese border, from Metulla to Marwahin. Eight Israeli brigades, at about 1,000 soldiers per brigade, plus supporting units (engineering, artillery, reconnaissance, communications, logistics) are currently engaged inside southern Lebanon. “IDF troops had established positions overlooking 11 south Lebanese towns and villages up to six kilometers north of the Israeli border,” according to Haaretz. The southern Lebanon battle map has been updated to include the position of Israeli troops…
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IDF Commando Raid in Baalbek, Deep in the Bekaa Valley; Hezbollah Members Captured
Location of Israeli airstrikes in the Bekaa Valley and Tyre, and the raid on Baalbek. Click map to view. Israeli commandos made a bold strike deep into Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, the heart of Hezbollah’s empire. Israeli helicopters, backed by the Israeli Air Force, inserted an unknown number of commandos, who proceeded to the target, a Hezbollah-run hospital which is believed to have sheltered senior Hezbollah commanders. This operation appears to have been carried out in conjunction with a series of air strikes in the Bekaa Valley, including attacks on Hermel, another Hezbollah strong hold and crossings at the Syrian border.
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A Change in Strategy: IDF to Expand Ground Campaign in Lebanon
Southern Lebanon. Green indicates Israeli occupied town; red IDF warned towns of operations; yellow Israeli airstrikes; orange clashes. Click map to view. The government of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agreed to “expanded ground operations in Lebanon,” after an early morning vote by the Israeli security cabinet. Senior officers in the Israeli Defense Force have pushed for deploying Israeli troops as far north of the Litani River, but the Israeli government has been vague on this point. If the IDF pushes to the Litani River, this would be a shift in strategy from a week ago.
