Afghan-Indian agreement heralds a strategic shift in the region

Signaling a shift in policy, Afghanistan and India have signed a strategic partnership agreement. Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh signed the document, which includes provisions for both security and economic cooperation, earlier this month in New Delhi. This is the first time Afghanistan has made such an agreement with any country, at least since 1979.

The document has three notable provisions.

First, India will help train Afghan National Security Forces. India will train and mentor Afghan army and police personnel in Afghanistan, and Afghans will attend training academies in India. India will also assist in equipping the Afghan forces. The agreement does not include any deployment of Indian combat troops to Afghanistan. Both countries already share intelligence information.

Second, India will furnish Afghanistan with economic aid and assistance. The agreement provides an additional $500 million on top of the $1 billion India has already spent since 2002. In addition, India and Afghanistan will cooperate in the development of mining and energy production.

Third, Afghanistan and India will establish a strategic dialogue between their respective national security advisers “to provide a framework for cooperation in the area of national security.”

The agreement leaves open the possibility of even closer ties in the future. The Indian prime minister has said that India will support Afghanistan as it assumes the responsibility of governance and security after the withdrawal of international forces.

Strategic significance

This agreement signals a shift in policy for Afghanistan and India. Up until now, India has played a very limited role in Afghanistan in spite of India’s national interest in the country. This has been largely due to Pakistani sensitivity to the issue of Indian presence in Afghanistan. Significant Indian involvement in Afghanistan has been seen by Pakistan as a threat, an attempt by India to encircle Pakistan. Accordingly, the US and Afghanistan have sought to maintain relations with Pakistan, even if it meant keeping Indian relations at arm’s length.

The new pact indicates that Afghanistan’s strategic calculation has changed. Maintaining a relationship with Pakistan is no longer the top priority, and Indian support for Afghan development is now a higher priority. This does not mean, however, that India and Afghanistan have decided to disregard their relationships with Pakistan entirely. Both Afghanistan and India have attempted to reassure Pakistan in the wake of the agreement. Speaking in New Delhi, President Karzai said:

Pakistan is our twin brother, India is a great friend. The agreement we signed with our friend will not affect our brother ….This strategic partnership … is not directed against any country … this strategic partnership is to support Afghanistan.

Similarly, the Indian prime minister said after announcing the agreement: “Our cooperation with Afghanistan is an open book.”

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20 Comments

  • gerald says:

    Karzai is a lot smarter than most people give him credit for. The Taliban are just waiting for us to pull out of the region before launching a full out assault on the Afghans. If India sticks to the agreement this will spark a regional conflict that would place Pakistan in a war on two fronts that they could not possibly win. ISI will be neutralized at a stroke of a pen.

  • AMac says:

    I’m curious about the communication and transportation aspects of close Afghan-Indian cooperation. Kabul is about 400 miles from New Delhi as the crow flies — but that crow must traverse Pakistani airspace.
    If Islamabad frowns on that route, it’s possible to only double the distance, by overflying China. Pakistan’s again-BFF China.
    Failing that, one could depart from an airfield on the Indian coast, proceeding west over the Indian Ocean, turning north over the Baluchi area of eastern Iran, and proceeding to Kandahar. An 800 to 1000 mile trip.
    Without the blessing of overflights of Pakistan, China, or Iran, direct travel or air freight between India and Afghanistan would seem to be nearly impossible.

  • jayc says:

    “Pakistan is our twin brother, India is a great friend. The agreement we signed with our friend will not affect our brother…”
    President Karzai, the only one that believes this is the village idiot.

  • cjr says:

    jayc:
    In politics, there are many occasions where you have to say things whether you believe them or not. Anyone who is married understands this concept very well. 🙂

  • Scott says:

    Recently, President Karzai said that in event of hostilities between the United States and Pakistan, Afghanistan would side with Pakistan. Since the independence and partition of the Indian sub-continent after the Second World War, Indian and Pakistan have been at a virtual and at times actual state of war.
    I believe that this understanding between Afghanistan and India is certainly a good move on Karzai’s part, and it will certainly help ease the problems that will occur with the departure of NATO and the other allies. However, I doubt that Pakistan and China will passively accept it.
    If it is a sincere understanding that leads to an Indian presence in Afghanistan, it represents an acceptance of a considerable risk to India.
    In my opinion, I believe that United States has committed to support India’s actions, but of greater importance to explain India’s courageous move is the recent discovery of substantial rare earth minerals and hydrocarbons reserves in Afghanistan.

  • Mr T says:

    About time. At least India isn’t full of whackos trying to force their religion on the whole world by threat of death and violence. Faith can not be forced on you or its really not faith. Who ar ethe other players in that region. Iran, China, Russia. Ugh. I take India for $2 billion Alex.

  • indus says:

    3 possible scenarios once we leave:
    a) Talib continue to fight Karzai/sucessor
    b) Talib join the elected Afghan government
    c) Talib take over Afghanistan
    The Indo-Afghan agreement would be defunct in case c and replaced with similar agreement with Pakistan in case b; Pakis being Talib sponsors and of same religion, and therefore preferred partners for Talibs.
    In case a, the agreement reduces to a pact with remnanats of Afghan northern alliance, with economic component deferred due to continued war.
    This agreement is thus no substitute for US/NATO presence, which is not sustainable at its current cost. So long as Pakis have a free hand, there is little hope for Afghans (unless they want the Talib solution).

  • gudien says:

    Pakistan remains in ‘driver’s seat’ because of geography. Afghan-Indian agreement will be shortlived.
    What did the Indian government receive from the US government that made them willing to sign this paper?

  • sanman says:

    Option D – take the fight to the Pakistanis.
    Pity no one’s ever tried that. I strongly feel that Karzai or whoever his successor is, should definitely go for that option above all others.
    Karzai should take help not just from the Indians, but also Moscow and Beijing in order to fight the Taliban and Pakistan.
    Pakistan is only winning because it’s throwing all the punches while all the other side does is duck. The other side needs to start throwing punches at Pakistan, and then the complexion of the war will change.

  • blert says:

    Sanman….
    Moscow is a complete non-starter: something about a very ugly war…
    China is tightly allied with Pakistan. Between the two, Kabul would be thrown over the shoulder.
    Like it or not, Karzai is hitched to our wagon and vice versa.

  • Joe says:

    I wonder how many women and children Pakistan will have to murder to counterbalance half a billion dollars worth of develop aid.

  • Charles says:

    The ISI should know that this move by Karzai would be natural after they killed his brother and Rabbani — afghan chief negotiator with the Taliban. Heck the ISI will kill Karzai if they get the chance. Lord knows they have tried. So Karzai has to build legacy right now. He has seen the shadow of death.

    The feckless mercilessness by the ISI has caused Karzai to think deep because he has to think of the world now in which he does not live.

    What Karzai’s move does is change the end game. The USA showed the prize around which the end games works. Afghanistan sits on a trillion dollars plus of natural resources.

    Its likely that Pakistan sits on a comparable amount–or a trillion dollars in natural resources of their own as well– but because the ISI is stupid as well as evil, they cannot figure out how to exploit their own natural resources. But rather the ISI covets the Afghan’s natural resources.

    The end game for the ISI is control over afghan natural resources. Where groups like the Haqqanis serves as ISI liassons/catspaws. Likely, the Haqqanis and Taliban pay the ISI a portion of their drug money as protection. The ISI would naturally see this relationship extend into natural resources. The US pays protection money to the Taliban in certain sections of Afghanistan to keep the roads open. Likely part of this money goes to the ISI as well. So the ISI would also naturally think that in the future protection money will be paid to the ISI for the transport of natural resources. The ISI as well receives most or all of the money the USA pays them for use of the supply road through Pakistan. So the end game would also involve high tariffs on Afghan minerals exported through Pakistani territory.

    So when considering the end game the big question is how would the Afghans kill ISI money flow.

    Karzai is currently relying on the USA to kill the Taliban and the Haqqanis and allied groups through which the ISI exercises power in Afghanistan. Who knows. Maybe the USA can kill them all. The Taliban and related groups don’t have that many fighters. US intelligence and lethality improves daily. There is two years before the time the US says it will withdraw. The US doesn’t need many men on the ground to kill Taliban and Haqqanis and related groups.

    Behind the front — the afghans would be well served to build on both the Chinese and their Indian relationships. These two will balance each other. The Chinese already have considerable long term mining interests in Afghanistan. But for the Afghans to complete their move away from the Pakistanis they need to have at least two more long term open routes out of Afghanistan.

    The Iranians are causing too much mischief right now to be dependable. Nevertheless, the Indians at some point might broker & finance a deal for a railroad through Iran to the sea in exchange for an interest in Afghan resources. Iranian routes would balance routes through Pakistan.
    But both Russia and China would provide better routes out as well. The Hindu Kush might prove to be too forbidding and expensive for even Chinese engineers to track a railroad to their border. But given current Chinese mining interests in Afghanistan–the Chinese might be interested in funding better railroads that run up into Russia–and then track east to China. Similarly, the Indians might be interested in funding railroads into one of the three Stans just north of the Afghans.
    Redundant routes out of Afghanistan for Afghan resources is the key to Afghan reliable exporting success. No country on the Afghan border would be able to extort high tariffs from the Afghans if the Afghans could simply reroute their natural resources through a different country.

    So that in order to keep the Afghans out of the hands of the Taliban and the ISI–the US cedes the fruits of war to Russia and China and India and maybe Iran.

    That’s how loathsome the ISI has become.

    Happy Halloween.

  • naresh c. says:

    Without air support from US, the only way Karzai can last against ruthless Taliban is to become ruthless like Abdul Rashid Dostum. But that won’t go well with the US and Europe. If Taliban end up taking over Afghanistan, they will not be content with ruling over just Afghanistan. Sooner or later they will attack Dagestan and Chechnya, which has a tendency to draw Russia in. Or they will provide support to pan-Islamist terrorists (like AL Qaida), which has a tendency to draw US in.
    History repeats itself. Without US support, Pakistan’s economy is going to collapse soon and that is the only game changer in this endless cycle of history repeating itself.

  • Ali Syed says:

    After a decade of WOT,The Nato and Isaf are still on the other side of table i.e.(Losing side).they still didnt make or prevail peace in any kinda shape..
    tHE AFGHAN RESISTANCE (talibans) are still on the driving seat..they hold their major strong holds, & even show their power in the Kabul where world hv witnessed many of their direct assults..
    The allies are stationed or we can say cornered to their bases ..when even they go for petrol ,they are welcomed with IEDs and there choppers are hit just outside of their bases…
    My question is ,Is this the way that the allies are tring to win the war?? or now putting another trap the Indian -afghan strategic alliance that can promote their agenda?? simply its wont work.it just create more choas and a civil war in afghanistan.India is not a neighbour state nor hv any interst in afghan restructuring. it just want to pressurize and to create terrorist activities in FATA and balochistan throug their counselates..So,its not the solution but another dirtywar seeds which HV TO REAP BY AFGHANS AND PAKISTANIES…So,Plz try to understand the ground realities and gravity of the situation …Phuktoons are the dominate ethnic ,if you put them out of reconcilation process..how peace can prevail? & as for as pakistan is concern..They didnt want indian influence on their western borders..simply
    So if a work is done on these steps, suerly a better layout can be possible..where a win-win situation can be made.

  • Charu says:

    This was a stupid half-measure pact to bring out in the open. It does nothing except to double Pakistan’s paranoia without providing any teeth to the bite. It would have been more decisive if Karzai had simultaneously signed an agreement with the US, Russia, Iran and India. That would put ChiPak on notice that Afghanistan had powerful regional and global partners who will act in concert to prevent a Taliban takeover.
    However, Sanman is absolutely correct that the fight needs to be taken to Pakistan. Their biggest fear is that the Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand line will unite and shrink their nonhistorical Punjabi empire. And that is exactly what all the countries that Pakistan has covertly attacked need to strive for, along with support for an independent Baluchistan to give the Pashtuns access to the sea that doesn’t depend on the Punjabis. When the Pashtuns realize that they have no chance of taking Kabul (and only the US can credibly assure this) then they will turn on the Pakistanis.
    The Punjabis know this very well, which is why they are fighting a vicious proxy war against ISAF while hiding behind their sovereignity as an independent state. We can either recognize this existential fear that the Punjabis have and give into their concerns (ignoring the sacrifices we have made for over ten years, and their treachery in sheltering bin Laden, the Haqqanis, Mullah Omar and the Taliban, while taking in billions of dollars from our coffers), or pay them back with interest. Either way, I believe that the Punjabis have dangerously overreached and have bitten far more than they can chew given that they are a bankrupt and impoverished state, and that it is going to blowback spectacularly on them. They have made way too many powerful enemies and the long knives will be out for them.

  • Vienna,Nov 1,2011
    Speculations apart, realities are to be confronted.
    That is the significance of the agreement. The terror
    exporters tend to over look the rest of the world is
    watching them.The terrorists and their backers behave
    like the blind.For example how on earth the sand lang
    kingdom Prince Khaled Bin Talal announce upping a Mullah

  • mike merlo says:

    Since 9 11 the Big 3 – Russia, Communist China, India – have quietly supported US efforts in Afghanistan & expanded them significantly over the last decade.
    Increased levels of collaboration among the the ‘Big 3’ has also accompanied the reciprocal arrangements with the US & Afghanistan.
    If the ongoing ‘pace’ continues it’s just a matter of time before the SCO surface’s as the worlds largest contiguous economic & military bloc.
    Since the ‘episodes’ with Uighurs in Xinjiang Communist China in an unusual expression of openness chastised Pakistan. Since then Pakistan’s relationship with Communist China has & continues to grow more distant.
    Probably within the next decade or so if not sooner we can expect to see Communist China to lay track or pipe, probably both, across Afghanistan to Esfahan Iran(oil).
    This is just the ‘front end’ of an obviously evolving process in which the ‘Big 3’ pursue the lead role in determining arrangements on the Eurasian landmass with emphasis on Asian.

  • mike merlo says:

    Since 9 11 the Big 3 – Russia, Communist China, India – have quietly supported US efforts in Afghanistan & expanded them significantly over the last decade.
    Increased levels of collaboration among the the ‘Big 3’ has also accompanied the reciprocal arrangements with the US & Afghanistan.
    If the ongoing ‘pace’ continues it’s just a matter of time before the SCO surface’s as the worlds largest contiguous economic & military bloc.
    Since the ‘episodes’ with Uighurs in Xinjiang Communist China in an unusual expression of openness chastised Pakistan. Since then Pakistan’s relationship with Communist China has & continues to grow more distant.
    Probably within the next decade or so if not sooner we can expect to see Communist China to lay track or pipe, probably both, across Afghanistan to Esfahan Iran(oil).
    This is just the ‘front end’ of an obviously evolving process in which the ‘Big 3’ pursue the lead role in determining arrangements on the Eurasian landmass with emphasis on Asian.

  • I Think americans have atlast found the Suckers they wanted. Without land border how can India do any justice to this agreement.$ 2 billion to bottomless Afghan pit. Chinese have already cornered the copper and iron ore mines. Indians must let Taliban or even Haqqani take over Afghanistan.These Talibsl never allowed Russians to rule, will not allow the USA and bloody well never allow the Pakies.

  • Colin says:

    I suspect that China will support it, as they have their own Muslim problems. Plus it draws India’s focus and efforts away from them. doubt China has any love for Pakistan and is playing a card to make money and force India to guard 2 borders. having India also protecting Afghanistan is all good from a China point of view.
    Iran and India have an ok relationship if i recall correctly, so they could pass stuff that way. Afgahnistan relaying on India is likely good for ran as India is not a threat and it helps reduces the possiblity of the Taliban succeeding.

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