Last updated: March 17
Iraq’s Independent High Election Commission has released partial results, by province, for the 2010 parliamentary election. Prime Minister Maliki’s State of Law Alliance has taken the early vote lead in Baghdad, Basrah, Babil, Najaf, Karbala, Wasit, and Muthanna, while former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s secular Iraqi National Movement (Iraqiya) party leads in Ninewa, Diyala, Anbar, and Salahadin, and has a slim lead in Kirkuk (Tamin) over the Kurdish Alliance.
The Iraqi National Alliance, which is made up of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, Ahmed Chalabi, and the Sadrists, and is considered to be the favorite of Iran, leads only in Maysan, Qadissiya (Diwaniyah), and Dhi Qhar. The Kurdish Alliance is far in the lead in Irbil, Sulimaniyah, and Dohuk, and is only behind the Iraqi National Movement in Kirkuk by a little more than three thousand votes.
It is still early in the vote count to declare definitive winners and losers, but the early trends show that Maliki and Allawi’s lists are slated to pick up the majority of the seats in the new parliament. Maliki’s early dominance in Baghdad and Basrah ensures his party will have a major showing, and even in the southern Shia provinces where he is trailing the Iraqi National Alliance, only in the small province of Maysan does the latter have a double-digit lead.
Allawi’s list also shows that it has the potential to become a national party. The Iraqi National Movement has picked up double digit vote percentages in the southern provinces of Babil, Wasit, and Qadissiya, and is approaching double digits in Basrah and Muthanna. Both the State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance have had poor showings in the Sunni provinces of Anbar, Ninewa, and Salahadin.
Early on, the Iraqi National Alliance looks to be the loser in the 2010. Despite the reports of a Sadrist resurgence and widespread discontent with the inability of Maliki’s government to provide services at the local level, Iraqis have largely shunned the Iraqi National Alliance. So far, only in Maysan has the party received at least 50 percent of the vote, and elsewhere it has broken 40 percent in only three provinces, Najaf, Qadissaya, and Dhi Qhar.
“Partial Election Results for 13 Governorates Released by IHEC,” Historiae.org
“Early Iraqi Election Results Update,” Musings On Iraq
“Results: Iraq’s 2010 parliamentary election,” The Majlis