Analysis: Baitullah's death will impact operations Pakistan and Afghanistan


Originally published at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

Reports from Pakistan indicate that Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud was killed during a US airstrike that took place on Aug. 5 in South Waziristan. While it is a victory for the US and the Pakistani government, Baitullah's death may provide the Pakistani government and its military with an excuse to opt out of entering South Waziristan to clear it of the Taliban.

Baitullah was reported to have been visiting his second wife at a compound run by his father-in-law, Ikramuddin Mehsud. Unmanned US strike aircraft, probably the Predators or the more sophisticated Reapers, fired four missiles at the compound. Baitullah, his wife, his brother, and seven bodyguards are thought to have been killed.

Late yesterday, US and Pakistani intelligence officials began to suspect Baitullah had been killed after there were reports of a funeral. Additionally, family members whispered he was killed. Reports have also emerged that the Pakistani Taliban is meeting to appoint a successor. Pakistani officials, who have a terrible track record of reporting the deaths of senior Taliban and al Qaeda leaders, are certain Baitullah is dead.

Earlier today, Faqir Mohammed, Baitullah's deputy in the Bajaur tribal agency, confirmed that Baitullah was indeed killed in the strike; other Taliban leaders made similar statements.

Impact of Baitullah's death in Pakistan and Afghanistan

The effects of Baitullah's death on the Taliban's efforts in Pakistan and Afghanistan are likely to be mixed.

In Pakistan, the government and military may seize upon Baitullah's death to declare victory in South Waziristan and end the military blockade and air strikes aimed at defeating his Taliban forces. The military has previously stated it does not want to move into South Waziristan by force and has no intentions of taking on other influential Taliban leaders in the region, such as North Waziristan's Hafiz Gul Bahadar and the Haqqani Family, and South Waziristan's Mullah Nazir .

An end to operations by the Pakistani government in South Waziristan would negatively impact NATO operations in Afghanistan, as pressure on the Pakistani Taliban would be lifted, allowing them to redouble efforts in Afghanistan as opposed to defending their territory in Pakistan's northwest.

The death of Baitullah will cause a crisis in the Pakistani Taliban's leadership, and may disrupt operations in the short term. Although the Pakistani Taliban has often been described as disparate, Baitullah effectively united the factions and directed operations that led to the Taliban's takeover of significant territory in Pakistan's northwest. The Taliban will expend time and effort determining Baitullah's successor, restructuring the group's leadership, and outlining its new direction. Attacks in Pakistan already had decreased over the past month as the Pakistani Army took on the Taliban in Swat. Since going underground, the Pakistani Taliban have been regrouping and are planning the next phase of their insurgency. It is unclear if the Taliban will refocus effort onto Afghanistan or continue attacks against the Pakistani state.

The new Taliban leader may decide to conduct strikes against Pakistani security forces and their tribal enemies as a show of force. Baitullah rules through fear and was known as an effective commander. His successor may feel the need to demonstrate his own power.

In the wake of Baitullah's death, the Pakistani Taliban will also be forced to devote more of their resources to improving security. Meetings and movements will become more difficult, and efforts to root out suspected spies will increase. The costs of increasing personal security for Pakistani Taliban leaders will negatively affect their ability to meet, plan, and direct coordinated operations.

In Afghanistan, however, Taliban operations, at least in the short term, will most likely not be impacted by Baitullah's death. Local Taliban commanders have wide latitude in deciding how to use their forces, and many will continue to sortie forces across the border. Some may choose to hold forces in reserve, fearing a Pakistani Army assault, but the Army has been hesitant about committing forces after devoting its energy in Swat.

In both Pakistan and Afghanistan, the selection of Baitullah's successor will have a significant impact over the long term. If a leader such as Hakeemullah Mehsud is chosen, the Pakistani Taliban probably will continue attacks against the state. Over time, the Pakistani military will be forced to act against a leader such as Hakeemullah, who has actively directed military and suicide operations against the Pakistani state and NATO convoys moving through the Khyber Pass into Afghanistan.

Al Qaeda itself will not be significantly affected by Baitullah's death. The terror group has developed a vast network with a wide array of contacts. Its training camps and safe houses are spread throughout northwestern Pakistan. Baitullah was a close ally to al Qaeda, but South Waziristan leaders such as Mullah Nazir, Hakeemullah Mehsud, and Qari Hussain Mehsud will continue to champion the al Qaeda cause.

Background on Baitullah Mehsud

Baitullah was appointed the leader of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, in December 2007 after local Taliban groups in Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province and the tribal areas met to select a leader. After his rise to power, he oversaw the Taliban takeover of the tribal areas and in several districts in the Northwest Frontier Province. He was behind numerous suicide attacks throughout Pakistan, and has been directly implicated in the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto shortly after her return from exile in late 2007.

Based out of South Waziristan, Baitullah had become the most prominent Taliban leader in Pakistan. He commanded tens of thousands of well-trained fighters, who conduct suicide and conventional attacks against Pakistani, Coalition, and Afghan forces. Since 2004, Baitullah's fighters have defeated the Pakistani Army in several engagements.

In the fall of 2007, Baitullah defeated the Army and Frontier Corps in several engagements in South Waziristan. In one instance, he took captive an entire company of Pakistan regular troops, or more than 300 men. In January 2008, the Pakistani Army invaded South Waziristan, but soon agreed to a cease-fire after abruptly ending the operation.

Baitullah was closely allied with Osama bin Laden and with Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar. Al Qaeda shelters in Baitullah's tribal areas and maintains scores of training camps and safe houses in the region.

Baitullah had openly stated his intention to conduct attacks against the United States and the West. He "poses a clear threat to American persons and interests in the region," the State Department said earlier this year, when it offered up to $5 million for information leading to his capture.



Advertisement:


READER COMMENTS: "Analysis: Baitullah's death will impact operations Pakistan and Afghanistan"

Posted by bb at August 7, 2009 6:22 PM ET:

The Pakistani army has been meaning business ever since last April when the Taleban were threatening Islamabad? Furthermore they appear to have been co-ordinating closely with US airstrikes, going by the buildup of reports-of-action here during the last 3 months. Also the enlistment of local tribes. This seems classic Iraq.

So why would they stop now? Reports that they may cease operations in Waziristan are more likely to be disinformation, surely?

Posted by KaneKaizer at August 7, 2009 6:35 PM ET:

If the Pakistani offensive stops, killing Baitullah would have been a strategic victory for the Taliban! They should take advantage now, while there is a leadership struggle, to launch their ground offensive.

Posted by chatiii at August 7, 2009 8:03 PM ET:

not too long ago, the pakistan army claimed that they will not invade south waziristan with ground troops, but would only blockade roads going in/out and they would conduct air strikes. now that baitullah is dead, i personally think the pakistan army will declare victory over the region and will pull back from operations.

i also think that such moves would be better for the pak army because right now, the taliban are hungry for blood with the loss of their overall leader....their morale and will to fight to the death has been multiplied with the death of baitullah mehsud (this is contary to what a lot of people think), so a ground invasion by pak troops will result in a blood bath followed by deadly suicide attacks with in lahore and islamabad

Posted by Cordell at August 7, 2009 9:57 PM ET:

chatiii:

The most effective and destructive attacks against an enemy all require good planning, coordination and target surveillance. While the Taliban may be angrier and more motivated after Baitullah's death, they will also be more likely to strike without thinking. This will mean more Taliban will die and their attacks will be less effective.

A few years ago, the Taliban attacked NATO forces head on with hundreds of soldiers -- and died by the hundreds in the ensuing battle with negligible NATO casualties. They quickly learned their lesson. Now, they mainly attack NATO forces remotely via IEDs, along with the occasional small-group suicide attack against high-value targets, (e.g. embassies, Western hotels, military bases).

Attacking without careful planning is like a fighter who lowers his guard to deliver a punch. If his opponent can react fast enough and deliver a counter-punch, the flailing fighter will typically end up on the canvas.

Posted by Neo at August 7, 2009 10:38 PM ET:

Good analysis on this in the NYTimes. It's nice to see the AP has finally developed some reliable "go to" reporters and sources that seem to have some grasp of the situation and the players.

Pakistani Taliban Head's Death a Blow to Militants
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/08/07/world/AP-AS-Pakistan.html

Posted by Minnor at August 7, 2009 10:44 PM ET:

It is great morale booster for Pakistan, which was very much needed.

He might have been against Pak or NATO, he manufactures bomb and guns, and of course sells it to fellow terrorists. So a clear and leave op is still needed in SW. No hurry because SW is cordoned from all directions.

Posted by Neo at August 8, 2009 8:04 AM ET:

Stop the bus!

Baitullah is being resuscitated. Maybe?
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2009621956_apaspakistan.html

The Taliban doesn't sound particularly convincing this time.
Time will tell.

Posted by Rhyno327 at August 8, 2009 11:20 AM ET:

YES. They may act w/out planning and leave themselves vulnerable. This is good. As said above, direct contact w/ Western forces=casualties. For THEM. Lets hope they come out to fight. As for the situation in PAK, the Mehsuds will just promote another from within. So, wat will change? The PAK problem must be adrresed sooner, rather than later.

Posted by yash at August 9, 2009 8:19 AM ET:

Baitullahs death is a setback to US. Pak is not acting Siraj Haqqani, Moulvi Nazir, Hafiz bajadur etc who are fighting against US. They wanted the US help to eliminate Baitullah and Fazlullah who were fighting against Pak. Now Paks job is done. US has been taken for a ride again.