Tehran and its regional proxy groups have threatened retaliation against the United States and Israel as Washington moves additional military assets into the Middle East after the regime’s lethal crackdown on protesters. Regime-affiliated outlets and proxy leaders have outlined various retaliation scenarios, including drone swarms, maritime disruption efforts, and suicide attacks.

Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shiite militia, warned the United States that if Washington launched a war with Iran, the group would attack American bases in the region. The threat comes amid rising tension between Washington and Tehran as the Islamic Republic continues a brutal crackdown on demonstrations that began nearly three weeks ago.

Iranian-backed militias in Iraq are reportedly considering an initiative to disarm and place their weapons under government control. The militias, part of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), have been incorporated as independent units within Iraq’s security forces since 2016. Kataib Hezbollah, one of the most powerful of militias, has rejected disarmament, while the US lauded the potential development.

Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militia, was involved in a deadly shooting at Iraq’s Ministry of Agriculture on July 27. Despite the support for Iran-backed militias from many Shiite politicians, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani announced the results of an investigation that found the militia responsible for the incident and recommended consequences.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio voiced American objections to pending Iraqi legislation concerning the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an entity largely composed of pro-Iranian militias. Iraq is attempting to pass a law to protect and legitimize the PMF as an autonomous security organization separate from other government military or security agencies.

Tehran’s leaders anticipate another war with Israel and have instructed their proxies to remain on high alert for a potential attack wave. Jerusalem has not ruled out the possibility of a new conflict with the Islamic Republic and is optimistic about a green light from Washington.

Kataib Imam Ali is the sixth Iran-backed Shiite militia in Iraq that has been listed by the US as a terrorist organization. The group’s secretary general was previously designated for his ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps–Qods Force and its former commander, Qassem Soleimani.

Esmail Qaani, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force, arrived in Iraq on May 14 and met with Iraqi National Security Advisor Qasim al Araji. Qaani discussed a security agreement in which Iraq has vowed to crack down on Iranian dissident groups within Iraq. In addition, Iraq’s prime minister and foreign minister said weapons in Iraq should be in the hands of the state.

Iraqi political and militia leaders are reportedly responding to pressure from the US to disband Iran-backed militias in Iraq. However, the progress of government efforts and the ultimate status of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), primarily supported by Iran, remain uncertain.

Former Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi traveled to Houthi-controlled Sanaa in Yemen on March 20, according to reports in Iranian and Yemeni media. His visit occurred as the US continued its campaign of airstrikes against the Iranian-backed Houthis. Sources Abdul-Mahdi was in Yemen to attend a conference in support of Palestinians, but other reports speculated that his visit may be linked to the US conflict with the Houthis and Iran’s historic backing of the group.

Falih al Fayyadh, the head of Iraq’s largely pro-Iranian Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), traveled to Beirut for the funeral of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on February 23. Other senior members of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq also attended the funeral, and several militia leaders put out statements. Hezbollah-affiliated media claimed approximately 200,000 Iraqis came to Lebanon for the event, though this number is unverified.

On February 2, a drone targeted the Khor Mor gas field in the autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Dana Gas, which runs the facility, said that operations continued as normal, and there were no injuries. The same area has been attacked several times in recent years, including by an Iranian-type Shahed drone in April 2024. The US Embassy condemned the attack, and Iraq’s prime minister called for an investigation.

Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, collectively part of the Hashd al Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Units), face increasing calls to place their arms under state control or lay them down entirely. The fall of the Assad regime, a new administration in Washington, and the Gaza ceasefire have put these groups under the spotlight in Iraqi politics.

Bill is joined by show regular Edmund Fitton-Brown to discuss Edmund’s latest analysis for FDD’s Long War Journal: The role of Iraqi Shia militias as proxies in Iran’s Axis of Resistance.

Iraq’s Shia militias play a unique part in Iran’s Axis of Resistance and present distinct challenges for the US, Israel, and the Iraqi state. Notably, a more direct conflict between the militias and the US and Israel would imperil the Iraqi government’s ability to balance its relationships with Iran and the US, along with the country’s essential stability.

President Biden blamed Iranian-backed militias for killing three US service members and injuring others following a drone attack on a base in Jordan.

As the Houthis defy the international coalition thatis struggling to keep the Red Sea open to commercial shipping, the Iranians launched a ballistic missile strike on what it claimed was Israeli intelligence assets in Irbil, Iraq.

Today’s strike is the first to target a commander of the Iranian-backed militias. Abu Taqwa Al Si’adi was a commander in the Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, a U.S.-designated terror organization.

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani also denounced militia attacks on U.S. forces, however he is powerless to stop them. The Iranian-backed militias report to Sudani, but do not follow his orders. They are loyal to Iran.

Three members of Lebanese Hezbollah, including a pro-Assad fighter have been killed by a reported Israeli airstrike in southern Syria. One of the Hezbollah members killed is Hassan Ali Daqduq, son of infamous Hebzollah commander Ali Musa Daqduq.

Unlike three previous strikes by the U.S. military which were intended to deter the militias from attacking U.S. forces, today’s strike targeted a Hezbollah Brigades team that had targeted a U.S. base in western Iraq.
