Future Surrender and the Expansion of Talibanistan

NWFP Governor Ali Jan Orakzai recommends expanding the Waziristan Accord to other tribal agencies, as the Taliban and al Qaeda continue to hit government targets

Governor Ali Jan Orakzai in 2004, when he was a general in the Pakistani Army. Click picture to view.

As we reported just two days after the signing of the Waziristan Accord, and UPI later confirmed, the Pakistani government is seriously considering further negotiations with the Taliban and al Qaeda in Pakistan’s Northwest Frontier Province. Ali Jan Orakzai, the governor of the Northwest Frontier Province, has confirmed the Pakistani government is eager to negotiate a withdrawal from the tribal agencies. “If the treaty signed with tribal elders of North Waziristan proved successful, similar treaties would be signed with tribes in other agencies,” reports the Daily Times

The problem is al Qaeda and the Taliban, along with Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl, the Taliban’s political front and the only active political party in the region, are the real players behind the Waziristan Accord. The Taliban and al Qaeda have repeatedly broken the Waziristan Accord by executing anti-Taliban tribal leaders and “U.S. spies,” and attacking government representatives.

Governor Orakzai also states ‘there had been some reports from Bajaur of stray crossings and due notice had been taken of this.’ Mr. Orakzai omits today’s remote-controlled roadside bombing against a senior Bajaur official in Khar, the seat of government.

North and South Waziristan. Blue arrows = crossing points. Red arrows = smuggling routes. Light yellow lines = roads. Click map to view.

The violations of the truce continue on a near daily basis in North Waziristan. Another Afghan was shot multiple times at refugee camp near Kohat, and was found with “a note on the body saying he was an American spy.”

Tahir Yuldashev, the leader of the al Qaeda affiliated Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and a “foreigner” currently living in North Waziristan, “sent a direct threat to the Central Asian governments” of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. “The mujahideen haven’t forgotten the Muslims executed in Andijan last year. We will avenge Muslims in Central Asia or in Russia Karimov, Rakhmonov and Bakiyev had better remember…that they will be punished for the crimes they are committing,” said Yuldashev in a videotape released on 9-11, just seven days after the signing of the truce.

The terms of the Waziristan Accord explicitly states “foreigners living in North Waziristan will have to leave Pakistan but those who cannot leave will be allowed to live peacefully, respecting the law of the land and the agreement.” Apparently Governor Orakzai does not consider direct threats by “foreigners” living in North Waziristan against foreign governments a violation of the truce.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD’s Long War Journal.

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9 Comments

  • Susan says:

    Here is what I don’t understand:
    Did not Bush say in his State of the Union addresses (don’t know which one exactly) that if any country harbors terrorists that they are considered enemies of the United States?
    Where does that put Pakistan? Now we have Musharrah’s government making a treaty with the Taliban and al-Q.??? I just don’t get it.
    And didn’t Musharrah just have dinner at the White House with Karzai and Bush?

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  • Wally Lind says:

    So why do we continue to consider that Pakistan has any legitimate governmental or territorial interest in Wazeristan,that precludes American or NATO military operations in that area? The Taliban and Al Qaeda are obviouly presenting an immediate military threat to our forces and those of our allies from this territory. It seems to me we would be within international law to attack the sources of that threat, when Pakistan is unable to maintain control in an area that is only technically a part of Pakistan.
    Perhaps the people who say we lost our focus by invading Iraq, will get their wish, in the long run. The 150,000 troops we have in Iraq, may be shifted to Afghanistan, as the Iraqi Army becomes more capable.
    With that kind of force in Afghanistan, raiding ememy forces in the Northwest Territories would be quite easy. Such a campaign would kept our forces combat sharp, and prevent the re-emergence of Al Qaeda as a terriorial entity.
    Eventually we will expand the Army and Marines substantially, and this will be their combat training ground.

  • Steve-o says:

    Susan: The sentence constructions in these matters are very precise, and have meanings within the diplomatic community that may be different from common usage. (Going from memory) I think you will find that Bush said: “Countries that harbor Terrorists will be treated no diffrently from State sponsors of Terrorism.” Such countries apparently are subject to action by the US, but at a time of our choosing. Iran is considered a state sponsor of Terrorism, but has not been attacked (yet).
    Open question: Could something else be at play here? If Pakistan abdicates control of the areas in question, could the US then attack them without getting permission from Pakistan? And could Pakistan say that it has no control over those areas, and thus no standing to forbid US action? Musharref plays Pontius Pilate?

  • Good Captain says:

    I agree Susan. Bill, certainly the President can’t ignore the realities the accord creates (at least not for too long). Do you think Musharraf’s recent visit here was in part to create “new understandings” b/n US & Pak as to what US can do in Waziristan?

  • Future Surrender and the Expansion of Talibanistan

    Courtesy of The Fourth Rail:
    NWFP Governor Ali Jan Orakzai recommends expanding the Waziristan Accord to other tribal agencies, as the Taliban and al-Qaeda continue to hit government targets
    As we reported just two days after the signing of the Wazi…

  • GK says:

    It means that Pakistan was our ally once they thought Bush meant what he said. Russia was our ally at the time too.
    However, now the world has seen that America lacks the capability to win this type of war. America has a fifth column, and America is unwilling to apply massive force even if it makes the difference between winning and losing. Thus, Pakistan (and Iran) know that they no longer need to do as America says. Iran can continue working towards nukes, and Pakistan can continue to harbor the terrorists that the general public favors.
    Pakistan is a neutral country now, not an ally.

  • Wally Lind says:

    The best outcome here would be if Pakistan ceded the Northwest Province to Afhganistan, so we could go in there and take care of this.

  • David says:

    The common denominator in all these machinations, is, I believe, the Pakistani ISI.
    1) They administered much (all?) of the American military and humanitarian aid to the mujahaddeen fighting the Soviets in Afganistan in the ’80’s, and those people were their ‘clients’.
    2) The Taliban was largely their ‘inspired’ creation to gain control of Afganistan (as a base against India).
    3) They are probably very sympathetic, complicit and accomodating to Al Qaeda, and its various permutations. They indeed might be a conduit of intelligence and money from the KSA to al Qaeda in Waziristan.
    4) They probably receive money from Saudi Arabia, outside of the “budget” monies that come from the Pakistani government, to carry out “black ops” that support al Qaeda.
    5) The surrender of Waziristan to Al Qaeda is the first of many signals to come that either Pakistan is about to enter into an open Civil War, or that it will be a base to re-energize the war in Afganistan (against us, no big surprise to the readers of the Fourth Rail); all orchestrated by the ISI.
    6) No, Musharraf will not let Waziristan become an American free-fire zone, or even allow covert warfare against the Taliban/al Qaeda. His neck is on the line, literally. The ISI will probably arrange to have him assasinated (soon) and make it look like the CIA did it. As soon as he makes a special guest appearance with Hugo Chavez, Fidel Castro, or someone similar, his life expectancy will be down to days. I wonder if he realizes this?
    He is presently dancing to the tune they have called, in hopes of saving his life. Unlucky man.

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