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Sa’ud, Syria and Security
Coalition forces maintain the hunt for al Qaeda and insurgents along the Syrian border. Abu Sa’ud, a Saudi al Qaeda commander, and three of his associates were killed when attempting to evade a Coalition dragnet, which was initiated by tips from locals in Ubaydi and intelligence sources. The intel on Sa’ud is interesting; “Intelligence sources believe that Sa’ud recently arrived from Saudi Arabia to shore up the leadership of al Qaeda in Iraq foreign fighter and terrorists cells whose previous leaders have been captured or killed in recent months.” Coalition forces have had great success in decapitating al Qaeda leadership…
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Troops Numbers – Top Up, Draw Down, Overlap and FOB Closings
(Note from Bill Roggio: This post was written by Soldier’s Dad, who has been a valuable source of information on U.S. troop deployments in Iraq.) By now, the entire world is confused about U.S. troop levels in Iraq. Senator Kerry says less troops, Sen McCain says more troops. Gen Casey says some reductions are probable. All three are telling the truth in a sort of political double-speak sort of way. The deployment for Operation Iraqi Freedom Phase III (OIF III) had 17 Brigades + 3 division headquarters. The US troop allocations were as follows North West – 1 Brigade North…
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An Interview with Colonel Davis
Late Friday I conducted an interview with Colonel Stephen W. Davis, the Commander of Marine Regimental Combat Team – 2, who is responsible for fighting in western Anbar province, also known as AO Denver. Col. Davis made himself available for a phone interview via phone, and I appreciate his patience with communications problems (between the the cell and satellite phone it was quite a challenge). Bill: StrategyPage.com recently reported on the creation of the Desert Protect Force to patrol the Syrian border, which is comprised of local tribal groups. Is this accurate? And if so, is the DPF working closely…
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The Cicero Articles
While President Ahmadinejad’s call for the annihilation of Israel elicited (and rightly so) a great deal of international outcry even among the Iranian regime’s staunchest defenders, at some point one must consider that it is far more important what the Iranian government does than what it says. Towards that end, I would like to call the readers’ attention to two articles that have appeared in the German political magazine Cicero over the last year. The first, published last spring, was apparently so concerning to the German government in terms of the information contained that it prompted a raid on Cicero‘s…
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Strikes in Husaybah
Insurgents and foreign fighters continue to take a beating on the border. Yesterday, a senior al Qaeda fighter in the region was targeted with precision air strikes while conducting a meeting with other local commanders. Abu Mahmud is described as a Saudi commanding multiple terror cells in Husaybah, with connections to other facilitators in Qaim, Karabilah, and Husaybah. “Mahmud directed, planned and executed a large amount of the foreign fighter attacks on Iraqi security and Coalition forces, to include most SVBIED and IED attacks. He was also personally active in direct attacks against Iraqi and Coalition forces.” Two other safe…
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The Iranian Problem Revisited
Evidence of Iran’s involvement in international terrorism is indisputable. Iran is the main sponsor of Hezbollah, which has been referred to as the “A-Team” of terrorist groups because of their organization, technical abilities, fundraising, connections and sponsorships. The 9-11 Commission has explicitly linked Iran, Hezbollah and al Qaeda; “Assistance from Hezbollah and Iran to al Qaeda. As we mentioned in chapter 2, while in Sudan, senior managers in al Qaeda maintained contacts with Iran and the Iranian-supported worldwide terrorist organization Hezbollah, which is based mainly in southern Lebanon and Beirut. Al Qaeda members received advice and training from Hezbollah. Intelligence…
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Anbar Journey Update
I’ll have an update on the progress on the trip to Iraq later today. In the meantime, if you haven’t yet donated, please consider doing so today. This is an extremely costly venture and I can use all of the help you can give me. The fundraising has gone real well, but we are only one-third of the way to the targeted goal. I now have press credentials in order to get into the country. I am planning on leaving on or around November 19th. I want to thank all who have generously contributed. I may not be able to…
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Western Anbar Roundup
Military operations continue along the Euphrates River basin as Coalition forces look to consolidate their gains after Operations Iron Fist and River Strike. Several terrorists were killed and a large weapons cache was uncovered during raids on safe houses in the city of Hit. Coalition forces struck a safe house in the town of Ushsh in the vicinity of Qaim. It is believed another al Qaeda leader, Abu Dua was killed in the attack. According to Coalition intelligence, Dua was the “emir of Rawah” who was a facilitator of foreign fighters entering from Syria and Saudi Arabia. He also was…
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Northern Exposure
al Qaeda’s northern network in the Mosul region continues to take a pounding. Over the weekend, five terrorists, including two “senior-level leaders responsible for planning and funding terrorism” were captured based on tips from the citizens of Tal Afar. Two others were killed in a firefight in Mosul. Today, the Coalition announced the two killed in Mosul included al Qaeda cell leader Nashwan Mijhim Muslet (aka Abu Tayir or Abu Zaid) and his assistant. Muslet was a particularly charming terrorist, as was his assistant: His cell was known as the primary beheading cell for Abu Talha, the [former] al Qaeda…
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On the Pod
Shaun Daily of Subject2Discussion has invited me to join his webcast/podcast to discuss foreign affairs and policy. The program will be aired live October 26 from 10pm to 12midnight on the East Coast. If you wish to hear the program you can do so with or without an IPOD by following these instructions: If you have an IPOD, here is the RSS URL: http://podcasts.lvrocks.com/rss.aspx?channelid=5 If you do not have an IPOD you can still listen to the podcast via this address: http://podcasts.lvrocks.com/details.aspx?castid=5 When you click on the address, you will be taken to a screen where you can pick and…
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The Palestinian Hotel; Selective Memory and Outrage
The attack on the Palestinian Hotel has created a media backlash against violence directed against journalists, but not against al Qaeda in particular. Media giant Reuters weighs in on yesterday’s multiple suicide assault. While Suicide bombings have been the calling card of al Qaeda in Iraq and its Islamist affiliates and allies, incredulously, Reuters feigns ignorance of the origin of the attackers; “Until now, the perpetrators remain unknown.” Reuters does not even hazard an educated guess. Reuters is very careful to remind us of the accidental attack on the Palestinian Hotel during Operation Iraqi Freedom, as if the terrorist’s three…
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More Western Raids
The establishment of permanent bases in Sa’dah near the Syrian border during Operation Iron Fist is paying dividends. In two separate raids over the weekend, twenty five terrorists were killed and one captured. Raids during the past two days have yielded similar results. Yesterday, Coalition forces targeted terrorist in the towns of Husaybah and Karabilah. Four suspects were arrested and two car bombs were neutralized. Today, Coalition forces, based on local intelligence from multiple sources, conducted raids in the town of Ushsh. Six terrorists were captured and several others are believed to have been killed. The terrorists continue to use…
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Attack on the Palestine Hotel
After remaining silent during the referendum on Iraq’s constitution and over one week afterwards, al Qaeda in Iraq launches a coordinated attack on the Palestine Hotel. The target choice was carefully chosen by al Qaeda for maximum media exposure as the hotel is widely used by the international media. Reuters said it best; “The bombings [occurred] at dusk in front of rolling television cameras and guaranteed global media coverage.” The Associated Press has a timeline of the events. The attack occurred within a span of four minutes. The numbered events are marked on the accompanying map of the Palestine Hotel…
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A Tale of Two Miqdadiyahs
Miqdadiyah, a city located northeast of Baghdad in Diyala province with a population of 100,000, has quietly made the news over the past month. Iraqi troops recently arrested Ayub Ali, “who is believed to be responsible for a two-year campaign of roadside bombs, political assassination and other attacks in the areas surrounding Muqdadiyah and nearby Baqouba.” Ayub Ali is described as a “gun-for-hire type of criminal” , and it is being reported that he is coopering with the Coalition. Two insurgents were killed while planting a roadside bomb on election night. The Iraqi Army also paid a price as two…
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Back to the Ramadi Problem
The restive city of Ramadi takes center stage as Coalition forces consolidate gains along the Euphrates River. Ramadi has seen an uptick in fighting since September. The New York Time‘s Sabrine Tavernise writes a balanced article on the situation in Ramadi. The article tacks very closely to what we reported in Controlling Ramadi on September 29. The city is a mixed bag, where Coalition forces maintain bases and conduct patrols, but do not fully have control over the security situation. Per Ms. Tavernise’s report: The city has long been a haven for insurgents, but it has never fallen fully into…
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Ops in Baghdad – National Unity
During Operations Iron Fist, River Gate and Mountaineers, it was obvious the Coalition was also pressing an operation in the Baghdad environs. Press reports from CENTCOM made it clear that concurrent operations were taking place as a series of raids resulted in over 250 suspects detained and numerous weapons caches and car bombs were discovered. Major General Rick Lynch disclosed in an October 20th press briefing that this push is called Operation National Unity, which is a combined operation that included over 20,000 Iraqi police and six brigades of the Iraqi Army: Let’s talk about Baghdad — Operation National Unity.…
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Western Raids
Coalition forces continue to strike in the Qaim region on the border with Syria. While prior operations in and around Qaim mainly consisted of airstrikes with ground raids being secondary, the recent strikes along the border appear to be primarily ground raids, with air support being used to destroy weapons dumps and safe houses after the mission ends. Two missions in the region over the past two days indicate this may become more common out west. In a raid on Al Abu Hardan, five terrorists are captured and a major weapons cache is uncovered: Coalition forces raided a suspected al…
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Iraq: Terrorist Training Ground, Killing Field, or Both?
Is Iraq a training ground for terrorists, or the “flypaper” that lures terrorists to Iraq where they are in the reach of the U.S. military? Jim Judd, the director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service calls Iraq a “post-graduate faculty for terrorism” where foreign terrorists are receiving vital training. Mr. Judd’s statement acknowledges that Iraq is indeed flypaper as he admits foreign terrorists are entering the country; his concern is the “bleedback” – the return of foreign terrorists to their homeland, where they can use their new-found skills. There can be no doubt that al Qaeda is gaining tactical experience…
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Securing the Syrian Border – An Unconventional Solution
Efforts to secure the Syrian frontier from infiltration is a key element to defeating the insurgency, as Syria has acted as a safe haven for foreign jihais, al Qaeda and the remnants of Saddam’s Baathists. While some estimates place the foreign jihadis as low as 5% of the insurgency, they make up the most dangerous and violent elements of the insurgency, and are responsible for the mass attacks on civilians that threaten to plunge the country into sectarian conflict. Last August, Security Watchtower provided a graphic on the establishment of the forts and checkpoints along the Syrian border. Strategy Page…
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The Anbar Campaign – A Flash Presentation
By Steve Schippert, Marvin Hutchens and Bill Roggio The Coalition must execute political, economic and military solutions to defeat the insurgency and establish a democratic nation in Iraq. The creation of democratic institutions, promotion of elections, inclusion of minority parties in the political process, co-opting the non-radical domestic elements of the insurgency, and the establishment of Iraqi Security Forces to shoulder the burden of the fight against the insurgency are part of the political realm. The restoration of public utilities and services, relief of foreign debt, rebuilding the oil infrastructure, establishment of a strong currency and other related activities lie…
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Assault on Camp Gannon Repelled; and River Gate Continues
Last spring, al Qaeda unwisely assaulted Camp Gannon, the U.S. Marine outpost located in Husaybah on the Syrian border. While the attack was championed in the press as proof of the strength and staying power of al Qaeda, the terrorists suffered an awful defeat when attempting to attack the Marines en masse. Estimates put the enemy casualties anywhere from 35 to 85%, depending on the size of the assault force, stunning losses no matter which figure is used. Yesterday, insurgents took another stab at Camp Gannon, with identical results as last spring. The attack was repelled and twelve insurgents are…
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The Ramadi Problem
Ramadi remains a focus of insurgent attacks and Coalition efforts to suppress them. Elections turnout during Saturday’s referendum on the constitution was light in Ramadi, with an estimated 2,000 votes cast of a city of over 400,000, and five U.S. and two Iraqi soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb on Election Day. Operation Mountaineers was launched on October 4, and was a cordon and search operation designed to disrupt insurgent activity in the southern neighborhoods and secure a bridge used to transport enemy arms and fighters. On October 14, the day prior to the referendum, Coalition forces conducted raids…
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Back to the Syrian Border
Iraq has successfully conducted its referendum on the proposed constitution with a minimal amount of violence, an estimated thirteen security incidents nation wide. al Qaeda’s Great Ramadan Offensive has failed. The Washington Post reports “Turnout was strong in three heavily Sunni provinces that had been expected to vote against it: Salahuddin, with 75 percent turnout reported by the local electoral director; Diyala, with 65 percent turnout; and Anbar, whose provincial total was not released Saturday.” Pamela Hess explores the potential outcomes of the vote. As the Iraqis focus on the tallying of the votes, attention turns to Syria. Three separate…
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The Constitution Referendum, and the Not-So-Great Ramadan Offensive
The Iraqis have voted on the referendum. Turnout is reported to be high in many areas of Iraq. Saddam’s own hometown in Tikrit is estimated to have had a 78% turnout. Dr. Fareed Ayar, a member of the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq, estimates over 11 million particpated in the ballot, almost 70% of the registered voters. The much touted “Ramadan Offensive”, designed to disrupt the election process and bring the Iraqi people to their knees has failed. Iraqis have voted in places that were formerly parts of Zarqawi’s “Islamic Republic”. Turnout is not likely to be high in along…
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Election Day Eve in Iraq
The referendum on Iraq’s constitution is just hours away. Coalition forces have labored for months to provide a manageable security environment to allow the citizens of Iraq to cast their ballots. The recent operations in Anbar have driven al Qaeda and the insurgency underground in the cities and towns along the Euphrates River. Despite al Qaeda and other Islamist terrorist groups’ threats, security incidents have been light on the day leading up to the election. Nine Iraqis were wounded in two separate incidents in cities of Kirkuk and Baghdad. The offices of the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party were attacked by…
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Haditha, Haqlaniyah and Barwana – A Permanent Presence
Marines from 1st Squad, 3rd Platoon, Kilo Company, 3rd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, search for improvised explosive devices in the city of Haditha, Iraq during Operation River Gate. Operation Hunter, the overarching operation that includes Iron Fist and River Gate, is living up to its reputation of moving Iraqi forces westward and establishing bases in key cities along the Euphrates. Sa’dah, which resides in the Qaim region on the Syrian border, now hosts several outposts to interdict the ratline. The towns of Haditha, Haqlaniyah and Barwana, which are the focus of Operation River Gate, will now host Coalition forces that…
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Sunni Divisions
The constitutional compromise has created an open division between a Sunni party and an Islamist group. The Islamic Iraqi Party, the most influential Sunni-led political party, rescinded its opposition to the constitution and advised its followers to vote “yes” . The Victorious Army Group immediately declared war on the Islamic Iraqi Party, stating the party an instrument of “Jews and Christians against the Muslims in this decisive battle between a constitution made by Allah for His creation.” According to the Victorious Army Group, the Islamic Iraqi Party “should receive from the mujahideen their fate.” Other Sunni groups are reconsidering their…
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Iraqi Security Forces Update
While the debate continues over the number of “fully operational” (Level 1) Iraqi battalions, the Iraqi Security Forces continue to grow and take on a greater role in security operations. The October 12 edition of This Week in Iraq reports on the progress of the Iraqi Security Forces. Their numbers have surpassed the 200,000, mark, with 106,112 serving under the Iraq Ministry of Interior and another 93,959 under the Ministry of Defense. The end state is projected to be 270,000 by the summer of 2006. Security Watchtower charts the progress. The Coalition has turned over twenty seven Forward Operating Bases…
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River Gate Update – Day Nine
While the news from the fighting along the Euphrates River has been sparse of late, the Coalition continues to conduct operations in western Anbar. At this point in time, Operation River Gate mainly consists of targeted raids and searches for insurgent infrastructure such as weapons factories and ammunition dump. There have been twenty six caches of weapons uncovered since River Gate began. The latest find in the town of Anah (near Rawah) was enormous, and the discovery lead to further finds nearby. The Soldiers from 4th Squadron, 14th Cavalry Regiment, assigned to Regimental Combat Team-2, were searching a car bomb…
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Dear Zarqawi: A Letter from Zawahiri, and a Constitutional Compromise
The Office of the Director of National Security has published the much-discussed letter from Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al Qaeda’s number two in command, to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the commander of Al Qaeda in Iraq. The letter provides insight into the workings of al Qaeda, the perception of Zarqawi’s campaign in Iraq and the status of the insurgency. The news that a compromise has been reached to satisfy Sunni concerns over the Iraqi constitution makes the letter all the more important. The are many interesting pieces of information contained within the letter. Zawahiri confirms that Abu Farraj al-Libbi, who was captured in…
