US military confirms Shabaab's emir was target of airstrike

September 2, 2014 6:47 PM
By Bill Roggio

Rear Admiral John Kirby, the Pentagon's press secretary, provided some additional details on last night's airstrike on Shabaab, al Qaeda's official branch in Somalia. Shabaab's emir, Ahmed Abdi Godane, a.k.a. Mukhtar Abu Zubayr, was the target of the strike, which included both drones and manned aircraft, Kirby confirmed. And the strike hit a Shabaab "encampment" south of Mogadishu. From Kirby's press briefing:

Yesterday, at approximately 11:20 Eastern Time, working from actionable intelligence, U.S. special operations forces using manned and unmanned aircraft destroyed an encampment and a vehicle using several Hellfire missiles and laser-guided munitions.

This operation was a direct strike against the Al-Shabaab network, specifically the group's leader, Ahmed Abdi al-Muhammad, also known Ahmed Godane. We are still assessing the results of the operation, and we'll provide additional information when and if appropriate.

Kirby would not say whether Godane or other senior Shabaab leaders were killed. Somali officials said earlier today that Shabaab leaders Muhammad Abu Abdallah, the group's shadow governor of Lower Shabelle; Muhammad Abu Sham, Godane's aide; Ali Muhammad Gulled, a logistics officer; Muhammad Husayn Nur (a.k.a. Abu Hamza Al Ayman); Sheikh Muhammad Dulyaden; Iqri Ubayd, a Sudanese operative; and Mubarak Abdallah, a Yemeni, were all present at the camp during the strike. [See LWJ report, US targets Shabaab's leadership in southern Somalia.]

Shabaab has yet to comment on the strike, which took place at a Shabaab camp located between the villages of Dhay Tubako and Haway along the Shabelle River south of Mogadishu.

The loss of Godane would likely be a temporary setback for the jihadist group. Shabaab has an established leadership cadre, and has proved resilient after losing senior leaders in the past.

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Boko Haram extends its grip in northeastern Nigeria

September 2, 2014 6:35 PM
By Laura Grossman

After a two-day battle against Boko Haram in northeastern Borno state, Nigerian forces have lost more territory to the surging terrorist group. Boko Haram has stepped up its offensive over the past few months, grabbing land to build its desired Islamic state. Just two weeks ago, Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau released a video in which he celebrated the group's recent victories, railed against democracy, and threatened to continue attacks in Nigeria and neighboring countries.

Yesterday morning, Boko Haram fighters attacked the city of Bama in Nigeria's northeast Borno state. The insurgents arrived in armored tanks and trucks as they attempted to take over the city. Later in the day, Nigeria's Defense Headquarters tweeted "#Bama attack is being repelled. We cannot state casualty situation/figures now. Everything necessary will be done to contain the Terrorists."

To repel the terrorists, the Nigerian military relied upon its air force. Reports indicate, however, that the air force had difficulty distinguishing between its own forces and Boko Haram. Borno senator Ahmed Zanna told AFP: "The jet could not distinguish between soldiers and Boko Haram and bombarded the military barracks which was at the time under the control of soldiers .... The aerial bombing destroyed the military barracks and forced soldiers to flee towards Maiduguri along with thousands of civilians." It is possible that the Boko Haram fighters were wearing military uniforms, as they have frequently done in other attacks.

Reports emerged today that the Nigerian forces' hold on Bama crumbled as the insurgents returned in greater numbers overnight. Sources say casualties were high on both sides as Boko Haram overran Bama and as many as 5,000 people fled.

Soldiers reportedly also fled. One noted to the Nigerian press: "You kill and kill and kill but these people are coming like flies. We have to withdraw and allow the air force do their job. We do not know what is now on ground in Bama, but we have all withdrawn to Maiduguri."

If Boko Haram has taken over Bama, it would be the largest city under the group's control and a powerful demonstration of the terror group's efficiency and capabilities. Bama, which had a population of 270,000 in 2006, is located only about 45 miles away from Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state. In an effort to prevent Boko Haram "infiltration," Maiduguri city has been placed under curfew. The city has taken in some 20,000 refugees who arrived in the past 48 hours, mainly from Bama.

Over the summer, the group has raised its flags and taken at least marginal control of several villages and towns in the northeast. These towns include Damboa, Gwoza, Buni Yadi, Gamboru, and Madagali, among others. The Nigerian military has been struggling to regain control in the areas, reportedly recapturing Damboa and surrounding areas in early August. Shekau disputed the claim that the Damboa area was under government control, however, in his recent video.

On Aug. 27, Boko Haram fighters reportedly took over Bakin Dutse, a village in neighboring Adamawa state just to the southwest of Madagali. Setting up camp, the terrorists were only about five kilometers away from Gulak, which hosts a reinforced military base.

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Mission creep in Iraq continues as US launches airstrikes in Amerli

August 31, 2014 9:35 AM
By Bill Roggio

The US military and humanitarian mission in Iraq continues to suffer from what is known as "mission creep," which is defined as "a gradual shift in objectives during the course of a military campaign, often resulting in an unplanned long-term commitment."

When the Obama administration ordered limited military intervention against the Islamic State beginning on Aug. 7, the objectives were twofold: to halt the Islamic State's advance on Irbil to protect US personnel based there, and provide humanitarian relief to the Yazidi minority who fled Sinjar and other towns and were trapped on Mount Sinjar.

Within a week, the objectives were modified, and the US military was now tasked with serving as the air force to Kurdish and Iraqi forces "to protect critical infrastructure" and "support Iraqi security forces and Kurdish defense forces, who are working together to combat ISIL [the Islamic State]."

Yesterday, the US began launching airstrikes against Islamic State fighters who are besieging the ethnic Turkmen town of Amerli. Note that Amerli is in Salahaddin province and doesn't constitute a critical threat to US personnel in Irbil, nor does it host critical infrastructure. Below is the full press release that was issued yesterday by US Central Command:

At the request of the Government of Iraq, the U.S. military conducted airstrikes in support of an operation to deliver humanitarian assistance to address the humanitarian crisis and protect the civilians trapped in Amirli, Iraq at approximately 8:30 p.m. EDT today.

Two months ago, hundreds of ISIL terrorists advanced on Amirli cutting off food, water, and medical supplies to thousands of Shia Turkomen living there. ISIL has since blocked many attempts by Iraqi Security Forces and the United Nations from delivering critical supplies to Amirli, threatening the remaining population.

At the request of the Iraqi government, U.S. forces airdropped 109 bundles of much-needed humanitarian aid to the people of Amirli, including the Shia Turkomen minority ethnic group. Two U.S. C-17s and two U.S. C-130s airdropped supplies, delivering approximately 10,500 gallons of fresh drinking water and approximately 7,000 meals ready to eat. In addition, aircraft from Australia, France, and the United Kingdom also dropped humanitarian aid.

To support the delivery of this humanitarian assistance, the U.S. military also conducted three airstrikes in coordination with the isolated Iraqi security forces responsible for protecting Amirli.

Fighter aircraft struck and destroyed three ISIL Humvees, one ISIL armed vehicle, one ISIL checkpoint and one ISIL tank near Amirli. All aircraft safely exited the area.

The President authorized these airstrikes in support of an operation to deliver humanitarian assistance to civilians in the town of Amirli. These operations will be limited in their scope and duration as necessary to address this emerging humanitarian crisis and protect the civilians trapped in Amirli.

U.S Central Command has conducted a total of 118 airstrikes across Iraq.

It has been clear from the beginning that the Obama administration does not have a strategy to deal with the Islamic State. President Obama admitted as much in a press conference last week.

But what is clear is that the Obama administration is doing exactly what it said it wouldn't do: get sucked into Iraq's civil war and serve as Iraq's air force.

If President Obama wants to defeat the Islamic State, a group that he described as a "cancer," he needs to quickly develop a comprehensive strategy and articulate it to the American public. Otherwise, the administration is employing tactical solutions to the strategic problem that is the Islamic State, and adjusting these tactics on the fly.

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Shabaab suicide assault team hits Somali intelligence HQ in Mogadishu

August 31, 2014 8:30 AM
By Bill Roggio

Earlier today Shabaab, al Qaeda's official branch in Somalia, launched a coordinated suicide assault against the national intelligence headquarters in a highly secured area in the capital of Mogadishu.

Seven Shabaab fighters, three soldiers, and two civilians were killed in the assault, which began when a truck detonated at the main gate of the headquarters, Reuters reported. Six heavily armed Shabaab fighters then entered the breach and battled with security forces inside the compound for nearly an hour before being killed.

The suicide assault, or coordinated attack using one or more suicide bombers and an assault team, is a tactic frequently used by al Qaeda and its branches as well as allied groups such as the Afghan Taliban, the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and by the rival Islamic State. Suicide assaults are commonly executed by jihadist groups in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, and Nigeria.

The Shabaab fighters were attempting to free prisoners held at the headquarters. Sheikh Abdiasis Abu Musab, Shabaab's military spokesman, told Reuters that the attack was launched "in retaliation and as just punishment for the apostate criminals" who hold the group's fighters in prison. Abu Musab claimed that "innocent Muslims have suffered in the dungeons of that prison, subjected to torture and humiliation."

Shabaab is following in the footsteps of jihadist groups such as the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan and the Islamic State [in Iraq and Syria], two groups which have focused on military operations to free captive prisoners. Both groups have released thousands of prisoners during raids on jails. The resurgence of the Islamic State is partially due to the swelling of its ranks from prisoners freed in operations.

Shabaab's assault in Mogadishu serves as a reminder that the group is far from defeated, despite claims to the contrary by some in the Somali government. While the current media focus is on the Islamic State's spectacular gains in both Iraq and Syria, Shabaab and its predecessor, the Islamic Courts Union, have controlled extensive areas of Somalia, including major cities, several times since 2006. Even today, Shabaab controls large portions of the countryside in southern and central Somalia, and still runs some towns and cities. An African Union offensive by forces from Uganda, Burundi, Ethiopia, and Kenya has managed to drive Shabaab from the major cities of Mogadishu and Kismayo, but three years after the start of the offensive, Shabaab still controls vast areas of Somalia.

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Taliban launch suicide assault against Afghan intelligence

August 30, 2014 7:46 PM
By Bill Roggio

Earlier today, the Taliban killed four members of the National Directorate of Security, Afghanistan's intelligence service, and two civilians in a suicide assault that targeted the NDS headquarters in Jalalabad, the provincial capital of Nangarhar. From TOLONews:

The incident took place at about 5 a.m. local time in Jalalabad, the capital of the province, when a suicide car bomber detonated his explosives at the gate of the NDS office and five minutes later a second suicide car bomber exploded, Ahmad Zia Abdulzai, a spokesman for the Nangarhar governor, said.

"The two suicide car bombers detonated their explosives made way for five other insurgents to enter the compounds of the NDS," he said. "The five insurgents were gunned down by Afghan security forces after a five hour clash."

The Taliban claimed credit for the attack in a statement released on Voice of Jihad, their official propaganda website. The Taliban claimed that the attack was executed by only one suicide bomber and five "martyr Mujahideen equipped with rockets, PK heavy machine guns, Kalashnikovs, explosive-belts and hand grenades." The other explosion was the result of a remotely-detonated car bomb.

The suicide bomber was identified as "Abdullah Nangarhari," and the five fighters who penetrated the compound were identified as "Kalimullah, Akhtar Muhammad, Muhmamad Ismail and Fawad hailing from Nangarhar and Musa from Kunar provinces."

As usual, the Taliban exaggerated the effects of their attack, claiming that "as many as 71 agents of NDS and security forces, the ANA and ANP were killed and a further 83 got severely injured."

Afghan and Coalition forces in Nangarhar are often targeted by the Taliban. The Taliban have launched two other suicide assaults in the province so far this year. In January, a suicide assault team killed a US soldier at a base in Ghani Khel. In March, another Taliban team team attacked the police headquarters in Jalalabad, killing 18 people.

The Peshawar Regional Military Shura, one of the Afghan Taliban's four major commands, directs activities in eastern and northeastern Afghanistan, including in Nangarhar province. In 2011, the Taliban appointed Sheikh Mohammed Aminullah to lead its Peshawar Regional Military Shura; he was added to the United Nations Sanctions Committee's list of "individuals and entities associated with al Qaeda" in 2009.

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UN reticent about 'armed group' holding 43 Golan Heights peacekeepers

August 29, 2014 12:25 AM
By Lisa Lundquist

Yesterday the United Nations issued a statement deploring the fact that 43 of its Golan Heights peacekeepers have been captured in the southwestern Syrian province of Quneitra, and that the movements of 81 other peacekeepers nearby have been "restricted." The UN's press release alluded only generally to the group holding the 43 UN troops:

During a period of increased fighting beginning yesterday between armed elements and Syrian Arab Armed Forces within the area of separation in the Golan Heights, 43 peacekeepers from the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) were detained early this morning by an armed group in the vicinity of Al Qunaytirah. In addition, another 81 UNDOF peacekeepers are currently being restricted to their positions in the vicinity of Ar Ruwayhinah and Burayqah. The United Nations is making every effort to secure the release of the detained peacekeepers, and to restore the full freedom of movement of the Force throughout its area of operation.

The few further details supplied by the UN included the facts that the 43 captured soldiers were Fijian, and that the 81 others were from the Philippines.

A UN spokesperson refused to identify the kidnappers:

We are dealing with nonstate armed actors.... The command and control of these groups is unclear. We're not in a position to confirm who is holding whom. Some groups self-identified as being affiliated with Nusra, however, we are unable to confirm it.

A statement from Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said only that the kidnappers were "armed elements of the opposition," and called for the immediate release of the detained peacekeepers and the lifting of restrictions on the others.

It is highly likely that the peacekeepers have been seized by the al Qaeda's Syrian Branch, the Al Nusrah Front, which with the assistance of other Islamist groups, including the Islamic Front, this week wrested control of the Quneitra border crossing in the Israel-occupied Golan Heights.

The Wall Street Journal describes the UN presence in the area as follows:

The demilitarized zone in the Golan Heights was established in the months after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. The zone, as well as the crossing, is monitored by more than 1,200 U.N. peacekeepers from six countries. No other military forces are allowed in the area.

There was no evidence the Syrian rebels were attempting to infiltrate Israel. The Nusra Front and other Islamists already control swaths of territory along the cease-fire lines between Israel and Syria on the Golan Heights, an Israeli spokesman said on Wednesday.

The UN's reticence about the kidnappers' identity may reflect the desire for a non-terrorist negotiating partner, such as the Islamic Front (which, although it frequently fights alongside Al Nusrah and has senior leaders who are linked to al Qaeda, has avoided a terrorist designation so far).

Incidentally, while the Islamic State has been dominating the headlines with its onslaughts in Iraq and Syria illustrated by a steady flow of decapitation videos, Al Nusrah has been conducting negotiations with the Lebanese government over the fate of 28 kidnapped Lebanese security forces. The Islamic State, which also holds some Lebanese hostages, is also involved in the negotiations.

It is important to keep in mind that Al Nusrah, which seems to be positioning itself as a 'less violent' and 'more civilized' actor than the Islamic State, remains a mortal foe of democratic forces everywhere. The use of kidnapping victims as pawns has long figured in al Qaeda's playbook.

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Jaamat-ul-Ahrar is 'separate from the TTP leadership,' spokesman says

August 27, 2014 8:36 AM
By Bill Roggio

Ihsanullah Ihsan, the former spokesman of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP), confirmed in an email to The Long War Journal that the newly formed Jaamat-ul-Ahrar TTP is "separate from the TTP leadership."

"Jamaat-ul-Ahrar has become separate from the TTP leadership," Ihsan told LWJ. "TTP Jaamat-ul-Ahrar deals with itself and does not take orders from TTP leadership."

The formation of Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, followed by Ihsan's confirmation that the group is a separate entity from the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, is the final nail in the coffin for the latter.

The Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan will likely continue in some form; but without the Mohmand and Kurram factions, and the Mehsuds in North and South Waziristan, it is a rump organization. Jamaat-ul-Ahrar can serve as a nucleus for Taliban factions that wish to continue the fight against the Pakistani government.

The Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan made a major mistake by appointing Mullah Fazlullah as the group's emir after Hakeemullah Mehsud's death in a US drone strike last year. Fazlullah, despite having served as Hakeemullah's deputy, was disconnected from the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan's traditional power base and appears to have been widely disliked.

If Jamaat-ul-Ahrar does emerge as the successor to the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, the group will likely be just as dangerous if not moreso than its predecessor. With Omar Khalid al Khorasani in the top leadership cadre, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar is sure to continue a relentless campaign of attacks against the Pakistani state and will continue to ally with groups such as al Qaeda.

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Islamic State goes from 'junior varsity' to all pro in 8 months, Admiral Kirby says

August 25, 2014 8:51 AM
By Bill Roggio

In an Aug. 22 press briefing, Rear Admiral John Kirby, the Pentagon's Press Secretary, attempted to defend President Barack Obama's poorly timed statement in January where he referred to the Islamic State as a "jayvee team." This is what Obama had said in an interview with The New Yorker while answering a question on the resurgence of jihadist groups in Iraq:

The analogy we use around here sometimes, and I think is accurate, is if a jayvee team puts on Lakers uniforms that doesn't make them Kobe Bryant. I think there is a distinction between the capacity and reach of a bin Laden and a network that is actively planning major terrorist plots against the homeland versus jihadists who are engaged in various local power struggles and disputes, often sectarian.

Below is the reporter's question about equating the Islamic State to "a junior varsity team," and Kirby's answer:

Q: In January, the president equated ISIL's capabilities to that of a junior varsity team, so, which seems to be in direct contrast with what the secretary said yesterday. I was wondering if there had been new analysis or done to get to the secretary to that position?

And does that mean that ISIS is getting stronger?

REAR ADM. KIRBY: I would make a couple of points. One I would point you to what the president said yesterday or the day before about ISIL and the threat that they posed, as well as comments made by Secretary Kerry, and of course you've heard what Secretary Hagel said. I think everybody has the same view here about the threat posed by ISIL not just to Iraq, but to the region.

There's no divergence. This is August. You're talking about comments that were made in January. ISIL -- and we've been watching this for months. They have grown in capability. I've said it from the podium as have others. They have grown in capability with speed, helped along by resourcing from some of their own criminal activity, as well as donations and ransoms and helped along by a sanctuary that they have in Syria. So, we've all been watching this. They have advanced in capability. And we -- we saw the speed with which they gained ground and held ground in northern Iraq earlier this summer.

So, it's a -- the real answer to your question is, it's a constantly changing, fluid situation, and their threat continues to grow. And that's what led us to where we are today, which is that we believe it does pose an imminent threat, and it's a threat that we need to take seriously.

Kirby is defending the indefensible. The Obama administration and Kirby would be better served admitting that it was a mistake to underestimate the Islamic State. As a senior military officer, he knows that it is impossible for the Islamic State to have gained the capacity to take on two states (Iraq and Syria) and control large regions in both countries in the span of just eight months.

Those of us who have been watching the Islamic State (previously known as al Qaeda in Iraq, Islamic State of Iraq, and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham) have warned that the group has been gaining in strength since 2012. For example, this deadly raid on Haditha in March 2012 shows that the group had regrouped and developed the capacity train, plan for, and execute sophisticated operations against Iraqi security forces.

Watch the video linked above that shows the Islamic State's assault on Haditha in 2012. The tactics used in that attack weren't developed over the past eight months. These tactics have been on display in both Iraq and Syria over the past three years. The alarm bells should have been ringing in the Obama administration once the Islamic State seized Fallujah and several areas in Anbar province in January. Instead, the president grossly understated the Islamic State's abilities. And today, administration officials are referring to the group as a dangerous global threat while the military is launching airstrikes against the group daily and is planning to expand its operations, possibly into Syria.

Administration and military officials shouldn't bristle when asked why they failed to properly assess that danger of the Islamic State. They should admit their mistake and articulate a strategy to defeat the group. Even if a new strategy contradicts previous campaign promises to end the war in Iraq.

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Prospect of sectarian slaughter challenges new Iraqi government

August 24, 2014 11:28 AM
By Bill Ardolino

Two days ago, more than 70 Sunnis were slaughtered at a mosque north of Baghdad. The attack at the Musab bin Omair Mosque in the village of Imam Wais in Diyala province has been blamed by some on Shia militiamen exacting revenge for a roadside bombing and combat losses, while other sources attribute the massacre to the Sunni Islamic State, noting that the attack began with a suicide bombing, a tactic typically employed by Sunni extremists in Iraq:

It was not immediately clear if the attack was carried out by Shiite militiamen or the Islamic State extremist group -- also known as ISIS -- which has been advancing into the ethnically and communally mixed Diyala province and has been known to kill fellow Sunni Muslims who refuse to submit to its leadership.

An army officer and a police officer said the attack on the Musab bin Omair Mosque in Imam Wais village, some 120 kilometres northeast of Baghdad, began with a suicide bombing near the entrance, after which gunmen poured in and opened fire on the worshippers.

The Islamic State is also known to massacre Sunnis who defy it, and the group is currently in conflict with two local tribes.

In protest against the attack, two major Sunni legislative blocs have halted talks on forming a new inclusive national government:

Sunni lawmakers quickly blamed the carnage on powerful Shiite militias out to avenge an earlier bombing, and two major Sunni parliamentary blocs pulled out of talks on forming a new Cabinet. The move creates a major hurdle for prime minister-designate Haider al-Abadi as he struggles to reach out to disaffected Sunnis to form a government that can confront the Islamic State extremists.

It remains to be seen how the impasse will be resolved, but the Islamic State's strategy of fomenting sectarian war, first articulated and executed by Abu Musab al Zarqawi at the head of al Qaeda in Iraq in September 2005, remains in effect amid the high-profile clashes at Sinjar, Tikrit, and Mosul Dam. Bombings in Baghdad and Kirkuk killed 42 people yesterday. And Shia militias have reestablished their prominence in Baghdad and southern Iraq:

Since the initial collapse of the Iraqi military in the north, the government has relied on Shia militias in its war effort. Empowering these groups may have been the only way to hold back the ISIS advance but it has blurred the lines between state and sectarian power, defense and revenge.

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Taliban 'condemns' US rewards for Haqqani Network leaders

August 23, 2014 6:09 PM
By Bill Roggio

The Taliban issued a statement that denounced the recent posting of new rewards by the US State Department for five Haqqani Network leaders, including Sirajuddin Haqqani, the group's operational commander.

On Aug. 20, the existing reward for operational leader Sirajuddin Haqqani was raised from $5 million to $10 million, putting him in the top tier of wanted global jihadists. The State Department's Rewards for Justice program also posted new rewards of up to $5 million each for Khalil al Rahman Haqqani, Yahya Haqqani, Abdul Rauf Zakir, and Aziz Haqqani.

The next day, a statement from the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan," the official name of the Taliban, was issued in English on Voice of Jihad saying that the group "strongly condemns" the bounties:

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan strongly condemns this act and considers it an act of shame and taunt for America. We believe that this announcement has clearly demonstrated the weakness and defeat of the defeated American authorities as they are facing it in the field of battles, politics and in sustaining the moribund regime. This act has proved that the Americans are now trying to hide their defeat through such propaganda wiles.

The Taliban concluded that the rewards "will strengthen the determination of jihadic spirit and hatred in Mujahideen against invading Americans and will pave the way for further bloodiest attacks against Americans. God willing."

In the past, the Taliban have defended Haqqani Network leaders who are targeted by US designations. In February, the group released a statement defending three Haqqani Network leaders -- Yahya Haqqani, Saidullah Jan, and Muhammad Omar Zadran -- after they were added to the list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists. In that statement, the Taliban said the designations are "ineffective and theatrical."

As noted here in February, the designations provide valuable information on terrorist networks. And the Taliban's reactions to the designations also provide useful insight on the group:

One of [Taliban spokesman] Mujahid's main arguments, that the sanctions are ineffective as the Haqqani leaders do not "have trade relationships with America nor any accounts in their interest plagued banks which could be effected by these superficial seizures," may be technically true. And keep in mind that the designations didn't prevent other Haqqani Network leaders (Khalil Haqqani and Fazl Rabi), who are also listed, from traveling to Saudi Arabia to fundraise.

But from the standpoint of The Long War Journal, the designations are at the very least a useful tool in helping the public to understand the nature of the networks. Additionally, the Taliban's response is interesting. Note that there is no denial that Saidullah and Yahya collude with al Qaeda.

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General Dempsey: 'It is possible to contain' the Islamic State

August 22, 2014 9:53 AM
By Bill Roggio

Is the Obama administration considering a policy of containment with respect to the Islamic State? Yesterday, in a press conference at the Pentagon, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey said that it is "possible ... to contain them." The question and Dempsey's full answer is below:

Q: General, do you believe that ISIS can be defeated or destroyed without addressing the cross-border threat from Syria? And is it possible to contain them?

GEN. DEMPSEY: Let me start from where you ended and end up where you started. It is possible contain -- to contain them. And I think we've seen that their momentum was disrupted. And that's not to be discounted, by the way, because the -- it was the momentum itself that had allowed them to be -- to find a way to encourage the Sunni population of western Iraq and Nineveh province to accept their brutal tactics and -- and their presence among them.

So you ask -- yes, the answer is they can be contained, not in perpetuity. This is an organization that has an apocalyptic, end-of-days strategic vision and which will eventually have to be defeated. To your question, can they be defeated without addressing that part of their organization which resides in Syria? The answer is no. That will have to be addressed on both sides of what is essentially at this point a nonexistent border.

And that will come when we have a coalition in the region that takes on the task of defeating ISIS over time. ISIS will only truly be defeated when it's rejected by the 20 million disenfranchised Sunni that happen to reside between Damascus and Baghdad.

Q: And that requires airstrikes (OFF-MIKE)

GEN. DEMPSEY: It requires a variety of instruments, only one small part of which is airstrikes. I'm not predicting those will occur in Syria, at least not by the United States of America. But it requires the application of all of the tools of national power -- diplomatic, economic, information, military.

Keep in mind that top Obama administration officials have described the Islamic State as "a cancer" (President Barack Obama), "evil" (Secretary of State John Kerry), "an imminent threat to every interest we have, whether it's in Iraq or anywhere else" (Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel), and "as sophisticated and well-funded as any group that we have seen... They're beyond just a terrorist group .... They marry ideology, a sophistication of strategic and tactical military prowess .... They are tremendously well-funded" (Hagel).

Even Dempsey weighed in on the threat posed by the Islamic State. He described it as "an organization that has an apocalyptic, end-of-days strategic vision and which will eventually have to be defeated."

If the Islamic State poses such a dire, "imminent threat" to the United States, then the nation's top military official shouldn't be floating a policy of containment.

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US launches 6 more airstrikes against Islamic State

August 21, 2014 4:54 PM
By Bill Roggio

Despite the execution of American reporter James Foley and the Islamic State's threat to kill more captive Americans, the US is continuing to target the jihadist group that controls large areas of Iraq and Syria. Today the US launched airstrikes "in support of Iraqi Security Force operations, using fighter and attack aircraft to conduct six airstrikes in the vicinity of the Mosul Dam," US Central Command, or CENTCOM, said in a press release.

"The strikes destroyed or damaged three ISIL Humvees, one ISIL vehicle, and multiple IED emplacements. All aircraft exited the strike area safely," CENTCOM continued.

The US has now "conducted a total of 90 airstrikes across Iraq. Of those 90 strikes, 57 have been in support of Iraqi forces near the Mosul Dam."

Iraq has now become one of the hottest active theaters for US forces. The US has conducted more airstrikes in Iraq since Aug. 7, when Obama authorized the military to attack the Islamic State, than all airstrikes this year in Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia combined.

President Obama has said that he "will not allow the United States to be dragged into fighting another war in Iraq," and "I ran for this office in part to end our war in Iraq and welcome our troops home."

Senator Ben Cardin said that the United States will not serve as Iraq's air force:

"What we will not do is become the Iraqi Air Force," Cardin said during an appearance on "Fox News Sunday." "Obviously we got to be extremely concerned that we're not drawn into that type of military action."

Yet that is exactly what is happening. When President Obama "authorized the U.S. Armed Forces to conduct targeted air strikes to support operations by Iraqi forces to recapture the Mosul Dam" on Aug. 14, he permitted the United State military to serve as Iraq's air arm as Iraqi and Kurdish forces went on the offensive in northern Iraq.

The Obama administration should be very explicit about its goals and objectives in Iraq if it wants to retain the support of the American public for an extended period of time. If the goal is to conduct limited airstrikes in the north to help the Iraqi government and the Kurds regain some lost ground with the hopes of containing the Islamic State, then it should say so. If the goal is to further the defeat of the Islamic State by striking in other theaters and possibly putting advisers, forward air controllers, and special operations forces on the ground, then the administration should communicate that as well.

Mission creep, which is exactly what we are witnessing in Iraq today, has a nasty way of making both supporters and detractors wary of the mission. The initial mission was to protect Irbil, US personnel, and support humanitarian operations on Mount Sinjar; it has now expanded to "support Iraqi security forces and Kurdish defense force operations, as well as to protect critical infrastructure," as CENTCOM notes in its press releases.

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Al Nusrah Front-linked Kuwaiti terrorists resurface and retweet

August 20, 2014 9:26 PM
By Lisa Lundquist

Two Kuwait-based Al Nusrah Front financiers recently designated by the US as global terrorists, Shafi Sultan Mohammed al-Ajmi and Hajjaj Fahd Hajjaj Muhammad Sahib al-'Ajmi, have surfaced over the past few days.

Hajjaj Al-'Ajmi was arrested by Kuwaiti authorities at Kuwait's international airport today as he returned from Qatar. According to Reuters, authorities would not comment on his detention.

On Aug. 17, Shafi al Ajmi was detained by Kuwaiti authorities at the border with Saudi Arabia as he reportedly returned from a pilgrimage. He was released after questioning by Kuwaiti officials.

The two Kuwaitis were added to the US' list of global terrorists by the Treasury Department less than two weeks ago, on Aug. 6, along with another Kuwaiti, 'Abd al-Rahman Khalaf 'Ubayd Juday' al-'Anizi. According to the designation:

Hajjaj Al-'Ajmi serves as a funnel for financial donations to ANF [Al Nusrah Front] facilitators in Syria, traveling regularly from Kuwait to Syria to engage in financial activity on behalf of ANF and deliver money to the group. He agreed to provide financial support to ANF in exchange for installing Kuwaitis in ANF leadership positions. In early January 2014, he offered ANF money to lead a battlefield campaign in Homs, Syria.

[and Shafi] Al-Ajmi operates regular social media campaigns seeking donations for Syrian fighters and is one of the most active Kuwaiti fundraisers for ANF. In July 2014, he publicly admitted that he collected money under the auspices of charity and delivered the funds in person to ANF. Al-Ajmi also acknowledged purchasing and smuggling arms on behalf of ANF.

Hajjaj was also added to the United Nations' list of global terrorists, in a set of designations published on Aug. 15, which stated that he is an Al Nusrah Front financier based in Kuwait. In addition, the UN designated another Kuwaiti financier for Al Nusrah, Hamid Hamad Hamid al Ali.

At the time the UN designations were announced, Kuwait's UN envoy, Mansour Ayyad Al Otaibi, expressed regret at the designation of the two Kuwaitis and assured that the blacklisting could be removed and would not be permanent.

Hajjaj has vowed to take legal action to clear his name, and claimed he is not a terrorist, has no affiliation with any terrorist groups, and had simply sent aid to oppressed Syrians.

Shafi has similarly threatened legal action following his brief detention by Kuwaiti authorities. According to the Kuwait Times, the Kuwaiti government last year banned a TV show on which he appeared, because it incited hatred. On the show, Shafi called for armed opposition to the Assad regime, and urged his supporters to torture and kill Hezbollah fighters in Syria.

The Kuwait Times also reported that both Shafi and Hajjaj were back on Twitter with new accounts two days after their original accounts were deleted following the terrorism designations. In one of the new tweets, Hajjaj Al-Ajmi said: "Will continue supporting Islam and its people, and praise will be to Allah always. And only believers believe all what happens to them is for their own good."

Shafi Al-Ajmi has tweeted: "We convey the good news to our brothers in Sham (Syria) that we will always be at their rescue, even if the infidels hate this. I tell American David Cohen (Deputy Treasury Secretary) that if Jesus (PBUH) the son of Mary was amongst you, you would label him a terrorist."

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US confirms Islamic State executed American journalist

August 20, 2014 3:38 PM
By Bill Roggio

The US government has confirmed what we all know: the Islamic State did indeed execute James Wright Foley, an American journalist who was captured by the group in Binesh, Syria on Nov. 22, 2012. The Islamic State issued the gruesome video yesterday, and it was clear that the person who spoke and was then beheaded was Foley. In a statement on Foley's death, US Secretary of State John Kerry described the Islamic State as "evil":

There is evil in this world, and we all have come face to face with it once again. Ugly, savage, inexplicable, nihilistic, and valueless evil. ISIL [Islamic State] is the face of that evil, a threat to people who want to live in peace, and an ugly insult to the peaceful religion they violate every day with their barbarity.

The question that remains is how the US will respond to the very public and extremely brutal execution of an American citizen. Will President Obama order an end to the US airstrikes? Will he continue to strike at limited targets? Or will he expand the effort to confront the Islamic State head on, work with partners in Iraq, and open a front in Syria to defeat the jihadist group? If the Islamic State is indeed "the face of that evil" that threatens our very way of life, then the obvious answer is the latter.

As of now, US officials are saying the airstrikes will continue. But President Obama has recently made clear that US military operations are limited in scope (even if he has moved the goalposts already) and that the US will not send in ground forces or serve as the Iraqi military's air force.

If the US maintains the course, then expect the Islamic State to issue another beheading video, this time of Steven Joel Sotloff, who was shown at the end of the Foley execution video. Additionally, there are three other Americans who are reported to be missing in Syria: Austin Tice, and two others who have not been named. If the Islamic State has them, it may continue to roll out execution videos in an effort to break the Obama administration's will to continue the strikes.

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Taliban launch offensive in province outside of Kabul

August 19, 2014 9:54 PM
By Bill Roggio

More than 700 Taliban fighters are reported to have launched a major assault on Afghan government and security forces' positions in the province of Logar, which is just south of Kabul. From Reuters:

"There are some 700 of them and they are fighting Afghan forces for territorial control and they have also brought with them makeshift mobile (health) clinics," Niaz Mohammad Amiri, the provincial governor of Logar province, told Reuters by telephone.

The Taliban have dug-in in Logar, which lies about an hour's drive south of Kabul, and nearby Wardak province to the west, in recent years. They have used the provinces - gateways to the capital - as launchpads for hit-and-run attacks and suicide bombings on Kabul.

The main roads into the capital are all tightly controlled, but the militants have still been able to breach the checkpoints and staged dozens of attacks, killing scores of civilians and soldiers in the city of about five million this year.

Abdul Hakim Esaaqzai, the police chief of Logar province, said the insurgents, armed with heavy machine guns, were fighting Afghan forces from residential areas in Charkh district.

The Taliban are clearly preparing to battle the Afghan military in the open after the US and NATO forces draw down to levels at which they cannot provide meaningful support. The Taliban have launched similar massed attacks in the provinces of Helmand, Nangarhar, and Ghor over the past several months. Coalition forces have done little to turn the tide in those engagements.

The Taliban are said to control Sangin district in Helmand months after launching their attack in mid-June. The Afghan military and government have been unable to dislodge the Taliban from Sangin, and are now conducting peace talks with the group.

The Taliban have remained in Logar despite US and Afghan military operations in the province during the surge. In 2010, a US military official told The Long War Journal that the Taliban in Logar were "decimated" after raids over a short period of time killed or captured the three successive military leaders of the group in the province.

Logar province is a known haven for al Qaeda and allied terror groups, including the Haqqani Network. The presence of al Qaeda cells has been detected in the district of Pul-e 'Alam; or one of Logar's five districts, according to an investigation by The Long War Journal.

Over the past several years, the Taliban and the Haqqani Network have taken control of areas in Logar and neighboring Wardak province, and have used these safe havens to launch attacks into Kabul.

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US airstrikes at Mosul Dam likely offensive in nature

August 17, 2014 12:37 AM
By Bill Roggio

US Central Command issued a press release on US airstrikes against the Islamic State in northern Mosul on Saturday; the full press release is below:

US military forces continued to attack ISIL [Islamic State] terrorists in Iraq Saturday (Iraq time), with a mix of fighter and remotely piloted aircraft successfully conducting airstrikes near Irbil and the Mosul Dam.

US Central Command conducted these strikes under authority to support humanitarian efforts in Iraq, as well as to protect US. personnel and facilities.

The nine airstrikes conducted thus far destroyed or damaged four armored personnel carriers, seven armed vehicles, two Humvees and an armored vehicle.

All aircraft exited the strike areas safely.

The US airstrikes near the Mosul Dam on Saturday were likely offensive in nature, in support of the Kurdish Peshmerga attempting to retake the strategic dam. A senior Kurdish commander has said as much.

Islamic State fighters at the Mosul Dam are neither directly threatening US personnel in Irbil, nor are they impeding the humanitarian mission on Mount Sinjar.

If the US military is going on the offensive against the Islamic State in northern Iraq to support the Peshmerga retaking areas lost in early August, then the US government should say as much. President Obama has stated that the US would not reengage in Iraq except to protect US personnel and support relief operations on Mount Sinjar. If the mission has changed, the American public should be given an explanation as to why.

Updated Aug. 18

President Obama issued a War Powers Resolution Authorization letter to Congress yesterday, the full text is below. The administration claims that possible destruction of the dam could threaten US personnel in Baghdad. Keep in mind that the Islamic State controls several dams in Iraq and Syria, and has yet to destroy one, likely because it views the infrastructure as critical to running its state. However the Mosul Dam is in disrepair.

On August 14, 2014, I authorized the U.S. Armed Forces to conduct targeted air strikes to support operations by Iraqi forces to recapture the Mosul Dam. These military operations will be limited in their scope and duration as necessary to support the Iraqi forces in their efforts to retake and establish control of this critical infrastructure site, as part of their ongoing campaign against the terrorist group the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The failure of the Mosul Dam could threaten the lives of large numbers of civilians, endanger U.S. personnel and facilities, including the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, and prevent the Iraqi government from providing critical services to the Iraqi populace. Pursuant to this authorization, on the evening of August 15, 2014, U.S. military forces commenced targeted airstrike operations in Iraq.

I have directed these actions, which are in the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States, pursuant to my constitutional authority to conduct U.S. foreign relations and as Commander in Chief and Chief Executive. These actions are being undertaken in coordination with the Iraqi government.

I am providing this report as part of my efforts to keep the Congress fully informed, consistent with the War Powers Resolution (Public Law 93-148). I appreciate the support of the Congress in this action.

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Afghan government negotiating with the Taliban in Sangin

August 15, 2014 11:24 AM
By Bill Roggio

According to this report in Khaama Press, the Afghan government is openly negotiating a "peace deal" with the Taliban in Sangin, which was overrun by the jihadist group in June:

Negotiations between Taliban militants and Afghan officials continue in southern Helmand province of Afghanistan in a bid to end the violence which sparked over a month ago.

Gen. Asadullah Sherzad, commander of the special police forces, said the negotiations continue between the local tribal elders and Taliban militants.

Dozens of people including Afghan security forces members and civilians have killed following heavy clashes between the Taliban militants and Afghan forces which sparked late in June.

Local residents in Sangin, Kajaki, Mosa Qala and Nawzad districts are saying that sporadic clashes still take place between Afghan forces and Taliban militants, despite the officials claimed that Taliban suffered heavy casualties and were forced to retreat.

In the meantime, Gen. Sherzad said peace negotiations are currently focused on Sangin district
and talks on other districts will be held later.

He said their peace talks with tribal elders & the militants had a positive impact on the security situation and security incidents in Sangin & other districts had declined but further improvement required some more time.

According to Gen. Sherzad, the Taliban commanders have said they are willing to join peace process and have admitted that they are tired of the war and violence.

The Taliban militants group has not commented regarding the report so far.

Three quick points:

1) The Afghan government and military are, to put it mildly, insane if they believe that the Taliban will abide by a peace agreement. History in both Afghanistan and Pakistan shows that the Taliban have used peace agreements to either regroup from losses or move on to their next conquest. The Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan and other Taliban groups took control of much of northwestern Pakistan between 2004 to 2009 as the Pakistani military signed peace agreement after peace agreement. In Afghanistan, look no further than the futile "peace deal" in Musa Qala in Helmand that began in October 2006 to see how the Taliban used it to their advantage.

2) We are constantly hearing about how the Taliban are exhausted from fighting and want peace. (See here for reports of exhausted Taliban seeking peace, from 2013 [and another], 2012, 2011, 2010 [and another], and 2009; there are many more, this is but a sampling.) Yet the Taliban keep fighting. It is about time to retire this canard.

3) The Taliban's high command has repeatedly said it has no interest in a peaceful resolution to the war. It has consistently said it will not participate in a coalition government, and that only the return of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is an acceptable outcome.

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Iraqi military claims to retake control of 4 cities north of Baghdad

August 14, 2014 8:55 PM
By Bill Roggio

Iraqi and Syrian towns and cities seized by the Islamic State and its allies. Map created by Patrick Megahan and Bill Roggio for The Long War Journal. Click to view larger map.

The Iraqi Ministry of Defense today claimed it retook four cities between Baghdad and Samarra from the Islamic State during operations over the past week. From Al Shorfa:

Over the past two weeks, "the army managed to clear four new cities in Salahaddin province -- al-Dhuluiyah, al-Ishaqi, al-Mutassim and Balad -- and is now in full control of them", said army commander in Salahaddin Lt. Gen. Sabah al-Fatlawi.

The army killed and arrested dozens of ISIL fighters in the process, and destroyed large quantities of their weapons and explosives, he said.

There is one problem with this story: no one seems to have been aware that these four cities were under Islamic State or allied forces control. Dhuluiyah has been considered contested, while at times heavy fighting has been reported at Balad and Ishaqi. Islamic State fighters have been launching attacks along the road north of Baghdad in an effort to cut off supplies to Samarra. But none of these cities were considered to be under enemy control.

Either the Iraqi Ministry of Defense is attempting to take credit for gaining ground it never lost, in an effort to bolster its image; or the situation on the road from Baghdad to Samarra has been far worse than reported. Neither scenario is a good sign.

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AQAP ideologue praises jihadi victories in Iraq, comments on Berghdal release

August 13, 2014 12:57 PM
By Oren Adaki

New AQAP video titled "A Talk About the Events." Source: YouTube.

A new video released on Aug. 12 by the al-Malahim Media Foundation, the media wing of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), features the terrorist organization's chief ideologue and theologian, Ibrahim al Rubaish, commenting on a variety of current events. In the video, entitled "A Talk About the Events," Rubaish discusses recent mujahideen victories in Iraq, the prisoner swap in which the Afghan Taliban released American soldier Bowe Bergdahl, and the latest round of fighting between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Reminding viewers of the need to stay stay abreast of current events in the Muslim world, Rubaish prefaces his discussion by emphasizing that "the brotherhood among the believers is stronger than the ties of kinship." He explains that the Muslim nation is "as one house: its success and failure affects the entire family."

After that introduction, Rubaish then turns to recent developments in Iraq. He congratulates the mujahideen as well as the entire Muslim community "for the victories achieved by our brothers in Iraq," without explicitly mentioning the Islamic State by name. Rubaish notes that these military victories are a "grace from Allah" and stresses the importance of giving thanks for such blessings.

Rubaish shows a keen awareness of the fact that the dust has not yet settled on the Iraqi battlefields, however. He calls on all Muslims to pray to Allah "to make the victory completed" and to rid their community of those who wish to "turn our victory into defeat." He beseeches the Sunni mujahideen to stop all infighting and to battle for the implementation of Islamic law as a united front.

Wrapping up his analysis of Iraqi developments, Rubaish suggests that if the Sunnis of Yemen follow the lead of their coreligionists in Iraq and act as "one hand," they could recreate the victories of Iraq and repel the Houthi advance on Sana'a.

Rubaish's comments on Iraq are in line with his previous pronouncements on the subject, which appear to be equivocal by design. In a video released last month called "Responsibility of the Word," Rubaish and Harith bin Ghazi al Nadhari, another AQAP ideologue, condemned the vicious infighting between the Islamic State and its rivals in Syria without mentioning specific events or parties. Nevertheless, their messages were quickly trumpeted on Twitter at that time by rivals of the Islamic State in the al Nusrah Front while they were condemned by another AQAP ideologue supportive of the Islamic State.

Turning to the release of US soldier Bowe Bergdahl, Rubaish congratulates the Muslim community for the success of the deal which released five Taliban commanders. In his exaltation, Rubaish exclaims, "Who would have ever though that the American pride would break in front of the demands of the mujahideen!"

Rubaish next addresses the recent fighting between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, explaining that the Saudis hired Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al Sisi to tighten the siege on Gaza and close the border crossings during the Israeli operation. Rubaish continues with a long rant excoriating Muslim "traitors" who aid or facilitate Israeli operations against Hamas. At one point, he likens Israel to a chair held up by legs representing Arab traitors. "If the legs break," he says, "or one of them, the chair would fall, Allah permitting."

At the conclusion of his 11-minute video, Rubaish comments on the July 4 AQAP attack on the Wadia border crossing between Saudi Arabia and Yemen that spilled into the Saudi town of Sharurah. He notes that Saudi authorities did not negotiate at all for the soldiers kidnapped by AQAP during the attack who were subsequently killed. He accuses the Saudi Ministry of Interior of exploiting its soldiers to do its bidding and then deluding their families after their deaths by calling them "martyrs."

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AQAP bomb kills 13 in Lahj

August 13, 2014 11:13 AM
By Oren Adaki

An improvised explosive device (IED) planted by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) detonated today in Yemen's southern Lahj province as experts were attempting to defuse it. Three Yemeni explosives experts and 10 civilians were reportedly killed by the blast.

A Yemeni security official told the Arabic media that the IED was brought to the authorities' attention by local residents, who reported its presence in the vicinity of Lahj province's central prison. A team of explosives experts rushed to the scene to defuse the bomb, but were not successful. The same official also said that a police commander from the nearby city of Tabin was among the casualties of the explosion.

An anonymous local official claimed that the IED was planted close to the residence of the governor, Ahmad al Majidi, in the city of Sabr in Lahj province. He noted that the explosion also lightly wounded a number of Yemeni soldiers and pedestrians.

Later in the day, a Twitter account affiliated with AQAP released a short report claiming credit for the explosion in Lahj. The report stated that the IED was intended to target members of the Yemeni Popular Committees in Sabr City in the Tabin area "in response to their crimes against the Muslims." The AQAP report noted that the IED's location was discovered and that it exploded before it could be defused. Although Arabic media reports claimed that 13 people had been killed by the explosion, AQAP said that eight individuals were killed - three explosive experts working to defuse the bomb along with a number of police officers and members of the Popular Committees. However, the AQAP report added that about 20 people were injured by the explosion, including Colonel Mohammad Fareed, the local police chief.

The AQAP report concluded with the following statement from a fighter acting as a spokesman for the group: "We strongly apologize for injures that occurred among some Muslims during the explosion, and we thank Allah that none of them were killed. On this occasion, I repeat what we have already mentioned many times via a number of our publications that we disseminated in Wilayat Lahj which is a warning to our Muslim people to distance themselves from the IEDs and not attempt to dismantle them or tamper with them."

Long an al Qaeda battleground, Lahj province is particularly important to the terrorist organization given its close proximity to the port of Aden. Al Qaeda has carried out a string of terrorist operations in the province, including a suicide attack in March targeting the military intelligence headquarters in Lahj.

Update: Since this report was posted, AQAP claimed responsibility for the IED explosion in Lahj. The report has been edited to reflect this development.

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