November 20, 2009 12:13 PM ET
By Bill Roggio

According to The Washington Times, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency has helped Mullah Mohammed Omar, the Amir al Mumineen ("the commander of the faithful") for both the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, relocate to the southern port city of Karachi:

Two senior U.S. intelligence officials and one former senior CIA officer told The Washington Times that Mullah Omar traveled to Karachi last month after the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. He inaugurated a new senior leadership council in Karachi, a city that so far has escaped U.S. and Pakistani counterterrorism campaigns, the officials said.

The officials, two of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the topic, said Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency, the ISI, helped the Taliban leaders move from Quetta, where they were exposed to attacks by unmanned U.S. drones.

The development reinforces suspicions that the ISI, which helped create the Taliban in the 1990s to expand Pakistani influence in Afghanistan, is working against U.S. interests in Afghanistan as the Obama administration prepares to send more U.S. troops to fight there.

Bruce Riedel, a CIA veteran and analyst on al Qaeda and the Taliban, confirmed that Mullah Omar had been spotted in Karachi recently.

"Some sources claim the ISI decided to move him further from the battlefield to keep him safe" from U.S. drone attacks, said Mr. Riedel, who headed the Obama administration's review of policy for Afghanistan and Pakistan last spring. "There are huge madrassas in Karachi where Mullah Omar could easily be kept."

For those paying attention, this should come as little surprise. In late September, The Sunday Times reported that the ISI had begun moving Omar's Quetta Shura to Karachi. It was only a matter of time before Omar followed. And given what we know about the ISI's complicity with the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Hizb-i-Islami Gulbuddin, and a host of terror groups, your shock meter should be pegged to zero.

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November 19, 2009 3:25 PM ET
By Bill Roggio

I accidentally ran across this video during a search this morning. The video is of a meeting between Mustafa Abu Yazid, al Qaeda's leader in Afghanistan, and Mullah Dadullah Akhund, the former military commander of the Afghan Taliban (he was killed by British special forces in May 2007).

The short clip, from As Sahab, al Qaeda's media outlet, perfectly drives home the point Tom Joscelyn and I made in "Al Qaeda is the tip of the jihadist spear", that the Taliban and al Qaeda are closely linked and efforts to bribe the Taliban out of the relationship will fail.

Below I have provided the text of Dadullah and Yazid's statements in the video, which is subtitled in English. Emphasis is mine.

Dadullah: The raids on New York and Washington had a major effect in cementing the ties of the Iman-based brotherhood between al Qaeda and their brothers the Taliban, both commanders and soldiers.

Yazid: By the grace of Allah, the strong ties between the brothers who have emigrated from all over the world have become stronger. The ties between the brothers in al Qaeda and brothers in the Taliban have increased. The affection between them has increased. The Iman-based brotherhood has increased by the grace of Allah, the Most High. And these are some of the effects of this brotherhood.

Mullah Baradar, the deputy of Amir al Mumineen [the commander of the faithful, Mullah Mohammed Omar], has said, "The jihad in Afghanistan is the duty of every Muslim, because the Crusaders didn't gang up against the Taliban merely because they're Afghans: no, they ganged up against them because of their Islam and their faith."

He also said, "The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan will continue to be a trench for every Mujahid, and a refuge for the world's Muslims." May Allah reward him and help him and give victory to him.

We mention here the stance taken by Amir al Mumineen, Mullah Mohammed Omar, the stance of men, the stance of champions, and the stance of lions.

He stood like a towering mountain in the face of the enemies, in the face of all challenges.

He refuse to back down, and refused to bargain over the believers [al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and the rest of the group]. He took the stance of heroism, courage, dignity and defiance. He stood against the whole world, which was telling him: "either you hand over Osama and those with him, or all of your power and authority will disappear."

Yet he [Omar] insisted on making supreme the meaning of Iman, the loyalty to the believers and strength against the unbelievers. So may Allah reward him in the best way.

And here, we emphasize our Bayah [oath of allegiance] and obedience to Amir al Mumineen, Mullah Mohammed Omar, and we affirm that Qaeda al Jihad Afghanistan is no more than one of the brigades of Amir al Mumineen and the Islamic Emirate and the soldiers of al Qaeda are no more than loyal soldiers of Amir al Mumineen and the Islamic Emirate.

As an aside, in the video you can clearly see Yazid's Shadow Army bodyguard, in uniform.

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November 19, 2009 1:01 PM ET
By Bill Roggio

We've noted several times at The Long War Journal that al Qaeda embeds trainers from the Shadow Army (or Lashkar al Zil) into Taliban units to increase their effectiveness. An International Security Assistance Force press release provides another example of an al Qaeda trainer embedded with the Taliban in Ghazni province:

In another operation, an Afghan-international security force killed several enemy militants and detained a sought after al-Qaida IED facilitator and another militant in Ghazni province while searching a compound suspected of militant activity. This facilitator is reported to have supplied IEDs to other militant elements operating in the area and kept direct contact with local al-Qaida and Taliban leaders.

The joint force targeted the compound on the southern side of Ghazni City where intelligence sources reported the al-Qaida facilitator to be located. The joint force shot and killed the enemy militants after they demonstrated hostile intent. The compound was searched without further incident. One of the detainees was identified as the al-Qaida IED facilitator.

No civilians were harmed in any of these operations.

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November 19, 2009 11:40 AM ET
By Austin Knuppe

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, right, listens to Omani Foreign Minister Yousuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah, left, during their meeting in Tehran, Iran, on July 11, 2009. An unidentified interpreter sits at center. AP Photo by Vahid Salemi.

In geopolitics, as in astronomy, world powers have a certain gravitational pull. Some nations have less force, choosing to orbit in the atmosphere of larger, more powerful states. Other countries, like China, have several satellite nations in their immediate orbit.

Distracted by Iran’s attempts at nuclear proliferation, the West has not paid much attention to Tehran’s increasing sphere of influence in the Persian Gulf. For many years, the emirate nations of the Gulf have had a strong connection to Saudi Arabia and the United States, providing a natural boundary between the Saudis, Iraqis, and Iranians. In recent months, however, the Gulf countries have begun to reevaluate their relationships with the Islamic Republic.

Today’s post will focus on the nations of Oman and Yemen, two countries that have typically distanced themselves from Iran.

A few days ago in Oman—a historically strong US ally—Omani foreign minister Youssef bin Alawi Abdullah announced closer cooperation with Iran that will remain unfettered by foreign influence. Last August both nations signed seven Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) covering issues from smuggling and illicit trade to closer economic ties. One agreement of note was an accord on oil cooperation between the Persian Hirbodan Company and the Omani Oil Company. Both nations founded the Hurmuz Petrochemical Company as a joint venture to continue cooperation on construction and energy projects.

Closer economic ties between the Omanis and Iranians have the potential to consolidate Tehran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz—a 21-mile-wide choke point through which 17 million barrels of oil per day travel from the Persian Gulf countries to destinations in Japan, Europe, and the United States.

Tehran is also suspected of meddling in war-torn Yemen, where Saudi Arabia recently launched a military offensive against the Houthi rebels in the northern territory of Saada. In a statement by Iran’s chief of staff yesterday, General Hassan Firouzabad asserted that the Saudi offensive signals a trend of a ”state of terrorism” that will lead to further violence in the region. Both the Yemeni and Saudi governments claim that the Iranians are funding the Houthi rebels because they also adhere to Shiite Islam.

GMU’s Mark Katz argues that this accusation is off base, aimed at securing funds and support from Western nations worried about Iranian hegemony. “The Houthis are indeed Shi’ites, but belong to the Zaidi sect and not the Twelver sect predominant in Iran (indeed, the two sects have historically been rivals),” Katz writes.

In fact, until the recent outbreak of violence, the Yemeni government enjoyed fairly good relations with Tehran. So while the verdict on Iranian meddling in Yemen is out for now, this much is sure: Tehran considers Yemen within the Iranian sphere of influence and wants to ensure that the Western powers (and the Saudis) do not interfere.

How will the United States and its Arab allies respond to Tehran’s covert drive for dominance in the Persian Gulf? So far, no one seems to have any answers.

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November 18, 2009 6:17 PM ET
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Luqman Ameen Abdullah. Photo from the Council on American-Islamic Relations and Fox News.

In October, a shootout at a warehouse in Dearborn, Mich., claimed the life of Luqman Abdullah, the imam of Detroit’s Masjid al-Haqq, and in the process garnered national attention. Abdullah had been a Detroit representative to al-Ummah, which a criminal complaint filed by an FBI special agent describes as "a nationwide radical fundamentalist Sunni group consisting primarily of African-Americans." (Others, including the Muslim Alliance in North America, strongly deny this characterization.)

The next issue of CTR Vantage, a publication of the Center for Terrorism Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, will focus on the shooting incident and the movement that Abdullah represented. Today we provide an advance look at the upcoming issue by publishing an article I co-wrote with Madeleine Gruen that will be the next issue's lead piece. An excerpt:

Al-Ummah—which is either a splinter from, or a cover for, the Darul Islam movement—had been led by Jamil al-Amin, who was formerly known as 1960s firebrand H. Rap Brown. Though al-Amin is reportedly still considered al-Ummah’s leader by the group’s members, he has not been involved in day-to-day operations for some time: he is currently serving a life sentence at the Supermax prison in Florence, Colorado, following his 2002 conviction for shooting two police officers in Georgia.

In May 2009 in Alabama, Luqman Abdullah claimed while under surveillance that al-Amin had created al-Ummah out of fear of government interference. Two years before Abdullah became part of the movement, several Darul members were killed in a shooting in New York. “Jamil Al-Amin said they had to divide the group because having too many people in one organization made them an easy target,” the criminal complaint against Abdullah recounts. “According to Abdullah, the group is still Dar-Ul, but this is not widely known because of the United States government. The Ummah is a cover name for Dar-Ul.”

Multiple sources estimate that al-Ummah under al-Amin had “approximately thirty branches in America and the Caribbean.” Muslim journalist Steven Barboza stated that al-Amin’s “followers are said to number around 10,000 Muslims.”

Detroit’s Masjid Al-Haqq, which had been located at 4118 Joy Road, was an al-Ummah mosque. It was not only used for prayer services but also for weapons and combat training. Abdullah also lived on the premises with his family. In January 2009, Abdullah and his followers were evicted from the mosque for nonpayment of property taxes. Authorities recovered firearms, knives and martial arts weapons from Abdullah’s apartment in the mosque, and observed “empty shell casings on the basement floor, and large holes in the concrete wall of the ‘shooting range.’” Although the mosque was located in an urban environment, it was surrounded by empty lots on all sides, and was thus relatively secluded.

To read the full article, click here.

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November 18, 2009 2:51 PM ET
By Wes Bruer

Ansar al Awlaki (left), and Major Nidal Hasan (right).

As more clues emerge and investigations continue in the Fort Hood shootings, the debate rages as to what Major Nidal Hasan's motives were. The facts that are already known, however, seem to paint a pretty clear picture of how these events unfolded, and what Hasan's intentions were.

Hasan's suspicious behavior:

Hasan had expressed concern to family members over the prospect of being deployed, but his statements and actions went far beyond that. He openly opposed the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and said that Muslims fighting other Muslims would result in "adverse effects." After the murder of two Army recruiters in Little Rock, Ark., Hasan stated that more of these types of attacks should be carried out and that US soldiers are legitimate targets at home and abroad. He even posted on the Internet a statement to the effect that suicide bombings are equivalent to a soldier's diving on a grenade to save fellow soldiers. Despite all of these ideas and opinions, Hasan never formally sought permission to leave the Army as a conscientious objector or for any other reason.

According to Army psychiatrists, Hasan had become so enamored with Islam that they ordered him to attend university lectures on Islam and terrorism. In 2007, he was due to give a presentation for senior Army doctors on a medical topic. Instead, in a presentation illustrated with 50 slides, Hasan lectured the doctors on Islam, the Koran, and jihad. Hasan did not try to hide where his allegiance lies in this war. As an Army psychiatrist, Hasan was supposed to help the troops deal with traumas they had experienced while deployed. Instead, he checked with superiors to determine whether he could provide evidence against soldiers for alleged war crimes that he discovered in speaking with soldiers in the course of his work.

Day of the shooting:

The morning of the shooting, Hasan had given away some of his belongings; he had given away a Koran the day before. He phoned one neighbor to say goodbye and told another "I am ready," which she interpreted as "I figured, he’s with God. He’s ready to go fight.” Hasan then made a stop to pray at the Islamic Community of Greater Killeen mosque, where he had attended services for the previous three months. After entering the Soldier Readiness Center, Hasan sat at an empty table, bowing his head for a moment. He then shouted "Allahu Akbar" and opened fire with two handguns.

Following the shooting:

A lot of finger-pointing has already taken place, and it will continue to distract attention from the facts. Just weeks ago, an FOIA lawsuit forced the FBI to release details of its investigation methods. In the redacted manual that was published, it was revealed that agents are permitted to collect information on an individual based on his or her religion. Many civil liberties groups and privacy advocates are up in arms over this method of investigation. One thing is certain: the controversy underlines the difficulties agents can encounter during an investigation that can lead to mishandling of the case.

Certainly information was bungled in this case; it seems there was an interagency communications problem as well. Lawmakers are already calling for investigations into the matter, and the Obama administration has recently ordered an investigation into the handling of intelligence gathering in this case. Representative Pete Hoekstra, ranking member of the Intelligence Committee, is calling for a full investigation into Hasan's contacts with radical cleric Ansar al Awlaki and others. Authorities have also recently opened an investigation into whether Hasan was wiring money to or receiving wire transfers from Pakistan before the shooting occurred.

The Defense Department is also taking a harder look at why some of the red flags were ignored or mishandled. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has ordered a probe of Pentagon procedures that go beyond the Army: “Gates wants a probe that hits all corners of the Pentagon,” the Pentagon press secretary stated. Another official said that other warning signs that may have been overlooked will be examined to determine whether the potential exists that other dangerous service members are still active. Although none of Hasan’s superiors saw him as a threat, they did notice a worrisome change in his behavior; the Pentagon probe will also review whether these behavioral changes were properly handled. Hasan is currently facing 13 counts of premeditated murder, and Army Criminal Investigators are considering whether any additional charges will be filed

The connection:

As noted above, Hasan had been in regular contact with the radical imam Anwar al Awlaki. Prior to the Fort Hood shootings, the FBI had intercepted 10 to 20 emails between the two men, but the investigations were halted after investigators determined the emails' content was "consistent with the subject matter of [Hasan's] research." Most of the subject matter discussed in the emails is said to have been questions posed to the imam regarding spiritual matters. Awlaki is reported to have been a spiritual advisor to 9/11 hijacker Nawaf al-Hamzi, as well as to Nidal Hasan, even presiding at Hasan's mother's funeral in 2001. Awlaki has garnered a following among Western Muslims as most of his sermons are predominantly in English. He incorporates new media and has operated his blog espousing jihad since his release.

Just days following the shooting at Fort Hood, Awlaki posted articles expressing his admiration for Hasan's actions. "He is a hero. Nidal opened fire on soldiers who were on their way to be deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan. How can there be any dispute about the virtue of what he has done? In fact the only way a Muslim could Islamically justify serving as a soldier in the US army is if his intention is to follow the footsteps of men like Nidal." Awlaki, who has been hiding out from Yemeni authorities, recently spoke to a Yemeni journalist. The imam claimed to have neither pressured nor ordered the attacks but said that Hasan had become a close confidant and that he had noticed Hasan’s growing discomfort with the US military. When asked why he praised Hasan as a hero, Awlaki responded “I blessed the act because it was against a military target. And the soldiers who were killed were not normal soldiers, but those who were trained and prepared to go to Afghanistan and Iraq.”

Background on Anwar al-Awlaki:

Awlaki, or Aulaqi, first came to the attention of the FBI in 1999, when he was thought to have been contacted by a "procurement agent" for Osama bin Laden. Awlaki's name appears dozens of times in the 9/11 Commission Report outlining his associations with two of the hijackers. After preaching at the Dar al Hijra mosque in Falls Church, Va., Awlaki left for Yemen in 2002 to continue preaching at a Rabat mosque. He was detained in Yemen in 2006 for ties to terrorists, but was released the following year. In January of this year, Awlaki posted an article on the Internet called "44 ways to support jihad." In it, he states that it is obligatory for every Muslim to engage or assist in jihad against America and its allies. He calls for non-fighting Muslims to provide material, financial, and moral support to those waging war against the West. Awlaki is currently being sought by Yemeni authorities for issuing fatwas (religious decrees) allowing militants to kidnap foreigners. Yemeni officials believe he is presently taking refuge in one of the Yemeni provinces that has a heavy al Qaeda presence.

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November 18, 2009 10:08 AM ET
By Bill Roggio

Major General Athar Abbas, the Director General of Inter Services Public Relations.

Here is a very bad sign that the Pakistani Army views the very narrow offensive against the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan in South Waziristan as sufficient to defeat the Taliban. Major General Athar Abbas, the top military spokesman, in Reuters:

‘You have defeated the main, strongest terrorist organisation of the area and it will create effects all around.

It creates voids all around and will open more options for the state and military,’ Abbas said.

‘Maybe you don’t have to conduct more operations. By those effects you can achieve those objectives,’ he said.

As I've explained, Hakeemullah Mehsud's forces have regrouped outside of South Waziristan (they were always well established in the tribal areas and the great northwest). They are sheltering in areas where the military cut peace agreements with "good" Taliban leaders. Without taking on the Taliban in these regions, they will not be defeated, but merely displaced.

Also see Syed Saleem Shahzad's excellent piece in the Asia Times on this subject.

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November 17, 2009 11:39 AM ET
By Bill Roggio

Wanted flyer for Swat Taliban leaders. Fazlullah is in the top right.

Mullah Fazlullah, the leader of the Swat Taliban, has surfaced in Afghanistan and has threatened to reignite the insurgency in Pakistan's Swat Valley. From BBC:

"I have reached Afghanistan safely," Maulana Fazlullah told BBC Urdu. "We are soon going to launch full-fledged punitive raids against the army in Swat."

The voice was recognisably Maulana Fazlullah's - he has a very distinct way of pronouncing words. I have spoken to him on several occasions and met him twice.

Maulana Fazlullah was calling from an Afghan number and sounded in good spirits when he called on Monday. He said that those claiming success for the Swat operation should try to prevent drone attacks and the US security firm Blackwater from operating in Pakistan.

He issued a warning to the North West Frontier Province's information minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain.

"The authorities should beware, especially Mian Iftikhar Hussain, whose fate will be like that of Najibullah," he warned, referring to Dr Najibullah who was Afghan president before the Taliban hanged him in 1996 when they took Kabul.

The Pakistani military and government had Fazlullah written off as dead several times last summer. It would be interesting to know where Fazlullah is in Afghanistan. Good money would put him somewhere in Nuristan or Kunar, where US forces are shutting down bases and allowing the Taliban to openly govern in parts of these provinces.

The Taliban said the US pullback from Nuristan has given the group new life to operate. These claims were dismissed by some Western observers as Taliban propaganda. But Fazlullah's emergence in Afghanistan shows the claims are not merely propaganda.

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November 15, 2009 10:35 PM ET
By Bill Roggio

The Sunday Times has an interesting and disturbing story of an Irishman who converted to Islam while in a Saudi jail and has left the UK to become a jihadi. Khalid Kelly, as he is now known, is of course training in Pakistan. Interestingly enough, he's in the Swat Valley:

After a period underground, Kelly has now re-emerged in Pakistan’s Swat valley, where the army recently drove out the Taliban in a three-month military operation. He travels frequently to Rawalpindi, a garrison city next to the nation’s capital Islamabad, to meet contacts and spread his radical jihadist message.

In a meeting in one of the city’s parks last month he told The Sunday Times that he had a “divine calling” to kill. “I would feel good because you are killing for God. I have practised enough mentally to know that when my time comes I’ll be ready. I pray every night for bravery,” he said.

Kelly said he moved to Pakistan to join the “best of the best” in the jihadist struggle and to work towards replacing the civilian government with an Islamic one. As Islamabad vows to take on Islamic militants, Kelly harbours a dark hope that Pakistan will become like Iraq with “beheadings and kidnappings”.

The fact that an Irishman like Kelly feels comfortable enough to surface in the Swat Valley speaks volumes about the security situation there. The military has claimed the Taliban have been defeated in Swat, even though clashes with the Taliban occur there regularly. And the fact Kelly freely travels to and openly operates in Rawalpindi shows that the spread of radical Islam is going on unchecked in the home of Pakistan's military.

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November 14, 2009 8:36 PM ET
By Bill Roggio

A British memo that advocates reconciliation with the Taliban - all the way to the top level with the Quetta Shura - has surfaced. The BBC has the report:

"We must weaken and divide the Taliban if we are to reduce the insurgency to a level that can be managed and contained by the Afghan Security Forces," begins a section headed "Agenda Items 3".

"This can be achieved by a combination of military pressure and clear signals that the option of an honourable exit from the fight exists.

"Putting in place the right combination of carrot and stick, at the right moment, will be critical to changing the calculations of individual commanders and their men."

The memo then calls for an Afghan-led, internationally backed process that works on three levels.

Firstly "tactical", involving reintegrating foot soldiers and their immediate commanders.

Secondly "operational", involving the reintegration of the Taliban's "shadow governors", senior commanders and their forces.

Finally, what is called "strategic". The latter is described as "reconciliation - a settlement with (most of) the Quetta Shura."

The memo ignores the realities on the ground in Afghanistan and in NATO capitals, and is fueled by a deep misunderstanding of the nature of the Taliban.

Continue reading "British advocate negotiations with the Taliban Quetta Shura"

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November 14, 2009 2:59 PM ET
By Bill Roggio

Scores of children train to become suicide bombers at a camp run by Qair Hussain in Spinkai, South Waziristan. Image courtesy of AfPax Insider.

Qari Hussain Mehsud, the Pakistani Taliban commander and trainer of child suicide bombers, has threatened to step up attacks throughout the country if the military did not end operations in South Waziristan. According to Xinhua, he "challenged the government to stop the wave of suicide attacks if it can."

He claimed responsibility for the Friday's suicide attacks on the office of the intelligence agency ISI in Peshawar and police station in the city of Bannu. Up to 20 people were killed and 60 others were injured in the attacks on the ISI office and police station.

Hussain told the BBC Urdu service that the ISI office was targeted as secret agencies have a major role in the government policy-making.

"These attacks are reaction to the military operation in Waziristan and Pakistan's help and joining the anti-terror campaign," he said.

About the military operation in South Waziristan, the Taliban leader said that the fighters have retreated under a strategy. "The strategy is aimed at saving our manpower and weapons for guerrilla war in the region," Hussain said. He said Taliban will soon launch guerrilla war against the Pakistan army in South Waziristan.

According to AKI, the Taliban leadership cadre has relocated to "their new base in the town of Shawal, located in neighbouring North Waziristan tribal area," and will step up attacks against the Pakistani security forces nationwide.

My sources are saying that is correct, but they add that the Taliban have also regrouped in South Waziristan, Arakzai, and Khyber (I'll expand on this and the state of the South Waziristan operation in the near future at LWJ). The short of it is that the narrow focus of the Pakistani military's operation, absent action in the rest of the tribal areas, will deal only a tactical defeat to the Pakistani Taliban.

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November 13, 2009 11:27 PM ET
By Bill Roggio

Ajmal Kasab, the lone Lashkar-e-Taiba operative captured after the Mumbai assault, outside of the train station.

Mohawat Hussain Rana, one of two US-based terror suspects involved in plots to attack a Danish newspaper as well as targets in India, has two brothers serving in senior positions in the Pakistani Army. Rediff News reported that Rana instructed David Headley, his co-conspirator, to get in touch with his brothers:

Sources in both the IB [the Intelligence Bureau, India's equivalent of the FBI] and investigating agencies told rediff.com say they managed to track down Headley's Pakistan army link through the transcripts of his email. Headley interacted with his bosses in Pakistan through the ID mov.monie@yahoo.com.

Investigating agencies say Headley used another email ID to interact with Rana. In his reply, Rana told Headley to get in touch with two of his brothers, identified as Brigadier Mohawat Rana and [Brigadier] Sibte Hassan Rana Monie from Rawalpindi.

There are reports that one or both of the two unnamed Pakistani conspirators who worked with Rana and Headley are Pakistani military officers. My sources said that Rana's brothers are not the unnamed suspects.

Headley is suspected of scouting Mumbai for the Lashkar-e-Taiba prior to the deadly 62-hour terror assault on the city that left more than 170 dead. Headley spent 10 days at the Taj Hotel, which was one of the primary targets of the Lashkar-e-Taiba operation in Mumbai.

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November 13, 2009 2:29 PM ET
By Bill Roggio

Osama bin Laden escorted by the Black Guard.

Jean-Louis Bruguiere, a former French investigative magistrate who specialized on al Qaeda and investigated the terror group in Pakistan, has more damning information on al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and the groups' ties to each other and the Pakistani state. From Reuters:

In an interview, Bruguiere said he was convinced Lashkar-e-Taiba, first set up to fight India in its part of the divided Himalayan region of Kashmir, had become part of an international network tied to al Qaeda.

'Lashkar-e-Taiba is no longer a Pakistani movement with only a Kashmir political or military agenda. Lashkar-e-Taiba is a member of al Qaeda. Lashkar-e-Taiba has decided to expand violence worldwide,' he told Reuters.

Bruguiere goes on to explain that shoe-bomber Richard Reid and three other Westerns were trained in a Lashkar-e-Taiba camp by Pakistani soldiers who doubled as members of the Lashkar-e-Taiba. The training camp was supported by the Pakistani Army. "Military supplies were dropped by army helicopters," Reuters reported.

Here is some background on the Lashkar-e-Taiba and al Qaeda given to me by US intelligence officials last year:

Lashkar-e-Taiba has an extensive network in southern and Southeast Asia. A senior US military intelligence official described the group as "al Qaeda junior," as it has vast resources, an extensive network, and is able to carry out complex attacks throughout its area of operations. "If by some stroke of luck al Qaeda collapsed, LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba) could step in and essentially take its place."

The relationship between al Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba is complex, the official noted. "While Lashkar-e-Taiba is definitely subordinate to al Qaeda in many ways, it runs its own network and has its own command structure. The groups often train in each others' camps, and fight side by side in Afghanistan."

Lashkar-e-Taiba forces fought alongside al Qaeda and Taliban in the assault on the US combat outpost in Wanat in Nuristan province, Afghanistan in July of this year. Nine US troops were killed, and 15 US soldiers and four Afghan troops were wounded in the heavy fight that nearly ended in the outpost being overrun. US forces ultimately broke the attack.

That final reference to Wanat is evidence of what we now know as al Qaeda's Lashkar al Zil, or the Shadow Army. This is al Qaeda's military organization manned by the various jihadi groups, including the Lashkar-e-Taiba.

For more on Bruguiere's accusations of the Pakistani-jihadi nexus, see "French prosecutor points out Pakistan links to jihadis."

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November 13, 2009 12:03 PM ET
By Austin Knuppe

According to the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), a Paris-based group comprised of Iranian exiles (and some insiders in Iran), Tehran’s Grand Ayatollah, Ali Khamenei, has sanctioned the creation of a new intelligence organization charged with shielding the regime from domestic uprisings.

Hassan Taeb, previously a lead commander of the Basij militia, is heading the Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). According to unconfirmed reports, this new unit will report directly to the Grand Ayatollah and will incorporate many other agencies previously organized under Tehran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security. These seven agencies include:

• The old intelligence directorate of the IRGC, consisting of several pursuit and surveillance units.

• The IRGC cyber defense unit, called the “Control Center for Internet Activities.” This unit is headquartered in the Firouzeh Palace district in the township of Kamali, where the IRGC also has a covert office.

• Select units of the Internal Security Directorate at the Ministry of Intelligence and Security.

• The Security Directorate of the Basij paramilitary force, consisting of a domestic espionage and monitoring network.

• Khamenei’s personal intelligence unit, called “Office 101.”

• Several plainclothes units (which monitor street protests in and around the capital) at the IRGC’s Tehran headquarters.

• The “Sarallah Corps,” an elite infantry unit of the IRGC that commands the police and other paramilitary units around the country.

This bureaucratic shuffle is more than a simple reorganization. Ayatollah Khamenei—with the tacit consent of the IRGC—is reforming a state apparatus with the sole purpose of quelling domestic protests. It also gives Khamenei more consolidated control should continued fissures develop in the the current regime. By filling the ranks of the IRGC with Khamenei loyalists, the Grand Ayatollah is controlling an organization with its hands in many different facets of Iranian society.

Since last June’s disputed presidential election, the IRGC has also gained control over state media by using Mobin, one of the IRGC’s subsidiary companies, to purchase a majority share in the government’s Telecommunication Company of Iran (TCI). With this purchase, the IRGC now controls both the medium and the message of Iran’s news cycle.

One question that has yet to be answered is to what degree the IRGC has autonomy even from the Ayatollah. In a recent news article Alireza Nader, an Iran analyst at the RAND Corporation, observed: “The Revolutionary Guards and security forces are being reorganized not only to provide ultimate control for Khamenei, but for the guards specifically…. I question whether Khamenei is the overall or major driver of these changes. The Revolutionary Guards appear to answer to no one." If Nader is correct, we may see the IRGC take a subtle drift away from both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. As long as Khamenei fills the ranks of the IRGC with his loyalists, however, this will most likely not be the case.

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November 12, 2009 2:20 PM ET
By Bill Roggio

Britain's Ministry of Defence website has an article that perfectly illustrates what is wrong with the rules of engagement in Afghanistan. A British sniper spotted what he believed was a Taliban spotter who was directing fire on the sniper's fellow soldiers, and instead of killing the spotter, he fired a warning shot:

The soldier, who can only be known as Corporal Danny for security reasons, shot at the feet of an unarmed man who was apparently directing gunfire at Cpl Danny's unit, an Army spokesman said.

Armed with a .338-calibre rifle, Cpl Danny, from 4th Battalion The Rifles, serving with the 3rd Battalion The Rifles Battle Group, was watching over his patrol in the village of Sadul Kariz, which lies to the north east of Sangin, northern Helmand.

The soldiers stopped to drink tea at a mosque when Cpl Danny saw movement in a compound which had previously been used as an insurgent firing point. Cpl Danny warned his patrol over the radio, but as the soldiers moved away there was a burst of gunfire.

Cpl Danny could not see exactly where the shots were coming from but he saw a man near the compound pointing towards the patrol. Uncertain that the man was indeed part of the attack, Cpl Danny took a split-second decision and fired a single shot into the ground five metres in front of him. At this point, the man ran away and the firing stopped.

Bing West said it best in a videotape he took of recent combat action in Afghanistan: "Leaving your enemy intact is not a smart idea in any war."

As long as Taliban spotters know that they are immune from attack for spotting our troops, they will continue to do so.

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November 12, 2009 12:47 AM ET
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

Yesterday the Star Tribune (published in Minneapolis-St. Paul) reported on a seemingly significant arrest in the Netherlands related to the al Shabaab recruiting networks that have centered on the Twin Cities area. From the Star Tribune:

A 43-year-old Somali man from Minneapolis was arrested this week in the Netherlands for allegedly financing the recruitment of up to 20 young Somali men from Minnesota to train and fight with terrorists in their homeland.... The identity of the man, who was arrested Sunday at an asylum-seeker's center 45 miles northeast of Amsterdam, was not released. But Special Agent E.K. Wilson of the Minneapolis FBI office confirmed Tuesday that the man was arrested in connection with the ongoing counterterrorism investigation that began here when young men began disappearing in 2007. "We are aware of this individual and of this arrest. And it is tied to our ongoing Minneapolis investigation," Wilson said. "We are and have been working closely with Dutch authorities through our legal attaché office in Brussels and coordinating with the Department of Justice Office of International Affairs." Dutch prosecutors said in a statement that the man lived in Minneapolis before leaving the United States in November 2008 and arrived in the Netherlands about one month later. The statement said American authorities asked for the man's arrest and are seeking to have him extradited.... According to the Dutch statement, U.S. prosecutors suspect the man of bankrolling the purchase of weapons for Islamic extremists and helping other Somalis travel to Somalia in 2007 and 2008.

The article refers to this as likely "the most significant development yet" in the investigation into US-based Shabaab recruiting networks. This assessment appears to be correct. A recent article in CTR Vantage that examines Shabaab recruiting networks in the West shows that though recruiters seem to play a significant role in these networks, much is still not known about them. Those arrested to date in the Twin Cities case have been people who traveled to Somalia, or those who facilitated the travel, but the recruiters have been largely in the shadows. For example, when 26-year-old Salah Osman Ahmed pleaded guilty to providing material support to terrorists based on his travel to Somalia, he spoke elliptically of the recruiters who helped draw him there, mentioning "secret meetings" beginning in October 2007 with people he would only describe as "guys." The arrest of a bigger player in the case may provide greater insight into these networks.

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November 10, 2009 5:39 PM ET
By Matt Dupee

Poppy pods procured from Kandahar City. They were lanced six times each, indicating a slightly above average extraction of raw opium. Photo by Matt Dupee.

“I’ve been in this business a long time, but it really disturbs me when I see the opium workshops in Mawand that are completely run with children labor.” This is how Suleiman, a thuggish drug trader from southern Afghanistan, described Afghanistan’s narcotics industry to me when I was in Kandahar this past June. “They would line up around the compound each morning, just hoping and praying they would get picked to work for a wage that’s less than 40 Pakistani rupees [less than $1] a day. They become instant addicts cooking the opium in large vats.”

Sadly, Suleiman’s story is not uncommon. According to UN statistics, nearly two-thirds of all Afghan opium, some 6,900 tons last year, is converted into morphine-base or heroin in grubby workshops like those he described before being smuggled out of the country. That’s enough opium to make well over 600 metric tons of heroin. Keep in mind that the United States and Canada, with a combined population exceeding 330 million, consumes approximately 22 tons of heroin annually.

Afghanistan’s unparalleled narcotics industry has produced over 90% of the world’s illicit opium and heroin for six years in a row. International efforts to dismantle the Afghan narcotics machine have been insufficient, and only recently has the picture begun to improve slightly. The Obama administration overhauled the US counternarcotics strategy this year, removing forced eradication measures and stepping up interdiction, drug seizures, and attacks on clandestine drug refinement labs across the country. The revised strategy, along with the increase in interdiction activity that was begun late last year, is apparently having an effect. According to the UNODC, during the first half of this year NATO and Afghan operations destroyed over 90 tons of precursor chemicals used in the production of illicit drugs, 450 tons of opium poppy seeds, 77.5 tons of narcotics, and 27 laboratories.

Although interdiction is a step in the right direction, not nearly enough is being done to target the essential precursor chemicals smuggled into Afghanistan that augment the capabilities of drug refinement workshops. While 90 tons of precursor chemicals sounds like a lot, consider that Afghanistan annually uses nearly 14,500 tons of such chemicals to refine opium into a usable substance. Last year, less than 68 tons of precursor chemicals were interdicted. This year, during my travels north of Kabul in late June, I saw dozens of heavy transport trucks carrying shipments of precursor chemicals likely to have been acetic anhydride, the key ingredient used to refine opium into morphine base and heroin. The trucks traveled on main thoroughfares, and their drivers made no effort to conceal their illicit cargo. Political protection for these types of convoys is said to be traceable to the highest levels of the Afghan government. In areas controlled by insurgents such as the Taliban, commanders are providing the necessary protection for drug shipments and precursor chemicals under the guise of “transit-taxes,” earning insurgents well over $75 million annually in protection fees.

Afghanistan’s narcotics industry continues to erode security and stability initiatives, entrenches corruption deep within the Afghan central government, and feeds a growing generation of heroin addicts across South Asia. Meanwhile, diseases like HIV/AIDS continue to spread at unprecedented rates due to the increase in intravenous drug use, a relatively new phenomenon in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan’s narco-problem will not simply go away by itself. In order to even begin to turn the tide against this robust and entrenched industry, corruption must be fought and security established, long enough to allow for meaningful agricultural assistance; the core infrastructure must be developed, such as creating cold-storage depots and improving roadways; and micro-financing must be made available for farmers. In addition, it will be essential to target the nexus between drug producers and traffickers, on the one hand, and government officials and insurgent commanders on the other. Unless Afghanistan's narcotics problem is properly addressed, the country will be consumed by its own corruption, bad governance, and a thriving insurgency fueled by narco-profits and criminality.

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November 9, 2009 9:48 PM ET
By Bill Roggio

Even as the FBI continues to investigate if Fort Hood shooter Major Nidal Malik Hasan has links to al Qaeda, investigators are rushing to declare that he "acted alone and without outside direction," the Associated Press reported.

Over at The Weekly Standard, Thomas Joscelyn takes a hard look at Anwar al Awlaki, the radical cleric who is linked to three of the 9/11 hijackers and who has fled the country to reside in Yemen, where he still preaches jihad. Now, the AP reports that Hasan has been in direct contact, via email, with Awlaki:

In late 2008, officials said, a separate investigation revealed Hasan's communications with another individual they declined to identify. Separately, another U.S.official said the person Hasan was communicating with was Anwar al-Awlaki, a radical imam overseas who has come under scrutiny for possible links to terror groups. All of the officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the case on the record.

Eventually, a joint terrorism task force learned of about 10 or 20 such communications between the two. Officials would not identify the exact type of communications, but al-Awlaki operates a Web site that invites readers to e-mail him.

And it gets more interesting. Alwaki praised Hasan's actions on his blog:

Nidal Hassan is a hero. He is a man of conscience who could not bear living the contradiction of being a Muslim and serving in an army that is fighting against his own people. This is a contradiction that many Muslims brush aside and just pretend that it doesn’t exist. Any decent Muslim cannot live, understanding properly his duties towards his Creator and his fellow Muslims, and yet serve as a US soldier. The US is leading the war against terrorism which in reality is a war against Islam. Its army is directly invading two Muslim countries and indirectly occupying the rest through its stooges.

Nidal opened fire on soldiers who were on their way to be deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan. How can there be any dispute about the virtue of what he has done? In fact the only way a Muslim could Islamically justify serving as a soldier in the US army is if his intention is to follow the footsteps of men like Nidal.

The heroic act of brother Nidal also shows the dilemma of the Muslim American community. Increasingly they are being cornered into taking stances that would either make them betray Islam or betray their nation. Many amongst them are choosing the former. The Muslim organizations in America came out in a pitiful chorus condemning Nidal’s operation.
The fact that fighting against the US army is an Islamic duty today cannot be disputed. No scholar with a grain of Islamic knowledge can defy the clear cut proofs that Muslims today have the right -rather the duty- to fight against American tyranny. Nidal has killed soldiers who were about to be deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan in order to kill Muslims. The American Muslims who condemned his actions have committed treason against the Muslim Ummah and have fallen into hypocrisy.

Here is what we know about Hasan so far:

• Hasan attended the Dar al Hijrah mosque in Great Falls, Va., in 2001 at the same time as two of the 9/11 hijackers.
• Hasan openly praised Anwar al Awlaki, who preached at the Dar al Hijrah in 2001.
• Hasan had direct email communication with Awlaki.
• Hasan openly opposed the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
• Hasan told coworkers that US troops are legitimate targets both at home and overseas.
• Hasan praised the murder of two US soldiers who were killed outside a recruitment center in Little Rock, Ark., and said more such attacks should occur.
• On a web posting, Hasan said suicide bombings are justified and compared suicide bombers to US soldiers diving on a grenade to save their buddies.
• Hasan casually espoused his radical religious views to colleagues in the course of his work as a medical professional.
• Hasan was disciplined for proselytizing his radical religious views.
• Hasan gave away his Koran and other worldly good the morning before he carried out the attack.
• Hasan shouted "Allahu Akbar" before murdering troops at Fort Hood.
• Hasan conducted his attack at a center where US soldiers were processing to prepare for deployment to Iraq.

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November 8, 2009 1:19 PM ET
By Bill Ardolino

Here is some very good news:

Iraq's parliament has approved a long-delayed law governing national elections scheduled to be held next January, officials have said.

Members of parliament passed the law with 141 votes in favour in the 275-seat parliament after overcoming disagreements over the disputed city of Kirkuk.

Sunday's vote came after delays the previous night due to concerns from the Sunni Muslim bloc within parliament.

The parliamentary election is seen as a crucial test for the country as it attempts to emerge from the sectarian carnage and civil strife that has followed the US-led invasion in 2003.

While the underlying dispute over Kirkuk has not been resolved by the law's passage, the agreement includes this crucial positive detail:

The election law provides for an open candidate list, allowing voters to cast their ballot for an individual rather than a party. It also sets aside five seats in parliament for minorities.

It was vital to permit open candidate lists in order to maintain Iraq's popular trend towards nationalism, elevate truly qualified leaders, and break sectarian party strangleholds on government ministries. Notably, open list elections were supported by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and opposed by some of the major Kurdish and Shia Arab parties, the latter of which are often portrayed in the media as running Iraq at Iran's behest.

The open source news reports are typically light on detail, but this looks to be a milestone essential to Iraq's potential stability and political progress.

* The title is of course a light poke at Thomas Ricks' "Iraq, the Unraveling" series of blog posts, which I believe focus on negative aspects of Iraq without due consideration of what is working, when it works. Today it looks as if something important worked.

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November 7, 2009 8:18 PM ET
By Bill Roggio

While some news outlets entertain the ridiculous notion that Fort Hood shooter Major Nidal Malik Hasan was the victim of "vicarious traumatization," more evidence emerges that indicates Hasan was radicalized. The Telegraph reported that Hasan attended the same Virgina mosque as three of the 9/11 bombers, while NPR said he casually espoused his religious views to colleagues in the course of his work as a medical professional.

The Telegraph:

Hasan, the sole suspect in the massacre of 13 fellow US soldiers in Texas, attended the controversial Dar al-Hijrah mosque in Great Falls, Virginia, in 2001 at the same time as two of the September 11 terrorists, The Sunday Telegraph has learnt. His mother's funeral was held there in May that year.

The preacher at the time was Anwar al-Awlaki, an American-born Yemeni scholar who was banned from addressing a meeting in London by video link in August because he is accused of supporting attacks on British troops and backing terrorist organisations.

Hasan's eyes "lit up" when he mentioned his deep respect for al-Awlaki's teachings, according to a fellow Muslim officer at the Fort Hood base in Texas, the scene of Thursday's horrific shooting spree.

As investigators look at Hasan's motives and mindset, his attendance at the mosque could be an important piece of the jigsaw. Al-Awlaki moved to Dar al-Hijrah as imam in January, 2001, from the west coast, and three months later the September 11 hijackers Nawaf al-Hamzi and Hani Hanjour began attending his services. A third hijacker attended his services in California.

Hasan was praying at Dar al-Hijrah at about the same time, and the FBI will now want to investigate whether he met the two terrorists.

Charles Allen, a former under-secretary for intelligence at the Department of Homeland Security, has described al-Awlaki, who now lives in Yemen, as an "al-Qaeda supporter, and former spiritual leader to three of the September 11 hijackers... who targets US Muslims with radical online lectures encouraging terrorist attacks from his new home in Yemen".

NPR:

But he seemed almost belligerent about being Muslim, and he gave a lecture one day that really freaked a lot of doctors out.

They have grand rounds, right? They, you know, dozens of medical staff come into an auditorium, and somebody stands at the podium at the front and gives a lecture about some academic issue, you know, what drugs to prescribe for what condition. But instead of that, he - Hasan apparently gave a long lecture on the Koran and talked about how if you don't believe, you are condemned to hell. Your head is cut off. You're set on fire. Burning oil is burned down your throat.

And I said to the psychiatrist, but this cold [sic] be a very interesting informational session, right? Where he's educating everybody about the Koran. He said but what disturbed everybody was that Hasan seemed to believe these things. And actually, a Muslim in the audience, a psychiatrist, raised his hand and said, excuse me. But I'm a Muslim and I do not believe these things in the Koran, and then I don't believe what you say the Koran says. And then Hasan didn't say, well, I'm just giving you one point of view. He basically just stared the guy down.

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