February 22, 2012 10:42 AM
By Bill Roggio

The Taliban have quickly jumped on the Koran-burning controversy in Afghanistan. In addition to issuing an official statement signed by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan on their website, Voice of Jihad, the Taliban appear to have infiltrated the protests that have sprung up outside of Bagram Air Base. The New York Times reported that Taliban songs were being sung by the crowd and that "several Urdu speakers" gave speeches during the protests:

Protests began hours later, as Afghan workers who had seen the burning emerged from the base, one or two of them carrying damaged Korans hidden in their clothes. Protests swelled through the morning and became violent as hundreds of infuriated Afghans set tires on fire and burned an external checkpoint at one of the entrances to the air base.

Shouting "Death to America" and "We don't want them anymore," they closed the district government building and stopped people trying to go to the center of the town, witnesses said. Some in the crowd sang Taliban songs, and several Urdu speakers, described as Pakistanis, made speeches.

It should come as no surprise that "Pakistanis" are operating near Bagram in Parwan. Keep in mind that the May 2010 assault on Bagram Air Base was executed by a joint Taliban, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and al Qaeda strike team. And within the past six months, the Taliban and allied terror groups have carried out several major complex attacks in Parwan.

On Aug. 14, 2011, a Taliban suicide assault team launched a complex attack on the governor's compound in central Parwan province, killing 22 people, including six policemen. On Oct. 23, a suicide bomber attempted to assassinate the Afghan interior minister in the province. And a few days later, on Oct. 26, terrorists attempted to blow up a fuel tank inside of Bagram Air Base; the tanker exploded outside the gates, killing 12 Afghans.

Despite ISAF operations against the terror cells in Parwan and surrounding provinces, this network appears to be alive and well and springing into action to take advantage of the Koran controversy. ISAF should expect additional complex attacks on Bagram in the near future.

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February 20, 2012 9:02 PM
By Bill Roggio

Kaid al Dhahab, the new AQAP emir for Baydah province. Photo from The Yemen Post.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula released a statement that noted the death of Tariq al Dhahab, the commander who took control of Rada'a in Baydah province last month. Tariq was gunned down in a mosque by one of his older brothers, Hazam, a senior tribal leader in the town who was concerned that Tariq's affiliation with AQAP would bring down the wrath of the Yemeni government.

The AQAP statement was released on jihadist forums on Feb. 19 and was translated by the SITE Intelligence group. SITE astutely noted that AQAP "didn't acknowledge the identity of the killer, saying instead that Tariq and the others were killed 'at the hands of some of those who were pushed by the agent regime of Sana'a.'" AQAP also did not mention that Tariq's followers killed Hazam and others at his home. From the statement, which also notes that two other "brothers" (they appear to be cousins, according to this Yemen Post report) of the Dhahab family who supported AQAP were also killed:

The Emir Sheikh Tariq al-Dhahab, who is a Quraishi descendant, and his blood brother Ahmed and brother Ali al-Qaydhi were martyred after a long journey full of support for the Shariah and the religion, and they were killed at the hands of some of those who were pushed by the agent regime of Sana'a.

The mujahideen, with grace from Allah, were able to take revenge against those who killed them, detonating an explosives-laden vehicle that tore apart their bodies and ended their evil.

The Yemen Post reported yesterday that Kaid al Dhahab has taken control of AQAP in the province, and along with his brother Nabil they "are now trying to regroup Al-Qaeda elements."

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February 19, 2012 11:56 AM
By Bill Roggio

A suicide bomber, likely from al Qaeda in Iraq or the allied Ansar al Islam, killed 19 Iraqi policemen and cadets in an attack outside a police academy in Baghdad today. From Reuters:

The car exploded as it careered into a crowd of cadets whom police had just escorted out of the compound and were standing in the street outside, police working at the academy said.

Police and hospital sources said 14 cadets and five police were killed, and 26 people were wounded. All except two of the wounded were police or cadets.

"I can see body parts scattered on the ground and boots and berets covered with blood. Many cars were set ablaze," said a policeman working at the academy on Palestine Street in northeastern Baghdad.

As Reuters notes, today's suicide attack is the first major mass-casualty suicide attack in Iraq in three weeks. The last attack, on Jan. 27, killed 32 Iraqis, including 16 policemen and Shia worshippers, during a funeral procession in Baghdad.

While al Qaeda in Iraq has been weakened after years of targeting and counterinsurgency operations by Iraqi and US forces, the terror group still maintains a foothold in the country.

Al Qaeda in Iraq carried out three major suicide attacks in Iraq during January 2012. On Jan. 15, terrorists dressed as policemen attacked a government compound and a police station in Ramadi with four suicide bombers; seven police officers and at least six of the attackers were killed during the fighting. Al Qaeda in Iraq claimed credit for the attack.

Just one day earlier, on Jan. 14, a suicide bomber killed more than 50 Shia pilgrims and injured 91 others as they gathered for Arbain in Basra.

And on Jan. 5, at the beginning of Arbain, al Qaeda launched a series of attacks against Shia pilgrims, killing over 60 civilians. The deadliest strike occurred when a suicide bomber detonated at a security checkpoint near Nasiriya; 44 civilians were killed and dozens more were wounded.

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February 18, 2012 11:22 AM
By Bill Roggio

A group calling itself the Al Baraa Ibn Malik Martyrdom Brigade has formed in the Syrian town of Homs, and has said it will employ suicide bombers against Syrian security forces. From Jih@d, a website that tracks al Qaeda and other terror groups:

The footage seems oddly similar to what was released from Iraq in 2003 soon after the American invasion. Masked gunmen posing with their weapons in front of an Al-Qaida flag. But this is not the scene of a Iraqi Al-Qaida video - it is recent footage coming out of Syria.

A group of the so-called "Free Syrian Army" in the occupied city fo Homs has - according to the new video - formed a martyrdom battalion, a special unit committed to carry out suicide bombings in the country.

One Syrian militant explains that the "Al-Baraa Ibn Malik Martyrdom Brigade" will fight the Assad regime and its military with all needs, especially suicide bombers.

Interestingly enough, a group called the Al Baraa bin Malik Brigade formed in in May 2005, and joined with al Qaeda in Iraq. From the START database:

Al-Bara bin Malek Brigades is a specialized cell of suicide bombers within Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's al-Qaeda Organization in the Land of the Two Rivers. The Brigades have launched numerous suicide operations against U.S. and Iraqi government targets and were reportedly responsible for the devastating November 2005 hotel bombings in Jordan that killed almost 60 people.

The formation of the group was announced in June 2005 in a posting on a Jihadist website by a man identifying himself as Abu Doujana al-Ansari, the leader of the Al-Bara bin Malek Brigades. The statement read: "We gladly inform our sheik Osama bin Laden and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi of the formation of al-Bara bin Malek Brigade." However, the group first emerged a month earlier when it claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of six Jordanians who were working in Iraq. The group released a video showing the abductees, and warned Jordanian companies not to cooperate with the United States. The fate of the hostages is as yet unknown.

Al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri has recently urged Muslims inside and outside of Syria to take up arms against the Syrian government. In a statement issued on Feb. 11 and translated by the SITE Intelligence Group, Zawahiri said: "I appeal to every Muslim and every free, honorable one in Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, to rise to help his brothers in Syria with all what he can, with his life, money, wonders, opinion, and information." Telling Syrians not to trust Turkey, the Arab League, or the West, he exhorted the "lions of the Levant" to "[d]evelop the intention of jihad in the Cause of Allah to establish a state that defends the Muslim countries and seeks to liberate the Golan and continue its jihad until it raises the banners of victory above the usurped hills of Jerusalem."

Since the end of December, there have already been five suicide bombings in Syria. The Syrian government said that a pair of suicide bombers targeted security headquarters in Damascus on Dec. 23; over 40 people were reported killed and scores more were wounded in the blasts. On Jan. 6 the Syrian government said that a suicide bomber killed 25 people in an attack on security forces in Damascus. And on Feb. 10, a pair of suicide bombers killed 25 people while targeting security headquarters in Aleppo.

Al Qaeda in Iraq already has a strong presence in Syria [see LWJ report, Eastern Syria becoming a new al Qaeda haven]. The Abdullah Azzam Brigades, a regional al Qaeda affiliate, also is known to operate in Syria. Two of its senior leaders, Saudi citizens Saleh al Qarawi and Suleiman Hamad Al Hablain, have been added to the US's list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists since November 2011. The terror group has denied any involvement in the Dec. 23 suicide attack.

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February 17, 2012 7:31 AM
By Bill Roggio

A Taliban commander who left the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan after an internal feud last year claimed credit for a suicide attack today that killed 39 civilians at a market in Parachinar in the Kurram tribal agency. Fazal Saeed Haqqani defected from the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan last June after publicly chiding the group for intentionally killing civilians. This is what he said when he defected and joined the Haqqani Network, or what Pakistani officials like to call the "good Taliban" (those who do not attack the Pakistani state):

"I repeatedly told the leadership council of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan that they should stop suicide attacks against mosques, markets and other civilian targets," Saeed told AFP by telephone.

"Islam does not allow killings of innocent civilians in suicide attacks," he said, likening what TTP does in Pakistan to "what US troops are doing in Afghanistan" and vowing to continue the fight alone against the Americans.

"I have therefore decided to quit TTP," Saeed said, claiming to have defected along with "hundreds of supporters." A 10-member consultative council will meet within days to formulate the group's programme, he told AFP.

Here is what he said today, while claiming credit for the suicide attack in a call to Reuters:

"We have targeted the Shia community of Parachinar because they were involved in activities against us," he told Reuters by telephone from an undisclosed location.

"We also warn the political administration of Parachinar to stop siding with the Shia community in all our disputes."

So, less than a year after he denounced the Taliban for intentionally killing civilians and defected to the Haqqani Network, Fazal Saeed decides he is justified in murdering civilians.

Last summer, when Fazal Saeed defected, the Pakistani military and government touted the development as a breakthrough in reducing the power of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. The press uncritically repeated this line, held his defection up as yet another sign of the decline of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan, and inflated his position within the Taliban (the press called him the overall leader in Kurram when in fact he commanded several hundred fighters).

But at The Long War Journal and Threat Matrix, we warned you that such views were both wrong and dangerous. Here are two points from a post on June 27, 2011. We even predicted that Fazal Saeed may not consider the Shia to be civilians:

• Note that Fazal didn't condemn suicide bombings, but only attacks against civilians, and at markets and mosques. Presumably all other targets are fair game. And one wonders if Fazal considers Shia to be "civilians," given that he's responsible for the butchering of quite a few in Kurram.
• Fazal's defection from the TTP will likely be touted by some observers as a major blow to the terror group, but in all likelihood, little will change in the big picture. Fazal isn't going up against the TTP, he just dropped out of the fight. He still wants to impose Sharia, or Islamic law, in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, and is continuing to battle US forces in Afghanistan. In all likelihood, Fazal merely joined the so-called "good Taliban," the groups that are favored by the Pakistani state. The Haqqani Network has expanded its influence greatly in Kurram [see this report at AEI from Reza Jan and Jeffrey Dressler for more information], and Fazal may be positioning himself to ally with them (note that Haqqani Network fighters were killed in his camps during last week's Predator strikes).

And see the conclusion to a July 5, 2011 post that addressed the so-called decline of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan in the context of Fazal Saeed's defection:

What you are witnessing [Kurram with Fazal Saeed's defection] is a very cynical game by the Pakistani military and intelligence establishment to get wayward Taliban groups back into the fold.

In other words, Fazal Saeed's "defection" from the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan means little in the big picture when it comes to the jihadi groups that operate in Pakistan. He still supports jihad in Afghanistan, seeks to impose sharia law in Pakistan, and shelters terrorists, including la Qaeda, in areas under his control. Just like the Haqqanis and Taliban commanders such as Hafiz Gul Bahadar and Mullah Nazir, all of whom are not members of the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. The only difference between them and the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan is that the former do not advocate attacking the Pakistani state.

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February 16, 2012 3:56 PM
By Bill Roggio

Emir Saleh (Ibragimkhalil Daudov). Image from Kavkaz Center.

The Islamic Caucasus Emirate announced that Russian troops killed Emir Saleh (Ibragimkhalil Daudov), the terror group's governor of Dagestan and the military commander of the Dagestani front. Saleh's death was announced yesterday by VDagestan, a jihadist site linked to the Caucasus Emirate, and was subsequently translated by Kavkaz Center, another media outlet for the Caucasus Emirate, as follows:

The news of the martyrdom of the DF Emir Saleh distributed by invaders' media had received confirmation from the Command of the Mujahideen of Province of Dagestan. Our Emir Saleh received his long-awaited martyrdom. We mourn him as we mourn every worthy son of the Ummah and Dagestan. May Allah accept his martyrdom and his deeds.

And let his blood be shed as a barakah for the blessed jihad in the Caucasus. And let him be yet another brick in the building of the Islamic State on the territory of the Caucasus Emirate.

Although VDagestan/Kavkaz Center did not provide the exact date of Saleh's death, four terrorists were killed in the village of Gurbuki in Dagestan by Russian forces on Feb. 10, according to RIA Novosti.

Saleh was appointed by Doku Umarov, the emir of the Caucasus Emirate, as both the "Governor" of Dagestan and the "Commander of the Dagestani Front of the Caucasus Emirate's Armed Forces." Saleh replaced Emir Sayfullah, who was the terror group's top judge was well as its leader in Dagestan before he was killed in August 2011.

Saleh may have been replaced by a Turk known as Sheikh Abdusalam, according to the Russia Eurasia Terror Watch (RETWA):

Authorities believe a Turkish "mercenary" identified as "Sheikh Abdusalam" has likely been picked by Dagestani fighters to replace Ibragim Khalil Daudov, Amir of the Dagestani Front, killed earlier this week (see RETWA reporting). Abdusalam was Daudov's deputy. Life News reports that Abdusalam underwent training at a camp for terrorists in Turkey and came to the North Caucasus five years ago.

Al Qaeda commanders are known to serve in senior leadership positions with the Caucasus Emirate [see LWJ report, Russians kill top Caucasus Emirate leader, for more information].

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February 16, 2012 10:45 AM
By Bill Roggio

Tariq al Dhahab, the al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula commander who took control of Rada'a in Baydah province last month, was gunned down in a mosque by one of his older brothers, Hazam, a senior tribal leader in the town. Tariq's followers retaliated, attacking Hazam's home, and killing him. From the Yemen Post:

Hazam broke on Wednesday evening into a mosque, where his brother and some of al-Qaeda militants were living, and killed his Tariq and some of his followers, tribal dignitary from the area told Yemen Post on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

"He has killed his younger brother after he repeatedly warned him not to align himself with the islamists, however his brother was obstinate and did not pay heed to his warnings and advice. That's why he had to kill him before he is killed by the authorities, said the tribal dignitary.

"Al-Qaeda militants have quickly avenged their leader loss as they have launched some attacks on Hazam's, the older brother and tribal chief, house, shelling it with Rocket Propellant Grenades and mortars,"

Furthermore, the younger brother followers (al-Qaeda militants) have also planted some mines around the brother home, leaving Hazam and a number of his guards killed on Thursday morning, the local tribal source added.

While in control of Rada'a, Tariq flew al Qaeda's banner over the citadel and his fighters swore allegiance to Ayman al Zawahiri. He even released a short videotape urging Muslims "to unite and be patient" as "the Islamic Caliphate is coming."

Hazam was one of several tribal leaders who convinced Tariq to withdraw his hundreds of fighters from Rada'a last month. In exchange, more than a dozen al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula fighters, including Hazam's and Tariq's younger brother, Nabil, were freed from prison. Also, the tribal leaders promised to enforce sharia, or Islamic law, in Rada'a.

The prisoner release turns out to be instrumental in solving the problem of filling Tariq's vacancy as the AQAP leader in Baydah province. A US intelligence official who closely tracks Yemen and AQAP said Nabil will succeed Tariq as the new commander for Baydah.

According to The Guardian, Hazam, Tariq, Nabil, and their oldest brother Majid, the current leader of the Dhahab tribe, have all clashed since their father's death two years ago.

Majid, Hazam, Tariq, and Nabil are all brothers-in-law of Anwar al Awlaki, the US citizen who served as a senior al Qaeda operational commander and ideologue. Awlaki was killed in a US drone strike last fall.

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February 16, 2012 9:04 AM
By Bill Roggio

ISAF and Afghan forces continue to target the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan network in the northern Afghan province of Takhar that assassinated a member of parliament in a suicide attack last Christmas. From ISAF's press release:

An Afghan and coalition security force conducted a search for an Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan leader in Dasht-e Qal'ah district, Takhar province, today. The leader was responsible for the Dec. 25, 2011 suicide attack that killed an Afghan government official in Takhar, as well as the movement of weapons, explosives and suicide bombers throughout the area. During the operation the combined force discovered a cache of bomb-making materials which were safely destroyed on site. The security force also detained multiple suspected insurgents during the operation.

One week ago, Afghan's National Directorate of Security (NDS) captured three Taliban fighters who worked for a Peshawar-based commander known as Qari Abdul Rahim, who was involved in the Christmas day attack and other assassinations in the north [see LWJ report, Afghan intelligence captures 3 members of northern assassination cell]. And on Jan. 30, ISAF and Afghan forces killed Ilhom, an Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan commander who was involved in the same attack and who "facilitated the training of suicide bombers for attacks throughout the area."

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February 15, 2012 8:33 AM
By Bill Roggio

The Voice of Jihad, the Taliban's propaganda website, today published a Question and Answer session with CNN. Several items are noteworthy. First, the Taliban's spokesman, Zahibullah Mujahid, refuses to denounce "international terrorism," much less acknowledge any willingness to sever links with al Qaeda. Second, he insists that the US adhere to the "confidence building measures" of both releasing "Guantanamo prisoners," ostensibly to include al Qaeda-linked Taliban detainees, and also removing any or all such leaders from the UN sanctions list and the US bounty list. And third, both the interviewer and the interviewee appear to have avoided the issue of al Qaeda altogether.

Regarding international terrorism

Q. Is it possible for the Taliban to renounce international terrorism in one of its written statements as per the American demand?

A. All praise is due to Allah and may his peace and blessings be upon his chosen servant.

To proceed, I must first and foremost say that we do not work according to the guidelines of America or any other country but all of our decisions are based on Islamic principles while giving consideration to our national interests however based on mutual respect, we do believe in reaching an understanding with all the countries of the world.

Now, regarding the issue of terrorism:

If America and its allies consider the current Jihad and struggle in Afghanistan against the eradication of the occupation and its continuation until all foreign troops leave and an Islamic government is established as terrorism, then we cannot shun this as it would be an un-Islamic act because we consider this Jihad and struggle as our Islamic obligation, the shunning of which is not possible in any circumstance. However, as we continue with this obligation (Jihad and struggle) we are religiously held responsible in preventing civilian casualties.

Note how Mujahid dodges this issue. According to the Taliban's version of the interview, CNN did not ask him to specifically denounce al Qaeda, but an undefined "international terrorism." Mujhahid couldn't even bring himself to denounce that.

Releasing Guantanamo detainees and removing leaders from sanctions and bounty lists

Q. If those Taliban that are being held in Guantanamo are not released, will your negotiations with the Americans still continue?

A. Negotiations have not yet began with the Americans so talking about it continuing does not mean much. Now the question is, when will negotiations begin? I must say that before any negotiations can take place, confidence building measures must first succeed so an atmosphere can be created for negotiations and this confidence building measure rests entirely with the Americans and they must take steps for it which are; exchange of Guantanamo prisoners, the opening of a political office and the termination of the black list of the United Nations as well as the bounty lists of America and her allies.

Mujahid is saying that while the Taliban will not make any concessions, such as renouncing the ill-defined "international terrorism," it still demands the US free some of the most dangerous Taliban leaders from custody. Keep in mind that these Taliban leaders are the ones who are responsible for forging close ties to al Qaeda, as Thomas Joscelyn pointed out long ago and again more recently.

The US will likely release these Guantanamo detainees while the UN may remove some Taliban leaders from its sanctions list of global terrorists. It is unclear what response the US might be to the additional request for the removal of Taliban leaders from sanctions and bounty lists, but conceivably further concessions could be granted in those areas as well. The office in Qatar has already been established.

Even if you believe that the Taliban are negotiating in good faith and will eventually renounce al Qaeda (and we don't), the US is sabotaging its negotiating position by conceding the Taliban's major points at the outset while getting nothing in return.

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February 14, 2012 6:21 PM
By Bill Roggio

The News reports that in addition to ordering an end to attacks against the Pakistani security forces, the Shura-e-Murakeba also ordered an end to kidnappings and said all prisoners must be freed by March 1:

The Taliban joint council issued a leaflet in which the kidnappers were directed to release whoever was in their custody before the expiry of the deadline. The Taliban said there would be general amnesty for all those involved in kidnapping for ransom if they released their captives before March 1.

"After expiry of the deadline, if we found someone having anyone in their possession, the Shura-e-Muraqeba would have the right to take action under the Shariah law against the kidnappers," the statement warned.

Additionally, hundreds of Taliban fighters appeared in Miramshah's main bazaar:

Meanwhile, tribal sources from Miramshah, the headquarters of North Waziristan, said hundreds of armed Taliban militants on Sunday came on the streets and patrolled different roads of the area to show their strength.

The Taliban told local tribesmen in Miramshah bazaar that they were there for the protection of the tribal people and would take stern action against those involved in kidnapping for ransom and car lifting.

Keep in mind that the Pakistani Army has a garrison based in Miramshah, right next to the bazaar. The Pakistani military rarely venture off their base, as the Taliban run the show there.

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February 13, 2012 9:27 PM
By Bill Roggio

Today Shabaab held large rallies in several cities outside of Mogadishu to celebrate the Somali terror group's merger with al Qaeda. Shabaab claims that thousands of people attended the rallies, and provided pictures to back that up [see images above and below, courtesy of the SITE Intelligence Group]. Shabaab's military forces also paraded through the cities and held formations.

A portion of the translation of Shabaab's statement, also provided by the SITE Intelligence Group, appears below:

Tens of thousands of Muslims came out today in various areas of Islamic Lower Shabelle province to welcome the allegiance of the Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement to Qaedat al-Jihad Organization under the command of Sheikh Doctor Ayman al-Zawahiri, may Allah preserve him. In 'Almadha Square in Lafole district of the province, a number of the movement's commanders and tribal leaders spoke to the crowd gathered in the square. Among the speakers was the governor of Islamic Banaadir province, Sheikh Muhammad Abu Abdul Rahman, and the official spokesman of the Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement, Sheikh Ali Dheere. The demonstrators carried banners expressing their support and happiness for the allegiance, and cheered words that confirmed their pride and happiness for the joining with Qaedat al-Jihad.

The African Union has been keen on touting Shabaab's defeat after the terror group largely withdrew from the capital late last summer. But Shabaab is still able to project its power into the capital with suicide bombings, IED attacks, assassinations, and occasional small-scale military attacks, while remaining in control of much of central and southern Somalia. As today's celebrations show, the African Union, Kenya, and Ethiopia have a long way to go before Shabaab no longer holds sway in much of the war-torn country.

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February 13, 2012 12:55 PM
By Bill Roggio

Images of the three "spies" executed by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Image from the SITE Intelligence Group.

Ansar al Sharia, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's political front, has released a videotape of the confessions of three Yemenis who were accused of spying for the US and placing tracking chips on vehicles that resulted in the deaths of 10 AQAP fighters in US-led airstrikes. The video, along with an accompanying statement by AQAP on the charges against the men and others also accused of spying for the US and Saudi intelligence, was translated by the SITE Intelligence Group.

The three men who confessed were reported yesterday to have been beheaded.

Below is a sample of AQAP/Ansar al Sharia's "charges" against one of the slain spies:

The accused, 'Abu Abdul Rahman al-Maribi Salih Ahmed Salih al-Jamili' admitted in front of the judicial committee to the accusations directed at him, and he received his just punishment. The following people are wanted for justice in this case: the one named Ali bin Saeed bin Ma'ili, the one named Ma'id bin Nasser bin Qamad, and the one named Khamis al-Mashi'i, for their participation in recruiting the one named Abu Abdul Rahman Salih Ahmed Salih al-Jamili and aiding him with money, techniques, and constant contact with the command center that is directing the American air force through the national security.

For more information on Ansar al Sharia, see LWJ report, US 'drones' kill 15 al Qaeda fighters in southern Yemen.

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February 9, 2012 4:33 PM
By CJ Radin

Iran is Hezbollah's principal supporter and financier in Lebanon. Israel is one of Hezbollah's main adversaries. So it should have come as no surprise when, in November 2011, the leader of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, announced that Hezbollah would support Iran if it were attacked by Israel , as reported by The Daily Star in Lebanon:

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah warned the United States and Israel Friday that any war on Iran or Syria will engulf the entire region, in a clear signal that his party will join the fight against the Jewish state by opening the south Lebanon front which has been dormant since the devastating 2006 conflict .

However, a surprise did come the other day when Nasrallah recanted his earlier announcement. While couched in diplomatic language, the meaning is clear: Hezbollah no longer intends to support Iran if Israel attacks it. According to Asharq Alawsat:

"There is speculation about what wound happen if Israel bombed Iran's nuclear facilities," Nasrallah said. "I tell you that the Iranian leadership will not ask Hezbollah to do anything. On that day, we will sit, think and decide what we will do."

Given the relationship between Iran and Hezbollah, it is interesting to speculate why Nasrallah would flipflop on this issue. (Perhaps because an Israeli attack on Iran would be a fait accompli; or because such an attack would not change the facts on the ground?) Another good question is why Nasrallah picked now to make his announcement. (International sanctions implemented over the last several months have demonstrated that much of the world has aligned against Iran's nuclear program; if Israel attacked Iran, escalating the crisis further would make Hezbollah's position vis-a-vis the rest of the world significantly worse? Also, is Hezbollah concerned about the deteriorating situation in Syria, its local benefactor?)

But an even more interesting question is why Nasrallah announced Hezbollah's intentions on this matter publicly. How does a public announcement that Hezbollah no longer intends to support Iran serve Hezbollah's interests?

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February 8, 2012 5:17 PM
By Bill Roggio

Reuters reported today that Abu Talha, a senior al Qaeda in Iraq leader who had served as a key commander for Abu Musab al Zarqawi, was among 14 terrorists and criminals who were executed on Tuesday:

"The Justice Ministry executed 14 Iraqis - terrorists and criminals - in Baghdad on Tuesday," a senior Justice Ministry official told Reuters on Wednesday.

They included Abu Talha who headed an al Qaeda affiliate, Islamic State of Iraq, in the northern city of Mosul and the provinces of Anbar and Salahuddin, the official said on condition of anonymity.

Abu Talha's real name was Muhammad Khalaf Shakar. In addition to being a senior member of al Qaeda in Iraq, he also was a commander in Ansar al Islam. Before he was captured by US special operations forces in June 2005, he was considered to be a potential successor to Zarqawi.

At the time of Abu Talha's arrest, CENTCOM said that he had "never stayed more than one night at any one residence, and always wore a suicide vest, saying he would never surrender."

Iraq seems intent on killing off those top leaders of al Qaeda in Iraq who are currently in custody. Today, Aswat al Iraq reported that an unnamed Saudi al Qaeda operative "with the initials BA" has been sentenced to death:

A leading al-Qaeda Commander, of Saudi nationality and holding the post of Military Emir (Prince) of al-Qaeda in northern Iraq's city of Mosul, has been sentenced to death by the Central Iraqi Criminal Court, according to a statement from within the High Judicial Council on Wednesday. "The defendant, with the initials BA, who had occupied the post of the Military Emir (Prince) of the Right Side of Mosul in 2008, during the leadership of the former al-Qaeda Commander Abu-Musaab al-Zarqawi, was sentenced for execution by the High Judcial Criminal Court," the statement, as was received by Aswat al-Iraq news agency, stressed. The statement pointed out that the defendant had confessed to having contributed to the Falluja battle in west Iraq, during which he lost one of his legs and was sentenced for 15 years imprisonment; at the time he gave a false name, claiming to be an Iraqi and confessed to having carried out terrorist acts, aimed at deteriorating the security situation in the country.

Although the initials do not match, it is possible that the al Qaeda leader to be executed is Ibrahim Ahmad Umar Nasir al Sabawi, who was identified as al Qaeda's emir of eastern Mosul when he was captured by the US military in 2008. Sabawi's nationality was not given, however. Another Saudi, Abu Yasir al Saudi, served as al Qaeda's emir for southeastern Mosul before he was killed in an airstrike by US forces in 2008.

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February 8, 2012 11:32 AM
By Bill Roggio

A Shabaab suicide bomber killed nine Somalis today in an attack outside a hotel in Mogadishu. From Reuters:

A suicide car bomber killed at least nine people Wednesday near a hotel where lawmakers often gather in the Somali capital Mogadishu, police said.

Police officer Hassan Ali told Reuters the attacker rammed his vehicle into a cafe by the Hotel Muna, which was also stormed by al Shabaab militants in August 2010 in an attack that killed more than 30 people.

"So far we have carried nine dead civilians and 34 others injured. Up to now we have not seen casualties of any legislators. The death toll may rise," said Ali.

Police and the spokesman for African Union troops in Somalia said initial reports showed that the attacker first opened fire on people sitting near the hotel before detonating the car.

The Aug. 24, 2010 suicide assault on the Hotel Muna was a particularly brazen effort by Shabaab, and was one of several in which Shabaab used a complex attack to target Somali officials. Shabaab has emulated the tactics of other al Qaeda affiliates and allies, including al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, al Qaeda in Iraq, and the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban.

Shabaab has carried out more than 30 major suicide attacks in Somalia since September 2006, when its predecessor, the Islamic Courts Union, usurped control of the government (the Islamic Courts was ousted from power in an invasion by Ethiopian forces in December 2006). Several of the attacks have been carried out by American and British citizens who had left their home countries to join Shabaab.

Shabaab has also executed one suicide attack outside Somalia. A double suicide bombing on July 11, 2010 in Kampala, Uganda, killed 74 people. The suicide cell that carried out the attack, the Saleh ali Nabhan Brigade, is named after the al Qaeda leader who served as Shabaab's military commander before he was killed in a US special operations raid in September 2009.

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February 7, 2012 10:05 PM
By Wes Bruer

Today the Justice Department announced that Ahmed Hussein Mahamud, a 27-year-old man formerly from the Minneapolis area, has pled guilty to conspiring to provide money and recruiting personnel for Shabaab, the al Qaeda-linked terror group in Somalia. Mahamud's conviction is the latest in an ongoing three-year investigation into links between Shabaab and the Somali-American community based in and around Minneapolis. From 2008 to February 2011, Mahamud, who was indicted on June 7, 2011, conspired to provide material support to Shabaab in aid of its fight against Somalia's Transitional Federal Government.

From the DOJ press release:

The defendant also admitted that he and his co-conspirators raised money from the Somali-American community in Minnesota under false pretenses to pay for men in Minnesota to travel to Somalia to join al Shabaab. Specifically, the defendant and his co-conspirators claimed the money raised would be used for a local mosque or to help orphans in Somalia. In fact, the money collected was used to purchase airline tickets and to pay other expenses so men could travel from Minnesota to Somalia to join al-Shabaab. Further, Mahamud admittedly sent money via wire transfers to a co-conspirator in Somalia, knowing the money would be used to purchase weapons or otherwise support al-Shabaab.

The DoJ went on to outline the investigation into those implicated in activities supporting Shabaab. Since September 2007, around 20 men have left the Minneapolis area and traveled to Somalia, where they have trained with the terror group and, in numerous cases, joined it. One of the men, Cabdulaahi Ahmed Faarax, was recently identified by The Long War Journal in a picture that was taken with Omar Hammami, a US-born Shabaab military commander who is on the US's list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists. Given the suspicious circumstances of the men's disappearance, an FBI investigation was opened into the men's activities. The investigation has unraveled a web of Shabaab sympathizers willing to send money to the group.

Mahamud is one of seven who have pled guilty to terror-related charges in the FBI's investigation. Eight more are still at large, and are believed to be in Somalia supporting Shabaab. Two of the men under investigation have been killed fighting government forces in Somalia.

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February 6, 2012 8:03 PM
By Wes Bruer

The People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad, or Boko Haram, as the group is infamously known to the international community, has escalated its war on the Nigerian government in recent months, with devastating effects. In January alone, the terror group's attacks claimed over 250 lives, already more than half the number of deaths inflicted by its attacks in all of 2011. With a history of sectarian violence and recent bouts of civil unrest, Nigeria is at risk of descending into civil war as it faces an Islamic insurgency that is emerging as one the deadliest in the world.

Maiduguri, located in northeast Nigeria's Muslim-dominated Borno state, is the birthplace of Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad (Boko Haram's official nom de guerre). Founded in 2002 by influential Muslim cleric Mohammad Yusuf, the group evolved from the leader's mosque and madrassa members to a nationwide threat aimed at establishing sharia law throughout Africa's most populous nation. And despite the arrest and summary killing of Yusuf by security forces in 2009, the group has redoubled its efforts to destabilize the government of President Goodluck Jonathan.

After Yusuf's death, the deputy leader of Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau, took the reins. Shekau has capitalized on the growing popular discontent with the government's handling of economic woes, now coupled with its inability to prevent the group's increasingly brazen terror attacks. Boko Haram punctuated its threat on Jan. 22 when gunmen and suicide bombers coordinated attacks on government and police buildings in Kano, leaving 185 dead. The attack followed a string of bombings on Christmas Day last year that killed 35 people. The country has also been plagued by numerous other bombings and attacks by gunmen during the previous months since Shekau's promotion to emir.

History shows that violence in Africa has rarely raised eyebrows in the West, but the increasing influence of radical Islam in Nigeria is putting the international community on edge. One point of particular concern is a UN report showing Boko Haram's ties with al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The report outlines the arrest of seven Boko Haram members who were traveling through Niger to Mali, in possession of contact information for known al Qaeda members. Although coordination between Boko Haram and AQIM may still be only in the early stages, any communication between the terror groups spells trouble for Africa and may help explain the recent increase in violence in Nigeria.

While Boko Haram and al Qaeda-aligned groups share the same general goals, Boko Haram has characteristics that are particularly worrisome. Instead of aspiring to attack globally, Nigeria's Islamic threat has a concentrated scope of attack that does not stray beyond the country's borders. The group's enemy has been clearly identified as the security and government forces of President Goodluck Jonathan, and as it stands, they seem capable of being defeated. And although Boko Haram has not sworn allegiance to al Qaeda, the terror franchise has a vested interest in seeing Nigeria fail as a state and become a terror safe haven à la Shabaab in Somalia. If that were to happen, Nigeria's geographic position would render all of North Africa susceptible to Islamic insurgencies itching to battle ill-equipped governments.

Alarmed by the rise in Islamic terrorism in Nigeria, the governments of the US, Britain, and Israel have all expressed willingness to assist Jonathan's government and security forces with counterterrorism measures. But international assistance must be timely and calculated. The US is all too familiar with the results of showering corrupt administrations with financial aid, especially with administrations similar to Nigeria's current government, which admittedly has extremist sympathizers within its cabinet. Nigeria is clearly at a tipping point. The prospect of Boko Haram marginalizing the government, creating a security vacuum, and filling it, grows more possible with each attack.

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February 5, 2012 11:22 PM
By Bill Roggio

Recently I stumbled across these two US diplomatic cables from the 1990s that discuss meetings between diplomatic personnel in Pakistan and Taliban representatives. In its current attempts to negotiate with the Taliban to resolve the Afghan conflict, the US should remember that the Taliban have always been duplicitous about their relationship with al Qaeda.

In the first cable [excerpted below], from 1996, US officials described talks with Mullah Abdul Jalil, the Taliban's deputy foreign affairs advisor. During the meeting, Jalil claimed that his government was not aware of Osama bin Laden's location, vowed to ensure that al Qaeda camps would be shut, and promised that no safe haven would be given to the terror group. "Jalil made all the right sounds concerning terrorism," the cable ends optimistically.

In the second cable [also excerpted below], from 1997, US officials met with Maulavi Abdullah Hamad, the Taliban's Consular General in Karachi, and Hafizullah Safi. During the conversation, the latter described bin Laden as a "good mujahid" and said "he remained in Afghanistan on the understanding that he avoid any involvement in terrorism directed against the West or Saudi Arabia." The US officials also urged the Taliban to not destroy the Buddhist monuments in Bamiyan.

So, to be clear here, in 1996, Taliban officials told US officials that bin Laden was not sheltering in their areas and that he would not be given safe haven to attack the West or Saudi Arabia. One year later, the Taliban admitted they were sheltering bin Laden, the "good mujahid." We all know the rest of the story. Bin Laden held press conferences vowing to attack the West. And Afghanistan was used as a base by al Qaeda to attack the West and Saudi Arabia multiple times, culminating in the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the US.

Cable #1: 1996: Taliban deny Osama bin Laden is in their territory

4. (C) JALIL CLAIMED THAT ALL OF THE "ARABS" BEING TRAINED IN THESE CAMPS HAVE FLED TO AREAS CONTROLLED BY THE KABUL REGIME. ASKED ABOUT THE WHEREABOUTS OF SAUDI FINANCIER OSAMA BIN LADEN, HE RESPONDED THAT HE DID NOT KNOW, BUT HE WAS NOT IN AREAS CONTROLLED BY THE TALIBAN.

5. (C) POLOFF AND AARMA URGED JALIL TO ENSURE THAT THE TALIBAN TAKES MEASURES TO ENSURE THAT THESE CAMPS ARE NOT REACTIVATED AND THAT NO FORM OF "SAFE HAVEN" IS EXTENDED TO TERRORISTS. IN ADDITION, POLOFF AND AARMA EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS IMPORTANT THAT THE TALIBAN PUT OUT THE WORD THAT OSAMA BIN LADEN'S PRESENCE IN AFGHANISTAN IS NOT WANTED. JALIL REPLIED THAT THE TALIBAN DID NOT SUPPORT TERRORISM IN ANY FORM AND WOULD NOT PROVIDE REFUGE TO OSAMA BIN LADEN.

6. (C) SEPTEMBER 19 PAKISTANI PRESS REPORTS STATE THAT "AS MANY AS 107 PAKISTANIS WHO WERE RECEIVING MILITARY TRAINING AT TWO CAMPS IN AFGHANISTAN'S KHOST PROVINCE WERE CAUGHT ON THE PAKISTAN-AFGHAN BORDER WHILE RETURNING HOME AFTER THE SEIZURE OF THEIR CAMPS BY THE TALIBAN." ACCORDING TO THE ARTICLES, THE GOP BORDER FORCES TOOK THOSE ARRESTED TO DERA ISMAIL KHAN PRISON IN NORTH WAZIRSTAN AGENCY.

7. (C) COMMENT: JALIL MADE ALL THE RIGHT SOUNDS CONCERNING TERRORISM, AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE COUNTERTERRORISM POINTS HOME IN DISCUSSIONS WITH THE TALIBAN. WE HAVE NO INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION OF THE PAKISTANI PRESS REPORTS CITED IN PARA FIVE, BUT INTERIOR MINISTER BABAR TOLD THE DCM ON SEPTEMBER 12 THAT HE HAD ISSUED AN ORDER TO GOP BORDER FORCES TO ARREST TERRORISTS IF THEY TRIED TO ENTER PAKISTAN (REFTEL).

Cable #2: 1997: US and Taliban consuls general meet in Karachi

4. (C) CONSUL GENERAL ALSO ASKED ABOUT "THAT SAUDI PRINCE," WHO WAS IMMEDIATELY IDENTIFIED AS OSAMA BIN LADEN. SAFI LAUNCHED INTO AN EXPLANATION OF BIN LADEN'S PRESENCE IN TALIBAN TERRITORY WHICH TOOK THE STANDARD LINE: BIN LADEN HAD BEEN A GOOD MUJAHID FOR A DOZEN OR MORE YEARS. HE REMAINED IN AFGHANISTAN ON THE UNDERSTANDING THAT HE AVOID ANY INVOLVEMENT IN TERRORISM DIRECTED AGAINST THE WEST OR SAUDI ARABIA.

5. (C) WE ASKED IF HE HAD VIEWED THE PETER ARNETT CNN INTERVIEW WITH BIN LADEN. HE CLAIMED NO KNOWLEDGE OF THE INTERVIEW AND ASKED FOR A SUMMARY. CONSUL GENERAL EXPLAINED THAT BIN LADEN HAD VOWED ACTION AGAINST AMERICAN SOLDIERS IN SAUDI ARABIA. HE INVITED SAFI TO COME TO TEA AT JOHNSON HOUSE TO VIEW THE TAPE. SAFI UNDERTOOK TO DO SO, WE THINK.

6. (C) COMMENT: NOT ALL THAT MUCH SUBSTANCE THERE, OR PERHAPS MUCH REALITY BUT WHAT SEEMS CLEAR IS THAT THE TALIBAN ARE GETTING OUR MESSAGES. WE SUSPECT THAT THEIR COMMUNICATIONS WITH KANDAHAR ARE NOT THAT PERFECT BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE TELLING ONE ANOTHER WHAT U.S. CONCERNS ARE. WE ARE IN THE CULTIVATING MODE WITH THESE PEOPLE, WHOM WE MEET ONLY FLEETINGLY. WE HAD LUCK IN GETTING SAFI OVER TO HEAR OUR PITCH ON PRESERVING THE BUDDHIST MONUMENTS AT BAMIYAN. WE'LL TRY TO GET HIM TO FOLLOW THROUGH ON THE ARNETT TAPE.

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February 4, 2012 12:56 PM
By CJ Radin

On Wednesday, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta announced that the US would end combat operations in Afghanistan in "mid to late 2013." The US forces would then switch to an advise and assist role, and the final withdrawal would occur by the end of 2014. CTV reported:

The United States and its NATO partners will end their combat roles in Afghanistan in 2013 -- a year earlier than previously announced.

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said that American troops will remain in the country through 2014, but only in a supporting role.

This switch to training and advising Afghan forces will occur in mid- to late-2013, Panetta told reporters in Brussels.

This announcement seems to have come as a surprise to many parties, Reuters noted:

Panetta surprised allies on Wednesday by suggesting the US combat mission in Afghanistan would end in 2013, the first time Washington had floated such a deadline.

Should it have surprised the US's allies? Was this really a change in plan?

No change in plan

Secretary Panetta's announcement corresponds to the same plan that US allies and the Karzai Government in Afghanistan agreed to over a year ago.

In September 2010, former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced that the US would conduct combat operations in Afghanistan for only "two or three more years" before transitioning to an advise and assist role, the Wall Street Journal reported:

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he envisions two or three more years of combat operations in Afghanistan before the U.S. transitions to an advisory role, a mission likely to last years more.

Pulling out combat forces in three years would ensure that the allied presence has transitioned to a training mission by the time British troops are due to withdraw in 2015. It would also meet Afghan President Hamid Karzai's goal of having his own army take responsibility for security by 2014.

At the NATO summit in Lisbon in November 2010, NATO and Afghan President Karzai agreed to the withdrawal date of the end of 2014.

The members met with President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai regarding the group's operations in the country. They agreed to gradually withdraw combat forces from the country with a completion date of 2014.

In other words, Gates announced more than a year ago that the US would end combat operations sometime between late 2012 and late 2013. This is consistent with Panetta's announcement that combat operations would end in "mid to late 2013."

Gates also said back in September 2010 that the US would follow the same withdrawal schedule as it did in Iraq, the Wall Street Journal reported at the time:

Mr. Gates sketched a process much like that in Iraq, where the U.S. formally ended combat operations this week, rebranding its forces as advisory brigades.

This part also has not changed. For Iraq, the last US forces left in December 2011. However, the US had ended combat operations 16 months earlier, in August 2010, at which point US forces transitioned to an advise and assist role.

For Afghanistan, the US plans to leave by the end of 2014. Following the same schedule as in Iraq, the US should then end combat operations 16 months earlier, by August 2013, and transition to an advise and assist role. Again, this corresponds to Secretary Panetta's statement that combat operations would end in "mid to late 2013" and the US would transition to an advise and assist role.

To sum up, the timetable announced by Panetta on Wednesday does not deviate from that announced by Gates in September 2010 and adopted by NATO in the strategic agreement of November 2010.

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February 2, 2012 6:00 PM
By Bill Roggio

According to Xinhua, which cites local Pakistani news channels, US drones struck yesterday in Pakistan's Arakzai tribal agency, killing 13 "militants," including six "foreigners":

At least 13 people were killed when a U.S. drone launched three missile strikes in Orakzai region of Pakistan's northwest tribal belt on Wednesday, local media reported.

According to the report by local TV channel Geo, the attack was launched in wee hours in the morning when a U.S. drone fired three missiles at a militants'hideout in Darand Shekhan area of upper Orakzai agency, a militancy-hit tribal area where Pakistan army has been battling local and foreign Taliban militants for the past four months.

The report said that six foreigners were also among the killed militants and the dead bodies have been shifted to other areas of Orakzai after the drone attack.

This was picked up by some small news outlets, such as Khyber News. But none of the major Pakistani news outlets, or the wire services, have reported on an Arakzai strike. Local Pakistani officials, who are often quick to claim drone strikes have taken place (and who have been accurate in the past on said strikes), denied that drones struck in Arakzai.

Pakistani news outlets instead have said that Pakistani Air Force jets targeted Taliban hideouts in Arakzai. Here is a report from Daily Times:

At least 20 terrorists were killed as fighter jets pounded Taliban hideouts in Orakzai Agency on Wednesday, military sources said. The air strikes came a day after terrorists attacked a security checkpost in Jogi Heights in Mamozai region of Kurram Agency in which eight soldiers were killed. "Jets have targeted the hideouts of Taliban commander Mullah Toofan and commander Moheyuddin, ground intelligence reported at least 20 Taliban were killed in the blitz," military sources told Daily Times. Sources added that four compounds of the Taliban had been hit in the air strike. They added that some reports suggested that commander Moheyuddin could have been killed in the bombing. However, there was no independent confirmation of the commander's death. Considering the strategic location of the region, terrorists have been putting up stiff resistance to the military operation. This has also given the Taliban upper hand since they have cut off road links to Kurram Agency. Sources did not say how effective the operation was in weakening the terrorists so that ground troops could move in.

It certainly is possible that US drones conducted an attack in Arakzai yesterday and the major media outlets missed it, but it is unlikely. Of the 305 strikes that have taken place since 2004, only one hit a target in Arakzai, and just 11 others hit targets outside of North and South Waziristan. A strike in Arakzai would be hard for the media to miss.

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