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Click map for full view. Taliban presence, by district and tribal agency, in the Swat region. Information on Taliban presence obtained from open source and derived by The Long War Journal based on the presence of Taliban shadow governments, levels of fighting, and reports from the region. Map created by Bill Raymond for The Long War Journal. Last updated: May 12, 2009. |
Heavy fighting has been reported in Pakistan’s northwest as the Taliban fighters put up stiff resistance to military advances in Swat, Dir, Buner, and Shangla.
The military continues to report high casualties among the Taliban; more than 175 Taliban fighters have been reported killed in the past two days. The latest figure put Taliban casualties at nearly 1,000 killed during 18 days of fighting. The military is also claiming that only 45 soldiers and other security personnel have been killed during the fighting.
US military and intelligence officials remain skeptical of the high casualty counts. “The Pakistani military says there have been no civilian casualties, but IDPs [internally displaced people] fleeing the area continue to tell stories of the military killing civilians during attacks on vehicles and artillery barrages on villages,” a military officer who is tracking the fighting in Pakistan told The Long War Journal. “I think the Pakistani military isn’t distinguishing between Taliban fighters and civilians.”
“If we’re to believe the Pakistani military, nearly one-fifth of the Taliban forces in Swat have been destroyed,” an intelligence official who is highly skeptical of the reports said. “Yet the Pakistani military is struggling to advance on Mingora [the main town in Swat which is under Taliban control]. It doesn’t add up.”
Pakistani forces have been unable to break the Taliban siege of an outpost in Mingora. Security forces have been holed up for eleven days as the military has been unable to send reinforcements to relieve them.
The military claimed its forces have surrounded Mingora and are preparing for the final assault on the town. More than 200,000 people are thought to be trapped in Mingora. The Taliban are said to have built bunkers and fighting positions in the town in preparation.
The Pakistani military maintained that the Taliban are fleeing the battlefield in Swat after suffering heavy defeats. “We have confirmed reports that these Taliban terrorists after shaving off their beards and cutting their hair are fleeing from the area,” according to a press release from the Pakistani military.
The military also said it repelled a Taliban assault on a firebase in the town of Peochar, the headquarters of the Swat Taliban. Twenty-one Taliban fighters and eight troops were killed during the fight, Major General Athar Abbas said in a press briefing. Just two days ago, the military air-assaulted newly trained commandos from the Frontier Corps to establish a foothold in Peochar.
In Buner, the military claimed that 13 Taliban fighters, including a leader named Dawa Noor, were killed during the fighting. Noor is said to have facilitated the Taliban invasion of Buner, which sparked the recent battles.
The military said Buner is close to being freed of Taliban control. “Security forces would gain complete control over Sultanwas in 48 hours and Pir Baba would also be cleansed of terrorists soon,” according to a report in Dawn.
In Shangla, the military claimed 15 Taliban “hideouts and strongholds” were destroyed and three Taliban fighters were killed. Meanwhile, the military is continuing to launch artillery attacks against Taliban hideouts in Dir, a district it claimed was purged of the Taliban after the first day of fighting.
As the fighting intensifies in Swat, Dir, Buner, and Shangla, Pakistani officials are making conflicting statements about the length of the operation.
Tasnim Ahmad Qureshi, the Minister of State for Interior, claimed the operation would be successfully completed within one month. But Ahmad Mukhtar, the Minister for Defence, said there is no time limit for the operation. “The army is clearing the areas gradually and no timeframe could be given in this regard,” he told The Associated Press of Pakistan.
More than 15,000 Pakistani troops are battling an estimated 5,000 Taliban fighters in the northwest. More troops are said to be moving into the theater to block the Taliban from melting away to other districts. But the military has fewer troops in the theater than it had prior to December 2008, when it redeployed forces to the Indian border after the Mumbai assault had raised tensions between Pakistani and India. The number of troops currently deployed in the northwest is inadequate to conduct an effective counterinsurgency program.
Background on the Malakand Accord and fighting in Swat
The government signed the Malakand Accord with Taliban front man Sufi Mohammed, Fazlullah’s father-in-law, on February 16 after two years of fighting that put the Taliban in control of the district. During those two years, the military was defeated three separate times while attempting to wrest control from the Taliban. Each defeat put the Taliban in greater control of the district.
The peace agreement called for the end of military operations in Swat, the end of Taliban operations, and the imposition of sharia, or Islamic law, in the districts of Malakand, Swat, Shangla, Buner, Dir, Chitral, and Kohistan. This region encompasses nearly one-third of the Northwest Frontier Province.
But the Taliban violated the agreement immediately after signing it, and proceeded to attack security forces and conduct armed patrols. The military remained silent while the government approved the Taliban’s demand for sharia throughout Malakand.
The government ordered a military offensive in Dir and Buner after enormous pressure from the US and other Western governments to stem the Taliban tide pushing toward central Pakistan. The Taliban advanced from Swat into Buner in early April and took over the district in eight days. The move into Buner has put the Taliban within 60 miles of Islamabad and close to several nuclear facilities and the vital Tarbela Dam. The Taliban also have moved into Mansehra and established bases and a training camp in the region.
Pakistani government and military officials have dismissed the Taliban threat to Islamabad and the country’s nuclear facilities, but at the end of April, the local Islamabad government ordered troops to deploy in the Margala hills just north of the city to block a Taliban advance, while the Haripur government beefed up security at the Tarbela Dam.
14 Comments
These recent engagements seem heavier and more determined than previous reports over the past few years. Beyond that is is hard to tell if it is really true that the Pakistani Army is heavy handedly crushing civilians and Taliban alike or putting on the kind of false offensive they appeared to conduct in the past. My guess is that the government has generally gotten more serious since the Taliban got close to Islamabad, but they still don’t seem to have a coherent and effective strategy. Under siege one place, claiming they have surrounded another…it feels incoherent.
Lorenz: I agree that it seems a lot of Pakistans claims of enemy killed are a bit overly optimistic in many of these battles. I also wonder how many of the reported dead are actually civillians caught in the middle. However as reports of intensified fighting continue to come down the wire I wonder if the proximity to Islamabad has anything to do with the increased ferosity of the fighting. I guess as long their still fighting they havn’t lost yet but Pakistan hasn’t really gained any ground yet either. I think the taliban may yet have more tricks up their sleeve as this continues to drag out. with some of the recent attacks inside afgahnistan using teams of suicide bombers on governmental buildings as well as running gun battles on soft targets, does anyone else think these might actually serve as practice for a strategy that could be implemented inside Islamabad itself? Basicly attacking pakistan in the rear causing panic and confusion on the pakistani flank. Just a thought.
> Security forces have been holed up for eleven days [in the electrical grid station in Mingora] as the military has been unable to send reinforcements to relieve them.
I fear that this doesn’t ring true. Eleven days is a long time for ~46 soldiers to be besieged and under fire, without resupply of ammunition, food, and (possibly) water. Unless provisions were stockpiled–and that sort of pre-planning doesn’t seem to be the army’s strong point. Nor does it seem likely that the Taliban controlling the streets of Mingora would have permitted the entry of supply trucks, prior to this outbreak of fighting.
I hope it will not turn out that this force has already been overrun, or surrendered.
Deja vu. Again. Why is it that Pakistan seems to get “serious” about fighting the Taliban every time their Prez. is scheduled for a visit to the US to beg for alms? And the moment he is back, a new peace deal is struck because this time the taliban will really honour it, unlike the last gazillion times. My solution is simple – just recognize the areas under Taliban as no longer being Pakistani territory and label it as an independent country (Talibanistan) and encourage the media to follow suit (this does not mean the Taliban should be recognized as the legit. govt. – think Afghanistan before 9/11). Maybe watching their country shrink on CNN maps will get Pakistanis to really fight the Taliban. What we are seeing at present is a rerun of an old farce.
And of course it will be more intense. The Taliban have more men fighting each time around and in more densely populated areas, forcing the army to put up a bigger show to be convincing. I don’t think the intensity of the situation is any indicator of the genuineness of the army’s commitment to fight the Taliban. Its a result of the Talibans growth and strengthening.
Putting aside skepticism about the long term prospects of this operation, I don’t doubt that the Pakistani army is serious this time around. Perception of the Taliban among the Pakistani populous has quickly darkened over the last two years. Islamist extremists were initially successful in tapping into conservative religious themes, Pashtun & Pakistani nationalism, grievances against a corrupt Pakistani State, and grievances against the US, India, and the West. The Taliban could be idealized so long as one didn’t pay very close attention to their actions, and didn’t live under their ruthless hand. All the while these extremists have openly promoted their own violent and hateful agenda. An agenda they have ruthlessly executed is a dozen places across the Muslim world in the last two decades. This is an outgrowth of the same set of movements that killed tourists in Egypt, bombed grade schools and high-rise apartments in Russia, bombed the Indian parliament, and flew aircraft into buildings. They even expressed a disdain for history, bombing ancient Egyptian temples and Buddhist statues in Afghanistan. They had already killed tens of thousands of Muslims across the Islamic world as well, but that was strangely overlooked.
Somehow many Pakistani’s still expected things would be different for them. Many Muslims wanted the Taliban to be the leading edge of a conservative reform movement against both corruption within Muslim society and corrupting outside influences. The problem was, faith in the Talibans ideas had no basis in fact. The Taliban at its core was fueled by pure hate and ruthless ambitions toward power. It took a number of shocks for many Pakistanis to realize that the Taliban weren’t reformists but imposters.
The Pakistani Army was as susceptible to this as the general populous, perhaps more so. Hopefully, Pakistani’s find it in themselves to persevere through these difficult times, and avoid self-destruction. There’s a long way to go.
I would be very interested to learn his definition of ‘soon’. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
For those who are interested there is a map of the progress of operations in Swat at this link.
Dawn: ‘Mingora besieged, to be secured soon’
They really need to pull up their socks.
Just came across this CNN Video report out of SWAT,
Somehow they have video footage of Talib fighters.
At 00:53 they look like dead ringers for AQ shadow army.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=6cd_1242449300
Bill reported: The military claimed its forces have surrounded Mingora and are preparing for the final assault on the town.
As time wears on the Army continually has to keep backpedaling. From the daily ISPR press conference today.
That doesn’t sound like an organization on the cusp of launching an attempt to regain control of Mingora.
Geo TV: 47 more militants killed in operation: ISPR
Slowly the Pakistani military establishment tries to reset expectations.
Geo TV: Swat operation to be completed in 6 to 8 weeks: Defence Minister
During the last day someone has been very busy labeling things around Mongora on the wikimapia site. Apparently it is someone with a great deal of local knowledge.
My guess on where the village of Odigram was off by 2 km. It is not the same as Punjigram and is a little further up the road toward Mongora.
Odigram 34°45’13.65″N, 72°18’2.81″E
On the ‘Long War Journal”
From the latest reports it appears the Pakistani army has moved into the town of Matta 17km north of Mongora. The troops appear to have come from Shangla province through the Shangla Pass.
The army appears to have expanded it’s presence at Kanju and around the airport on the just north of Mongora across the Swat river. They may have linked up with the main body of troops coming in from the west.
Strong Taliban fighters, long time heavy fighting, maybe expand this area, and heavier fighting in future. We will continue to pay attention to long war journal.