(4)Suicide attack in Pakistan's northwest kills 25
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| Red agencies/ districts controlled by the Taliban; purple is defacto control; yellow is under threat |
A suicide bomber has struck again in the settled district of Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province. The latest attack occurred in the settled district of Charsadda at an election rally held by the Awami National Party, a Pahstun political party. Twenty-five Pakistani civilians have been reported killed and more than 35 have been wounded in the attack.
The suicide attack comes just days after the military halted operations in South Waziristan and the Taliban declared a cease-fire in the tribal regions and the settled district of Swat. It is unclear if the Taliban declared a cease-fire throughout the rest of the Northwest Frontier Province. The new Pakistani interior minister ordered the formation of a peace jirga, or committee, to negotiate with the Taliban. Siraj Haqqani, a Taliban leader wanted by the US military in Afghanistan, was among those involved in the talks.
This is the third major suicide bombing in Charsadda since April 2007. The prior two attacks were directed at former Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao. The Taliban targeted Sherpao while he was addressing his political party, the Pakistan People's Party (Sherpao Group) on April 28, 2007. More than 28 were killed in the suicide attack and scores more wounded, including Sherpao, his son who was a minister in the NWFP assembly, and several other lawmakers and security officials. Taliban commander Abdullah Mehsud was behind the assassination attempt. Abdullah was killed by Pakistani security forces in July 2007.
The last attack occurred Dec. 21, 2007 as Sherpao attended Eid services at a mosque in Charsadda. Sherpao survived the assassination attempt, but more than 50 Pakistanis were killed and 200 wounded in the blast. Sherpao's son and nephew were among the wounded.
Sherpao was one of the few Pakistani leaders willing to stand up to the Taliban. He advocated fighting the Taliban in the tribal areas and pushed for the July 2007 assault on the Lal Masjid, or Red Mosque, after policemen and soldiers were kidnapped by members of the Taliban mosque.
Elections are scheduled for Feb. 18, but the Pakistani government is pessimistic about the prospects of conducting polling in the Northwest Frontier Province. Only six of the 24 districts in the Northwest Frontier Province are considered to have a "normal" security situation to allow elections. "Four districts - Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Dera Ismail Khan and Lower Dir - had been declared 'very sensitive' while Peshawar, Mardan, Kohat, Karak, Upper Dir, Bunner, Mansehra, Battagram and Kohistan had been placed in 'sensitive' category," Dawn reported. "Only Nowshera, Swabi, Abbottabad, Haripur, Chitral and Malakand have been declared 'normal'." The assessment did not take into account for the security situation in the seven tribal agencies.
READER COMMENTS: "Suicide attack in Pakistan's northwest kills 25"
Posted by KW64 at February 9, 2008 3:20 PM ET:
This violation of the ceasefire to allow for talks should be sufficient to call off these ill-advised peace talks and be used to rally general political support to strike against those that threaten free political activity. How can any party supposedly championing democracy complain about that?
Posted by Neo at February 10, 2008 2:51 AM ET:
The latest round of peace offerings by the government gave me the same "here we go again" feeling that most others here seem to share. It does seem to reflect some inability within the government to see these extremists as their enemy, even though from the outside that seems rather obvious. Such sentiments seem to come from the fact that the government of Pakistan has a long relationship of working with and nurturing these Islamist groups and using them against Pakistan's enemies. It seems obvious that the Taliban doesn't share any of these sentiments and has no qualms about attacking Pakistan or their fellow Muslims.
There are a few complexities to this situation beyond just a new round of peace deals that aren't likely to hold. Within about a week is the Pakistani election and it doesn't look as if the Islamic parties will do as well as the last round. The Islamists benefited from the last election, this one looks likely to roll against them. People are tired of the mess. The Taliban is well aware that it has lost popularity. These attacks are signs that they may not take the election laying down and are going to intimidate opposing candidates and interfere with elections.
If the government of Pakistan has any savvy they should make a big stink about the Taliban breaking peace agreements and interfering with elections. This would be a good change from the general atmosphere of denial that seems to dilute any action against extremist groups.
The activities of the Taliban will take second priority to forming a coalition government of some sort after the elections. I'm sure the Taliban will attempt to take advantage of this fact. I'm not sure that their aggressiveness will endear them to the Pakistani public but Al Qaeda and the Taliban continue to think little of either popularity or democratic support. They take submission to Allah very seriously (or submission to their own aims at least) and prefer more direct means of rule.
If support for the Islamists can be undermined than small territorial losses might be tolerated. I still think that Pakistani troops will have to reengage soon though, to at least keep the Taliban at bay while the situation with government elections works it way through.
Posted by Marlin at February 10, 2008 11:15 AM ET:
Syed Saleem Shahzad has an interesting article today (1st of a 2 part series) where he too sees the current lull in fighting as only temporary. While he sees both the Pakistani Army and the terrorists needing a break, he is convinced the Americans will not allow it to stand (with which I agree).
Asia Times: Ceasefire: A lull before the storm
Posted by Neo at February 10, 2008 12:42 PM ET:
I think any decision on how to proceed is up in the air. Elections are in a week and no one is going do anything risky to antagonize voter sympathies. Hopefully, the political sides will come to terms on a coalition government in a reasonable time frame. At that point both Pakistan and the US will probably do a policy review (Not together).
Pakistan will probably have to engage in some limited military suppression against Taliban expansion in the territories after the vote. I wouldn't expect anything too decisive from a new coalition government. They will probably respond to events rather than push them. It will be the Taliban itself that will push the Pakistani government into action not the US.
I think we can expect still more of the reluctance to act, indecisiveness, and divided loyalties. It's part of the political and cultural landscape. It will be a coalition government with all the weaknesses that usually entails. I'm afraid it will take a few more rounds of bombings and assassinations to get everyone in the new government moving in one direction.
Don't let me convince you that I am a pessimist. Last fall I couldn't envision the various political parties cooperating. The shock of Bhutto's assassination makes a coalition government much more likely.