It looks like a SVBIED [suicide vehicle borne improvised explosive device - or suicide car bomb] heading westbound on Jalalabad road hit a Blackwater convoy heading eastbound towards Camp Phoenix. This happened right in front of Jubaili Brothers Generators – about ¾ of a mile from freedom circle. Walt and Yahya [two VSSA employees who investigate bombings in Kabul] made it out there but could not get close as the Blackwater and Army guys were a little jumpy.

I have been told that the vehicle hit was the ambassador’s truck – he was not in it at the time. And I cannot verify personally – there are no markings on the truck that would make it stand out from the other 5 black Suburbans. There is little doubt that the SVBIED – a white Toyota Corolla jumped the center mud strip and ran head on into the Blackwater vehicle – there is no way it could have come from behind without being engaged.

There are conflicting reports on the number of casualties in the attack, as the Associated Press reports of only wounded, although some "seriously." An American spokesman later reported no casualties except for the suicide bomber.

Map of Kabul, the number 26 on the map denotes the location of the US Embassy. Map courtesy of VSSA, click to view.

Mr. Lynch points out the suicide bombing was very likely well planned out, with a spotter identifying the ambassador's vehicle and communicating the information to the suicide bomber.

The timing would suggest more than one person is involved – the Kabul police have had success at catching these car bombs so they no longer cruise up and down Jalalabad road looking for targets of opportunity. We would bet that a spotter called from the vicinity of Freedom or Masood circle to alert the bomber of a convoy heading towards Jalalabad road. Again this would suggest that the SVBIED’s are coming out of Police District 9 area of operations – the other routes onto Jalalabad road require that one go through multiple checkpoints.

Unlike the suicide bombing outside of the Bagram base, which purportedly an assassination attempt on Vice President Cheney but was strictly a media event as the bomber never penetrated the outer ring of security, this attack was a bona fide assassination attempt. Mullah Dadullah, the Taliban's military commander in Afghanistan, claimed responsibility for today's suicide strike, and promised more.

The Kabul police shut down the suicide cells operating in Kabul last year. This is partially credited with the arrest of an Afghan general and a Pakistani intelligence officer who were planning, funding and operating the suicide cells. Al Qaeda and the Taliban have regenerated their network, and the Kabul police will be working to dismantle it once again.