Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have refrained from attacking Israel directly since the start of the war between Israel and Iran on June 13. However, there have been two unclaimed attacks on US interests in Iraq since Operation Rising Lion began, and the Iraqi groups have ramped up anti-Israeli and anti-American rhetoric, threatening US interests and mobilizing supporters through propaganda channels.
The Islamic Resistance of Iraq has carried out more than 180 such attacks against US forces in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan since October 7, 2023. The most recent attack risks drawing US forces into an offensive role in Israel’s war with Iran. Thus far, the US has attempted only to provide defensive support for Israel in the conflict.
Iran launched around 200 missiles and drones at Israel during the first day and a half of hostilities between the countries on June 13 and June 14. Around 10 Iranian ballistic missiles penetrated Israel’s air defenses and struck several areas in Tel Aviv and neighboring cities. Three Israelis were killed, and at least 63 were injured. Israel’s Home Front Command has responded to the Iranian attacks by sending numerous public alerts and deploying first responders and soldiers to the impact sites.
As Israel deepens its military campaign inside Iran, striking energy and defense infrastructure, Tehran has confirmed new casualties among high-level officials and cracked down on online dissent. The regime has threatened escalation across the region, while Israel has signaled solidarity with the Iranian people and claimed air superiority over Tehran.
Israel launched a sweeping campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and senior military leaders, with strikes reported at Natanz, Fordow, and across Tehran. Mossad-led covert operations neutralized key assets and personnel, while Iran vowed retaliation and also blamed the US for the assault.
Amid deadlocked nuclear talks, Iran’s military leadership issued new threats on June 4, vowing to confront the US and Israel with force. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials rejected Washington’s latest proposal as unacceptable, while Tehran repositioned air defenses around nuclear sites and warned of retaliation if Israel strikes unilaterally.
Recent statements by Islamic Republic officials indicate Tehran’s staunch commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and achieving “final victory.” These threats may signal a renewed escalation in the region after Israel’s crippling blow to Iran’s missile arsenal and the collapse of the Islamic Republic’s Syrian ally.
The Islamic Republic has accelerated its intelligence operations in Israel, with at least five spy rings uncovered in October alone. Between October 14 and 31, Israeli authorities arrested some 20 individuals who were operating on behalf of Iran. Led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence (MOI), Tehran’s multifaceted espionage strategy in Israel employs cyber warfare and direct human intelligence engagement.
Israel’s war cabinet has reportedly agreed on what Iranian targets to strike, so the question now is what method it will employ to carry out the attacks to effectively deter Tehran without escalating into a full-scale war. In doing so, Israel has two choices: to either publicly humiliate the regime or launch a series of covert attacks, and the latter is less likely to warrant Tehran’s retaliation.