Naim Qassem delivered two speeches last week to mark Quds Day that touched on similar themes, including Hezbollah’s alleged victory in the recent war with Israel. Qassem also vowed Hezbollah would not disarm and cryptically threatened to resume attacking Israel if Israeli operations in Lebanon continued.
The Israel Defense Forces conducted an airstrike in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut, the second in two weeks and since the November 27 ceasefire, that killed Hezbollah commander Hassan Badeer, his son (another Hezbollah member), and two others. Israel said Badeer was helping Hamas plan an imminent attack against Israeli civilians.
Israeli operations in Lebanon continued on a near-daily basis last week. On Friday, Israel struck in Dahiyeh, Beirut for the first time since the November 27 ceasefire, destroying a Hezbollah drone storage facility. Lebanese officials made equivocal statements on reining in Hezbollah.
Israel conducted a series of operations in Lebanon between March 18 and March 23, targeting Hezbollah personnel and assets. On Saturday, in response to rocket fire from Lebanon, Israel launched its most expansive series of attacks in Lebanon since the November 27 ceasefire went into effect.
Israel conducted several military operations in Lebanon between March 13 and 17, 2025. The operations targeted Hezbollah activity, operatives, and infrastructure. Hezbollah announced the deaths of five of its fighters last week without directly specifying the cause.
Israel conducted two sets of airstrikes in south Lebanon on March 11 that targeted Hezbollah operatives. The first targeted a senior Hezbollah aerial defense operative, whose fate remains unknown. The second set of strikes targeted Hezbollah members in south Lebanon. Hezbollah-affiliated media announced two of the group’s fighters were killed.
A review of the new Lebanese government’s policy statement reveals some positive changes from the positions of previous governments regarding the official posture on Hezbollah and its arms. Nevertheless, the statement contains subtle but significant loopholes that Hezbollah can exploit to ensure its survival and eventual regeneration.
A comparison of actions by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in Lebanon after the ceasefire on November 27, 2024, demonstrates that the Lebanese have not taken significant action against Hezbollah.
Israel assassinated Khodr Hashem, the commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force’s seaborn forces, in south Lebanon. Hashem was involved in armed activities and maritime weapons smuggling to Hezbollah before and after the November 27, 2024, Lebanon-Israel ceasefire agreement, activities which constituted a violation of the deal.
Lebanon seized $2.5 million in cash destined for Hezbollah carried by a man arriving from Turkey. This development follows Israeli accusations that Turkey is being used as a conduit for Iranian funds to reach Hezbollah and may be facilitating the transfers.
On February 20, Hamas released four caskets ostensibly carrying the remains of four Israeli hostages to the Red Cross, but one contained the body of a Palestinian woman. Israel has condemned this as a violation of the ceasefire that began in January. Separately, the IDF redeployed an experienced division that served in Gaza and carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah on the Syria-Lebanon border.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem delivered a speech on February 16 addressing regional and domestic developments, Beirut banning Iranian flights from landing at Hariri International Airport, and Nasrallah’s upcoming funeral. Qassem called for massive participation in the funeral to deter Hezbollah’s domestic political opponents from targeting the group or its weapons.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem gave a speech to mark the onset of the month of Shaban, in which he announced the date of Hassan Nasrallah’s funeral, sought to counter the group’s domestic detractors, and condemned provocative behaviors by Hezbollah’s supporters.
Israel faces continued threats in Lebanon despite the recent ceasefire, which approaches the important milestone of its first 60 days. On January 13, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out strikes on several Hezbollah targets, “including a rocket launcher site, a military site, and routes along the Syria-Lebanon border used to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah.” Israeli troops also continued searching for weapons and dismantling terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
Lebanon did not thoroughly inspect a Mahan Air Flight suspected of carrying funds for Hezbollah. It engaged in an act of theater to deny Israel justification to resume fighting the group in light of Beirut’s failure to implement its obligations under the November 27, 2024, ceasefire agreement.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) published data on the number of soldiers killed and wounded in 2024 and since the war began on October 7, 2023. A total of 363 IDF soldiers were killed in 2024, most of them during combat operations and in terrorist attacks. Overall, 891 servicemembers have died, most of them in combat, and 5,569 have been wounded since the conflict started last year.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue to search for and uncover Hezbollah munitions and terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon. IDF forces found weapons, explosives, and a tunnel in the fourth week of December. Israel is aiming to fulfill its mission against these threats before troops withdraw from southern Lebanon over the next three weeks in compliance with the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. Hezbollah has warned that it will respond to Israel if the ceasefire’s terms are violated.
Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz went to southern Lebanon on December 22 and vowed that Hezbollah would not be permitted to return to the border area. He met with the commanders of the IDF’s 91st Division and 188th Armored Brigade. The 188th has continued to uncover terrorist infrastructure and weapons in southern Lebanon.
In his first speech after Assad’s downfall, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem completely reversed the organization’s position on the Syrian dictator’s removal. Qassem extended an olive branch to groups that, the week prior, he described as takfiri agents of Israel. He also insisted Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon would remain unchanged.
The IDF’s 98th Division completed its mission in Lebanon after operating against Hezbollah for two months in October and November. The IDF said the division is preparing for its next mission in the Gaza Strip. Other Israeli units in southern Lebanon continue to uncover Hezbollah tunnels and munitions as the ceasefire continues between Israel and Lebanon.
Lebanon and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) cannot be counted upon to restrain Hezbollah. Beirut continues to demonstrate a lack of will to act against the group—and the more time that passes, the more difficult Hezbollah will become to rein in or disarm.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem gave two speeches after the November 27 ceasefire that discussed Hezbollah’s next steps. In his first, he didn’t mention Hezbollah’s withdrawal from south of the Litani River. However, he made an about-face in his second speech, perhaps under Israeli military pressure and due to the situation in Syria. Qassem also discussed cooperating with the Lebanese government to reconstruct areas damaged during the war.
Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz met with Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi on December 5 as the situation in Syria shifts rapidly. “The IDF monitors developments and is prepared for all scenarios, offensive and defensive alike. The IDF will not tolerate threats near the Lebanon-Syria border and will thwart any threat against the State of Israel,” the IDF said in a statement. It is the second high-level meeting Israel has had in the wake of the Syrian regime losing ground to opposition forces. At the same time, the IDF continues to operate in southern Lebanon.
Just a year ago, the Islamic Republic was on the offensive as it used its proxies to launch coordinated attacks on Israel from six fronts to demonstrate the extent of its regional influence. Now, the momentum has shifted. Israeli operations have severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, Syrian rebels backed by Turkey wage a relentless war against Assad, and the United States targets Iranian-backed militia bases across Syria.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out strikes against Hezbollah on December 2, five days after a ceasefire began on November 27. Hezbollah launched mortars toward Mount Dov in northern Israel. The IDF has carried out daily strikes on Hezbollah, including the group’s rocket launchers and vehicles, since the ceasefire, accusing the group of violating the terms of the agreement.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) eliminated an estimated 2,500 Hezbollah members during two months of fighting that ended with a ceasefire on November 27. The ceasefire has essentially held over the first five days despite accusations of violations, and IDF Home Front Command changed guidelines, enabling Israelis to return to normal activity in all areas of the country except near the border with Lebanon. The IDF continued to call on Lebanese civilians not to return to areas close to the border, and commanders said the Israeli military would enforce the ceasefire “forcefully.”
Israel agreed to a ceasefire on November 27 that ended the current fighting with Hezbollah. The agreement calls for Israel to conduct a phased withdrawal from southern Lebanon within the next 60 days. “The Government of Lebanon will prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups in the territory of Lebanon from carrying out any operations against Israel, and Israel will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets,” the ceasefire said. “The fundamental test of the ceasefire agreement taking shape along the Israel-Lebanon border will be in its full implementation, ensuring the security of all residents of the north of Israel,” Israeli President Isaac Herzog noted.
With Israel and Hamas having reached a ceasefire agreement, the rhetoric coming from Tehran is far from de-escalatory. Military and civilian officials within the Islamic Republic continue to underscore their commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and have reiterated threats of launching a third phase of the “True Promise” operation against Israel.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out several rounds of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Beirut on November 26 ahead of a possible ceasefire expected to take effect on November 27. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised Israelis that “we will achieve victory” and said the ceasefire would enable the IDF to “maintain full freedom of military action” if Hezbollah seeks to re-arm or return to threaten Israel near the border. Israeli units continued limited operations in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah launched numerous barrages of rockets at Israel on November 26 as reports in Israel indicated a possible ceasefire might be agreed to this week. The IDF focused its attacks on Hezbollah’s weapons smuggling networks that stretch into Syria and are backed by Iran. In addition, the IDF showed off some of the vehicles and Iranian weapons it has seized in Lebanon.