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Analysis: The ‘How’ over the ‘What:’ Israel’s dilemma beyond target selection in Iran
Israel’s war cabinet has reportedly agreed on what Iranian targets to strike, so the question now is what method it will employ to carry out the attacks to effectively deter Tehran without escalating into a full-scale war. In doing so, Israel has two choices: to either publicly humiliate the regime or launch a series of covert attacks, and the latter is less likely to warrant Tehran’s retaliation.
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Analysis: The lights are still blinking red—Sunni Islamists and Iran are determined to attack the homeland
While the United States is focused on the election, the domestic terrorism warning signs are still blinking red. Over the last few months, the Department of Justice has indicted another Islamic State terrorist and uncovered an Iranian assassination plot against former President Donald Trump.
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Israeli troops kill wanted Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar
Sinwar was the mastermind behind the October 7, 2023, assault on Israel and was perhaps the most wanted Hamas terrorist by Israel. A veteran of Hamas since the 1980s, Sinwar established the group’s security service and rose to lead Hamas in August 2024 after his predecessor was assassinated in Tehran, Iran.
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Analysis: ‘Axis of Resistance’ or ‘Axis of Espionage?’ Iran’s struggles to staff leadership
The appointment of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh as Hezbollah’s “supervisor” underscores the growing challenges faced by Iran and its proxies amid Israel’s military and intelligence operations. The inability to establish stable leadership within Hezbollah not only reflects Israel’s tactical successes but also reveals deep fractures within the Axis of Resistance. The heightened paranoia among Iranian leaders suggests a precarious future for the Islamic Republic’s efforts to maintain control over its oldest proxy.
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Analysis: The road to the Third Lebanon War
The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel that began on October 8, 2023, has evolved into a protracted war of attrition that neither side initially expected to last this long. Hezbollah’s goal was to support Gaza by diverting the Israelis’ attention and impacting their morale, but the group miscalculated Israel’s resolve, leading to an extended and more intense conflict.
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Israel eliminated Nasrallah’s successor
Israel announced that it killed Hashem Safieddine, the likely successor to Hezbollah’s longtime Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Safieddine was a veteran Hezbollah leader, and the group has suffered significant losses to its leadership cadre.
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Israel faces attacks on multiple fronts on the anniversary of the October 7 attack
Israel commemorated the anniversary of the October 7 massacre as Hamas fired more than 135 rockets at southern and central Israel, Iraqi militias targeted Israel with drones, and the Houthis launched a long-range missile at central Israel. The IDF’s top general met with the head of US Central Command on October 6. A third IDF division began operations in Lebanon as the Israeli Air Force hit 120 Hezbollah targets.
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Analysis: Iran threatens Israeli civil and nuclear infrastructure on October 7 anniversary
On the anniversary of the October 7 terrorist attack, the Islamic Republic has pledged to target Israeli cities and critical infrastructure while US and Israeli officials consider their options in response to Tehran’s second ballistic missile assault. With Israel’s air defense capabilities demonstrating superiority over Iranian missiles and the military setbacks suffered by the regime’s proxies, Tehran has increasingly diminished its leverage over Jerusalem. This shifting dynamic offers Israel a strategic opportunity to target the regime’s nuclear facilities, addressing the primary existential threat it faces.
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Analysis: The Houthis’ leadership structure
The Houthis in Yemen have an extensive leadership hierarchy. FDD’s Long War Journal lists some of the leaders of the organization, their roles, and if they have been sanctioned by the United States government.
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Jaish al-Adl claims responsibility for twin attacks in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan province
Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for twin attacks in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan province that killed IRGC members and local law enforcement personnel. The separatist group has intensified its attacks against regime targets recently, with one previous wave occurring in three cities.
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IDF begins Lebanon ground operation, Iran launches 180 ballistic missiles at Israel
The Israel Defense (IDF) Forces began a ground operation in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, led by the IDF’s 98th Division. The IDF described the offensive as “localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon.” Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, while Hezbollah fired rocket barrages at northern and central Israel.
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Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah eliminated in Beirut airstrike
The Israeli military and Hezbollah have both acknowledged the death of Hassan Nasrallah following an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Friday.
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Analysis: Tehran’s damage control tactics amidst Hezbollah’s setbacks
The Iranian regime’s current strategy seems focused on damage control, as it believes maintaining a foundation allows it to eventually regain influence in southern Lebanon. The Islamic Republic aims to create an image of total warfare through a series of calculated proxy attacks. This approach not only projects strength to its supporters but also bets on the possibility that the United States will pressure Israel to stop its strikes against Iranian militias.
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Analysis: The Houthis have challenged the Rules-Based International System and must be defeated
Was the international community culpably naive in failing to give unqualified backing to Yemen’s internationally recognized government (IRG)? And was this largely because of a knee-jerk hostility to the Saudis that is so common in Western progressive circles? If the Houthis genuinely pose a chronic threat to the Rules-Based International System and intend to hold freedom of navigation in the Red Sea hostage to any and every tactical interest they choose to pursue, will it become inevitable to try to revive and empower the Saudi-IRG coalition to suppress them?
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Analysis: Israel humbles Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah
After a week of exploding pagers and radios, Israel carried out a significant and successful strike targeting Hezbollah military leaders in Beirut.
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Israel prepared for Hezbollah response after Beirut strike
On September 19, the IDF asked residents of several northern towns and the city of Safed to adhere to special restrictions due to possible escalation with Hezbollah in Lebanon. On September 20, the IDF lifted the restrictions, even as Israel carried out an airstrike in Beirut that eliminated a Hezbollah leader and key Hezbollah commanders. The IDF Chief of Staff met with the head of the IDF’s Northern Command and IDF Division commanders, while Israel’s Minister of Defense also held key meetings about Israel’s new initiatives against Hezbollah.
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Analysis: Hezbollah’s Vengeance for Shukr was a propaganda exercise from start to Nasrallah’s speech
Hezbollah’s promised retaliation after Israel killed Fuad Shukr on July 31 finally came this Sunday. But the great vengeance promised by Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah turned out to be a flop. Nasrallah’s subsequent speech after Hezbollah’s attack was a transparent exercise in damage control.
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Analysis: Don’t over-concentrate US forces in the Middle East
US military bases in the Persian Gulf confront two challenges, one military and the other political. FDD’s Ryan Brobst, Bradley Bowman, and Behnam Ben Taleblu survey the two challenges and propose a way to address them.
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Hezbollah escalates attacks with over 100 rockets fired in a day
Hezbollah launched more than 100 rockets targeting Israel on September 4, the largest barrage in almost two weeks. The group has continued its daily attacks against northern Israel amid reports that the Israeli government is in talks with the US about seeking to reduce tensions. In addition, the Italian chief of the defense staff, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, visited Israel on September 4 for meetings with IDF counterparts.
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Analysis: Responding forcefully to the Axis of Resistance
As soon as the Islamic Republic of Iran was established, it effectively declared war on Israel and the West. International appeasement of Iran has failed, and the current crisis in the Middle East has clarified that a more forceful Western policy is required now to forestall a more dangerous confrontation a few years later.
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IDF chief of staff visits Jordan Valley amid West Bank terror threats
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi visited the Jordan Valley on August 27, where he met with officers of the Jordan Valley Brigade and spoke with the heads of local communities. His visit comes after several recent terror attacks in the valley and as threats have increased in the northern West Bank.
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Israeli military launches extensive operation against West Bank terrorist groups
The Israeli military launched an extensive operation in the West Bank on Tuesday aimed at degrading infrastructure established by terrorist groups in the territory.
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Analysis: From “harsh punishment” to “tactical retreat”—time isn’t on Tehran’s side
The Islamic Republic has scaled back its rhetoric against Israel by exercising “strategic ambiguity” and “tactical retreat” while claiming that “time is on [Tehran’s] side.” Israel’s ongoing onslaught against Iran-backed groups in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon suggests otherwise.
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Hamas and Islamic Jihad claim responsibility for botched Tel Aviv bombing
Hamas and Islamic Jihad took credit for a suicide bombing attack in Tel Aviv on Sunday evening. In the aftermath, Palestinian social media became rife with propaganda lauding the bomber and encouraging copycat attacks against Israeli civilians.
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Hezbollah targets northern Israel with rockets and drones in latest escalation
Hezbollah attacked northern Israel with rockets and drones on August 15, including firing around 20 rockets at the Shamir area. The IDF said a majority of the incoming threats were intercepted. Hezbollah described the attack as an increase in its range inside Israel, and the Iranian-backed terrorist group also continued to threaten broader attacks in retaliation for an IDF airstrike in Beirut in July.
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Israel confronts Hamas in southern Gaza amid regional threats
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) called on Palestinian civilians to evacuate several neighborhoods in southern Gaza after receiving continued rocket fire and detecting terrorist activity. Hamas attempted to target Tel Aviv with two long-range rockets on August 13. The IDF struck 30 targets in Gaza between August 10 and 11, and the continued fighting in southern Gaza comes amid Iran’s threats to target Israel in a broader attack.
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Analysis: Mass arrests and conflicting narratives following the Haniyeh assassination
Iran’s regime arrested dozens of intelligence officers who may have been responsible for the security breach that led to Haniyeh’s assassination. The IRGC’s sole control over the investigation into the incident and the regime’s contradictory reporting further demonstrate various parties are intentionally crafting differing narratives to deflect blame and avoid being seen as incompetent.
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Analysis: The Islamic Republic prepares to avenge Ismail Haniyeh
Despite Israel’s precision strike on a radar facility in Isfahan on April 19 and the recent assassination of Hamas Political Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran remains undeterred from picking a fight with conventionally superior and even nuclear-armed states. For a regime that has perfected the art of proxy warfare, the Islamic Republic is increasingly seeing the political utility of overt and attributable conflict in the Middle East.
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Analysis: Hints within Nasrallah’s speech about Hezbollah’s retaliation for Beirut strike
A speech by Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah, suggests Hezbollah intends to conduct painful retaliation for Fuad Shukur’s assassination but that the organization is still not interested in escalating to a full-scale conflict with Israel. When it comes, the retaliatory strike will likely aim to remain below the threshold that leads to the outbreak of war.
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Hezbollah fires rocket barrages at northern Israel
Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets targeting the western Galilee on the evening of August 1. Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate against Israel for the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut and Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The IDF continues to operate in Gaza, targeting Hamas operatives hiding in a school and a man the IDF accused of being a terrorist who used journalism work as a cover.
