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Transitions
The hunt for Zarqawi continues, while the Iraqi government moves forward in establishing the transitional government. Raids are being conducted in the town of Ramadi, and reports indicate US and Iraqi forces have sealed exits to the city. Meanwhile a Ramadi hospital is searched based on intelligence that Zarqawi was there. The search came up empty handed. Dan Darling, terrorism analyst, the blogosphere’s terrorologist and fellow Winds of Change team member, reports on the intelligence information recovered from Zarqawi’s laptop. According to Mr. Darling, Zarqawi is using PGP (Pretty Good Privacy) encryption, which apparently can be cracked (with much effort)…
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Of Pirates and Terrorists
An often overlooked theater in the Global War on Terror is the world’s oceans, a vital highway of the globalized world economy. Al Qaeda has shown an interest in attacking shipping in the past, including the failed attack on the USS The Sullivans and the successful attack on the USS Cole in 2000, and the successful attack on the French oil tanker Limburg in 2002. Attacks on shipping allows al Qaeda to disrupt the global economy, divert resources to protect the seas, and serves as vehicle for recruiting (the video from the USS Cole attack was used extensively in al…
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The Net
Task Force 626, a streamlined version of Task Force 121 that captured Saddam Hussein and killed his sons, believes they are on the trail of Zarqawi. Marine Gen. Sattler divulged several weeks ago that Zarqawi was close to capture several times by the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force stations in the restive al-Anbar province, and ABC News follows up with a report that Zarqawi was nearly detained in Ramadi (hat tip to Chester): On Feb. 20, the alleged terror mastermind was heading to a secret meeting in Ramadi, just west of Fallujah, where he used to base his operations, the official…
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The Desired Effect
Iraq’s insurgency is only as strong its local Sunni supporters will allow it to be. Without the local support infrastructure of the Sunni tribes, the foreign terrorists of al Qaeda will have an increasingly difficult time mounting effective large scale attacks against Coalition forces and the Iraqi government. Arthur Chenkoff’s special correspondent Haider Ajina reports two large Sunni political parties that sat out of January’s elections have had a change of heart, and will participate in the next round: “The following is a translation of a headline and article in the April 23rd Edition of the Iraqi Arabic newspaper Nahrain:…
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The Greatness of God?
Ansar al-Sunnah (Islamic Army in Iraq), an ally of al Qaeda in Iraq, has claimed credit for shooting down a privately owned Bulgarian Mi-8 helicopter. While the exact cause of the downing has not been determined (machinegun fire, RPG or surface-to-air missile), the most likely cause would be an RPG directed at the tail rotor of the helicopter. This is a technique perfected by al Qaeda, who trained Somali Islamists of al-Itihaad al-Islamiya in the infamous “Black Hawk Down” battle in Mogadishu, Somalia in 1993: Because intelligence had determined that the RPGs did not represent an air defense threat, the…
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Desperate Taliban
Coalition forces mount Operation Vigilance in Afghanistan to preempt potential Taliban and al Qaeda offensives that may be planned for the spring. According to Lt. Gen. David Barno, the senior commander in Afghanistan, the terrorists have lost the initiative after 3 ½ years of fighting and successful elections last fall, and are “desperate” to regain it: “As these terrorist capabilities grow more and more limited, the hard-core fanatics will grow more and more desperate to try and do something to change the course of events in Afghanistan Terrorists here in Afghanistan want to reassert themselves and I expect that they will…
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Camp Gannon Revisited
Two new accounts of the al Qaeda assault on Camp Gannon in Husaybah appear in USA Today and the Washington Post. By both accounts, Marine Lance Corporal Joshua Butler is due to receive some medals for his heroism in the fight. He repeatedly exposing himself to fire, and destroyed two of the suicide vehicles – a dump truck and a fire truck – while under fire from about thirty dismounted terrorists. Corporal Anthony Fink and First Sgt. Don Brazeal also acted bravely when destroying an enemy position, possibly killing up to 11 terrorists. Marines responded to the attack by deploying…
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www.zarqawi.com
As Iraq’s insurgency diminishes in its ability to affect the transition to a democratic state, Al Qaeda in Iraq digs in for the long haul. Evan Kohlmann reports on the discovery of a new web site being built by al Qaeda in Iraq. This site was discovered after a mistake was made by a jihadi programmer who humorously refers to himself as “Terrorist 007”: Several weeks ago, credible representatives of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s Al-Qaida faction in Iraq announced that they would soon be opening their own Al-Qaida website on the Internet, featuring propaganda materials, communiqu
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The Iraqi Beat
The war rages in Iraq. On the military front, Coalition troops continue the hunt for al Qaeda and local terrorists and insurgents. A combined US and Iraqi task force conducted a complex raid north of Baqubah to arrest a suspected leader of the insurgency: About 1,000 soldiers of the 3rd Brigade’s 1st Battalion, 30th Infantry Regiment, 2nd Battalion, 69th Armor Regiment, 2nd Battalion, 34th Armor Regiment and 500 members of the 32nd Iraqi Army Brigade participated in the attack. The U.S. Air Force also provided close air support, which included AC-130 gunships and F-16 fighter aircrafts, Warren said. No casualties…
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Desperate Terrorists
Al Qaeda has followed through on its plan to attack US bases on a larger scale. The Washington Post reports that Camp Gannon, a US post on the Syrian border, was attacked by a formation of al Qaeda fighters. As stated in last week in A Change in Tactics, direct assaults on American and Iraqi bases by platoon and company sized elements would not go well for al Qaeda. Attacks of this nature force the terrorists to expose themselves to the Coalition’s military strengths of training, leadership, firepower, armor, fortified positions, air-to-ground support, artillery support and surveillance: The raid Monday…
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Driving the Wedge
The prophet’s predictions of political failure in Iraq have been discredited just over a week after being uttered. The Iraqi transitional assembly has chosen Kurdish Jalal Talabani as president, along with Shiite Adel Abdul Mahdi and Sunni Ghazi al-Yawar as vice presidents. They immediately appointed Shiite Ibrahim al-Jaafari as prime minister, and he is now tasked to form a government [the Council on Foreign Relations has a quick primer on the leaders of the transitional government and the responsibilities of the new government]. The Iraqi assembly has engaged in a spirited debate over several issues. The suggestion of a woman…
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Entrapment
Iraq, as Princeton’s Michael Doran observed, was intended to be the graveyard of America’s counteroffensive against terror. Instead the enemy dug the grave for themselves. What we are seeing now is not simply the rout of a few armed men, but terror’s greatest defeat in modern times. Wretchard the Cat of Belmont Club, in Campaign Iraq has provided the United States a unique opportunity to engage al Qaeda in the heart of the Middle East. After the assault of Afghanistan, the rout of the Taliban and the inevitable scattering of al Qaeda, a new front was needed to draw out…
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War in the Magic Kingdom
Saudi Arabia continues to physically battle the dragon it created, while refusing to deal with the underlying ideological problem in the Magic Kingdom – the support of the radical Wahhabi strain of Islam, the foundation of al Qaeda and the wellspring of Islamist extremism. A three day battle in the heart of the Wahhabi stronghold of Al-Ras ended with the death of 14 al Qaeda terrorists, including two of the most wanted men in Saudi Arabia, Kareem al-Mojati, a founder of al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia and explosives expert with international contacts, and Saud al-Otaib. This was followed by the…
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A Change in Tactics
The recent attacks on Abu Ghraib prison provide an interesting window into the mindset and tactics of al Qaeda in Iraq. Austin Bay reports the goal of the attacks on Abu Ghraib is to amplify the propaganda effect of Abu Ghraib. No doubt this is true, as the mere mention of the name drives the antiwar elements into a fit of frenzy. Al Qaeda’s own statements on the assault show it is being used for political purposes; “Your brothers in the al Qaeda Organization (for Holy War) in Iraq launched a well-planned attack on Abu Ghraib prison, where Muslim women…
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Exodus and Ascent
As the Iraqi government continues their attempts to pull the leaders of the Sunni led insurgency from the battlefield and into the political spectrum, the insurgency continues to lose the power to influence the future of Iraq via violence. Robert F. Worth of the New York Times reports Sheik Harith al-Dari, “a leading spokesman for Iraq’s disaffected Sunni Arabs” and leader of the Sunni Muslim Scholars Association is negotiating with the government to bring in Sunni fighters. The Muslim Scholars Association has openly supported the insurgency and has called for the boycott of the January election. While al-Dari’s demands are…
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Great Games
The United States’ worldwide military posture provides valuable information how the US plans to address present and future threats. The US redeployment from the European theater marks the end of the Cold War strategy of protecting Europe from the threat of the now-defunct USSR. The shift of American forces to the East – Central Asia and the Middle East, and South – the Horn of Africa, reflects the new areas of concern for the United States. In the Asia Times, Ramtanu Maitra documents the proliferation of US bases in Central Asia, and posits the purposes are to surround Iran (a…
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Out of the Bottle
“The democratic genie is out of the bottle”. An update on the status of democratic progress in the Middle East, and how the United States is leveraging diplomacy to promote democracy in the region.
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Shifting Zarqawi
Osama bin Laden’s push for attacks in the United States by Zarqawi highlights several weaknesses in the current state of al Qaeda; a lack of experienced operatives and military and political pressure have forced the organization to modify its operations.
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Dealing with the Devil
The Tel Aviv terrorist attack threatens to destroy the most recent truce between the Palestinian Authority and Israel. Islamic Jihad has taken credit for the suicide bombing, and Israel believes the order to conduct the attack was given from Syria. Israel indicated it would not retaliate at this time in order to give the Palestinian Authority the chance to hunt for the murderers. The door remains open for Israeli action inthelikely event the Palestinian Authority does not act in good faith. Palestinian Authority President Abbas believes Hezbollah is involved: Abbas angrily accused a “third party” of orchestrating Friday’s attack to…
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The Syrian Keystone
“It’s strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq. I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world. The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it.” Walid Jumblatt, a Druze Muslim Leader of the Lebanese Opposition Walid Jumblatt succinctly explains why Iraq is the political keystone, as well as the geographic keystone, to addressing the…
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The Sunnis’ Cards
As reported yesterday, the Sunnis are frightened over the prospects of being frozen out of the new Iraqi government, and now wish to participate in drafting the new Iraqi Constitution, which is one of the main tasks of the newly elected Iraqi Assembly. Control of the Assembly and the appointment of the Presidency Council requires a supermajority of two-thirds of the Assembly, and the passage of the Constitution requires the approval of the Iraqi people. The Shiite factions (which should not be looked at as a homogenous voting block) took about 50% of the vote, and the Kurdish factions about…
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The Blitz
The recent wave of violent attacks, which killed over a hundred Iraqi Shiites, has inspired fear in a segment of the Iraqi population. It isn’t the Shiites shaking in fear, however. Reality is beginning to dawn on the Iraqi Sunnis, and it is a reality they were not prepared to face: As the Shiite majority prepared to take control of the country’s first freely elected government, tribal chiefs representing Sunni Arabs in six provinces issued a list of demands – including participation in the government and drafting a new constitution – after previously refusing to acknowledge the vote’s legitimacy. “We…
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The Grip on the Levant
Lebanese politics gets interesting in the wake of the assassination of former Primer Minister Harari. Mr. Harari was a wealthy and influential Lebanese politician and businessman who positioned himself as an opposition leader to the existing pro-Syrian Lebanese government. While a previously unknown terrorist group (“The Organization for Victory and Jihad in the Levant”) has claimed credit for the murder, Syria is strongly suspected to have murdered Mr. Harari. But the Arab and European media refuses to rule out the usual suspect: let’s blame the Jews! The Lebanese government refuses to sanction an international investigation, even though it is believed…
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Courting Indian Country
Russia has indicated that it will continue with assisting Iran’s nuclear program, increasing the likelihood of a nuclear-armed Iran. Between the soft efforts of the European Union 3 (EU-3) to stop the Iranian nuclear program and Russia’s encouragement and support, the Mullahs of Iran are sure to continue their quest to become a nuclear power. The impact of Russia’s support of Iran’s nuclear program is both far-reaching and short sighted. Russia is indicating that it is separating itself from the West by co-opting the theocratic regime of Iran. Russia’s myopia is clear: they do not recognize the interrelated threat from…
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Motivations
Please accept my apologies for not living up to my promise of posting here regularly while working at Easongate. I have written a post over at Easongate to explain why I have devoted so much time to such a seemingly insignificant topic many would not understand to be related to the war. It is titled “Motivations”, and I expound further on the “information war”, which I mentioned the other day, and how we can fight it. Justin will be filling in for me when he can (I greatly appreciate this) and I will attempt to post as well if time…
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Stalling for Time
The Islamic Republic of Iran has indicated it has no intentions of halting or dismantling its nuclear program. In fact, the negotiations with the European Union 3 (EU-3) are merely designed to ensure that Iran retains its nuclear program. Ali Agha Mohammadi, the spokesman of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has stated as such: “Iran will never scrap its nuclear program, and talks with Europeans are intended to protect the country’s nuclear achievements, not negotiate an end to them, an Iranian official said Wednesday.” Despite a recent agreement with the EU-3 to suspend its enrichment programs, Iran is testing crucial…
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The Nature of the Beast
One of the most appalling reported acts of exploitative terrorism was perpetrated during last Sunday’s election in Iraq. Stymied by the Coalition and Iraqi security restrictions in place to reduce violence at the polls, the Iraqi “resistance” used a wheelchair bound child with Down’s Syndrome as a suicide bomber to murder Iraqis hoping to vote (hattip Free Will Blog via Chester): The official, Falah al-Naqib, said a handicapped child was used to carry out one of more than three dozen suicide attacks on election day. “A handicapped child was used to carry out a suicide attack on a polling site,”…
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No Delay
Election Day in Iraq is a little over a month away, and the violence against the Iraqi people and interim government increases. Last week, two election workers were gunned down in cold blood. Today, Muhammad Abd al-Hussein, a secular Iraqi politician critical of Syria was murdered, and Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, the head of the most influential Shiite party narrowly missed an assassination attempt which killed over a dozen people. Critics of the upcoming election on January 30 state that more time is needed to establish security in the Sunni regions, give the Sunni political parties time to enter the election…
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Cutting Costs
Belmont Club looks at the mortar attack on the mess hall in Mosul, and the media and European inclination to misrepresent, and in some cases ignore wholesale the nature of the Islamofascist enemy and the deeds of Saddam’s regime. The goal of the enemy in Iraq is to reduce our will to fight and push for the withdrawal of American troops, and the media’s portrayal of the Islamofascists as a legitimate ‘resistance’ only helps their cause by weakening support for the Iraqi people both domestically and internationally. The price American would pay for abandoning Iraq would be steep; however the…
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Terror TV
Charles Johnson of little green footballs links to an article on the banning of Al-Manar (The Beacon), the satellite television station of Hezbollah. The United States government has officially designated Al-Manar a terrorist organization, and the broadcast of Al-Manar will not be allowed to be carried on American satellites. Any persons or companies collaborating with Al-Manar would be subject to American laws and sanctions. The designation of Al-Manar as Foreign Terrorist Organization/Specially Designated Global Terrorist Entity was a long time coming, as the network has a history terrorist activities. Samples of Al-Manar’s “programming” include hatred towards America and Israel, the…
