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Flies on the paper
The Flypaper theory has come under much derision since it was proposed, but it is difficult to deny the US presence in Iraq has attracted important and hard to detect members of al Qaeda. Many al Qaeda members have been killed or captured in Iraq while to engage the US Army and Marines on conditions disadvantageous to the jihadis. Iraq has forced al Qaeda to commit its limited resources to the battle, and experienced leaders and operators have thrown themselves against US and Iraqi forces with reckless abandon. The Coalition has netted some very important jihadis the past couple of…
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Another Failed Attack
The insurgency tries its hand once more at a massed assault, this time on an Iraqi police station in Baghdad. Omar from Iraq The Model directs us to an article in the Guardian on the assault, and rightly points out the negative slant in the article (hat tip to Soldier’s Dad). The Guardian titles this one “Iraq insurgents snatch victory from defeat“, but it is clear this attack was a massive military defeat. There are no indications if this was al Qaeda, but I suspect they likely planned this with elements of Ansar al-Sunnah, the Islamic Army in Iraq and…
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Dispatches from the Jihadi Belt
Martyrdom, Denial, Success and Reorganization The latest releases from al Qaeda in Iraq and Saudi Arabia provide some insight on the mindset of the organizations and the need to continue to communicate with the faithful on the status of martyrdom, the denial of Coalition successes and the status of the operations. The first communiqu
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The Taliban’s Springtime Offensive Wilts in the Summer Heat
The Taliban and al Qaeda have stepped up their springtime offensive in Afghanistan in an attempt to thwart the upcoming elections this fall. So far the results have been abysmal. Operations in Afghanistan are netting Taliban bigwigs. Two commanders have been captured, and two more are said to be surrounded. Another has surrendered. The Afghani Army and police forces are taking an active role in the hunt. US and Afghani forces have met the challenge and well over 150 Taliban fighters have been killed and 150 have fled the country in the past week. Twenty Taliban were killed during a…
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Training Grounds, Magnets, and Hunters in Iraq
A CIA report leaked to the press indicates Iraqi is becoming a training ground for terrorists on par with or exceeding that of Afghanistan in the 1990s. This isn’t news, however, as the National Intelligence Council came to a similar conclusion in January of this year. The latest report indicates that terrorists are gaining “a broad range of skills, from car bombings and assassinations to coordinated conventional attacks on police and military targets” and are likely to take their skills with them to their home countries, and even infiltrate Western societies “once the insurgency ends.” This fact is often used…
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Abandoning Iraq (Again)
The calls for timelines for withdrawal from Iraq, as well as the drop in public support for the mission forces us to reassess the implications of leaving Iraq in the lurch prior to defeating the insurgency. In yesterday’s post “US public opinion and Iraq” , Dan Darling touches on some of the issue of the real costs of abandoning Iraq to al Qaeda and the Baathist insurgents. If Iraq fails, it won’t be bad for the right or the left, it’ll be bad for everyone. You want to see al Qaeda recruiting skyrocket, you wait till bin Laden and Zarqawi…
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Red-on-Red
The brutal acts of violence directed at civilians and Iraqi police is losing favor among some of the members of the Iraqi insurgency. During Operation Matador, we saw examples of the local tribes, some of whom are sympathetic or even participating in the insurgency, rise up to fight the foreign jihadis after their attempts to impose a Taliban-like rule of law in Western Anbar. Today’s New York Times reports further cases of ‘red-on-red’, AKA the enemy fighting amongst themselves. The Marines gladly watched as insurgents duked it out along the Syrian border. Late Sunday night, American marines watching the skyline…
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A Springtime of Ops in Iraq
Over the course of the past week, Coalition forces conducted four separate battalion size plus operations in Iraq, two in Anbar – Spear in Karabilah and Dagger near lake Thar Thar, one south of Mosul in Tal Afar (Operation Veterans Forward), and one south of Baghdad – White Shield. Force estimates for Spear and Dagger are at about 1,000 combined Coalition and Iraqi forces each, about 4,000 troops for the Tal Afar operation and 2,000 troops, split between American and Iraqi forces for White Shield. The past week of operations follows a spring of military offensives designed to disrupt the…
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Operation Spear in Anbar Province
US Marines and accompanying Iraqi troops return to the Qusaybah/Qaim region on the Syrian border, and launch Operation Spear in the city of Karabilah. This region is the main hub of the southern ratline from Syria, which has been inaccurately compared to the Ho Chi Minh Trail of the Vietnam War. Spear explains the reports of US troops massing on the Syrian border. Via CENTCOM: Approximately 1,000 Marines and Sailors from Regimental Combat Team-2, 2nd Marine Division and Iraqi Security Force soldiers are conducting combat operations in northwestern Al Anbar Province. Operation Spear (Romhe) began in the early morning hours…
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Operation Spear
Bill Roggio at Winds of Change has an exceptional analysis of Operation Spear on the Syrian border, by making the link between the facts on the ground coupled with the larger diplomatic picture of events in Iraq.
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US forces capture key Zarqawi commander
Coalition forces captured a senior al Qaeda in Iraq leader during a raid in Mosul. Following on the heals of the arrests of middlemen Abed & Raed Suleiman, Hussayn Ibrahim and Jassim al-Bazi, and 11 Zarqawi operatives in Spain, the Coalition special operations forces nabbed Abu Talha, a senior aide to Zarqawi. . Abu Talha is one of the major leaders of the al Qaeda-linked Ansar al-Islam, a senior commander in al Qaeda in Iraq, and has been thought of a possible successor to Zarqawi. According to CENCTCOM; “Talha never stayed more than one night at any one residence, and…
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Saif al-Adel, Zarqawi, al Qaeda and Iran
News on the Zarqawi front has gone cold; however the Coalition continues its efforts to dismantle his organization by attacking the middlemen. Abed Dawood Suleiman, Zarqawi’s military aide, and his son Raed, a former captain in Saddam’s army, have been captured outside of Baghdad. Jassim Hazan Hamadi al-Bazi, a bomb maker who “built and sold remote-controlled bombs used in roadside attacks from an electronic repair shop in Balad, 50 miles north of Baghdad” has also been detained. While the hunt continues for Zarqawi and his murderers, Dan Darling points us to interesting information on the relationship between Saif al-Adel, Zarqawi,…
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Few Iraqi Battalions Are Operational?
In Yesterday’s post, Training the Iraqi Army, we took issue with New York Times characterization of the Iraqi units as not being ‘operational’: The article documents the current and projected manpower in a section misleadingly titled “Few Battalions Are Operational” … It appears the author is referring to combat readiness, defined as “a unit’s ability to perform in combat. Includes the status of personnel, logistics, morale, and training.” A deficiency in any of the areas mentioned would make a unit less than ‘fully operational’, however this does not mean the units cannot perform certain duties such as patrols, garrison or…
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Training the Iraqi Army
The training of the Iraqi military and security services is a crucial element to the defeat of the Iraqi insurgency and the establishment of a secure Iraqi nation. The New York Times weighs in on the issue of the status of the training of the Iraqi military, and estimates it will take upwards of two years or more for Iraqi forces to be able to operate independently from Coalition forces. This should not be surprising as building a competent fighting force, particularly in a nation subjected to over thirty years of oppressive rule, is a slow and difficult process. The…
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The Political Fight Against the Iraqi Insurgency
The current offensive against the Iraqi insurgency consists of both military and political components. Both are crucial to Iraq’s fledgling democracy, and achievement in one area spills over to the other. Military successes in securing Najaf, Fallujah and other sections of Iraq led to the successful execution of the January election. The election has led to the fitful yet democratically negotiated creation of a legitimate Iraqi government with the mandate to establish security and defeat the insurgency. Operations in Western Iraq, the Sunni Triangle and Baghdad have the consent of the Iraqi people through their elected government. These operations are…
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The Syrian End of the Ratline
Syria’s involvement in facilitating the Iraqi insurgency has been apparent for some time. Recent intelligence indicates al Qaeda in Iraq has conducted a meeting within Syrian territory. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has accused Syria of “allowing its territory to be used to organize terrorist attacks against innocent Iraqis.” Syria responded by severing military and intelligence ties with the United States and claiming that they have arrested or deported over 1,200 jihadis who were attempting to enter Iraq. The United States is just ungrateful for the efforts, according to the Syrian government. The situation along the Syrian-Iraqi border has…
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Progressing in Iraq
Operation Thunder has temporarily put a dent in the car bombings in Baghdad. Mohammed from Iraq the Model provides a situation report based on the local Iraqi media, and states “The last 24 hours or so resulted in arresting some 300 terrorists and suspects in addition to confiscating amounts of weapons.” The number of arrests stemming from Thunder is well over a thousand. The insurgency appears to have pulled up shop and moved north, executing a series of four attacks directed at Iraqi Security Forces. The Coalition is conducting an offensive in Tal Afar, and as mentioned last weekend, an…
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Ratlines in Iraq vs the Ho Chi Minh Trail
This weekend, John Burns of the New York Times again makes the hackneyed “Iraq is Vietnam” analogy (see Shadow of Vietnam Falls Over Iraq River Raids for a prior example by Mr. Burns). Iraq veteran Chester from The Adventures of Chester takes Mr. Burns to task for his inaccurate comparison, and notes the main reasons why the Euphrates ratline is not comparable to the Ho Chi Minh Trail used by the North Vietnamese to supply the Viet Cong. He responds that: * The geography is wholly incomparable * The terrain in Iraq is much more favorable to air and ground…
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Operation Thunder Rolling Along
Almost one week has passed since Operation Thunder (also referred to as Operation Lightning) was executed on the heels of New Market in Haditha and Matador on the Syrian Border. The purpose of Thunder is to secure Baghdad, then expand operations and the presence of Iraqi Security Forces into the Sunni Triangle. Evidence surfaces that Thunder is freeing up forces in other areas of Iraq to pursue the offensive, and perhaps expanding operations outside Baghdad. South of Baghdad in the Triangle of Death, a region delineated by the towns of Yusufiyah, Latifiyah and Mahmudiyah, Coalition and Iraqi forces conduct a…
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Zarqawi Rumorline: Dead?
Is Abu Musab al-Zarqawi dead? Adnkronos International, who was first in reporting Zarqawi was injured on May 11, reports Zarqawi died today and his body has been placed in a cemetery in Fallujah. bq. Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi – al Qaeda’s leader in Iraq – died on Friday and his body is in Fallujah’s cemetary, an Iraqi Sunni sheikh, Ammar Abdel Rahim Nasir, has told the Saudi on-line newspaper Al-Medina. He claims that gunfights which broke out in Fallujah in the last few days involved militants trying to protect the insurgency leader’s tomb from a group of American soldiers…
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THIS is a Gulag
Irene Khan, Secretary General of Amnesty International has characterized the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay as “the gulag of our times” , demonstrating her utter lack of perspective or knowledge of history. Anne Applebaum, the author of GULAG: a History, neatly places the Soviet Gulag into the proper historical context (excerpted from a PBS interview and cleaned it up for readability): It belongs in the context most obviously of the Holocaust, which… killed six million Jews plus many millions of other people plus the enormous destruction of the Second World War. It belongs in the context of the Chinese and…
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al Qaeda in Iraq: Next in Line
al Qaeda in Iraq: Next in Line The Times Online reports Zarqawi was seriously wounded as he fled the battlefield during Operation Matador. According to an ‘insurgent commander’; “Shrapnel went in between the right shoulder and his chest, ripped it open and is still stuck in there.” He is believed to have been taken to a “non-Arab country”, which would be Iran. The Kuwati News Agency (KUNA) is reporting that Zarqawi has been spotted in a town north of Baghdad and is surrounded: A force of Iraqi commandoes, supported by US forces, have surrounded the village of Abu Shallal, north…
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Zarqawi Successors
Conflicting reports of the status of al Qaeda commander in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi abound. Egyptian blogger Hammorabi reports Zarqawi is dead and his family in Jordan is preparing his funeral (note: Hammorabi has been accurate in the past, he led on the news of Zarqawi being wounded). Al Qaeda in Iraq claims all is well, and Zarqawi is fine, just fine, thank you. Recently we’ve looked at the potential for internecine warfare between the various al Qaeda factions in Iraq as well as a few of the potential successors to Zarqawi’s throne. Questions remain about the impact Zarqawi’s loss…
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The Dogs of War
While the media continues to press for American self-flagellation over supposed flushing of Qur’ans in Gitmo (which by the way has no basis in fact), our enemies in Iraq continue to act in the most depraved manner. We already know insurgent snipers intentionally target doctors and journalists. Their training materials explicitly state this. Their selection of suicide bombers is disgusting as well. Not satisfied with blackmailing innocents to execute suicide attacks or using young adults with Down’s syndrome as unsuspecting walking bombs [a crime so foul there is no Hell with an appropriate punishment], al Qaeda has ventured to the…
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The Struggle for Zarqawi’s Throne
The Iraqi government seems to be reasonably convinced Zarqawi has been seriously wounded. If this is indeed the case, how will al Qaeda in Iraq handle the transition from Zarqawi to his successor? As Dan Darling astutely pointed out last night, it might get messy as various factions, from the foreign al Qaeda elements to the Baathist converts who have sworn fealty to Zarqawi, battle over control over the network. Dan postulates the main players in line for the crown are: Abdul Hadi al-Iraqi (a senior al Qaeda leader who is reportedly Zarqawi’s liaison to bin Laden), Izzat Ibrahim…
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Zarqawi: “Chest Pains” and More Middlemen
Rumors on the status of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi continue to swirl. Earlier this week it was believed he suffered a gut shot. The latest has Zarqawi fleeing the country with a serious chest wound: An Islamic Web site statement claimed Wednesday that Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi, al Qaeda’s point man in Iraq, has fled to a “neighboring country” (see Dan Darling’s thoughts on where that might be) with two Arab doctors treating him for gunshot wounds to his lung…. It said al-Zarqawi was in “stable condition now” after he incurred a “bullet wound which penetrated his right lung.” A Zarqawi lieutenant named…
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Operation New Market Commences in Haditha
Operation New Market has commenced in the city of Haditha. The city is strategically located on the Euphrates River; it sits at the midpoint between Baghdad and Qaim on the Syrian border, as well as at the crossroads to a major highway to Mosul in the north. Wretchard’s prediction and explanation of The River War still holds true to this day. American Marines currently garrison the Haditha Dam, but do not maintain a presence in the city itself. Over 1,000 Marines are involved in New Market, and while the force size is similar to that of Operation Matador, initial reports…
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Back to the Wild West of Anbar Province
In an article titled “Insurgents Flourish in Iraq’s Wild West” , the Los Angeles Times offers a bleak assessment of the availability of Coalition and Iraqi forces in the Anbar province. While the Marines involved in Operation Matador were able to easily sweep through Western Iraq and kill and capture al Qaeda members, they have not established a long term presence and may have left the area open to re-infiltration by al Qaeda. Yet as soon as the operation [Matador] concluded, the Marines crossed back over the Euphrates River and left no U.S. or Iraqi government presence in the region…
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Wounded Z, Revisited
Rumors that al Qaeda’s Commander in Iraq Abu Musab al Zarqawi has been wounded prior to and during Operation Matador are beginning to resurface. When Zarqawi’s lap top was seized, it was believed he was taking painkillers while recovering “from a wound to his stomach.” A week ago Zarqawi was reported to have visited a hospital in Ramadi with a serious stomach wound. The doctor on the scene was interviewed by US intelligence and reportedly a DNA test was requested. Today an al Qaeda linked website has called for prays for Zarqawi (the purported speaker is Abu Maysarah al-Iraqi, the…
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Iraq Updates
I’ve posted two updates over at Winds of Change.NET on Iraq: Wounded Z, Revisited discusses reports of on an al Qaeda website that Zarqawi needs your prayers. Infiltrating the Iraqi Insurgency follows up on Operation Squeeze Play and the possibility that the insurgency has been penetrated by Iraqi agents.
