The Islamic Courts Abandons Kismayo

Mutinies, defections in the Islamic Courts after a brief battle north of Kismayo

Ethiopian forces quickly moved south to pursue the al Qaeda backed Islamic Courts after taking Mogadishu last Friday. Just four days after ejecting the Islamic Courts from the capital, a large armored column punched over 300 miles south to the outskirts of Kismayo. The Ethiopian and Transitional Federal Government forces engaged the beleaguered Islamist militias that were hastily building a network of trenches to defend the town of Jilib, just north of the strategic port city of Kismayo. Inside “clan militias within Kismayo turned on the Islamists,” reports The New York Times. “That set off running gunbattles across the city, with several people reportedly killed.”

The battle in Jilib began at 5:00 pm local time on New Years Eve, with an intense artillery dual. The Ethiopian Air Force pounded Islamic Courts positions. By 2:00 am New Years Day, just nine hours after the fighting began, the Islamic Courts retreated, and also withdrew from Kismayo without a fight. Both sides are said to have taken heavy casualties in the fight. A source indicates a significant element of the Islamic Courts army mutinied during the fighting, and others deserted.

Garowe reports the remnants of the Islamic Courts army and its leadership have fled Kismayo for the island of Ras Kamboni (see our report from yesterday for more on Ras Kamboni). Shabelle indicates “senior leaders along with nearly hundred battlewagons and troops” left the city for areas unknown. A Somali source tells us the Islamic Courts are also moving into the forests west of Kismayo, to regroup and initiate an insurgency. Ethiopian forces are no doubt pushing southward yet again in pursuit of the Islamic Courts remnants.

The Islamic Court’s decision to muster its forces in the south is a curious one. The leadership essentially decided to hem itself into a narrow corridor with the Indian Ocean to the east and the Kenyan border to the west and south, and the Ethiopian and TFG forces to the north.

“They first thought they could escape to Kenya because the ethnic Somalis in Kenya were sympathetic to them, but the Kenyan government immediately closed its border. Then they thought they could flee by taking boats to Eritrea but the American warships blocked that escape route,” said Dr. Abdiweli Ali, a professor at Niagra Universery who is in contact with the Ethiopian government, in an interview with us.

“The Kenyan government said it closed its border with Somalia to intercept the Islamist leaders who abandoned their last stronghold of Kismayo, trying to enter Kenya,” Shabelle confirms.

The Islamic Courts leaders have repeatedly stated they would begin an insurgency. The TFG and Ethiopians must kill or capture the Islamic Courts and al Qaeda leadership to prevent an insurgency or decrease its effectiveness. The Islamic Courts decision to engage the Ethiopian forces at Jilib must be viewed as a holding action to allow the leadership to escape.

The whereabouts of al Qaeda linked Hassan Dahir Aweys, the wanted leader of the Islamic Courts, is still unknown. As are Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan and Abu Taha al-Sudani, three known terrorist behind the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania being sheltered by the Islamic Courts, are still missing. Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, Sheikh Hassan Turki , Aden Hashi Ayro, Yusuf Indohaadde and others involved with al Qaeda, the Islamic Courts and training foreign fighters are on the run.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

Tags: Somalia