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Analysis: Ukraine’s bold—and risky—gamble in Kursk
Ukraine’s surprise offensive in the Kursk region is a daring gambit likely intended to divert Russian forces and shift the war’s momentum. But it also comes with major risks for Ukraine, which is short on reserves and struggling to hold its lines in Donetsk Oblast.
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Key Russian division gets new commander amid stalled offensive at Chasiv Yar
A June 22 message on a Telegram channel affiliated with the Russian 98th Guards Airborne Division seems to indicate Major General Yevgeny N. Tonkikh has been replaced as the division’s commander. The reason for the change is unclear, though it could be tied to stalled Russian progress in the city of Chasiv Yar, among other possible reasons.
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Ukraine’s new Unmanned Systems Forces takes shape
Ukraine announced the commander of its nascent Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi. Sukharevskyi detailed various plans for the USF and how Ukraine plans to continue leveraging unmanned technology in its conflict with Russia.
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Photos offer insights on Russia’s new UMPB D-30SN glide bomb
Recent photos shared on social media offer insights on a new Russian glide bomb that has seen growing use in Ukraine: the UMPB D-30SN.
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As Ukrainian Forces Flow to Kharkiv, Russia Inches Forward at Chasiv Yar
As Russia’s Kharkiv offensive has forced Ukraine to divert forces badly needed elsewhere, the Russians are trying to capitalize on the eastern front.
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U.S. Rushes Aid to Ukraine as Russia Presses Near Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar
Long-delayed U.S. aid is finally on its way to Ukraine as Russia presses forward near Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar. A look inside those battles.
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Ukrainian Parliament Passes Mobilization Bill But Punts on Demobilization
Ukraine’s parliament finally passed a bill aimed at redressing its manpower shortage. But Kyiv’s lack of urgency has given Russia an opportunity to make gains.
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Battle of Avdiivka: A Preliminary Analysis
The battle was generally favorable for Ukraine, as it destroyed a lot of Russian combat power. But Ukraine waited too long to withdraw and failed to prepare a solid second line of defense.
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Russian Munitions Production Higher But Still Insufficient
A Ukrainian intelligence official confirmed that Russia has increased production of key munitions. But supply remains short of demand.
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Zelenskyy Orders Ukrainian Forces to Dig In
Extensive fortifications helped Russia thwart Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Ukraine may now take a page from Russia’s book heading into a tough 2024.
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Key Precision-Strike System for Ukraine Delayed Until 2024
The much-anticipated GLSDB will not arrive in Ukraine until early 2024. It will offer Ukraine a cost-effective weapon against targets up to 150 km away.
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Drone Fragment Offers Clue About Russia’s Shahed-136 Production Rate
As Moscow looks to ramp up production of Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, a recent strike left a clue about Russia’s production rate.
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No Solid Evidence Russia Debuted ‘Italmas’ Drone
Despite speculation that Russia debuted its new Italmas drone in Ukraine, the mystery drone in question is likely more mundane.
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Ukraine Shows HAWK Air Defense System in Action for First Time
While the HAWK may be old, Ukraine will take all the air defenses it can get as winter approaches.
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Ukraine now has ATACMS — but will soon need more
ATACMS has already proven its value for Ukraine in strikes against a pair of Russian helicopter bases. But unless Kyiv receives more missiles, it will soon run out.
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Ukraine Might Finally Get ATACMS. Here’s What That Means.
Washington may finally give Ukraine ATACMS missiles. Although not a silver bullet, ATACMS will be a boon for Ukraine. Here’s how.
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Main Thrust of Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Has Begun
Ukraine seems to have launched the main thrust of its counteroffensive. The coming weeks will likely determine whether the operation succeeds.
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More Evidence That Russia’s Making Iranian Drones
Further evidence has emerged indicating Russia has begun making Iranian kamikaze drones or at least prototypes thereof.
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Crimean Bridge Damaged by Ukrainian Strike
Ukraine apparently struck the Crimean Bridge using unmanned surface vehicles. However, it will likely have a limited impact on Russian military logistics.
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France Sends SCALP-EG Missiles to Ukraine
Kyiv’s new French-supplied missiles will help the Ukrainian military degrade Russian logistics and command and control.
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Russia’s National Guard to Get Tanks Following Wagner Mutiny
The head of Russia’s National Guard said his troops will receive tanks and other heavy equipment following Wagner’s mutiny.
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Kyiv Strikes Key Bridge Connecting Crimea to Mainland Ukraine
The Ukrainian military on Thursday struck a key bridge connecting the Crimean Peninsula to the Russian-occupied part of Kherson Oblast. The strike aims to degrade Russia’s ability to resist the counteroffensive Kyiv launched earlier this month. On Thursday morning, Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed head of Kherson Oblast, shared footage showing a large hole in the Chonhar road bridge. An older, parallel road bridge that’s not in operation also sustained damage. There’s no indication that a nearby rail bridge, located a few miles to the southwest, was damaged. The strike appears to have occurred around 5 AM that morning. Russian investigators…
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Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Two Weeks In
Two weeks into its counteroffensive, Ukraine has made some initial gains while also suffering losses. The operation has yet to reach its decisive phase.
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Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Has Likely Begun
Ukraine launched a flurry of localized offensives across the battlefield on June 4 and 5, most notably in Russian-occupied southern Donetsk Oblast. These attacks likely aim merely to probe Russian defenses or divert Russia’s attention from a forthcoming larger offensive. Nevertheless, the early stages of Kyiv’s much-anticipated counteroffensive appear to have begun. Ukraine reportedly launched assaults in or around Mar’inka, Avdiivka, and Bakhmut. In the south, Russian sources said Ukraine conducted small-scale reconnaissance-in-force near Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and stepped up incursions across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. In addition, groups of Russian nationals fighting for Ukraine conducted…
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How Much Can Iranian Artillery Ammo Help Russia?
Moscow is allegedly looking to Iran to help redress its artillery ammo shortage. But while Iranian supplies can help, they likely can’t sustain Russia’s current rate of fire.
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Generation Jihad Ep. 86 — An update on Russia’s war in Ukraine
Host Bill Roggio is joined again by John Hardie, deputy director of FDD’s Russia Program, to discuss the latest developments from Russia’s war in Ukraine, including Russia’s recent change in command of its forces.
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Moscow Shakes Up Command of Its Forces in Ukraine (Again)
Moscow’s latest command shake-up likely reflects internal power politics and bodes poorly for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
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Estimating Russia’s Kh-101 Production Capacity
Data from downed Kh-101 cruise missiles suggests that despite sanctions, Russian production of these (and perhaps other) missiles not only persists but may be greater than some previously thought.
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Iranian Shahed-136 Drones Increase Russian Strike Capacity and Lethality in Ukraine
While it will not change the conflict’s overall direction, the Shahed-136 has bolstered Russia’s long-range precision strike capacity while providing some additional capability against front-line targets.
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Generation Jihad Ep. 81 — An update on Russia’s war in Ukraine
Host Bill Roggio is again joined by John Hardie, deputy director of FDD’s Russia Program, to discuss the latest from Russia’s war in Ukraine, including Putin’s announcements on mobilization and additional annexations as well as other developments from the battlefield.
