Where in the world might the next state collapse into failure?
Hosts Bill and Caleb ultimately narrowed it down to two options: Somalia or Mali.
Shabaab in Somalia has aptly been dubbed “The Taliban of Africa,” given how well-organized, well-armed and effective it is there as a jihadist group.
But Mali is actually the weaker state. To boot:
— The UN has undertaken an unprecedented withdrawal of its peacekeeping forces and will no longer have a presence in Mali by the end of this year;
— France, which was a major counterterrorism partner, has already completely withdrawn its troops from Mali;
— There is currently an Islamic Statelet in northern Mali, where the Islamic State controls the majority of an entire province;
— Al Qaeda controls huge swaths of territory in both northern and central Mali, and it increasingly threatens Bamako as it slowly encroaches on the capital;
— And also in the ring: Russia’s Wagner Group.
Despite all of these excellent targets, the country’s ruling military junta in Bamako is threatening open conflict with rebels in the north — a situation that could easily erupt into war.
Bill and Caleb agree: It’s Mali on the brink.
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