-
Joining al Qaeda, Declining al Qaeda
The fracturing of Iraq’s insurgency has gained the attention of the media of late, and this is becoming a source of concern in some jihadi circles. ABC News provides an analysis that mirrors one written by ThreatsWatch over a week ago. ABC News quotes Fawaz Gerges, a consultant; “the Sunnis are chasing the al Zarqawi men from all over the al Anbar Province. The implications are tremendous for Iraq, the American military presence in Iraq, and the war against al Qaeda. The tide has seemed to turn against the al Zarqawi network in Iraq.” Jihad Unspun attempts to counterbalance the…
-
Operations and Negotiations in Iraq
The ‘maintenance’ phase of the Anbar Campaign proceeds as Iraqi Army units continue to take greater responsibility for security operations in Anbar province. Iraqi units are increasingly conducting independent operations in the region after joint Coalition and Iraqi operations over the fall placed a permanent presence in the towns and cities along the Western Euphrates River Valley. Operation Moonlight on the Syrian border was one such example. Operation Final Strike is the latest. Final Strike is an independent counterinsurgency operation conducted by two battalions (about 1,000 troops) of the 3rd Brigade, 1st Iraqi Army Division in the eastern Jazerra desert…
-
False Foreign Fighter Report
Great strides have been made to turn the native elements of the Iraqi insurgency against the al Qaeda wing of the insurgency. Insurgent groups in Anbar province and the city of Samarra have declared war against al Qaeda. But news the Karabilah tribe is summarly rounding up al Qaeda without a fight should be viewed with skepticism. Omar at Iraq The Model translates and reprints a spectacular claim by Arabic newspaper Dar al-Hayat which purports a massive operation to purge the al-Qaim region by local tribal groups is currently underway. According to Sheikh Usama Jad’aan, the leader of Karabila tribes…
-
The Iraqi Insurgent Divide Widens
The residents of troubled Sunni city of Samarra, where the insurgency has maintained an active presence, have voiced its dismay ay al Qaeda’s brutal tactics. One week ago, a local resident tipped off Coalition forces on the whereabouts of an insurgent bomb-making cell. A joint Iraqi-Coalition raid netted seven suspects, including two of the city’s most wanted terrorists. Two days ago, a demonstration against al Qaeda, organized by the Iraqi Islamic Party and the Muslim Scholars’ Association, turned out over 1,000 protestors. Kamal Ahmed, a protest organizer, spoke out against al Qaeda; “They have to stop killing innocent people like…
-
The Pakistani Frontier
The airstrike on al Qaeda leadership in the town of Damadola has done more than just kill up to five senior al Qaeda commanders, including Abu Khabab, the chief of al Qaeda’s WMD program; it has shone a light on the largely hidden war occurring on the Afghan-Pakistani border, the pervasiveness of al Qaeda and the Taliban in the tribal belts, and Pakistan’s struggles in fighting al Qaeda in the region. The Jamestown Foundation’s Akram Gizabi highlights the difficult situation Pakistan faces as the Taliban has deep ties in the tribal regions and local customs that work in al Qaeda’s…
-
Iraqis vs. al Qaeda, Continued
Al-Qaeda’s situation in Anbar province and the embattled city of Ramadi has slowly worsened since the deadly suicide strikes against police recruits. The attack did not deter Sunnis in Ramadi from volunteering for the police, and provoked a backlash against al Qaeda’s gruesome tactics. Sunnis in Anbar, including in the cities of Samarra and Ramadi, have vowed to fight al Qaeda, and six insurgent groups, including the Islamic Army of Iraq, declared war on the foreign terrorists. The latest news from Ramadi indicates a “3,000-strong militia has been created in the insurgent stronghold of Ramadi, central Iraq, to protect civilians…
-
Bangladeshi Terrorist Commander Believed Captured in India
The nature of al Qaeda and its International Islamic Front is a fount of confusion for most observers of the War on Terror. Often, al Qaeda is seen as a small group of Arab terrorists confined to the Middle East, with the main base of operations in Afghanistan prior to the country’s invasion in the fall of 2001. But the fact is al Qaeda is a global organization with extensive ties to regional Islamist groups in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. It is believed al Qaeda has networks established in well over sixty nations. But their ties to…
-
Faultlines in Iraq’s Islamist Insurgency
The location of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, al Qaeda in Iraq’s commander, and the state of the Islamist insurgency have been recent topics of conversation. Late last year, ThreatsWatch stated the focal point of the insurgency has shifted from Anbar province to the regions north of Baghdad. Today, Coalition forces believe Zarqawi is currently operating “in Diyala province near Baghdad…If his presence in Diyala is confirmed, it will reinforce the belief that violence follows him around Iraq.” The Sunday Times: reports that, according to “a leading insurgent who met [Zarqawi] two weeks ago”, Zarqawi “goes to sleep every night wearing a…
-
Developments in Damadola
pakistan afghanistan al-qaeda operations terrorism
-
Election Results; Iraqis Fight al Qaeda
The much anticipated results from the December 15th election are now available. Iraq the Model provides a full breakdown of the apportionment of seats in the new Iraqi parliament. The Shiite-dominated UIA has fallen ten votes short needed to independently form a government. They will now be required to reach out to an outside party to create a coalition government. The Kurdish Alliance netted 55 votes, the Sunni led Accord Front 44, Allawi’s Iraqi List 25 and al-Mutlaq’s Dialogue Front 11. Coalition forces anticipated attacks would coincide with the release of the election results, in an attempt to hijack the…
-
Two more al Qaeda Commanders believed killed in Damadola
Al Qaeda’s losses in Damadola may be even worse than thought last evening. Since the death of Abu Khabab al-Masri, Khalid Habib and Abd Rahman al-Maghribi were reported, two more al Qaeda commanders are believed to have been killed. Dan Darling provides a breakdown of the al Qaeda leaders thought to have been killed in the nightime airstrike: Abu Khabab al-Masri (WMD committee head) Abd Rahman al-Masri al-Maghribi (al-Zawahiri’s son-in-law, al Qaeda commander) Abu Ubeidah al-Masri (Kunar operations chief) Marwan al-Suri (Waziristan operations chief) Khalid Habib (southeastern Afghanistan commander) Abdul Hadi al-Iraqi (southwestern Afghanistan commander) Mr. Darling includes Abdul Hadi…
-
al Qaeda, Taliban Suicide Attacks Unpopular in Afghanistan
The Taliban and al Qaeda have renewed their suicide campaign in Afghanistan. The recent strike on al Qaeda leadership in Damadola is believed to have been the scene of a planning session to increase attacks in Afghanistan. The meeting was attended by senior Taliban and al Qaeda commanders, and al Qaeda lost three very senior operatives: the head of the WMD program and chief bomb maker, one of two al Qaeda commanders in Afghanistan, and the commander of al Qaeda in Pakistan. There have been three suicide attacks in the last week alone, two in Kandahar and one in Spin…
-
al Qaeda Commanders al-Magrabi and Habib killed in Damadola
The final results of from the airstrike in the Pakistani border town of Damadola are now known. In addition to Abu Khabab al-Masri, who was al Qaeda’s chief bomb maker, head of the WMD program, and former terror camp commander, two other al Qaeda commanders were killed in the strike. ABC News confirms that Khalid Habib [or Khaled al-Harbi] and Abdul Rehman al Magrabi perished in the attack. Khaled al-Harbi is al Qaeda’s operational commander in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Al-Harbi splits duty in Afghanistan with Abd al Hadi Al Iraqi, and both are considered “two of [al Qaeda’s] most able…
-
Abu Khabab al-Masri Killed in Pakistan Strike
The strike on the compound in Damadola, Pakistan, where Ayman al-Zawahiri. al Qaeda’s number two in Command, was believed to be attending a dinner to celebrate a Mulslim holiday, has netted at least one high-level al Qaeda operative. Pakistani intelligence has confirmed that Abu Khabab al-Masri, al Qaeda’s chief bomb maker and chemical weapons expert. Counterterrism expert Dan Darling reported that Masri ran al Qaeda’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Program, known as “Project al-Zabadi” and was likely involved in the foiled Amman WMD attack. After the U.S. ejected the Taliban from power in Afghanistan, Masri’s training camps were discovered.Tapes were…
-
Counterinsurgency Operations in Anbar
Since Coalition and Iraqi forces conducted Operations River Gate, Iron Fist and Steel Curtain on the western stretch of the Euphrates River Valley, the insurgency has been largely quiet in the region. The fruits of the year-long Anbar Campaign have allowed the joint Coalition and Iraqi forces to shift from overt offensive search & destroy and clear & hold operations to a more subtle counterinsurgency posture, which includes establishing and nurturing local governments and police forces, rebuilding civilian infrastructure and conducting security operations. This is what Colonel Stephen W. Davis, the Commander of Marine Regimental Combat Team – 2, refers…
-
Hunting Zawahiri and al Qaeda on the Border
Four days after the strike in the Pakistani border village of Damadola in the province of Bajaur, the status of Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s second in command, remains unknown. Zawahiri was purportedly invited to a dinner celebration for the Muslim holiday of Eid, but it is likely he sent senior aides to attend the dinner. A statement issued by the administration of Pakistan’s semi autonomous tribal regions indicates four or five of those killed in the strike were indeed “foreign terrorists” and that “between 10 and 12 foreign extremists had been invited to the dinner.” This refutes claims all of…
-
Security Incidents in Iraq
al Qaeda in Iraq has issued a statement claiming to “have set up an umbrella body to coordinate their fight against U.S.-led forces and the Iraqi government.” Notably excluded from this body of insurgent groups are Ansar al-Sunnah and the Iraq Islamic Army. A look at the reported security incidents in Iraq from the past week may give some insight as to why al Qaeda sees the need for further consolidation and coordination of the jihadi groups in Iraq. Reuters compiles the list of major security incidents in Iraq on a near-daily basis. The following list contains the incidents reported…
-
Zawahiri, and al Qaeda’s Future Plans
The fate of Ayman al-Zawahiri is still unknown after an airstrike in the Pakistani town of Damadola, near the Afghan border in the province of Bajaur. An Al-Arabiya source close to al Qaeda states Zawahiri is still alive, and Pakistani intelligence sources claim he escaped the attack. American intelligence officials are still eager to see the results of the DNA tests, and are unusually optimistic on the possibility Zawahiri was indeed killed in the strike. The fact that a team was able to gather remains indicates a certain level of sophistication and coordination in the strike, as Bajaur is a…
-
al Qaeda Attacked: Zawahiri Dead?
Unconfirmed reports from Pakistani and U.S. intelligence sources indicate a CIA airstrike was carried out against a compound in Pakistan which contained Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s number two in command, and four other unnamed senior al Qaeda leaders. Eighteen people are believed to have been killed in the strike. According to Reuters, “A Pakistani intelligence official said four U.S. aircraft had intruded into Pakistani airspace and fired four missiles.” The Counterterrorism Blog quotes a source which indicate ten missiles were fired. The aircraft are believed to have been predator drones, presumably armed with Hellfire missiles. The strike is said to…
-
The Iraqi Police and Continuing Operations
In the immediate wake of the double suicide attack on the police recruiting station in Ramadi, which claimed over eighty lives and injured over seventy, the Sunni police candidates lined back up to volunteer while the carnage was still fresh. The police continue to be a main target of al Qaeda’s intimidation campaign, as a concerted effort is being made to stand up the national and local police forces in 2006, just as training the Iraq Army was the main effort in 2005. On Thursday, one week after the horrific attack in Ramadi, another police recruitment drive was conducted. Captain…
-
al Qaeda vs. the Iraqi Insurgency
Fighting between al Qaeda and elements of the insurgency, and al Qaeda and tribal groups, has been occurring i n Iraq for some time. Reports have been trickling in for well over a year in incidences of resentment, infighting and outright open warfare between the groups. In the Qaim region of Western Iraq, along the Syrian border, members of the Albu Mahal tribe rose up against al Qaeda and their tribal ally. Further incidents of “red-on-red” fighting occurred in the cities of Husaybah and Mosul. In Ramadi, insurgents openly took up arms against al Qaeda for threatening their Shiite neighbors.…
-
A Look Ahead: Fighting the Insurgency in Iraq
The future fight in Iraq requires constant maintenance on all three fronts: political, military and economic. Yesterday, the White House issued a document titled Progress and the Work Ahead in Iraq. The fact sheet provides a clear, concise and honest look at the challenges in all three arenas for the year ahead. This document can be considered the summary of the “short term” goals of the National Strategy for Victory in Iraq. In the political realm, the emphasis is placed on the formation of a new Iraqi government. The desired outcome is the creation of a national unity government and…
-
The Waziristan Problem
A recent upsurge in violence in Pakistan’s tribal regions (or Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province) is a cause for great concern for the United States and her allies in the War on Terror. In the past, Pakistani forces conducted several offensives in the region, with mixed results. The tribal area of North Waziristan has seen an increase in clashes between Pakistani forces and pro al Qaeda and Taliban forces. A rocket attack against a Pakistani outpost in Sarbandji village near the town of Miran Shah killed seven Pakistani soldiers. Pakistan claims fourteen “terrorists were killed when…
-
al Qaeda Attacks the Iraqi Police
al Qaeda has pulled off yet another successful attack on Iraq’s security forces. Two suicide bombers disguised as senior police officers penetrated the security in an Interior Ministry compound in east Baghdad. Reuters reports the bombers would have entered the actual Interior Ministry building but not for the cautious eyes of Iraqi policemen; “Once inside the checkpoint, Interior Ministry guards became suspicious of one of the attackers because of his bulk, and shot at him, detonating his explosive belt. The second bomber then blew himself up, causing more carnage.” Over 28 were murdered and 25 wounded in the dual suicide…
-
The Easy Way
The Washington Post has printed corrections to the article Bloggers, Money Now Weapons in Information War – U.S. Recruits Advocates to the Front, Pays Iraqi TV Stations for Coverage: A Dec. 26 article misstated the accreditation of Web journalist Bill Roggio when he was embedded with U.S. Marines in Iraq. He was accredited by the Weekly Standard. The article said that Roggio was embedded with the Marines at the time of publication, but Roggio had returned to the United States. The article also described Roggio as a retired soldier; he served four years on active duty and two years with…
-
Blowback from the Ramadi Attack
The city of Ramadi is the last bastion of the insurgency and al Qaeda in Anbar province. Yesterday’s deadly attack on prospective police recruits waiting outside the recruiting center may go a long way to erode that support. The Washington Post reports “at least 80 Sunni Arabs were killed and 61 wounded” by the suicide bomber, and residents of Ramadi are furious. Tribal leaders, who are very influential in the Iraqi culture, were killed during the attacks. The responsibility for the attack is being placed directly on al Qaeda’s shoulders. “Neither the Americans nor the Shiites have any benefit in…
-
al Qaeda Counteroffensive
al Qaeda and the insurgency began the New Year with an anemic offensive of thirteen car bombs in Baghdad and northern Iraq which resulted in only twenty casualties, no deaths. The past two days have seen a dramatically increased level of effectiveness in the employment of suicide bombers and attacks on infrastructure. Over 160 Iraqis have been killed and hundreds wounded in over eight suicide and car bomb attacks in Baghdad, Ramadi, Najaf, Kerbala and Muqdadiyah. Oil production and gasoline distribution in northern has been disrupted by effective attacks. There are three main foci to these attacks: Shiites, Sunnis willing…
-
Ramadi Operations Continue
Coalition and Iraqi forces continue to plug away against the insurgency in Ramadi. The latest operation, Spider Web, was directed at the Jazerra region north of Ramadi, and was designed to clear the region and establish a “permanent overwatch, in the form of a combat outpost and tactical strong points.” The operation was conducted by two battalions of Iraqi troops from the 1st and 2nd Battalions, 3rd Brigade, 1st Division. Operation Spider Web is the latest in a series of operations that began in October with Mountaineers, and continued over the next three months with Panthers, Bruins, Lions, Tigers, Shank,…
-
Global War, Global Enemy
In the current environment of politicizing the War on Terror, it is often lost that the fight against al Qaeda and its global allies of the International Islamic Front far exceeds the scope of operations in Afghanistan or Iraq. The presentation on the major al Qaeda attacks worldwide reinforces the global nature of the fight, but al Qaeda’s statements must also be looked at as well to obtain a full understanding of their strategy. They provide a constant reminder of the nature of the enemy. Two recently released statements, one from the recently captured al Qaeda commander Abu Musab al-Suri…
-
A Failed Offensive
The insurgency kicked off the New Year with a coordinated suicide/roadside bomb offensive in Baghdad and northern Iraq. Thirteen bombs total were detonated; nine bombs in Baghdad alone over the span of three hours; two in Kirkuk; one in Tikrit; and one in Muqdadiyah. The targets were Iraqi Security Forces and U.S. Soldiers. Will the attacks were coordinated, they weren’t very effective. Twenty were wounded, and the majority were civilians. Two of the attacks appeared to be manned by suicide bombers, who killed themselves with very little to show. The rest of the attacks appeared to be bombs planted within…
