Manhunt continues in Boston, as analysts turn to social media for clues

The manhunt for one of the two chief suspects in this week’s Boston Marathon bombings has continued throughout the day. And as the younger of two brothers is pursued by authorities, analysts are looking to social media pages for clues about their motivations.

Tamerlan Tsarnaev, 26, was killed in the middle of night. The Associated Press and NBC News have reported that he is believed to have traveled abroad for six or seven months last year, flying from New York City to Russia. The details of Tamerlan Tsarnaev’s life and travels remain wide open, as the story has evolved throughout the week.

Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, 19, remains at large, having evaded law enforcement officials for the better part of a day. Other possible accomplices may be on the run as well.

According to various media reports, the Tsarnaev family is from Chechnya, or at least the Caucasus.

Journalists and counterterrorism analysts have pointed to a few social media pages that appear to have been created by the Tsarnaevs. Any analysis of these pages is fraught with difficulty, as fake Twitter accounts and other pages have been created since the brothers were first publicly identified by name.

As BuzzFeed has reported, one YouTube page appears to have been created by Tamerlan Tsarnaev. The video includes a link to a video titled, “The Emergence of Prophecy: The Black Flags From Khorasan.”

The video deals with a key part of jihadist mythology: That one of the most significant battles fought against the “infidels” will take place in the Khorasan, a geographic area that includes parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.

The Khorasan is considered by jihadis to be the place where they will inflict the first defeat against their enemies in the Muslim version of Armageddon. The final battle is to take place in the Levant – Israel, Syria, and Lebanon. Mentions of the Khorasan have begun to increase in al Qaeda’s propaganda.

This alone, of course, does not make the brothers al Qaeda operatives. If the YouTube page was Tamerlan Tsarnaev’s, then the video, along with other posts, indicates at least a level of sympathy for the jihadist ideology.

The SITE Intelligence Group reports that one of the playlists on the YouTube page was titled “Terrorists.” The videos in the playlist have been taken down, but SITE says more than one of them is “related to Dagestan” and were initially uploaded to YouTube by the “Vilayat Dagestan,” indicating jihadists disseminated the videos.

The investigation into the Tsarnaevs and their possible ties abroad continues.

Parts of this account were first reported at The Weekly Standard.

Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for FDD's Long War Journal.

Tags: , ,

10 Comments

  • mike merlo says:

    ‘it’ sounds like its time to start taking a very ‘close’ look at the Tsarnaevs’ father & other family members, friends, acquaintances & ‘associates’

  • adam says:

    I sincerely doubt the family members knew what was going to happen, Mr. Merlo.

  • blert says:

    There is some buzz that these fellows did, in fact, not Americanize at all.
    They did not have any Americans as friends, acquaintances, yes.
    There is no buzz about girl friends, for example.
    Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, 19, was bright enough to merit a scholarship — yet in Boston, a sea of single college age women, he seems to have had no girl friend.
    Which puts him in the INTJ category — just like the unabomber — introverted, bright — and probably on track to enter a STEM occupation.
    This was also the profile of M. Atta and more than a few of the worst fanatics known.
    They are both bright — and self alienating — from their introversion. They bench-mark their values against a very tight group of similar like-minded souls — extremists as it happens.
    In the heart of multicultural America — they chose nihilist hatred — attacking exactly those most inclined towards sympathy for Chechens.
    ============
    Under the Czars and Communists citizens needed permission to move around the country. Chechen anarchy was one of the primary motivations for that harsh policy.
    The capital of Chechnya is Grozny. The Wiki on Chechnya is able to go from start to finish without mentioning Grozny. (!)
    IIRC, Grozny is Russian for “Terrible.” It’s not a local language term. It refers to events more than two centuries ago when the Czar fought there. In an age of muzzle-loaders, the Russian Army lost thousands of men conquering Grozny.
    This campaign was but a subset of Moscow’s drive to push the Muslim Turks south across the mountains. While not covered in Western histories, the Ottoman Turks had occupied southern Russia all the way across the north of the Black Sea. One could think of this as the eastern Muslim wing — versus the western occupation of southern France and the Iberian nations. In both cases, the trend reversal took centuries — and near continuous warfare.
    (Hudnas instead of peace treaties)
    Chechens were famed in Soviet times as the ‘wet work’ crew within the KGB. To an astonishing degree, the KGB ‘farmed out’ their hits to Chechen details. In Soviet political culture, Chechens were equivalent to Sicilian Mafioso.
    If it weren’t for the KGB giving them bloody employment — they wouldn’t have even had permission to roam the country.
    The KGB-Chechen-Communist Party corruption linkage is detailed in “The Soviet Mafia” by Arkady Vaksberg.
    ISBN 0-312-07135-3
    Vaksberg is sort of the ‘Edward R. Murrow’ of the Soviet Union. In his tome you’ll find out about the dirty financial linen in Brezhnev’s closet. Like Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez, he played the high politician — while his crew stuffed his bank accounts something crazy. (Black market profiteering in bananas and strawberries and oranges — box car sized, to boot.)

  • Matt Dubuque says:

    Wow. I’m so gratified you posted this article!
    I too came across this video on his youtube site and have been amazed at how many news organizations are still reluctant to describe these two as al Qaeda sympathizers, many asserting at most that they are merely interested in “Chechen nationalist” causes.
    I thought a few things about this “Black Flags from Khorasan” video were noteworthy.
    Firstly, I make my living doing film and have recently mastered some pretty complex special effects workflows in 3D graphics with Adobe After Effects.
    Over the past few years, several commentators have referred to the high “production values” among al Qaeda’s video production wing known as “as Sahab” and this generally refers to some pretty standard spinning 3D graphics as well as intermediate color grading that matches the tones of different shots in a video. We routinely see these spinning 3D graphics on ESPN, CNN, etc which look pretty spectacular for the layperson, but are pretty routine for any motion graphics professional.
    But when I saw this stupid “Black Flags from Khorasan” video, I was astounded at some of the graphics I saw and it is only upon some reflection that I figured out how they produced some of the special effects seen within it.
    These guys have some world class talent in this area and we need to shut that down.
    This made it even more apparent to me that there is some serious funding and cash behind the production of these videos and once again private Saudi sources seem a likely culprit.
    I don’t understand why YouTube does not take videos like this down and I posted a comment as “onehundredtrees” on this video urging its removal and specifically complained about its presence to YouTube.
    My best estimate is that there are at least a few hundred people employed directly or indirectly by Western governments to monitor and disrupt al Qaeda’s and associated jihadi websites and presences.
    A few things come to mind about this particular video.
    Why are there no negative comments about it? This video has tens of thousands of views, wreaking all sorts of havoc on vulnerable populations and our online presence combating these jihadis either needs to insist that they be taken down or at least post competent rebuttals for people to read.
    Take the whole concept of Islam for example.
    There are two sources of authority in Islam, namely the Koran and the “haddith” which is an enormous compilation of all the commentary and chatter about the Koran.
    The counterpart to the “haddith” in Christianity might be all the collected writings of Billy Graham, David Koresh from the Branch Davidians, Pat Robertson, St. Augustine, the book of Mormon, the Christian Science works of Mary Baker Eddy, etc.
    In other words the haddith is far broader than the Koran and every Muslim knows that there are materials in the haddith that are NOT worth following at all and others that help illuminate what the Koran is all about.
    Fast forward to this video. It contains NOTHING quoting the Koran except the apparent reference to the “black flag from Khorasan” but all sorts of crap and gibberish from various maniacs and fanatics in the haddith.
    This needs to be pointed out to the impressionable types watching these videos and indeed I made precisely such a comment.
    Instead, our psyops really seem to be missing the basics here.
    I’m not a Muslim and I do find some parts of the Koran objectionable, but not nearly as horrific as large swathes of the haddith, which is where al Qaeda and other jihadis find “justificiation” for their butchery, just as the “prophecies” of David Koresh inspired the weirdo Branch Davidian cult in Waco that is a FAR cry from anything most Christians believe.
    So we need to be pointing out these basic distinctions between the Koran and the haddith in our effort to win the war of ideas with al Qaeda.
    Such a commentary is what the overwhelming majority of Muslims find important and persuasive and could even have prevented or slowed down these Chechen kids from destroying their own and so many other lives.

  • Cass says:

    I don’t see how 2 guys could have made all the explosive devices without family or a handler knowing. It begs the imagination. What I think happened tonight was that they were cut loose from a larger body because they were overconfident on Monday, let themselves be identified, and had no Plan B, endangering the others. I saw that the FBI removed computers and files from their sister’s house in West New York, NJ. Maybe a fishing expedition, but no word on removing materials from the parents, uncle, the other sister, or other close relatives and friends. I think these were the operatives, and the logistics/intel cut them loose.

  • Iranian says:

    Al-Qaeda and their dupes evidently require a few lessons in Iranian history. Khorasan (place of the rising Sun) is the north eastern region of Iran. It was a pre-Islamic province and military quarter of the Sassanid empire (the Sassanid empire was divided into four zones). It has nothing to do with Islam or Arabs. Its name is a Zoroastrian one from the Middle Persian language.
    Also, the old Khorasan did not include any part of what is now Pakistan. I dont know why but Pakistanis generally seem quite desperate to rewrite and fabricate their own history in a vain effort to make themselves appear to fall under Persian and Central Asia history rather than that of the Indian subconinent and Hindu history which is where they belong. Pakistanis have nothing to do with Khorasan and the great history and culture of this eastern province of Persians and Iran.
    Today, Khorasan exists only within the territory of modern Iran and is administered as 3 provinces. The remaining parts of what were once Khorasan now lie in parts of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. However, none of the aforementioned countries internal administrative areas retain the name Khorasan. The name now can only be found within Iran.
    I would also like the readers to know that Khorasan is a region that historically produced some of the greatest Persian poets, artists and musicians. It is not a region that historically has anything to do with bogus Arabo-Islamic doomsday prophecies and Islamic fundamentalism and terror.

  • gb says:

    These two were of above average intelligence. If the older one received adaquate training while in his homeland, there’s no telling how long they had in gathering the necessary components and assembling the bombs and weapons. It’s been a surreal couple of days here in Boston. This marathon was the first I’ve attended and we were given VIP passes at the finish line by a friend from John Hancock. Ultimately the first bomb blast was right across Boylston from my seats in the Bleachers. Fortunately I was walking up Dartmouth when it all went down. Anyway, the younger was definately being led by his older brother, as he idolized the man. I don’t know to what extent the Chechans have immigrated to the Boston area, but it seems the older of the two led a pretty insulated existance. Having said all that I wouldn’t be at all shocked if additional arrests are made. I do find it fascinating that the surviving terrorist, was not Marandized, thus effectively eliminating his civil rights, and identifying him as an enemy combatant on American soil. First time I’ve ever heard of it, but I def approve.

  • mike merlo says:

    @adam
    and yet the Mother of the Bombers is on record of having known about interest in her sons by the FBI & information is now surfacing that other member(s?) of the Bombers extended family were concerned for the Bomber brothers ‘drift’ into ‘Islamic Extremism’
    @blert
    “they chose nihilist hatred” = Spot On
    @Iranian
    Pakistan = ‘Mad Magazine’ Spy vs Spy

  • Adam says:

    blert: I don’t think that’s true. The younger brother was said to have been quite popular. He didn’t lack for friends at all. This is an odd case in that he lived the life of a typical “partying” American college student. His school buds had no idea he was anything but a great guy.

  • @ Iranian
    “Al-Qaeda and their dupes evidently require a few lessons in Iranian history.”
    I think you are falling into the trap of taking a very focused and apologist view of the history of the Khorasan region ‘Iranian’. Now I’m not you’re wrong by any means, I think your comment is well informed and interesting but I think we have to remember that ‘history’ isn’t entirely consistent when it comes to fact and ‘truths’.
    Ibn Khaldun says that history is “…a discipline widely cultivated among nations and races. It is eagerly sought after. The men in the street, the ordinary people, aspire to know it. Kings and leaders vie for it…Blind trust in tradition is an inherited trait in human beings” (Khaldun and Rosenthal 5 ‘The Muqaddimah’). Paraphrasing another quote, history is speculation and therefore rooted in philosophy.
    Khorasan supposedly encompassed not only a portion of eastern Iran, but also areas of Afghanistan and some of the Central Asian republics. In regards to al-Qaeda and its own historical narrative (it’s sales pitch which I like to call), Khorasan is important because al-Qaeda essentially became an organization when bin Laden came to Afghanistan and was courted by the Taliban in 1996; al-Qaeda raised its ‘Black Banners’ when bin Laden established a center of gravity (a foothold) in Afghanistan, or today as the jihadi media likes to portray, modern day ‘Khorasan’. Afghanistan was also portrayed as the new ‘Medina’ by bin Laden as he ’emigrated’ (he called it a ‘hajj’) from the Sudan; the Taliban became the ‘Ansar’, or the helpers who sheltered Muhammad when evading the Meccans. al-Qaeda writes its own ‘Islamic’ history by intertwining it with today’s events to show the ‘Ummah’ the world and its enemies have not changed. Those who oppose the political progression of Islam will be portrayed as Jews, Crusaders, Mongols, ‘Apostates’,etc, who are the consistent and historical enemies of Islam. al-Qaeda’s perception of history has birthed a beguiling propaganda machine. All this applies to their interpretation of the Qur’an and Hadith as well; in their worldview, there is no need to look else where in the Qur’an outside the ‘Sword Verses’ until the world submits to their vision of the religion of Islam and their idea of Sharia’.

Iraq

Islamic state

Syria

Aqap

Al shabaab

Boko Haram

Isis