Turkey has steadily increased its foothold in the central Sahel by providing arms, security assistance, and more to regional juntas. Similarly, The Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), Al Qaeda’s branch for the Sahel and West Africa, is on its own upward trajectory, standing as one of the region’s most dominant violent actors. The jihadist group’s external messaging suggests it perceives Turkey to be an obstacle as it seeks to expand its territorial control and influence.

Over the weekend, fierce fighting between Tuareg rebels and the Malian military, backed by mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner Group, was reported in the extreme north of Mali. The Russian mercenaries suffered dozens of casualties—the group’s largest loss to date inside Africa.

Over the last two weeks, al Qaeda’s West African branch has made a more concerted effort to advance closer to the Malian capital of Bamako.
