The kidnapping of Juan Pablo Guanipa on February 8 raised worries that Venezuela’s Maduro-era repression apparatus remains active, even as US and Venezuelan authorities moved forward on political and economic reforms. Among these developments were the passage of a hydrocarbons law that ended the state’s monopoly on the oil industry and corresponding US sanctions relief.
In the week following Washington’s arrest of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, regime figures like interim President Delcy Rodriguez, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello are jockeying for position and deciding how to move forward. Rodriguez and US President Donald Trump have offered conflicting views on who holds true authority, while the US has provided no established plans for a transition or elections. Simultaneously, the US blockade on sanctioned oil tankers remains in force, and Trump is making efforts to secure 30-50 million barrels of Venezuela’s crude oil while trying to convince US oil companies to invest.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan long served as a key external backer of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, providing diplomatic protection, economic engagement, and sanctions-evasion pathways that helped sustain Maduro’s regime amid international isolation. Following Maduro’s capture by US forces on January 3, Turkey’s past role as a potential haven and logistical lifeline may come under sharper scrutiny, though Erdogan has notably avoided public criticism of Washington.
On January 3, at around 2 am, the United States military began a wave of airstrikes on the Venezuelan capital of Caracas and surrounding areas. Major military installations were targeted, including Venezuela’s largest army base, Fuerte Tiuna, and the La Carlota airfield. At around 4:30 am, US President Donald Trump wrote that “The United States of America successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country.”
The United States has significantly escalated tensions with the regime of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in recent weeks. After US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced “Operation Southern Spear” on November 13, the US sent the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to the Caribbean. The US also captured a sanctioned Venezuelan oil tanker and issued a Notice to Air Missions cautioning that civilian aircraft face a “potentially hazardous situation” when flying over Venezuelan territory. In response to US strikes on speedboats allegedly operated by Venezuelan “narco-terrorists,” France and the UK have diplomatically challenged the US.
In 2020, the US Treasury Department sanctioned Al Mustafa International University, followed by Canada’s Foreign Ministry designating the organization in 2022. Ostensibly an international Islamic school, Al Mustafa is a front for Iranian terrorism and propaganda with a proven track record of involvement in terror plots, including a recent IRGC scheme to assassinate Israel’s ambassador to Mexico.
US President Donald Trump has imposed unprecedented military pressure on Venezuela during his second term, including kinetic strikes on alleged drug speedboats. However, this largest buildup of American military power in the Caribbean since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 didn’t happen in a vacuum. The US has applied various forms of pressure to counter the authoritarian turn of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro since he took power in 2013.