FDD Senior Fellow Edmund Fitton-Brown joins Bill Roggio to assess the current state of the Iran War. From the dual blockade in the Strait of Hormuz to the failed peace negotiations, they consider: Why did Pakistan step up as mediator? Can Tehran stretch the Houthis for even more leverage in the Red Sea? Has the war pushed the Gulf States closer together?
A US effort to seize Kharg Island, the Islamic Republic’s critical economic hub, would be a high-risk operation that would likely entail significant costs for little gain. Kharg is much more likely to become a liability than an asset, drawing the Trump administration closer to the war of attrition it is trying to avoid.
Bill Roggio sits down with shipping expert Sal Mercogliano to break down Tehran’s latest act of war: turning the world’s most critical shipping chokepoint into leverage.
Should Iran have taken the decision to attack civilian vessels that carry oil, it could represent one way to do damage to global oil shipments without inviting massive retaliation. Such a move would be consistent with Iran’s highly graduated approach to escalation and desire to respond to the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign.