The US is losing leverage in Somalia as frustration with Mogadishu threatens critical African Union support and risks strengthening Al Shabaab’s hold. In Mali, renewed US airstrikes against JNIM raise a parallel concern—whether air power alone, without a ground strategy or political reform, can contain the group’s advance. Bill Roggio and Caleb Weiss examine these dynamics across the Sahel and the assess the murky state of Al Qaeda.

During his message for Eid al Adha, Ali Mohamad Rage, Shabaab’s top spokesman, congratulated the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), Al Qaeda’s branch in West Africa, for its recent victories in Mali. Rage also praised Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and denounced American and Turkish activities in Somalia.

Across Mali, jihadis are seizing territory, encircling the capital, and pushing a fragile regime toward collapse. Backed by a sprawling network and in an effort years in the making, Al Qaeda’s Sahel affiliate has launched its most ambitious offensive yet—one that could redraw the map of West Africa. Bill Roggio and Caleb Weiss unpack what’s going on.

Al Qaeda’s Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and its allies in the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) conducted a massive, widespread offensive in Mali, from Bamako to Kidal, on Saturday. Several cities fell under the complete or partial control of the militant alliance, while others, including Mali’s capital, remain under intense pressure.

The Islamic State has officially claimed last week’s assault on Niger’s Diori Hamani International Airport in the capital of Niamey, which also hosts the military Air Base 101. Niger claims the assault was repelled, with Russia’s Africa Corps mercenary group also taking credit for the defense.

Kevin Rideout, an American Christian missionary in Niger’s capital of Niamey since 2010, was abducted from his home by suspected jihadists just 100 yards from Niger’s Presidential Palace. Regional security in the Sahel continues to falter as both the Islamic State and Al Qaeda continue to surge.

Turkey has steadily increased its foothold in the central Sahel by providing arms, security assistance, and more to regional juntas. Similarly, The Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), Al Qaeda’s branch for the Sahel and West Africa, is on its own upward trajectory, standing as one of the region’s most dominant violent actors. The jihadist group’s external messaging suggests it perceives Turkey to be an obstacle as it seeks to expand its territorial control and influence.

The Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), al Qaeda’s branch for West Africa, has publicized its da’wah (proselytizing) activities in local communities in Mali and Burkina Faso. Photos released by the group document its men delivering religious lectures to locals in the southern Mali region of Kayes and Burkina Faso along the border with Niger.

Over the weekend, fierce fighting between Tuareg rebels and the Malian military, backed by mercenaries from Russia’s Wagner Group, was reported in the extreme north of Mali. The Russian mercenaries suffered dozens of casualties—the group’s largest loss to date inside Africa.

The photos act as a representation of JNIM’s training programs across the Sahel.

Both al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims, al-Qaeda’s branches in North and West Africa, respectively, have openly praised Hamas for its mass killings of Jews in recent days.

Abu Yasir al-Jaza’iri, an Algerian ideologue in al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, offers the group’s harshest rebuke of the Islamic State to date.

Several communities in Mali’s northern Menaka Region have turned to al Qaeda’s men in the face of extreme pressure and violence from the Islamic State’s local wing.

Over the last two weeks, al Qaeda’s West African branch has made a more concerted effort to advance closer to the Malian capital of Bamako.

German national Jorg Lange was finally freed after being held captive by Islamic State militants in the Sahel since 2018.

This is the third such JNIM claim of responsibility for an attack inside northern Togo.

The two claims of responsibility now confirms that both al Qaeda and the Islamic State are active inside the small West African country.

Almost 30 people have been killed in a series of jihadist attacks – many of which happened near simultaneously – across northern Togo over the last few days.

At least three Italians, one Polish citizen, and one American have been kidnapped in the Sahel over the last two months. At least five other Westerners remain in captivity in the region – all of which are held by jihadist groups.

While Togo suffered its first ever jihadist attack in Nov. 2021, yesterday’s large assault represents the first loss of life from such violence in the small West African state. At least 8 Togolese troops were killed and 13 others wounded in an attack on a base and subsequent IED blast.

In a recent statement released online, Jamaat Ansar al Muslimeen, better known as Ansaru, confirmed it maintains its allegiance to al Qaeda after reportedly re-pledging allegiance to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in 2020.

As violence continues to spread across the Sahel, particularly in Burkina Faso, the violence is now seeping into the states of Ivory Coast, Togo, and Benin.

Coming roughly a month after France reported it had killed Abu Walid al Sahrawi, the Islamic State’s leader in the Sahel, the Islamic State itself has finally subtly confirmed the reports. The jihadist group has not publicly named a successor.

Northern Ivory Coast has seen a substantial increase in suspected jihadist attacks since March of this year. Much of the violence is emanating from southwestern Burkina Faso, where al Qaeda’s Katibat Macina is expanding.
