Author Archives: Janatan Sayeh

Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies focused on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional malign influence.

Israel widens air campaign, hits Iran’s critical infrastructure, propaganda hubs (June 15–16 updates)

| June 16, 2025

As Israel expands its precision strikes across Iran, the US has publicly denied involvement in Israel’s campaign while quietly ramping up military deployments. With Iran’s missile stockpile dwindling and its top regime officials either dead or in hiding, Israel’s campaign is now targeting critical infrastructure and propaganda hubs. Meanwhile, Tehran has intensified a domestic crackdown, even as public unrest grows louder.

Israel targets Iran’s nuclear sites and senior military figures

| June 13, 2025

Israel launched a sweeping campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and senior military leaders, with strikes reported at Natanz, Fordow, and across Tehran. Mossad-led covert operations neutralized key assets and personnel, while Iran vowed retaliation and also blamed the US for the assault.

Iran’s armed forces escalate threats as Khamenei rejects latest US proposal

| June 5, 2025

Amid deadlocked nuclear talks, Iran’s military leadership issued new threats on June 4, vowing to confront the US and Israel with force. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials rejected Washington’s latest proposal as unacceptable, while Tehran repositioned air defenses around nuclear sites and warned of retaliation if Israel strikes unilaterally.

Iran named by Finland as foreign intelligence threat

| May 30, 2025

Finland officially named Iran as a state actively conducting espionage operations within its borders, a designation previously reserved only for Russia and China. The regime in Tehran has accelerated terror plots and intelligence operations across the US, Europe, and Israel.

Analysis: Iran braces for potential conflict as 5th round of US negotiations ends inconclusively

| May 23, 2025

Amid a stalled fifth round of negotiations in Rome, Iran has grown increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of reaching a deal with the United States. Tehran has responded to reported Israeli strike preparations with warnings of retaliation and appeals to the United Nations. Clashes with Israel in 2024 have left Iran militarily exposed, prompting Tehran to fear further escalation.

IRGC missiles

Iran braces for possible US attack amid proxy setbacks

| April 8, 2025

Amid mounting proxy losses and a major US military buildup across the Middle East, Iran has placed its armed forces on high alert and warned neighboring states against facilitating a potential American strike. Tehran is suffering setbacks in Iraq and Yemen while ramping up deterrence through inflammatory propaganda.

Houthi missiles

Iranian personnel leave Yemen as US strikes intensify

| April 3, 2025

Iran has reportedly ordered its military personnel to leave Yemen amidst the growing US bombing campaign. The move reflects a broader pattern of the Islamic Republic recalibrating its regional strategy in response to the Trump administration’s moves to curtail Tehran’s influence in the Middle East and threats to potentially strike Iran’s nuclear sites.

IRGC speedboats

Iran strengthens its military in the Persian Gulf

| March 25, 2025

Amid rising tensions with the US, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has increased its military presence in the Persian Gulf. Over recent months, Iran has intensified exercises on islands located along a vital maritime corridor for global energy transit. Over one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Persian Gulf, making it a key geopolitical hotspot.

Iran special forces

Iran’s ties to Western organized crime networks

| March 17, 2025

Tehran’s ambitions extend beyond backing Shia and Sunni Islamist groups in the Middle East. On March 13, the US Treasury Department sanctioned Sweden’s Foxtrot gang for its ties to the Iranian regime, underscoring Tehran’s longstanding practice of cultivating criminal networks across Europe and the Americas to assassinate dissidents and target American, European, and Israeli interests.

Abol Korkor Iranian dissident

Iran cracks down on armed nationalist group

| March 11, 2025

In a rare escalation, a group of armed men with nationalistic aspirations clashed with regime security forces in the southwestern city of Izeh. Livestreamed footage captures the final moments of four surrounded men, one of whom takes his own life rather than face arrest.

PKK demonstration

Analysis: Iran’s loss is Turkey’s gain

| March 5, 2025

Tehran’s recent setbacks have paved the way for Ankara’s ascent. The Ankara-backed Azerbaijan’s triumph over Tehran-backed Armenia, Turkish-supported militias outmaneuvering Iran’s influence in Syria, and now, the unraveling of the Iran-backed PKK further tilts the balance in Turkey’s favor.

Khamenei propaganda

Analysis: Is Iran poising itself for escalation with Israel?

| February 25, 2025

Recent statements by Islamic Republic officials indicate Tehran’s staunch commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and achieving “final victory.” These threats may signal a renewed escalation in the region after Israel’s crippling blow to Iran’s missile arsenal and the collapse of the Islamic Republic’s Syrian ally.

Islamic State map

Analysis: From Afghanistan to America: the rising reach of the Islamic State Khorasan Province

| February 17, 2025

Four years after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the threat posed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has expanded beyond the region, now endangering both America and Europe. With the group actively recruiting and transferring fighters across borders, regional actors such as the Taliban, Iran, Tajikistan, and Pakistan have proven unable to curb its growth.

Iran intelligence agent wanted poster

Analysis: Unpacking Iran’s counterintelligence apparatus

| February 6, 2025

Iran’s intelligence network is not a monolithic entity but a web of competing and cooperating factions that execute the regime’s global ambitions. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Quds Force, and Ministry of Intelligence each play distinct yet overlapping roles in conducting assassinations, abductions, and sabotage operations worldwide. While institutional rivalries persist, their shared objective—suppressing dissent and expanding Iran’s geopolitical reach—ensures continued collaboration.

Iranian air defense system and missile

Analysis: Tehran’s triad: propaganda, proxies, and preparedness

| January 7, 2025

The Tehran regime faces significant challenges, including the diminished influence of its regional proxies and the potential for an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities. In response, the Islamic Republic has devised a three-pronged strategy: bolstering morale through propaganda, conducting extensive military drills as a deterrent, and amplifying support for its remaining proxies.

Khameni and Assad meeting

Analysis: Iran never gave up on Assad; it simply failed to protect him

| December 13, 2024

The sudden collapse of the Islamic Republic’s closest state-actor ally stunned the world as Syrian rebels captured Damascus in just 11 days after launching a new wave of insurgency. To deflect this humiliating defeat, Iranian officials have claimed that the Tehran-Damascus alliance had been weakening and that Iran no longer aimed to preserve the Assad dynasty. However, leaks from Tehran and insights into Iranian regional strategy tell a different story: Iran was incapable of safeguarding the Syrian regime, and its collapse has sparked internal divisions among Iranian officials.

Assad sign Syria

Analysis: Tehran on the back foot: Proxy struggles and Assad’s dilemma

| December 2, 2024

Just a year ago, the Islamic Republic was on the offensive as it used its proxies to launch coordinated attacks on Israel from six fronts to demonstrate the extent of its regional influence. Now, the momentum has shifted. Israeli operations have severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, Syrian rebels backed by Turkey wage a relentless war against Assad, and the United States targets Iranian-backed militia bases across Syria.

Hezbollah supporters celebrating

Analysis: Iran hails ceasefire as an opportunity to rebuild Hezbollah

| November 27, 2024

With Israel and Hamas having reached a ceasefire agreement, the rhetoric coming from Tehran is far from de-escalatory. Military and civilian officials within the Islamic Republic continue to underscore their commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and have reiterated threats of launching a third phase of the “True Promise” operation against Israel.

Analysis: Leaks and spy rings merely delay the inevitable Israeli operation

| October 21, 2024

Despite allegedly leaked documents from US agencies and Tehran’s ongoing intelligence operations aimed at disrupting an Israeli attack, Iran is bracing itself for an operation targeting its nuclear facilities. The situation has only intensified after Hezbollah’s botched attempt to assassinate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Iranian military flags

Analysis: The ‘How’ over the ‘What:’ Israel’s dilemma beyond target selection in Iran

| October 18, 2024

Israel’s war cabinet has reportedly agreed on what Iranian targets to strike, so the question now is what method it will employ to carry out the attacks to effectively deter Tehran without escalating into a full-scale war. In doing so, Israel has two choices: to either publicly humiliate the regime or launch a series of covert attacks, and the latter is less likely to warrant Tehran’s retaliation.

Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh

Analysis: ‘Axis of Resistance’ or ‘Axis of Espionage?’ Iran’s struggles to staff leadership

| October 15, 2024

The appointment of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh as Hezbollah’s “supervisor” underscores the growing challenges faced by Iran and its proxies amid Israel’s military and intelligence operations. The inability to establish stable leadership within Hezbollah not only reflects Israel’s tactical successes but also reveals deep fractures within the Axis of Resistance. The heightened paranoia among Iranian leaders suggests a precarious future for the Islamic Republic’s efforts to maintain control over its oldest proxy.

Iran targets in Israel graphic

Analysis: Iran threatens Israeli civil and nuclear infrastructure on October 7 anniversary

| October 7, 2024

On the anniversary of the October 7 terrorist attack, the Islamic Republic has pledged to target Israeli cities and critical infrastructure while US and Israeli officials consider their options in response to Tehran’s second ballistic missile assault. With Israel’s air defense capabilities demonstrating superiority over Iranian missiles and the military setbacks suffered by the regime’s proxies, Tehran has increasingly diminished its leverage over Jerusalem. This shifting dynamic offers Israel a strategic opportunity to target the regime’s nuclear facilities, addressing the primary existential threat it faces.

Hezbollah flag

Analysis: Tehran’s damage control tactics amidst Hezbollah’s setbacks

| September 25, 2024

The Iranian regime’s current strategy seems focused on damage control, as it believes maintaining a foundation allows it to eventually regain influence in southern Lebanon. The Islamic Republic aims to create an image of total warfare through a series of calculated proxy attacks. This approach not only projects strength to its supporters but also bets on the possibility that the United States will pressure Israel to stop its strikes against Iranian militias.