After 12 days of war—and the death of Iran’s supreme leader—the Islamic Republic is under unprecedented pressure. Bill Roggio and Janatan Sayeh assess this initial phase of the war, the gap between Washington and Jerusalem’s goals, and the decisive question still looming over Tehran: will the Iranian people finish the job?
Many Americans believed a conflict with the Islamic Republic would be a new war.
But as Bill Roggio and Behnam Ben Taleblu explain, the truth is simpler: this war began in 1979. Now, the question isn’t how the war started. It’s how it ends. Is this a limited war to degrade the Tehran regime — or the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic?
Reports following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran say that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead. If true, is regime decapitation the opening salvo of the fall of the Islamic Republic? David Daoud and Joe Truzman are back with Bill Roggio to unpack what we know, what we don’t know, and whether this is the moment that reshapes the Middle East.
In its latest report on the state of global jihad, the UN reveals that Al Qaeda is expanding but doesn’t mention one critical fact: the jihadist group’s leader is based in Iran. Bill Roggio is joined by his FDD colleague Edmund Fitton-Brown—who previously oversaw the UN’s sanctions and monitoring team that produces these assessments—to unpack what the report gets right, what it misses, and why Al Qaeda—not the Islamic State—remains the most dangerous long-term jihadist threat facing the West.
In Part 37 of Big Yikes in Syria, Bill Roggio and Ahmad Sharawi unpack yet another round of bad alliances and strategic failure in the war-torn country.
According to the Taliban’s self-assessment (what could go wrong), Afghanistan is “stable” — but according to reality, it’s not. Terrorist groups still operate openly, Al Qaeda remains embedded, and the same extremists are now being trusted to “fight” other extremists. Bill Roggio and Edmund Fitton-Brown break down why outsourcing counterterrorism to jihadists is a fatal mistake — and why the so-called “peace of the Taliban” comes at an unbearable price: the erasure of half the country’s population and the return of Afghanistan as a global terror hub.
In a seismic policy shift after decades of Western indifference, the Trump administration has moved to designate key chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organizations. Bill Roggio is joined by FDD’s Edmund Fitton-Brown, who explains why this first round of designations is just the opening salvo.
Ceasefire on paper. Chaos on the ground. Trump’s 20-point plan promises “peace” in Gaza — but Hamas is already violating the ceasefire, gaming hostage returns, killing rivals, and rearming in tunnels. Bill Roggio is joined by his FDD colleagues Samuel Ben-Ur and Aaron Goren to discuss why disarming Hamas is a fantasy, why an international force risks becoming UNIFIL 2.0, and why Israel may be forced to finish the war.
The Taliban, a monster Islamabad built but can’t control, is waging a war against Pakistan—and it shouldn’t surprise anyone. After decades of Islamabad playing both arsonist and firefighter—nurturing the Taliban, harboring al Qaeda, and weaponizing jihad against India—Bill Roggio and Tom Joscelyn reunite to dissect why the blaze is finally backfiring on Pakistan.
Two years after the Iran-backed, Hamas-led attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, Israel remains locked into a multi-front, defensive war against the Islamic Republic and its patrons — including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Bill Roggio and Joe Truzman look back at how 10/7 reshaped the region, what’s surprised them most, and why the conflict is far from over.
Ahmad Sharawi is back with Bill Roggio to discuss the ongoing spectacle of Syrian interim President and former Al Qaeda member Ahmed al Sharaa, from massacres whitewashed and sanctions lifted with no conditions to foreign fighters handed Syrian citizenship — in its rush to embrace him, is the West willfully ignoring Sharaa’s blood-soaked past?
Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa is in New York City this week, headlining the UN General Assembly (UNGA), fraternizing with world leaders, and meeting with senior Trump administration officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He was even hosted by a prominent think tank for a fireside chat with General David Petraeus, a self-described “fan.” Why is everyone so eager to embrace someone with a record of terror? Tom Joscelyn is back with Bill Roggio to unpack Washington’s stunning, but not surprising, amnesia.
Four years after America’s chaotic retreat from Afghanistan, President Trump has said he wants US forces back at Bagram Air Base — or as Bill Roggio and Tom Joscelyn call it: a fantasy. They explain why the Taliban will never allow it, China wouldn’t tolerate it, and that Washington still hasn’t learned. From Doha to Abbey Gate, Bill and Tom retrace how America’s exit empowered jihadists—and why talk of going back is pure madness.
Bill is joined by Caleb Weiss and Edmund Fitton-Brown to analyze the UN’s latest Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team report on the evolving threats posed by Al Qaeda and the Islamic State — from their current state and leadership to the geopolitical influences at play and strategic significance of areas like Syria, Iraq, and Somalia
Behnam Ben Taleblu, David Daoud, and Ahmad Sharawi unpack the ongoing tensions in Syria and the country’s political landscape, including the role of the Druze community, Iranian influence, Israel’s military strategy, and the broader implications for Israel and the United States.
Bill, Joe and Ahmad cut through the social media smokescreen surrounding Suwayda’s Druze‑Bedouin clashes, from shifting loyalties to regime reprisals, as well as unpack Israel’s Gaza City offensive.
Bill and Edmund Fitton‑Brown break down the post‑12‑day war chessboard: Houthis, Hezbollah, and Tehran’s other proxies—what they’ve learned, and where to anticipate the next flashpoint.
Bill, Ahmad, and Bridget unpack this week’s biggest headlines out of the Middle East, including Druze militias overrunning Soweda as Israeli jets blast Damascus; anonymous drones torching Kurdish oilfields and U.S. posts; Yemeni forces intercepting 750 tons of Iranian arms—and more.
The Houthis are back at it—sinking ships, killing civilians, and holding crews hostage in the Red Sea. Bill is joined by his FDD colleagues Bridget Toomey and Bradley Bowman to unpack the details and discuss why Iran-backed proxies keep getting away with it—including how the U.S. “ceasefire” deal may have emboldened them. Also: Where’s Europe? And why does everyone seem more afraid of offending Tehran than protecting global shipping and freedom of navigation?
Does arming Ukraine come at the expense of our military readiness—or is it an investment in it?
Bill asks his FDD colleague and military expert Bradley Bowman to set the record straight on what it really takes for the US to defeat its enemies in the long war — and why deterring China, Russia, and Iran simultaneously is essential for American national security.
From munitions math and Pentagon priorities to strained stockpiles, weapons we’re sending, and weapons we’re not making fast enough, Brad covers the bases to illustrate why helping our democratic partners do damage to our enemies now is an investment in saving American lives later.
Bill is joined by (most of) the Generation Jihad crew to unpack a few headlines like: Hamas is murdering aid workers, the US is delisting a former Al Qaeda franchise, and the Houthis are back to bombing ships. They discuss how we got here and why terrorists around the region have every reason to feel emboldened.
Nearly four years after Kabul fell, the Taliban remain entrenched—and the resistance is fragmented, under-resourced, and increasingly demoralized. General Hibatullah Alizai, the last Chief of General Staff of the Afghan army, joins Bill Roggio and Will Selber to discuss the anti-Taliban fight, internal Taliban rifts, and why the US and its allies risk repeating their worst mistakes.
From Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria to whispers of folding Damascus into the Abraham Accords, Syria’s new leader, Ahmad al Sharaa—an ex–al Qaeda commander—now finds himself near the center of America’s diplomatic efforts in the region. Can a former jihadi become a US-backed peace partner? Are we seriously having this conversation again? Yes, and joining Bill to have it are his FDD colleagues David Daoud and Ahmad Sharawi.
The US and Israel just hit Iran’s nuclear program hard — but how much damage did they really do? Bill is joined by his FDD colleague and nuclear expert Andrea Stricker to discuss what was destroyed, what might have survived, whether Tehran’s nuclear program is dead or just delayed — as well as the intelligence, the spin, and why the Mossad and IAEA may hold the real answers.
Bill Roggio and Thomas Joscelyn unpack one of the most chaotic weekends in the post-9/11 war on terror: US forces’ strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, Tehran’s retaliation on CENTCOM’s forward base in Qatar, and Trump’s sudden ceasefire declaration.
Israel has launched a massive, coordinated strike campaign against Iran—targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile infrastructure, and senior regime officials. The entire Generation Jihad team convenes to break down what’s been hit, who’s been killed, why Israel chose this moment to act, and how one thing is clear: the long shadow war between Israel and Iran has just gone overt—and it may only be the beginning.
Bill, David, and Ahmad discuss recent news that Israel is quietly arming a militia in Gaza to challenge Hamas. Drawing lessons from Iraq, Lebanon, and Afghanistan, they unpack the risks, precedents, and possible blowback of empowering Gaza clans with murky pasts.
Bill and Behnam discuss the evolving dynamics of U.S. foreign policy on Iran and the subsequent need for coherent policy that addresses multifaceted issues including nuclear negotiations, Iranian protests against the regime, the ongoing threat posed by Iran’s proxy strategy — particularly from the Houthis, shifting attitudes of Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the potential impact on U.S.-Israel relations.
Behnam and David D. join Bill to discuss the attack in Washington, D.C. that killed a young couple working for the Israeli embassy. Behnam and David both were friends with Yaron, who tragically lost his life to yet another act of terror rooted in anti-semitism. They also briefly catch up on the current state of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and the still-burning dumpster fire in Lebanon.
FDD’s Brad Bowman and Bridget Toomey catch Bill up on the latest cluster of developments related to the Houthis — from the ceasefire initiated by President Trump and possible consequences for U.S.-Israel relations to the role of Iran in the ongoing conflict.