Few Iranian officials have responded publicly to the US strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear sites on June 21—an understandable silence, given that many leaders have either been eliminated by Israeli operations or gone into hiding. However, in an attempt to downplay the significance of the attacks, regime media circulated a video, purportedly filmed near the Fordow nuclear facility, that insisted the situation was “calm” and there was “no visible sign of a strike.”
In classic fashion, the Iranian regime is both minimizing the damage and threatening retaliation for an attack that it claims wasn’t serious in the first place. Assuming Tehran feels compelled to act to save face after a series of humiliating losses, the question now is not whether it will retaliate but who it will target—and on what scale.
Officials threaten US bases, reaffirm nuclear resolve
Despite two public speeches since the conflict began, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has yet to issue a new statement addressing the US strikes directly. The 86-year-old cleric, reportedly sheltering in a bunker, has remained largely silent. A post from a seemingly affiliated X account, “Khamenei Media,” shared a clip from his June 18 sermon, warning: “The US entering war is 100% to its own detriment. The damage it [US] will suffer will be far greater than any harm Iran may encounter.”
Ali Shamkhani, senior advisor to the Supreme Leader and a key figure in Iran’s nuclear policy apparatus, also issued a warning. Having survived an Israeli assassination attempt, Shamkhani posted on X, “Even if nuclear sites are destroyed, game isn’t over, enriched materials, indigenous knowledge, political will remain. With legitimate defense right, political and operational initiative is now with the side that plays smart, avoids blind strikes. Surprises will continue!” Consistent with that claim, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that most of the highly enriched uranium stored at Fordow had been relocated prior to the attack.
The most formal regime threat came from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which released a statement on June 22 declaring that the attacks had been “evident” to Iranian armed forces from the early stages. The statement warned that Iran will “consider options beyond the calculations” of its adversaries and that Washington should “expect a regrettable response.” It added, “The number, spread, and scale of US military bases in the region are not strengths—but vulnerabilities that multiply their exposure.”
The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News previously made similar threats on June 19 with a graphic map titled, “A list of US military bases in the region that are within range of Iranian missiles,” identifying 10 installations from Turkey to Oman.
While the IRGC does not officially control the nuclear file, it vowed in the same statement to deepen Iran’s nuclear efforts: “This aggression will only strengthen the determination of our young and committed scientists to continue advancing and developing this [nuclear] field.”
The statement also warned of continued attacks on Israel. “Operation True Promise 3,” the IRGC said, “which the Zionists have already experienced in 20 waves—will continue with precision, focus, and devastating effect against Israeli infrastructure, strategic centers, and interests.”
Citing an anonymous defense official, regime media further claimed that Iran is now prepared for a conflict lasting “at least two to six months,” during which it intends to use its full military and intelligence capacity to “settle the score” with Israel.
Newly appointed IRGC-Ground Forces commander Mohammad Pakpour said that the Aerospace Force’s operations “will not stop,” signaling that Iran will continue its missile campaign against Israel. Unlike his predecessor, Pakpour notably made no mention of the United States in his June 22 remarks.
A history of retaliation against US bases
Tehran has historically relied on proxies—especially in Iraq—to target American positions. Between October and December 2023 alone, Iran-backed militias carried out at least 160 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria.
One of the most significant precedents came in 2020, when Iran responded to the US assassinating Qassem Soleimani, then-commander of the IRGC Qods Force, at Baghdad International Airport. While the current military campaign has overshadowed that event in scale, Tehran viewed Soleimani’s death as a major escalation. In retaliation, it launched a ballistic missile barrage on Ayn al Asad airbase in Iraq—but not before warning the US via Swiss diplomats and the Iraqi government, ensuring minimal American casualties. The response was forceful but calculated—meant to show strength without provoking a full-scale war.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s parliament has reportedly “approved” a plan to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy corridor. A member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission stated that the IRGC Navy is fully prepared to carry out the closure, claiming that contingency plans have been in place for 37 years and could be enacted “in the shortest possible time.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed the threat as “economic suicide,” given Iran’s own dependence on the strait for its oil exports. A retaliation of this magnitude would inevitably draw in actors far beyond the United States, given that nearly 30 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports transit the Strait of Hormuz.
In practice, the regime appears more focused on systemic maritime harassment than an outright closure. In April 2023, Iranian forces seized the Advantage Sweet, a US-bound oil tanker. Weeks later, they captured the Niovi, another commercial vessel transiting the strait without cargo. In July, Iran attempted to intercept two additional tankers—TRF Moss and Richmond Voyager—but was repelled by US warships.
The harassment continued into 2024, when IRGC Navy forces seized the MSC Aries, a Portuguese-registered container ship in the Gulf of Oman, redirecting it into Iranian waters.
A hybrid response
Regime ideologue Hossein Shariatmadari, who enjoys close ties to the supreme leader, perhaps captured Iran’s likely response best. “It is now our turn. Without delay, and as a first step, we must launch missile strikes against the US naval fleet in Bahrain and simultaneously close the Strait of Hormuz to American, British, German, and French ships,” Shariatmadari wrote. He ended his statement by citing a Quranic verse: “And kill them wherever you find them.”
Tehran’s response might include a combination of all these threats: striking US bases, assassination attempts, and disrupting the Strait of Hormuz.
