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      <title>4 Threat Matrix</title>
      <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/</link>
      <description></description>
      <language>en</language>
      <copyright>Copyright 2012</copyright>
      <lastBuildDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2012 17:17:52 -0500</lastBuildDate>
      <generator>http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/</generator>
      <docs>http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss</docs> 

      
      <item>
         <title>Iraq executes Zarqawi aide</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/iraq-executions-idINDEE8170L620120208"><em>Reuters</em> reported</a> today that Abu Talha, a senior al Qaeda in Iraq leader who had served as a key commander for Abu Musab al Zarqawi, was among 14 terrorists and criminals who were executed on Tuesday:

<blockquote>"The Justice Ministry executed 14 Iraqis - terrorists and criminals - in Baghdad on Tuesday," a senior Justice Ministry official told <em>Reuters</em> on Wednesday.

They included Abu Talha who headed an al Qaeda affiliate, Islamic State of Iraq, in the northern city of Mosul and the provinces of Anbar and Salahuddin, the official said on condition of anonymity.</blockquote>

<a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2005/06/the_demise_of_a.php">Abu Talha's real name was Muhammad Khalaf Shakar</a>. In addition to being a senior member of al Qaeda in Iraq, he also was a commander in Ansar al Islam. Before he was captured by US special operations forces in June 2005, he was considered to be a potential successor to Zarqawi.

At the time of Abu Talha's arrest, CENTCOM said that he had "never stayed more than one night at any one residence, and always wore a suicide vest, saying he would never surrender."

Iraq seems intent on killing off those top leaders of al Qaeda in Iraq who are currently in custody. Today,<a href="http://en.aswataliraq.info/%28S%28wtz1zcfznxorfr55h1udrxnr%29%29/Default1.aspx?page=article_page&id=146828&l=1"> <em>Aswat al Iraq</em> reported </a>that an unnamed Saudi al Qaeda operative "with the initials BA" has been sentenced to death:

<blockquote>A leading al-Qaeda Commander, of Saudi nationality and holding the post of Military Emir (Prince) of al-Qaeda in northern Iraq's city of Mosul, has been sentenced to death by the Central Iraqi Criminal Court, according to a statement from within the High Judicial Council on Wednesday.
 
"The defendant, with the initials BA, who had occupied the post of the Military Emir (Prince) of the Right Side of Mosul in 2008, during the leadership of the former al-Qaeda Commander Abu-Musaab al-Zarqawi, was sentenced for execution by the High Judcial Criminal Court," the statement, as was received by Aswat al-Iraq news agency, stressed.
 
The statement pointed out that the defendant had confessed to having contributed to the Falluja battle in west Iraq, during which he lost one of his legs and was sentenced for 15 years imprisonment; at the time he gave a false name, claiming to be an Iraqi and confessed to having carried out terrorist acts, aimed at deteriorating the security situation in the country.</blockquote>

Although the initials do not match, it is possible that the al Qaeda leader to be executed <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/05/targeting_al_qaeda_i_2.php">is Ibrahim Ahmad Umar Nasir al Sabawi</a>, who was identified as al Qaeda's emir of eastern Mosul when he was captured by the US military in 2008. Sabawi's nationality was not given, however. Another Saudi, <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/03/two_saudi_al_qaeda_o.php">Abu Yasir al Saudi</a>, served as al Qaeda's emir for southeastern Mosul before he was killed in an airstrike by US forces in 2008.]]></description>
         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/iraq_executes_zarqawi_aide.php</link>
         <guid>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/iraq_executes_zarqawi_aide.php</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Al Qaeda</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Al Qaeda in Iraq</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Iraq</category>
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2012 17:17:52 -0500</pubDate>
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      <item>
         <title>Suicide bomber kills 9 in Mogadishu</title>
         <description><![CDATA[A Shabaab suicide bomber killed nine Somalis today in an attack outside a hotel in Mogadishu. <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/us-somalia-conflict-idUSTRE8171DG20120208">From <em>Reuters</em></a>:

<blockquote>A suicide car bomber killed at least nine people Wednesday near a hotel where lawmakers often gather in the Somali capital Mogadishu, police said.

Police officer Hassan Ali told <em>Reuters</em> the attacker rammed his vehicle into a cafe by the Hotel Muna, which was also stormed by al Shabaab militants in August 2010 in an attack that killed more than 30 people.

"So far we have carried nine dead civilians and 34 others injured. Up to now we have not seen casualties of any legislators. The death toll may rise," said Ali.

Police and the spokesman for African Union troops in Somalia said initial reports showed that the attacker first opened fire on people sitting near the hotel before detonating the car.</blockquote>

<a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/08/shabaab_fighters_kil.php">The Aug. 24, 2010 suicide assault</a> on the Hotel Muna was a particularly brazen effort by Shabaab, and was one of several in which Shabaab used a complex attack to target Somali officials. Shabaab has emulated the tactics of other al Qaeda affiliates and allies, including al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, al Qaeda in Iraq, and the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban. 

Shabaab has carried out more than 30 major suicide attacks in Somalia since September 2006, when its predecessor, the Islamic Courts Union, usurped control of the government (the Islamic Courts was ousted from power in an invasion by Ethiopian forces in December 2006). Several of the attacks have been carried out by American and British citizens who had left their home countries to join Shabaab.

Shabaab has also executed one suicide attack outside Somalia. A double suicide bombing on July 11, 2010 in Kampala, Uganda, killed 74 people. The suicide cell that carried out the attack, <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/07/shabaab_cell_that_ca.php"> the Saleh ali Nabhan Brigade,</a> is named after the al Qaeda leader who served as Shabaab's military commander before he was killed in a US special operations raid in September 2009.]]></description>
         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/suicide_bomber_kills_9_in_moga.php</link>
         <guid>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/suicide_bomber_kills_9_in_moga.php</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Al Qaeda</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Shabaab</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Somalia</category>
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2012 11:32:53 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>More Minneapolis ties to Shabaab </title>
         <description><![CDATA[Today the Justice Department announced that Ahmed Hussein Mahamud, a 27-year-old man formerly from the Minneapolis area, has pled guilty to conspiring to provide money and recruiting personnel for Shabaab, the al Qaeda-linked terror group in Somalia. Mahamud's conviction is the latest in an ongoing three-year investigation into links between Shabaab and the Somali-American community based in and around Minneapolis. From 2008 to February 2011, Mahamud, who was indicted on June 7, 2011, conspired to provide material support to Shabaab in aid of its fight against Somalia's Transitional Federal Government. 

From the <a href="http://www.justice.gov/usao/mn/mahamudplea.html">DOJ press release</a>:

<blockquote>The defendant also admitted that he and his co-conspirators raised money from the Somali-American community in Minnesota under false pretenses to pay for men in Minnesota to travel to Somalia to join al Shabaab. Specifically, the defendant and his co-conspirators claimed the money raised would be used for a local mosque or to help orphans in Somalia. In fact, the money collected was used to purchase airline tickets and to pay other expenses so men could travel from Minnesota to Somalia to join al-Shabaab.
Further, Mahamud admittedly sent money via wire transfers to a co-conspirator in Somalia, knowing the money would be used to purchase weapons or otherwise support al-Shabaab.
</blockquote>

The DoJ went on to outline the investigation into those implicated in activities supporting Shabaab. Since September 2007, around 20 men have left the Minneapolis area and traveled to Somalia, where they have trained with the terror group and, in numerous cases, joined it. One of the men, Cabdulaahi Ahmed Faarax, <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/01/american_fighter_pic.php">was recently identified by <em>The Long War Journal</em> in a picture that was taken with Omar Hammami</a>, a US-born Shabaab military commander who is on the US's list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists. Given the suspicious circumstances of the men's disappearance, an FBI investigation was opened into the men's activities. The investigation has unraveled a web of Shabaab sympathizers willing to send money to the group. 

Mahamud is one of seven who have pled guilty to terror-related charges in the FBI's investigation. Eight more are still at large, and are believed to be in Somalia supporting Shabaab. Two of the men under investigation have been killed fighting government forces in Somalia. ]]></description>
         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/more_minneapolis_ties_to_shaba.php</link>
         <guid>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/more_minneapolis_ties_to_shaba.php</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Al Qaeda</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Shabaab</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Somalia</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">United States</category>
        
         <pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 22:05:37 -0500</pubDate>
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      <item>
         <title>Boko Haram aims to topple Nigerian government</title>
         <description><![CDATA[The People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad, or Boko Haram, as the group is infamously known to the international community, has escalated its war on the Nigerian government in recent months, with devastating effects. In January alone, the terror group's attacks claimed over 250 lives, already more than half the number of deaths inflicted by its attacks in all of 2011. With a history of sectarian violence and recent bouts of civil unrest, Nigeria is at risk of descending into civil war as it faces an Islamic insurgency that is emerging as one the deadliest in the world. 

Maiduguri, located in northeast Nigeria's Muslim-dominated Borno state, is the birthplace of Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad (Boko Haram's official nom de guerre). Founded in 2002 by influential Muslim cleric Mohammad Yusuf, the group evolved from the leader's mosque and madrassa members to a nationwide threat aimed at establishing sharia law throughout Africa's most populous nation. And despite the arrest and summary killing of Yusuf by security forces in 2009, the group has redoubled its efforts to destabilize the government of President Goodluck Jonathan.

After Yusuf's death, the deputy leader of Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau, took the reins. Shekau has capitalized on the growing popular discontent with the government's handling of economic woes, now coupled with its inability to prevent the group's increasingly brazen terror attacks. Boko Haram punctuated its threat on Jan. 22 when gunmen and suicide bombers coordinated attacks on government and police buildings in Kano, leaving 185 dead. The attack followed a string of bombings on Christmas Day last year that killed 35 people. The country has also been plagued by numerous other bombings and attacks by gunmen during the previous months since Shekau's promotion to emir. 

History shows that violence in Africa has rarely raised eyebrows in the West, but the increasing influence of radical Islam in Nigeria is putting the international community on edge. One point of particular concern is <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/26/us-libya-un-arms-idUSTRE80P1QS20120126">a UN report showing Boko Haram's ties with al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb</a> (AQIM). The report outlines the arrest of seven Boko Haram members who were traveling through Niger to Mali, in possession of contact information for known al Qaeda members. Although coordination between Boko Haram and AQIM may still be only in the early stages, any communication between the terror groups spells trouble for Africa and may help explain the recent increase in violence in Nigeria. 

While Boko Haram and al Qaeda-aligned groups share the same general goals, Boko Haram has characteristics that are particularly worrisome. Instead of aspiring to attack globally, Nigeria's Islamic threat has a concentrated scope of attack that does not stray beyond the country's borders. The group's enemy has been clearly identified as the security and government forces of President Goodluck Jonathan, and as it stands, they seem capable of being defeated. And although Boko Haram has not sworn allegiance to al Qaeda, the terror franchise has a vested interest in seeing Nigeria fail as a state and become a terror safe haven à la Shabaab in Somalia. If that were to happen, Nigeria's geographic position would render all of North Africa susceptible to Islamic insurgencies itching to battle ill-equipped governments. 

Alarmed by the rise in Islamic terrorism in Nigeria, the governments of the US, Britain, and Israel have all expressed willingness to assist Jonathan's government and security forces with counterterrorism measures. But international assistance must be timely and calculated. The US is all too familiar with the results of showering corrupt administrations with financial aid, especially with administrations similar to Nigeria's current government, which admittedly has extremist sympathizers within its cabinet. Nigeria is clearly at a tipping point. The prospect of Boko Haram marginalizing the government, creating a security vacuum, and filling it, grows more possible with each attack. ]]></description>
         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/boko_haram_aims_to_topple_nige.php</link>
         <guid>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/boko_haram_aims_to_topple_nige.php</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Al Qaeda</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Boko Haram</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Nigeria</category>
        
         <pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2012 20:03:19 -0500</pubDate>
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      <item>
         <title>The Taliban on al Qaeda, 1996-97</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Recently I stumbled across these two US diplomatic cables from the 1990s that discuss meetings between diplomatic personnel in Pakistan and Taliban representatives. In its current attempts to negotiate with the Taliban to resolve the Afghan conflict, the US should remember that the Taliban have always been duplicitous about their relationship with al Qaeda.

In the first cable [excerpted below], from 1996, US officials described talks with Mullah Abdul Jalil, the Taliban's deputy foreign affairs advisor. During the meeting, Jalil claimed that his government was not aware of Osama bin Laden's location, vowed to ensure that al Qaeda camps would be shut, and promised that no safe haven would be given to the terror group. "Jalil made all the right sounds concerning terrorism," the cable ends optimistically.

In the second cable [also excerpted below], from 1997, US officials met with Maulavi Abdullah Hamad, the Taliban's Consular General in Karachi, and Hafizullah Safi. During the conversation, the latter described bin Laden as a "good mujahid" and said "he remained in Afghanistan on the understanding that he avoid any involvement in terrorism directed against the West or Saudi Arabia." The US officials also urged the Taliban to not destroy the Buddhist monuments in Bamiyan. 

So, to be clear here, in 1996, Taliban officials told US officials that bin Laden was not sheltering in their areas and that he would not be given safe haven to attack the West or Saudi Arabia. One year later, the Taliban admitted they were sheltering bin Laden, the "good mujahid." We all know the rest of the story. Bin Laden held press conferences vowing to attack the West. And Afghanistan was used as a base by al Qaeda to attack the West and Saudi Arabia multiple times, culminating in the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the US. 

<strong>Cable #1: <a href="http://www.dawn.com/2011/07/04/1996-taliban-denies-osama-bin-laden-is-in-their-territory.html">1996: Taliban deny Osama bin Laden is in their territory</a></strong>

4. (C) JALIL CLAIMED THAT ALL OF THE "ARABS" BEING TRAINED IN THESE CAMPS HAVE FLED TO AREAS CONTROLLED BY THE KABUL REGIME. ASKED ABOUT THE WHEREABOUTS OF SAUDI FINANCIER OSAMA BIN LADEN, HE RESPONDED THAT HE DID NOT KNOW, BUT HE WAS NOT IN AREAS CONTROLLED BY THE TALIBAN.

5. (C) POLOFF AND AARMA URGED JALIL TO ENSURE THAT THE TALIBAN TAKES MEASURES TO ENSURE THAT THESE CAMPS ARE NOT REACTIVATED AND THAT NO FORM OF "SAFE HAVEN" IS EXTENDED TO TERRORISTS. IN ADDITION, POLOFF AND AARMA EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS IMPORTANT THAT THE TALIBAN PUT OUT THE WORD THAT OSAMA BIN LADEN'S PRESENCE IN AFGHANISTAN IS NOT WANTED. JALIL REPLIED THAT THE TALIBAN DID NOT SUPPORT TERRORISM IN ANY FORM AND WOULD NOT PROVIDE REFUGE TO OSAMA BIN LADEN.

6. (C) SEPTEMBER 19 PAKISTANI PRESS REPORTS STATE THAT "AS MANY AS 107 PAKISTANIS WHO WERE RECEIVING MILITARY TRAINING AT TWO CAMPS IN AFGHANISTAN'S KHOST PROVINCE WERE CAUGHT ON THE PAKISTAN-AFGHAN BORDER WHILE RETURNING HOME AFTER THE SEIZURE OF THEIR CAMPS BY THE TALIBAN." ACCORDING TO THE ARTICLES, THE GOP BORDER FORCES TOOK THOSE ARRESTED TO DERA ISMAIL KHAN PRISON IN NORTH WAZIRSTAN AGENCY.

7. (C) COMMENT: JALIL MADE ALL THE RIGHT SOUNDS CONCERNING TERRORISM, AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE COUNTERTERRORISM POINTS HOME IN DISCUSSIONS WITH THE TALIBAN. WE HAVE NO INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION OF THE PAKISTANI PRESS REPORTS CITED IN PARA FIVE, BUT INTERIOR MINISTER BABAR TOLD THE DCM ON SEPTEMBER 12 THAT HE HAD ISSUED AN ORDER TO GOP BORDER FORCES TO ARREST TERRORISTS IF THEY TRIED TO ENTER PAKISTAN (REFTEL).

<strong>Cable #2: <a href="http://www.dawn.com/2011/07/04/1997-us-and-taliban-consuls-general-meet-in-karachi.html">1997: US and Taliban consuls general meet in Karachi</a></strong>

4. (C) CONSUL GENERAL ALSO ASKED ABOUT "THAT SAUDI PRINCE," WHO WAS IMMEDIATELY IDENTIFIED AS OSAMA BIN LADEN. SAFI LAUNCHED INTO AN EXPLANATION OF BIN LADEN'S PRESENCE IN TALIBAN TERRITORY WHICH TOOK THE STANDARD LINE: BIN LADEN HAD BEEN A GOOD MUJAHID FOR A DOZEN OR MORE YEARS. HE REMAINED IN AFGHANISTAN ON THE UNDERSTANDING THAT HE AVOID ANY INVOLVEMENT IN TERRORISM DIRECTED AGAINST THE WEST OR SAUDI ARABIA.

5. (C) WE ASKED IF HE HAD VIEWED THE PETER ARNETT CNN INTERVIEW WITH BIN LADEN. HE CLAIMED NO KNOWLEDGE OF THE INTERVIEW AND ASKED FOR A SUMMARY. CONSUL GENERAL EXPLAINED THAT BIN LADEN HAD VOWED ACTION AGAINST AMERICAN SOLDIERS IN SAUDI ARABIA. HE INVITED SAFI TO COME TO TEA AT JOHNSON HOUSE TO VIEW THE TAPE. SAFI UNDERTOOK TO DO SO, WE THINK.

6. (C) COMMENT: NOT ALL THAT MUCH SUBSTANCE THERE, OR PERHAPS MUCH REALITY BUT WHAT SEEMS CLEAR IS THAT THE TALIBAN ARE GETTING OUR MESSAGES. WE SUSPECT THAT THEIR COMMUNICATIONS WITH KANDAHAR ARE NOT THAT PERFECT BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE TELLING ONE ANOTHER WHAT U.S. CONCERNS ARE. WE ARE IN THE CULTIVATING MODE WITH THESE PEOPLE, WHOM WE MEET ONLY FLEETINGLY. WE HAD LUCK IN GETTING SAFI OVER TO HEAR OUR PITCH ON PRESERVING THE BUDDHIST MONUMENTS AT BAMIYAN. WE'LL TRY TO GET HIM TO FOLLOW THROUGH ON THE ARNETT TAPE.]]></description>
         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/the_taliban_on_al_qaeda_1996-9.php</link>
         <guid>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/the_taliban_on_al_qaeda_1996-9.php</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Afghanistan</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Al Qaeda</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Pakistan</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Taliban</category>
        
         <pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2012 23:22:48 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>US withdrawal plan from Afghanistan has not changed</title>
         <description><![CDATA[On Wednesday, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta announced that the US would end combat operations in Afghanistan in "mid to late 2013." The US forces would then switch to an advise and assist role, and the final withdrawal would occur by the end of 2014. <a href="http://edmonton.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120201/afghanistan-combat-ending-2012-120201/20120201/?hub=EdmontonHome"><em>CTV</em> reported</a>:

<blockquote>The United States and its NATO partners will end their combat roles in Afghanistan in 2013 -- a year earlier than previously announced.

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said that American troops will remain in the country through 2014, but only in a supporting role.

This switch to training and advising Afghan forces will occur in mid- to late-2013, Panetta told reporters in Brussels.</blockquote>

This announcement seems to have come as a surprise to many parties, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/02/us-afghanistan-idUSTRE8100E520120202"><em>Reuters</em> noted:</a>

<blockquote>Panetta surprised allies on Wednesday by suggesting the US combat mission in Afghanistan would end in 2013, the first time Washington had floated such a deadline.</blockquote>

Should it have surprised the US's allies? Was this really a change in plan?

<strong>No change in plan</strong>

Secretary Panetta's announcement corresponds to the same plan that US allies and the Karzai Government in Afghanistan agreed to over a year ago.

In September 2010, former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced that the US would conduct combat operations in Afghanistan for only "two or three more years" </a>before transitioning to an advise and assist role,<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704855104575469770302547514.html"> the <em>Wall Street Journal </em>reported</a>: 

<blockquote>Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he envisions two or three more years of combat operations in Afghanistan before the U.S. transitions to an advisory role, a mission likely to last years more.

Pulling out combat forces in three years would ensure that the allied presence has transitioned to a training mission by the time British troops are due to withdraw in 2015. It would also meet Afghan President Hamid Karzai's goal of having his own army take responsibility for security by 2014.</blockquote>

At the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Lisbon_summit">NATO summit in Lisbon</a> in November 2010, NATO and Afghan President Karzai agreed to the withdrawal date of the end of 2014.

<blockquote>The members met with President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai regarding the group's operations in the country. They agreed to gradually withdraw combat forces from the country with a completion date of 2014.</blockquote>

In other words, Gates announced more than a year ago that the US would end combat operations sometime between late 2012 and late 2013. This is consistent with Panetta's announcement that combat operations would end in "mid to late 2013." 

Gates also said back in September 2010 that the US would follow the same withdrawal schedule as it did in Iraq<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704855104575469770302547514.html">, the <em>Wall Street Journal </em>reported at the time:</a>

<blockquote>Mr. Gates sketched a process much like that in Iraq, where the U.S. formally ended combat operations this week, rebranding its forces as advisory brigades.</blockquote>

This part also has not changed. For Iraq, the last <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/world/middleeast/last-convoy-of-american-troops-leaves-iraq.html?pagewanted=all">US forces left in December 2011</a>. However, the US had <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11147300">ended combat operations 16 months earlier</a>, in August 2010, at which point US forces transitioned to an advise and assist role.

For Afghanistan, the US plans to leave by the end of 2014. Following the same schedule as in Iraq, the US should then end combat operations 16 months earlier, by August 2013, and transition to an advise and assist role. Again, this corresponds to Secretary Panetta's statement that combat operations would end in "mid to late 2013" and the US would transition to an advise and assist role. 

To sum up, the timetable announced by Panetta on Wednesday does not deviate from that announced by Gates in September 2010 and adopted by NATO in the strategic agreement of November 2010.
]]></description>
         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/us_withdrawal_plan_from_afghan.php</link>
         <guid>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/us_withdrawal_plan_from_afghan.php</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Afghanistan</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">US Military</category>
        
         <pubDate>Sat, 04 Feb 2012 12:56:26 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>Did US drones strike in Pakistan yesterday?</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-02/01/c_131386298.htm">According to <em>Xinhua</em></a>, which cites local Pakistani news channels, US drones struck yesterday in Pakistan's Arakzai tribal agency, killing 13 "militants," including six "foreigners":

<blockquote>At least 13 people were killed when a U.S. drone launched three missile strikes in Orakzai region of Pakistan's northwest tribal belt on Wednesday, local media reported.

According to the report by local TV channel Geo, the attack was launched in wee hours in the morning when a U.S. drone fired three missiles at a militants'hideout in Darand Shekhan area of upper Orakzai agency, a militancy-hit tribal area where Pakistan army has been battling local and foreign Taliban militants for the past four months.

The report said that six foreigners were also among the killed militants and the dead bodies have been shifted to other areas of Orakzai after the drone attack.</blockquote>

This was picked up by some small news outlets, <a href="http://www.khybernews.tv/newsDetails.php?cat=13&key=NjA0MQ==">such as <em>Khyber News</em></a>. But none of the major Pakistani news outlets, or the wire services, have reported on an Arakzai strike. Local Pakistani officials, who are often quick to claim drone strikes have taken place (and who have been accurate in the past on said strikes), denied that drones struck in Arakzai.

Pakistani news outlets instead have said that Pakistani Air Force jets targeted Taliban hideouts in Arakzai. Here is a report <a href="http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012\02\02\story_2-2-2012_pg7_6">from <em>Daily Times</em></a>:

<blockquote>At least 20 terrorists were killed as fighter jets pounded Taliban hideouts in Orakzai Agency on Wednesday, military sources said. The air strikes came a day after terrorists attacked a security checkpost in Jogi Heights in Mamozai region of Kurram Agency in which eight soldiers were killed. "Jets have targeted the hideouts of Taliban commander Mullah Toofan and commander Moheyuddin, ground intelligence reported at least 20 Taliban were killed in the blitz," military sources told Daily Times. Sources added that four compounds of the Taliban had been hit in the air strike. They added that some reports suggested that commander Moheyuddin could have been killed in the bombing. However, there was no independent confirmation of the commander's death. Considering the strategic location of the region, terrorists have been putting up stiff resistance to the military operation. This has also given the Taliban upper hand since they have cut off road links to Kurram Agency. Sources did not say how effective the operation was in weakening the terrorists so that ground troops could move in. </blockquote>

It certainly is possible that US drones conducted an attack in Arakzai yesterday and the major media outlets missed it, but it is unlikely. Of the 305 strikes that have taken place since 2004, only one hit a target in Arakzai, and just 11 others hit targets outside of North and South Waziristan. A strike in Arakzai would be hard for the media to miss.]]></description>
         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/did_us_drones_strike_in_pakist.php</link>
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         <pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2012 18:00:39 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>US announces early end to combat operations in Afghanistan</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta announced that the US would end combat operations in Afghanistan in mid-to-late 2013, more than one year earlier than the previously announced date of the end of 2014. After ending their combat operations, the US forces would transition to a training and advising role, with the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) taking over the lead combat role. The ANSF currently number 305,000 police and army troops, and are slated to grow to 352, 000 by September 2012.

According to the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/2010/07/28/gIQAriZJiQ_story_1.html"><em>Washington Post:</em></a>

<blockquote>Current NATO strategy, agreed to at a summit in Lisbon in November 2010, calls for coalition forces to gradually shift to a training, advisory and assistance role with the Afghan military on the way to withdrawing all combat troops by the end of 2014.

A Panetta spokesman traveling with the defense chief issued a statement Wednesday evening -- several hours after Panetta's original remarks -- saying that U.S. troops could still be involved in at least some combat operations , in partnership with Afghan forces, in 2014.

U.S. and NATO forces, he said, would still be actively engaged in helping Afghan forces operate. Although the Afghan army has grown in size and capability, it is still dependent on the U.S. military for airpower, troop movement, supplies and medical aid.</blockquote>

Secretary Panetta also said that no decision has been made on how many US troops will remain in Afghanistan once combat operations end. The previously announced plan called for a reduction from the current level of 90,000 US troops to 67,000 by October 2012  and a steady drawdown after that with most US troops out by the end of 2014.

Today's announcement comes on the heels of an <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/27/us-france-afghanistan-idUSTRE80Q1L320120127">announcement by the French</a> that they will withdraw their forces from Afghanistan by 2013. ]]></description>
         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/_us_announces_early_end_to_comb.php</link>
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          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Afghanistan</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">US Military</category>
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 01 Feb 2012 22:37:13 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>NATO report implies Pakistan&apos;s ISI supports al Qaeda as well</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Here is another interesting excerpt from the <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/01/shocking_pakistan_supports_the.php">shocking!</a> <em>BBC</em> <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16821218">article about the classified NATO report on Pakistan's support of the Afghan Taliban</a>:

<blockquote>It says that Pakistan is aware of the locations of senior Taliban leaders.

"Senior Taliban representatives, such as Nasiruddin Haqqani, maintain residences in the immediate vicinity of ISI headquarters in Islamabad," it said.

It quotes a senior al Qaeda detainee as saying: "Pakistan knows everything. They control everything. I can't [expletive] on a tree in Kunar without them watching."

"The Taliban are not Islam. The Taliban are Islamabad."</blockquote>

First, an unnamed son of Jalaluddin Haqqani, the family patriarch, has been reported in the past in the Pakistani press to be living in Rawalpindi, near General Headquarters.

Second, the statement from the "senior al Qaeda detainee" is interesting, as it implies that the ISI (the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, Pakistan's notorious military intelligence service) is quite aware of al Qaeda's activities in Afghanistan. Again, this should come as no shock. See <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/07/the_gitmo_files_al_q_1.php">this report by Thomas Joscelyn on the ISI's links with Haji Wali Mohammed</a>, detailing the ISI's support of al Qaeda's "primary financial manager," and <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/09/ex-gitmo_detainee_ki_1.php">this report on Sabar Lal Melma</a>, for some specific examples of the ISI's support for al Qaeda in Afghanistan.

Third, while the identity of the "senior al Qaeda detainee" is not given, we may be able to guess who he is. As far as I can tell, only one senior al Qaeda leader has been captured recently in Kunar province: <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/04/isaf_captures_al_qae.php">Abu Ikhlas al Masri</a>. The rest of the senior al Qaeda leaders targeted in Kunar have been killed, according to ISAF's own press releases (most in airstrikes, not during raids designed to capture). It is also certainly possible that ISAF has captured another senior al Qaeda leader in Kunar and hasn't reported it. 




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         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/02/nato_report_implies_pakistans.php</link>
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          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Al Qaeda</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Pakistan</category>
        
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         <pubDate>Wed, 01 Feb 2012 16:50:19 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>Shocking! Pakistan supports the Taliban, NATO says </title>
         <description><![CDATA[<center><object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/T1DEG6BWgp0&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/T1DEG6BWgp0&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object></center>

We retired the prestigious Captain Louis Renault Award last year after Osama bin Laden was killed at a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. We felt that nothing could top the shock value of that. Osama bin Laden, living for years just a stone's throw from Pakistan's top military academy, far from the tribal areas, and the US couldn't tell Pakistani officials the raid on his compound was coming because US officials didn't trust them - what could have been more shocking. 

We've wanted to roll out the award several times since then but stifled the urge. But now comes <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16821218">this report, from the <em>BBC</em></a>, on a leaked NATO document that - wait for it - says that Pakistan supports the Afghan Taliban and shelters its leaders. Who would have seen this one coming? We truly and sincerely are shocked, shocked! that Pakistan would do such a thing. Below is a long excerpt from the <em>BBC</em> report:

<blockquote>The Taliban in Afghanistan are being directly assisted by Pakistani security services, according to a secret Nato report seen by the BBC.

The leaked report, derived from thousands of interrogations, claims the Taliban remain defiant and have wide support among the Afghan people.

It alleges that Pakistan knows the locations of senior Taliban leaders.

A BBC correspondent says the report is painful reading for international forces and the Afghan government.

Pakistan has strenuously denied any links with the Taliban on previous occasions.

"We have long been concerned about ties between elements of the ISI and some extremist networks," said US Pentagon spokesman Captain John Kirby, adding that the US Defence Department had not seen the report.

'Informational'
The BBC's Quentin Sommerville in Kabul says the report - on the state of the Taliban - fully exposes for the first time the relationship between the Pakistani intelligence service (ISI) and the Taliban.

The report is based on material from 27,000 interrogations with more than 4,000 captured Taliban, al-Qaeda and other foreign fighters and civilians.

It notes: "Pakistan's manipulation of the Taliban senior leadership continues unabatedly". It says that Pakistan is aware of the locations of senior Taliban leaders.

The report states: "As this document is derived directly from insurgents it should be considered informational and not necessarily analytical."</blockquote>






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         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/01/shocking_pakistan_supports_the.php</link>
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          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Taliban</category>
        
         <pubDate>Tue, 31 Jan 2012 21:58:49 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>Lashakr al Zil strong in Afghanistan-Pakistan border region</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<em>TIME</em> reports on a clash in Kunar province, Afghanistan in late October 2011 between US and Afghan forces on one side, and the Taliban and their allies on the other. The Taliban attempted to overrun a platoon manning an observation post (OP) in the Kunar River Valley. An estimated 500 Taliban and allied fighters, including "Arabs and Chechens and Punjabis" - clearly the<a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/02/al_qaedas_paramilita.php"> Lashkar al Zil</a>, the military formation made up of al Qaeda and allied jihadist groups in the region - massed from Pakistan and assaulted the platoon of US and Afghan forces (numbering 23).<a href="http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2105703,00.html"> From <em>TIME</em></a>:

<blockquote>The soldiers eventually won their battle at OP Shal, securing the Kunar River Valley from infiltration, eliminating insurgent roadblocks and opening it to civilian and military traffic. But the Taliban's weeklong attack highlighted the many military problems facing Afghanistan, and it made clear that the outcome of the conflict remains far from certain.

Throughout the intense fighting, the besieged defending force of 36 U.S. and Afghan army soldiers fought off multiple suicide bombers and at least four overrun attempts by between 400 and 500 heavily armed insurgents, who had been trucked in from Pakistan and who managed to advance to within 5 m of U.S. positions. Afterward, the soldiers said they confirmed 115 kills but estimated at least 200 deaths. "It was the most coordinated thing any of us had ever seen, but just the sheer number of forces they had massing on that position was ridiculous," Staff Sergeant Everett Bracey, of 1st Platoon, Bravo Company, 2-27 Infantry Battalion, told TIME.

The attackers were reinforced and resupplied throughout the fight from bases and depots in the safe haven provided by Pakistan. "We saw 60 vehicles come out of Pakistan -- just drive in," said Staff Sergeant Anthony Fuentes, looking at a topographical map a few days after the battle. "This whole route, it goes all the way up into Pakistan. It's a two-hour trafficable route from the border." Added company commander Captain Michael Kolton: "It was Pashtuns and Arabs and Chechens and Punjabis -- everyone and their sister joined in on this one."

The defenders of OP Shal also recognized that their attackers had been well trained. "They used the standard operating procedures that the U.S. Army uses," explained Fuentes. "We expected contact, but we didn't expect that. Their fire was so heavy and precise that to get up and look at their near sector, the joes just had to say, 'O.K., I'm just going to eat one in the face just to get up and see if somebody is moving on me.' And every time they lifted their head up, there was somebody there."

Sitting in his squad bay at Combat Outpost Monti, Sergeant Brandon Goodell told TIME, "They are motivated, they are trained, and they are proficient." But what most surprised the Americans was the insurgents' determination to regain this strategic mountaintop commanding a 6-km section of road in the main Kunar River Valley. "They were relentless. They were all over us. I've never seen them come that hard at anybody," said Fuentes. The numbers, skill and determination of the insurgents repelled at OP Shal seem quite at odds with President Obama's suggestion that the Taliban's momentum has been broken.</blockquote>

Over the past several years, the Lashkar al Zil has conducted similar assaults against US combat outposts in Kunar, <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/10/more_than_100_enemy.php">Nuristan</a>, Paktia, Paktika, and Khost. US forces have repelled the assaults.

The Taliban still control large areas of Kunar and neighboring Nuristan province, as well as areas in Pakistan's tribal agencies of Mohmand and Bajaur. The Pakistani military routinely claims the Taliban have been defeated in these two tribal agencies, but the massed assault launched from Pakistan (among others) shows that such claims are far from the truth. ]]></description>
         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/01/lashakr_al_zil_strong_in_afgha.php</link>
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          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Afghanistan</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Al Qaeda</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Lashkar al Zil</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Pakistan</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Taliban</category>
        
         <pubDate>Tue, 31 Jan 2012 13:51:15 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>Strategic retreat</title>
         <description><![CDATA[Thomas Joscelyn and Bill Roggio have published an article at <em>The Weekly Standard</em> discussing the Obama administration's strategy for dealing with al Qaeda and allied terrorist groups. After years of back-and-forth between the administration and elements of the military establishment over the strategy to deal with the terrorist threat, the proponents of a counterterrorism-based approach to dealing with al Qaeda and allied groups have won the fight. Counterinsurgency (COIN) efforts to uproot the jihadist insurgencies raging in Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia have given way to drone strikes, limited special operations raids, and cooperation with local and often unreliable governments.

The Obama administration's growing preference for counterterrorism over counterinsurgency operations is a topic that Thomas and Bill discussed in detail with respect to Afghanistan in October 2009, in <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/10/analysis_al_qaeda_is.php">Al Qaeda is the Tip of the Jihadist Spear</a>. 

The recent article at <a href="http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/strategic-retreat_618785.html"><em>The Weekly Standard</em> is titled "Strategic Retreat</a>." A short excerpt is below, but read the whole thing.

<blockquote>Drones are not enough to contain this menace. But President Obama has done away with COIN, the U.S. military's counterinsurgency doctrine centered on building up allied local forces and good governance, for more limited counterterrorism measures such as drones and special forces raids. It apparently does not matter to the Obama administration that such tactics failed to stop al Qaeda's armies from previously controlling parts of Iraq and continuing to control territory elsewhere. 

Al Qaeda is hardly invincible. It has been greatly weakened, in some ways, during the past decade. But al Qaeda and its allies can only be strengthened by America's retreat from the lands of jihad. And they are not the only ones watching as President Obama takes his eye off the ball. Terror-sponsoring regimes like those in Iran and Pakistan have learned that there is no substantial price to be paid for spilling American blood. They've learned, too, that America's commitment to fight its enemies is severely constrained by domestic political considerations. 

The Obama administration lauds its counterterrorism partnerships with friendly governments. Allies, indeed, are invaluable. But the Arab Spring has introduced uncertainty into some of these relationships. In Egypt, a government dominated by the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood has replaced the regime of the friendly, if despicable, Hosni Mubarak. In Yemen, a duplicitous but sometimes helpful President Ali Abdullah Saleh has given way to chaos and a growing al Qaeda insurgency. In Libya, the gangster-terrorist Muammar Qaddafi, who also occasionally provided counterterrorism assistance, has fallen to a coalition that includes jihadists. We should not be sad to see the Mubaraks, Salehs, and Qaddafis go. But now that they are gone, we should be worried that the American government under President Obama will not seek to influence the course their nations take. </blockquote>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/01/strategic_retreat.php</link>
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          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Al Qaeda</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">United States</category>
        
         <pubDate>Sat, 28 Jan 2012 12:10:54 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>Pakistan-China alliance: less than meets the eye</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<em>Reuters</em> recently featured an extensive <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/india-expertzone/2012/01/20/the-limits-of-the-pakistan-china-alliance/">analysis of the Pakistan-China alliance</a>. With US-Pakistan relations deteriorating, Pakistan has attempted to 'replace' the US by improving relations with China, calling it Pakistan's "all-weather friend." Lisa Curtis and Derek Scissors, of the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation, argue that there are in fact significant limits to the Pakistan-China relationship which have implications for US policy makers.

<blockquote>In the past, U.S. officials have worried that pushing Pakistan too hard to crack down on terrorists could drive Islamabad more firmly into Beijing's embrace. But China's lukewarm response to Pakistan's recent overtures demonstrates that there are limits to what Islamabad can expect from its "all-weather friend" -- a term often used by Pakistani officials when referring to China. While China has an interest in maintaining strong security ties with Pakistan, the notion that Chinese ties could serve as a replacement for U.S. ties has been overstated by Pakistani officials. The U.S. has provided considerably higher amounts of economic and military aid to Pakistan over the past decade and also serves as a link to the rest of the Western nations, which otherwise would likely be inclined to sanction Pakistan for its nuclear and terrorism activities.

U.S. policymakers must recognise these limits to the benefits that Pakistan will receive from China. China is increasingly concerned about Islamist extremism and terrorism in Pakistan, and there may be room for Washington to seek Beijing's cooperation in encouraging a more stable and prosperous Pakistan. The U.S. should make clear to China that adopting a more holistic approach to terrorism issues in Pakistan would help mitigate threats to both Washington and Beijing, since Islamabad's support for some terrorist groups strengthens the ideological base, logistical capabilities, and financial support for all Islamist terrorist groups.</blockquote>

What interests do the Pakistanis and the Chinese share? And how extensive are they?

<strong>Security</strong> 

Pakistan and China both share an interest in India as an adversary. Pakistan has a political interest in featuring India as an adversary. China has an interest in limiting India's international influence and also in creating a strategic dilemma for India's military. Nonetheless, it is not in China's interest to support an actual India-Pakistan war.

<blockquote>Pakistan and China have long-standing strategic ties, dating back five decades. China maintains a robust defence relationship with Pakistan and views a strong partnership with Pakistan as a useful way to contain Indian power in the region and divert Indian military force and strategic attention away from China. The China-Pakistan partnership serves both Chinese and Pakistani interests by presenting India with a potential two-front theater in the event of war with either country. Chinese officials also view a certain degree of India-Pakistan tension as advancing their own strategic interests, as such friction bogs India down in South Asia and interferes with New Delhi's ability to assert its global ambitions and compete with China at the international level.

Though Pakistan considers China a more reliable defense partner than the U.S., Islamabad should also recognise that China's support has its limits, especially during times of conflict and tension between New Delhi and Islamabad. When Pakistan sought Chinese assistance during its 1965 war with India, Beijing encouraged Islamabad to withdraw its forces from Indian territory.

During the 1999 Indo-Pakistani border war in Kargil, Beijing privately supported U.S. calls for Pakistan to withdraw its forces from the heights of Kargil on the Indian side of the Line of Control to defuse the crisis, and apparently communicated this stance to Pakistani leaders. The Chinese position during the Kargil episode helped spur a thaw in Indian-Chinese relations. During the 2001-2002 Indo-Pakistani military crisis, China stayed neutral and counseled restraint on both sides, declaring that China was a "neighbor and friend of both countries.
</blockquote>

<strong>Counterterrorism</strong> 

China has more in common with the US in fighting terrorism than with Pakistan's promotion of terrorism. 

<blockquote>Chinese officials are increasingly connecting the level of terrorist activity in Pakistan to instability in western China. One Chinese academic has noted in his writings that China has developed a more neutral position on the Indo-Pakistani dispute over Kashmir over the past decade in part because China believes that the dispute could have implications for ethnic-religious unrest in China, especially in Tibet or Xinjiang.

In this context, the ascendance of Taliban forces in either Pakistan or Afghanistan is clearly not in China's interest. But rather than encouraging Islamabad to adopt a comprehensive approach toward countering terrorism, Chinese leaders have used their relationships with Pakistani military officials, and with the Islamist political parties, to persuade them to discourage attacks on Chinese interests. Before 9/11, for example, the Chinese reached agreements with the Taliban to prevent Uighur separatists from using Afghanistan as a training ground for militant activities.</blockquote>

<strong>Economic cooperation</strong>

Because of Pakistan's poor economy, China has little to gain from expanding economic cooperation with its southern neighbor.

<blockquote>China's concrete economic and political interests in Pakistan itself are not that extensive. China's economic commitment to Pakistan, for instance, is not especially impressive in size and has shown clear limits. China has shown little interest in propping up Pakistan's economy and has not provided substantial economic aid, even during times of need.

Pakistan's portrayal of its relationship with China features exaggeration of the economic dimension of the relationship. Pakistani media routinely report huge numbers for investment and financing with the People's Republic of China (PRC), numbers that cannot be verified by any independent source, including by the Chinese government or the Chinese companies supposedly involved. While Pakistani officials talk of a total of $25 billion in Chinese investment in Pakistan so far, the PRC's official figure of direct investment through 2010 is $1.83 billion.</blockquote>

<strong>Trade</strong>

 Again, due to Pakistan's poor economy, China has little to gain.

<blockquote>Trade is not exaggerated by Pakistan or rendered unclear by Chinese secrecy. As with investment and (apparently) finance, though, it is relatively insubstantial. On Chinese figures, bilateral trade volume was below $9 billion in 2010 and grew slightly less quickly than the PRC's overall trade. The Philippines are similar to Pakistan in GDP and not as close politically with China. The Philippines mining sector is underdeveloped. Yet China's bilateral trade with the Philippines in 2010 was still three times larger than its trade with Pakistan, and grew faster.

Not only is the trade relationship small, it is imbalanced. The PRC's 2010 surplus was $5.2 billion, tiny by Chinese standards, but huge in comparison to bilateral trade volume. If Beijing wanted to assist Islamabad for political reasons, it could artificially inflate imports from Pakistan, at least on a temporary basis. Cosmetic efforts along these lines are routinely made with the PRC's major economic partners, but Pakistan clearly does not qualify.</blockquote>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/01/china_-_pakistan_alliance_less.php</link>
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          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">China</category>
        
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         <pubDate>Fri, 27 Jan 2012 18:30:56 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>AQIM plot foiled in Algeria</title>
         <description><![CDATA[American officials are acknowledging a terror plot in Algeria that aimed to attack US or European ships in the Mediterranean. The plot, which was similar to that of the bombings in Yemen of the USS Cole in 2000 and the Limburg oil tanker in 2002, included ramming explosives-filled boats into Western-flagged ships, but was interrupted by Algerian authorities in the early planning stages. 

<a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/al-qaeda-affiliate-targets-us-ships-report/story?id=15432482#.TyG4k5gW9BI"><em>ABC reported</em></a> that US officials had been aware of the plot before the Algerian daily newspaper, <em>Echorouk</em>, broke the story, but hinted that Algerian authorities had foiled the plot without the help of the US government. 

Three terror cell members were arrested after arousing suspicions among Algerian authorities when they visited jihadist websites at a local Internet cafe. Although no specific US ship was identified as a target, according to US authorities, <em>Echorouk</em> reported that the plotters had already purchased a boat to carry out the attack. 

When asked if the US had played any role in uncovering the plot, a US counterterrorism official gave <em>ABC</em> a vague response, saying, "We know that al Qaeda and their sympathizers continue to plot against the US and our allies [and] as such, we are in touch with a number of foreign governments on issues pertaining to counterterrorism." 

Authorities believe the plot was directed by the Algerian-based terror franchise known as al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The group, which had earlier called itself the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), was officially welcomed into the al Qaeda fold by then second-in-command Ayman al Zawahiri in a Sept. 11, 2006 video.

In recent years, AQIM has tried to make headlines to keep pace with other affiliates such as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the ever-growing al Qaeda-aligned Somali insurgency, Shabaab. Although most of AQIM's attacks are aimed at Algerian government and military targets, the group has recently begun to rely on kidnapping European tourists as a means to further fund its desire to conduct attacks globally. ]]></description>
         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/01/aqim_directed_plot_foiled_in_a.php</link>
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          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb</category>
        
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         <pubDate>Thu, 26 Jan 2012 18:35:51 -0500</pubDate>
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         <title>The cartoon jihad continues</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<img alt="cartoonjihad03.jpg" src="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/images/cartoonjihad03.jpg" width="450" height="420" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;" />

An al Qaeda supporter has opted once again to use art to promote jihad against the West, thereby violating the Salafist jihadist or Wahhabist proscriptions <em>against art </em>endorsed by ... al Qaeda. Via the SITE Intelligence group:

<blockquote>The creators of a jihadi comic strip called "Son of the Martyr" released a second comic, "The Fleeing Enemy," using the characters they established to contrast Islamic society with that of the West.  The comic was posted on the Shumukh al-Islam forum on January 24, 2012, and comes nearly four months after the first issue.  The message posted with the first issue indicated that the creators were seeking a media foundation to publish the comics.  In the message introducing the second comic, the creators named the "al-Wedha Islamic Foundation" as its publishing house and explained that the comic is a means to face Western "culturization" of Muslim boys and girls.

In response to the comic, a fellow jihadist on Shumukh al-Islam commended the creators and advised they produce more comics but not focus on jihad alone.  He added: "By Allah, the Jews and the disbelievers sneak their beliefs through such drawings that some might see as simple, but they are not simple at all.  If they are read by a child, they will remain in his imagination...."  </blockquote>

As a reminder, artwork, especially drawing the human form and "other living objects," is <a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/07/aqap_artist_crayons_himself_to.php">prohibited</a> in many unadulterated interpretations of Islam. (As are <a href="http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/11/18/177878.html">music, dance</a>, <a href="http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/gulf/wahhabi.htm">loud laughter</a>, and many other basic human activities, according to the logic of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Takfiri">takfiris</a>). 

The use of cartoons on an al Qaeda-associated Internet forum illustrates how individuals can be enamored of the trappings of armed jihad, while at the same time lacking in understanding of the particular theology behind the jihadist movement they have embraced. Casual support of strict Islamist and radical jihadist <em>political goals</em> is easy; actually living under their authority - and the brutally enforced, austere standards that can come with it - is hard.

This helps explain a paradox in some quarters of the Muslim world. Although some opinion polls may show casual support for the vague <a href="http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/feb09/STARTII_Feb09_rpt.pdf">political aims</a> (though not the means) and general Islamic identification of strict conservative and radical groups, many of those movements wear out their welcome once they obtain any real authority (i.e., <a href="http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/526-enein.pdf">Algeria</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/17/world/middleeast/17cnd-iraq.html?ei=5094&en=55ed48eed408153d&hp=&ex=1158552000&partner=homepage&pagewanted=print">Iraq's Anbar province</a>, and large portions of Afghanistan). Narrow, harshly-enforced theology conflicts with both modernism and regional cultural standards, such as tribal codes ... or the basic permission to create artwork that depicts living beings. 

Thus, an al Qaeda cartoonist is both ignorant and hypocritical. And beyond his violation of religious precepts, he is protesting "Western 'culturization' of Muslim boys and girls," in a medium that is itself a symptom of 'Western  ... culturization.' Irony abounds.
]]></description>
         <link>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/01/the_cartoon_jihad_continues.php</link>
         <guid>http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2012/01/the_cartoon_jihad_continues.php</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Al Qaeda</category>
        
         <pubDate>Thu, 26 Jan 2012 10:11:48 -0500</pubDate>
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