(14)A US raid captures Taliban in North Waziristan?
Two unconfirmed reports from Pakistan today claim that "NATO" forces in two helicopters crossed from Afghanistan into Pakistan's tribal agency of North Waziristan, snatched five Taliban/Haqqani Network members, and took them back across the border into Afghanistan. The reports differ: Xinhua claimed five leaders from the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan were captured, while The Nation said five Haqqani Network operatives were captured.
Unconfirmed news from intelligence sources said on Monday that five Pakistan Taliban ( TTP) leaders were arrested Monday morning in the Gorvait area of North Waziristan by NATO forces and later taken away by two NATO helicopters to Afghanistan.According to the sources who asked to remain anonymous, the action was taken by the NATO forces without informing the Pakistani government. If so, this is another Abbottabad-like operation taken by the foreign forces on the Pakistani soil without the knowledge of the Pakistani side.
Political agent of North Waziristan also confirmed the news.
And from The Nation:
Sources said that two NATO choppers entered the Pakistani airspace to hunt militants in border area of North Waziristan Agency (NWA).The NATO helicopters entered the border area, claiming that five members of Haqqani network have been arrested after the search operation.
A few points:
- I have no confirmation that this raid occurred.
- The two reports mentioned above have not been picked up beyond these two news outlets. Xinhua has a good track record in its reporting from Pakistan, while The Nation, a nationalist newspaper that occasionally reprints Afghan Taliban press releases without context, has a spotty record at best.
- A raid of this nature would not be carried out by regular ISAF forces; this would be conducted by Joint Special Operations Command, the same unit that killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad in northwestern Pakistan on May 2.
- There was a cross-border incident on May 17 in North Waziristan, but that incident involved ISAF Apache attack helicopters, which struck a Pakistani border outpost during an exchange of fire along the border. That did not appear to have been a snatch-and-grab operation, as no transport helicopters were reported to have been in the area.
- In order to carry out such a raid, the US would have to be sure that the chances of capturing a high-value target - at the level of Hakeemullah Mehsud or Siraj Haqqani - are very good. The raid that killed Osama bin Laden has caused serious divisions between the US and Pakistan, and the Pakistani military would come under enormous pressure from the political class and the public if another cross-border raid took place. Just today, Prime Minister Gilani said that "[u]nilateral acts like Abbottabad incident will not be acceptable to us," according to the Daily Times.
- Another unconfirmed report from yesterday claims the Pakistani military is preparing for an operation in North Waziristan, but the operation would be limited to targeting the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan. The Haqqanis and Hafiz Gul Bahadar would not be targeted.
READER COMMENTS: "A US raid captures Taliban in North Waziristan?"
Posted by james at May 30, 2011 4:50 PM ET:
Wow! If this did occur, it will be an interesting summer. For sure Pakistan is going to close the Torkham border crossing for sure
Posted by J,C. at May 30, 2011 5:25 PM ET:
Very interesting. Thank you for reporting. Great news on this Memorial Day if reports are accurate. Now lets send this HVT(s) to Morocco so they can get medieval on him and extract some primo intel!
Posted by Marlin at May 30, 2011 5:54 PM ET:
As Bill mentioned, Prime Minister Gilani said that "[u]nilateral acts like Abbottabad incident will not be acceptable to us,". However, I think that tends to overlook what happened late last week. I understand that India has a biased position in what happens in Pakistan, but their perspective can be illuminating.
What if Pakistan asked for, or approved of a NATO request to perform, a cross-border raid against a group/individuals they didn't consider 'good Taliban'?
The Telegraph (Calcutta): Pak, US seal joint strikes
Posted by kp at May 30, 2011 6:32 PM ET:
One reasonable explanation for the lack of info is that the CIA is doing it properly this time and not revealing a capture until some time after the capture occurred.
Clinton did hand over a list of the super HVT they believe are in Pakistan which I'm sure include the Haqqanis and the Mesud's as well as AZ, MO and other top AQ) so that would incentivize the Pakistanis.
But something is certainly happening (even if this raid is not on the money). I mentioned on the NW Offensive comments THe Nation leaked info about the capture of a group of Mehsuds in Abbotobad being "interviewed" by the CIA. Even if it is from the Nation it's worth considering though not all of their stories are e.g. they also published a claim today that Mullah Baradhar told the CIA where UBL was with CIA memos being found in the UBL compound ... that sounds like a Pakistani CT.
So far only The Nation is reporting the Mesud's capture so treat it with the appropriate grains of salt but it seems rather specific and doesn't look great for the ISI or Army.
I previously mentioned this but it gets even more interesting if you dig into the details.
http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/30-May-2011/3-highvalue-suspects-among-6-interrogated
It's even more interesting if you read up on Abdullah Mehsud. He is ex-GITMO. On release he went back to building up the Waziri Mehsud part of the Taliban. The curious thing (assuming there is only one Abdullah Mehsud ... it's a nom de gurre) is that he was supposed to have been killed (blown himself up) in a Pakistani raid in Zhob, Balochistan on 24 July 2007. During that raid Abdul Rahman Mehsud and Muhammad Azam where also captured. And a report that Baitullah suspected that Abdullah was a double agent. All very odd.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdullah_Mehsud
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/07/pakistani_taliban_co.php
The Qari Zainuddin Mehsud was the subject of "hit" by Baitullah Mesud and was Pakistan's favored leader of the TTP (and would have made the TTP "good Taliban" eschewing suicide attacks in Pakistan).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qari_Zain
The info from their source must have been "arrested in the second week of May". But even more odd the capture of these guys was mentioned back on May 17th in The Nation including the location and the date at which the area was cordoned off (on May 9th). Perhaps it took a couple of days?
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Politics/17-May-2011/Zainuddin-Mehsuds--brother-cousins-arrested
The location is fascinating. Jhangi Syedan (the mountain ... or ridge) is in Jhangi the district which is a irregular shape (perhaps 5km by 6km at largest). Jhangi district is about 3km (2 miles) north of the center of Abbotaobad to the east of the N65 out to the ridge line and includes the northern suburbs of Abbottobad and outlying villages to N and NE. There are quite a few difficult to access hills and ridges to the west. I can see why they headed out there to hide out.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhangi
http://www.logcluster.org/ops/pakistan/maps/roadatlas/unjlcgeographicmap.2006-08-03.0538442610/download?resolution=low
All those arrests are post-UBL raid. I wonder by whom? Army, IB or ISI? But something is going on and Abbotobad seems to be at the center of whatever it is. Weve had Libbi living there, the Indonesian picked up just before the UBL raid (in a joint operation) and now the Mehsuds. Perhaps a source of intel for the recent NW US drone strike(s) against the TTP (something that I'm sure the Pakistani government wants). Or for a future op to round up the Mehsuds.
Or perhaps it's all made up but with two stories a couple of weeks apart I suspect not. The CIA won't say unless they get the Hakimullah Mehsud then we can expect to hear about it from the US government.
Are we on the way to eliminating two potential headaches in Pakistan? Time will tell.
Posted by naresh c. at May 30, 2011 6:43 PM ET:
I suspect, this will not even be given importance in the Pakistani media now. It is becoming embarrassing for the ISI.
ISI tried to play up the drone attacks and the Raymond Davis episode in the Pakistani media, so that they could
get leverage against US by showing 'people's reaction in Pakistan'. Many Pakistani journalists are on ISI payroll. It ended in a shouting match between Pasha and Panetta in Langley. Americans have called the ISI bluff and continued with the drone attacks and also did the Abbottabad raid. Playing up such episodes in the media has back-fired on the ISI. It had no impact on the US policy but Pakistanis are increasingly calling them inept.
Posted by KaneKaizer at May 31, 2011 12:26 AM ET:
Amazing, if it's true. I hope we got both Sirajuddin and Jalaluddin in this. Would be a major blow to the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Although I suppose there are probably a whole lot of possible targets for capture in NW, I'm not sure how many others would be worth the risk to repeat the Abbottabad operation rather than hit them with drone strikes.
Posted by destab at May 31, 2011 1:49 AM ET:
"Hope you enjoyed the flight suckers!!"
Epic use of manpower and resources, that is if this has in fact happened :-)
Nato could quite justifiably, say one thing, and do another. Just like Pakistan.
Posted by Victor at May 31, 2011 4:18 AM ET:
Wonderful news!
ISAF should stop recognizing the Durand Line and treat the bad-lands of Pakistan as fair-game. This nonsense has been going on for a decade. Enough is enough.
Let us take the fight to the enemy's lair.
Posted by Neo at May 31, 2011 4:42 AM ET:
Let’s not all get speculating about something we know very little about. People can’t seem to resist the temptation of filling in all the blanks with their own thoughts. In this case we have nothing but blanks to fill in.
They went across the border and:
http://www.sweetandbitter.com/inside/images/squirrel-thumb.jpg
Posted by b-rock at May 31, 2011 7:21 AM ET:
I'm sure this happens without PAK military knowing the deal. I mean we no the rat lines and have acess to the whole afghan border. Whereas the pakistani side is packed out with territory controlled by the enemy right there within range. OBL raid was deep inside our allies country making it a high profile situation. So creepin in a few miles with your ruck on or in the air to get some mid to high level bastard for some primo intel doesn't surprise me. But I do love hearin about it cause thats what has to be done. Hit em where they feel safe.
Posted by Ben at May 31, 2011 9:00 AM ET:
US wants Pakistan to eliminate the Haqqani network -- which is based in North Waziristan and is one of its fiercest enemies just across the border in Afghanistan -- in any North Waziristan operation. This is the reason that frequent drone strikes are directed against this region. On the other hand, Pakistan’s major problem is rooted in the South Waziristan agency, a safe haven of TTP which has so far played havoc in Pakistan by targeting thousands of innocent civilians and security interests. It is for this reason that while the Pakistani military has launched major offensives in other regions in its unruly tribal belt, it has been hesitant to attack North Waziristan, which could pose the biggest risk. But what a turn of events. A man who was called a saint by Charlie Wilson and was invited to the White House is today a target of US military might. Read more at: http://pksecurity.blogspot.com/2011/05/haqqani-network-story-of-charlie.html
Posted by Render at May 31, 2011 7:01 PM ET:
KP - Mabrother, you're going to make yourself crazy trying to keep track of the names, they're all fake.
Whiteboard and legal pads. Lots of legal pads...
ABU
ARMAGEDDON,
R
Posted by S.J. at June 1, 2011 4:25 PM ET:
Any new information on this? Haven't seen a thing in the mainstream media.
Posted by Bill Roggio at June 2, 2011 6:44 PM ET:
S.J.,
See here: http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2011/06/pakistani_military_denies_nato.php
PakMil denied it. For what that is worth. My opinion is that this did not happen.