4 Threat Matrix: Pakistan deals with 'good' Taliban

Written by Bill Roggio on October 19, 2009 9:07 PM to 4 Threat Matrix

Available online at: http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2009/10/pakistan_deals_with_good_talib.php

While it was clear more than a week ago that the Pakistani Army had sidelined South Taliban commander Mullah Nazir and was in the process of dealing with North Waziristan warlord Hafiz Gul Bahadar, Pakistani intelligence officers and even the top military spokesman have confirmed that the Army has negotiated new truces with Taliban leaders to keep them out of the fight in South Waziristan. From The Associated Press:

Under the terms agreed to about three weeks ago, Taliban renegades Maulvi Nazir and Hafiz Gul Bahadar will stay out of the current fight in parts of South Waziristan controlled by the Pakistani Taliban. They will also allow the army to move through their own lands unimpeded, giving the military additional fronts from which to attack the Taliban.

In exchange, the army will ease patrols and bombings in the lands controlled by Nazir and Bahadar, two Pakistani intelligence officials based in the region told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because revealing their identities would compromise their work.

An army spokesman described the deal as an "understanding" with the men that they would stay neutral. The agreements underscore Pakistan's past practice of targeting only militant groups that attack the government or its forces inside Pakistan.

You didn't need to be a prophet to see this coming. I noted in June that any offensive in Waziristan would exclude Nazir, Bahadar, and the often-ignored Haqqani family.

Remember, more al Qaeda and Taliban leaders have been killed during US airstrikes in tribal areas under Nazir's control than in those of any other Taliban commander. A whopping 27 percent of al Qaeda and Taliban leaders killed during the strikes were killed on Nazir's turf. Another 18 percent were killed on Bahadar's turf.

That makes for almost half (45 percent) of al Qaeda and Taliban leaders killed in the tribal areas operated by Nazir and Bahadar. Compare this to the 18 percent killed on Baitullah/Waliur Rehman Mehsud's turf.

US officials are telling AP that Pakistan's strategy "is not surprising or necessarily worrisome."

"Because the faction loyal to Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud poses the most direct threat to the Pakistani government and army, it is the logical first target, U.S. officials briefed on the offensive said."

One hopes the US government and intelligence officials aren't holding their collective breath waiting for the logical second and third targets - Nazir and Bahadar. These two groups aren't viewed by the Pakistani military as "targets" but as strategic depth. Nazir and Bahadar will be surging troops into Afghanistan for years to come.