1 The Long War Journal: Heavy fighting continues in northwestern Pakistan

Written by Bill Roggio on May 15, 2009 7:11 PM to 1 The Long War Journal

Available online at: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/05/heavy_fighting_conti.php

Click map for full view. Taliban presence, by district and tribal agency, in the Swat region. Information on Taliban presence obtained from open source and derived by The Long War Journal based on the presence of Taliban shadow governments, levels of fighting, and reports from the region. Map created by Bill Raymond for The Long War Journal. Last updated: May 12, 2009.

Heavy fighting has been reported in Pakistan's northwest as the Taliban fighters put up stiff resistance to military advances in Swat, Dir, Buner, and Shangla.

The military continues to report high casualties among the Taliban; more than 175 Taliban fighters have been reported killed in the past two days. The latest figure put Taliban casualties at nearly 1,000 killed during 18 days of fighting. The military is also claiming that only 45 soldiers and other security personnel have been killed during the fighting.

US military and intelligence officials remain skeptical of the high casualty counts. "The Pakistani military says there have been no civilian casualties, but IDPs [internally displaced people] fleeing the area continue to tell stories of the military killing civilians during attacks on vehicles and artillery barrages on villages," a military officer who is tracking the fighting in Pakistan told The Long War Journal. "I think the Pakistani military isn't distinguishing between Taliban fighters and civilians."

"If we're to believe the Pakistani military, nearly one-fifth of the Taliban forces in Swat have been destroyed," an intelligence official who is highly skeptical of the reports said. "Yet the Pakistani military is struggling to advance on Mingora [the main town in Swat which is under Taliban control]. It doesn't add up."

Pakistani forces have been unable to break the Taliban siege of an outpost in Mingora. Security forces have been holed up for eleven days as the military has been unable to send reinforcements to relieve them.

The military claimed its forces have surrounded Mingora and are preparing for the final assault on the town. More than 200,000 people are thought to be trapped in Mingora. The Taliban are said to have built bunkers and fighting positions in the town in preparation.

The Pakistani military maintained that the Taliban are fleeing the battlefield in Swat after suffering heavy defeats. "We have confirmed reports that these Taliban terrorists after shaving off their beards and cutting their hair are fleeing from the area," according to a press release from the Pakistani military.

The military also said it repelled a Taliban assault on a firebase in the town of Peochar, the headquarters of the Swat Taliban. Twenty-one Taliban fighters and eight troops were killed during the fight, Major General Athar Abbas said in a press briefing. Just two days ago, the military air-assaulted newly trained commandos from the Frontier Corps to establish a foothold in Peochar.

In Buner, the military claimed that 13 Taliban fighters, including a leader named Dawa Noor, were killed during the fighting. Noor is said to have facilitated the Taliban invasion of Buner, which sparked the recent battles.

The military said Buner is close to being freed of Taliban control. "Security forces would gain complete control over Sultanwas in 48 hours and Pir Baba would also be cleansed of terrorists soon," according to a report in Dawn.

In Shangla, the military claimed 15 Taliban "hideouts and strongholds" were destroyed and three Taliban fighters were killed. Meanwhile, the military is continuing to launch artillery attacks against Taliban hideouts in Dir, a district it claimed was purged of the Taliban after the first day of fighting.

As the fighting intensifies in Swat, Dir, Buner, and Shangla, Pakistani officials are making conflicting statements about the length of the operation.

Tasnim Ahmad Qureshi, the Minister of State for Interior, claimed the operation would be successfully completed within one month. But Ahmad Mukhtar, the Minister for Defence, said there is no time limit for the operation. "The army is clearing the areas gradually and no timeframe could be given in this regard," he told The Associated Press of Pakistan.

More than 15,000 Pakistani troops are battling an estimated 5,000 Taliban fighters in the northwest. More troops are said to be moving into the theater to block the Taliban from melting away to other districts. But the military has fewer troops in the theater than it had prior to December 2008, when it redeployed forces to the Indian border after the Mumbai assault had raised tensions between Pakistani and India. The number of troops currently deployed in the northwest is inadequate to conduct an effective counterinsurgency program.

Background on the Malakand Accord and fighting in Swat

The government signed the Malakand Accord with Taliban front man Sufi Mohammed, Fazlullah's father-in-law, on February 16 after two years of fighting that put the Taliban in control of the district. During those two years, the military was defeated three separate times while attempting to wrest control from the Taliban. Each defeat put the Taliban in greater control of the district.

The peace agreement called for the end of military operations in Swat, the end of Taliban operations, and the imposition of sharia, or Islamic law, in the districts of Malakand, Swat, Shangla, Buner, Dir, Chitral, and Kohistan. This region encompasses nearly one-third of the Northwest Frontier Province.

But the Taliban violated the agreement immediately after signing it, and proceeded to attack security forces and conduct armed patrols. The military remained silent while the government approved the Taliban's demand for sharia throughout Malakand.

The government ordered a military offensive in Dir and Buner after enormous pressure from the US and other Western governments to stem the Taliban tide pushing toward central Pakistan. The Taliban advanced from Swat into Buner in early April and took over the district in eight days. The move into Buner has put the Taliban within 60 miles of Islamabad and close to several nuclear facilities and the vital Tarbela Dam. The Taliban also have moved into Mansehra and established bases and a training camp in the region.

Pakistani government and military officials have dismissed the Taliban threat to Islamabad and the country's nuclear facilities, but at the end of April, the local Islamabad government ordered troops to deploy in the Margala hills just north of the city to block a Taliban advance, while the Haripur government beefed up security at the Tarbela Dam.